Introduction
The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise (introduced a few years ago) conducted by the author with a view to identifying and monitoring the most compelling of those rookie-eligible minor leaguers who both (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and also (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels — and their attendant midseason lists, as well. Every week during the minor-league season, the author submitted the names of five “compelling” minor leaguers, each name attended by a brief summary of that prospect’s most relevant credentials.

Generally speaking, compelling in this context meant that the prospect in question possessed some combination of the following:

1. Promising statistical indicators; and

2. The ability to play on the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum; and

3. Youth relative to minor-league level; and

4. A curious biographical or statistical profile.

With minor-league regular seasons having all been completed, the author presents here a summary and discussion of the Fringe Five for 2016.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on a midseason list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****

Greg Allen, OF, Cleveland (Profile)
Much like it’s impossible not to think of elephants once the subject of elephants has been broached, it’s nearly impossible to avoid comparing Greg Allen to Mookie Betts once the possibility of a comparison between Greg Allen and Mookie Betts has been suggested. The comparison doesn’t make much sense, of course. Allen is a 23-year-old who’s only recently earned a promotion to Double-A. Betts, meanwhile, is a 23-year-old who’s also a legitimate MVP candidate. The notion that the one resembles the other is absurd. Even after accounting for the similarly elite contact skills and plate discipline, one should avoid saying their names in the same sentence. Or the distinct resemblance in terms of footspeed and athleticism and defensive value — that sort of observation is the province of fools.

Whatever the case, here’s what Allen did over his final week of play: record a 3:3 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 23 plate appearances while also hitting two triples and a home run. With his appearance here today, he finishes second by some margin on the arbitrarily calculated Scoreboard found below.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on a midseason list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****

Yandy Diaz, 3B/OF, Cleveland (Profile)
Last week, August Fagerstrom wrote a piece documenting how, in the absence of Michael Brantley, Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez had performed an admirable impression of the injured outfielder. Here’s how he summarized the similarities between the two players:

Brantley never struck out; Ramirez has never struck out. Brantley ran a league-best 92% contact rate; Ramirez this year is 11th, at 88%. Brantley walked enough to turn his elite batting average into an elite on-base percentage; Ramirez has done the same. Brantley suddenly began hitting for more power than folks had expected; Ramirez has 10 dingers.

Now that Ramirez has become Brantley, that leaves the role of Jose Ramirez available to another member of the Cleveland system. The most likely candidate to fill that vacandy? Yandy Diaz. Like Ramirez, he’s always recorded excellent contact rates. Like Ramirez, he’s always recorded above-average walk rates. Like Ramirez, he’s exhibited more power as he’s ascended through the affiliated ranks. And like Ramirez, he’s demonstrated positional flexibility, as well.

This past week has been representative of Diaz at his best. Over 24 plate appearances for Triple-A Columbus, the 25-year-old Cuban has recorded walk and strikeout rates of 8.3% each while also producing a .273 isolated-power figure on the strength of three doubles and home run — this while making starts at third base, left field, and right field.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on a midseason list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****Daniel Gossett, RHP, Oakland (Profile)
Back in March, ESPN’s Keith Law visited the backfields of Oakland’s complex in Arizona. The result of that visit: a very positive impression of right-hander Daniel Gossett.

From the report he filed:

“He looked great Friday, thanks to a new cutter at 86-89 mph with sharp break downward as much as to the side, along with a fastball at 91-96 mph (sitting 94) that he was blowing by hitters. He showed a solid average changeup at 82-85 mph and a power curveball that was kind of slurvy but hard at 82-83 mph”

Gossett has looked great on a number of other days since that Friday in May, it would appear. Originally selected by Oakland in the second round of the 2014 draft out of Clemson, the 23-year-old right-hander was adequate but not dominant during his first extended tour of affiliated baseball last year. This season, however, has been a revelation for him. After producing nearly a 21-point strikeout- and walk-rate differential over nine starts with High-A Stockton, Gossett has nearly replicated that sort of control of the zone in Double-A. He’s been particularly strong of late, recording a 17:2 strikeout-to-walk rate against 49 batters in two starts (13.0 innings) since last week’s edition of the Five.

Here’s footage of Gossett from June, recording a strikeout with a curve and two fastballs, the latter of which was reported at 93 mph:

Domingo Leyba, SS/2B, Arizona (Profile)
Dawel Lugo, 3B/SS, Arizona (Profile)
Ildemaro Vargas, 2B/SS, Arizona (Profile)
This triumvirate appears here together because (a) they’re all employed by the same organization and because (b) whatever differences they possess as ballplayers, said differences are a function more of degree than type. The type in question: a contact-oriented hitter with usable power who’s also likely to produce net-positive defensive value. Regard, by way of illustration, certain numbers recorded by this triumvirate during the present month:

Ildemaro Vargas has been a fixture among the Five this year. Indeed, with his appearance here, the former indy leaguer settles into third place on the arbitrarily calculated Scoreboard one finds at the bottom of this post. Dawel Lugo, for his part, has previously been included among the Next Five. Originally signed out of the Dominican for $1.3 million by Toronto in 2011, he moved to Arizona last August in the deal that sent Cliff Pennington to the Blue Jays. Signed originally as a shortstop, Lugo has moved to third predominantly — partly in deference to Leyba, it would appear, and partly just because it was inevitable. After producing better-than-average contact and power figures with High-A Visalia, he was promoted in early July to the Southern League, where he’s continued to exhibit almost precisely the same profile. He’s succeeded, at 21, in a league for which the average age is 24.0.

Which, this seems to be an opportune moment upon which to note that the third player being discussed here, Domingo Leyba, is still actually just 20, rendering him one of the youngest field players in all of Double-A. Signed originally by the Tigers out of the Dominican for $400,000 in 2012, Leyba was traded to Arizona (along with Robbie Ray) in the deal that sent Didi Gregorius to New York and Shane Greene to Detroit. After passing the entire 2015 season at High-A Visalia, Leyba started the 2016 campaign there, as well. Whether due to real adjustments or greater physical strength oe randomness, his numbers on contact improved by some measure — and, following a mid-July promotion to Mobile (roughly a week after Lugo’s own promotion), he’s both made more contact and drawn more walks while facing more advanced competition.

Max Schrock, 2B, Oakland (Profile)
Schrock appears here less because of his performance over the last week — although he continued to exhibit his customarily excellent contact skills, etc. — and more because of the Breaking News in which he played a part yesterday. A basic summary of that news: Schrock was sent to Oakland from Washington in exchange for left-handed reliever Marc Rzepczynski. The author’s own towering thoughts on the matter appeared in full at the site here yesterday. With a view to repeating myself, however, here’s a passage from that post, on the matter of major leaguers who possess Schrock’s basic skills:

[E]ver since that mid-winter’s post celebrating Schrock’s virtues, he’s acquitted himself almost perfectly, first recording the lowest strikeout rate among all Low-A batters and, more recently, recording almost the lowest strikeout rate among High-A batters — while also producing a roughly league-average isolated-power figure at both levels. That combination of extreme contact and satisfactory power — combined with the capacity to occupy a place on the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum — is a deceptively valuable one. Players who’ve paired those skills at the major-league level have been almost uniformly helpful.

To find major leaguers who possess Schrock’s basic skill set, I identified all the qualified players over the first half of this decade who recorded an elite strikeout rate (under 11%, in this case, which accounts for roughly 10% of batters each year) and exhibited roughly league-average power (.130-.160 ISO) and produced a positive positional adjustment. The results of that search appear below. (Note: catchers have been excluded because their positional adjustment renders them otherly.)

The Next Five
These are players on whom the author might potentially become fixated.

Greg Allen, OF, Cleveland (Double-A Eastern League)
Austin Davidson, 2B/3B, Washington (High-A Carolina League)
Zack Granite, OF, Minnesota (Double-A Southern League)
Dinelson Lamet, RHP, San Diego (Double-A Texas League)
Pablo Reyes, 2B/SS, Pittsburgh (High-A Florida State League)

Fringe Five Scoreboard
Here is the top-10 list of players who have appeared among either the Fringe Five (FF) or Next Five (NF) so far this season (which is to say, today). For mostly arbitrary reasons, players are assessed three points for each week they’ve appeared among the Fringe Five; a single point, for each week among the Next Five.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on a midseason list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****

Zack Granite, OF, Minnesota (Profile)
There are real indications that Granite is an asset in the field. Per the methodology employed by Baseball Prospectus, for example, he’s saved roughly seven runs defensively this season after recording a 12-run mark in 2015 — in both cases with a positional adjustment right around zero. Per Clay Davenport’s model, meanwhile, Granite has saved 10 runs in center this year — over roughly a half-season’s worth of games. Those minor-league fielding metrics are supported by other signs that Granite both has excellent speed and uses it well. Like how he’s recorded the fourth-most stolen-base runs in all of Double-A, for example. And like how’s produced the third-highest speed score among the 150 qualified batters across that same level.

Nor does this acknowledge Granite’s promise as a hitter, which he continued to exhibit this past week. Regard: in 29 plate appearances since the last edition of the Five, the 23-year-old struck out just once while also drawing two walks and hitting three triples. He continues to possess one of the very lowest strikeout rates across all Double-A.

Here’s footage from one of Granite’s recent triples:

Dinelson Lamet, RHP, San Diego (Profile)
The circumstances of Lamet’s signing were a bit unorthodox. Unlike most top international prospects, who sign as teenagers, Lamet didn’t receive a contract with a major-league organization until about a month before his 22nd birthday, signing with the Padres out of the Dominican for $100,000 at the end of the 2013-14 free-agency window. Lamet began the following year in the Low-A Midwest League and experienced success almost immediately, exhibiting both plus velocity and the capacity to miss bats.

He’s been particularly excellent of late, recording no fewer than seven strikeouts in each of his last five starts for Double-A San Antonio, producing strikeout and walk rates of 37.6% and 6.4%, respectively, in 27.0 innings over that interval. As for the repertoire, it remains encouraging, including a fastball that sat at 92-94 mph for Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser in May — a start during which Lamet appears to have paired an improving changeup with his already useful slider.

Here’s a footage of that slider from Lamet’s most recent start, if one were to have viewed that start through some manner of funhouse mirror:

German Marquez, RHP, Colorado (Profile)
“Who, precisely, is German Marquez?” appears to be a question to which the author should have known the answer before this week — because, for example, the most immediate answer is “a 21-year-old right-hander who’s struck out nearly 30% of the batters he’s faced over his first two Triple-A starts.” Young pitchers who dominate older competition in menacing run environments — these are instantly notable sorts of pitchers.

Here are some other relevant answers to the question of German Marquez’s identity:

• A former international free agent signed by Tampa Bay out of Venezuela in 2011 for $225,000.
• Part of the compensation received by Colorado from the Rays in exchange for Corey Dickerson.
• The owner of a fastball that “touch[es] 98 mph” and also a “plus curveball.”
• The 79th-best prospect according to one version of Chris Mitchell’s newest iteration of KATOH.
• Not German. Seemingly not even a little bit.

Max Schrock, 2B, Washington (Profile)
This represents Schrock’s fifth appearance among the Five proper, moving him up to sixth place on the arbitrarily calculated Scoreboard that appears at the bottom of this post. Regarding the precise implications of that achievement — this will ultimately be for posterity to decide, if and when posterity finds itself with almost nothing else to do. What’s notable about it for the moment, however, is that Schrock has only been eligible for the Five since the end of June, when he was promoted to High-A Potomac.

Schrock’s numbers over the past week weren’t particularly impressive on the surface. In 35 plate appearances, he produced a line of .250/.314/.406 — not substantively different, that, than the Carolina League average of .258/.333/.385. Schrock did it while striking out just twice, however — or in less than 6% of his plate appearances — and adding two doubles and a home run (recording a .156 ISO). This combination of elite contact skill and average-or-better power continues to define Schrock’s minor-league career.

Jaime Schultz, RHP, Tampa Bay (Profile)
While certain players have appeared among the Five more often than reason might dictate — owing to some manner of intoxicating power they exert over the author’s spiritual intellect — the case is quite the opposite for Schultz: he appears here almost against the author’s will. Indeed, there is a pretty solid argument to be made for the improbability of Schutlz’s success — or, at least his success as a starter — in the majors. Like the systematic lack of command he’s exhibited at basically every level, for example. And also like how the Rays have neglected to promote him even once despite the fact that he’s a 25-year-old who’s now recorded over 250 pretty strong innings between Double- and Triple-A.

But here one finds Schultz, nevertheless — in this case, on the strength (generally) of the arm speed he continues to possess and (specifically) of his two most recent starts. Which, here are the three most relevant figures from those starts:

• Innings: 13.2
• Batters: 53
• Strikeouts: 21

For those without a calculator at hand, what one finds here is about a 40% strikeout rate for Schultz. The 9% walk rate that accompanies it also represents a strong mark in the context of Schultz’s pitching oeuvre.

The Next Five
These are players on whom the author might potentially become fixated.

Dawel Lugo, 3B/SS, Arizona (Double-A Southern League)
Nathan Orf, 2B/3B, Milwaukee (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)
Fernando Romero, RHP, Minnesota (High-A Florida State League)
Ildemaro Vargas, 2B/SS, Arizona (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)
Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee (Double-A Southern League)

Fringe Five Scoreboard
Here is the top-10 list of players who have appeared among either the Fringe Five (FF) or Next Five (NF) so far this season (which is to say, today). For mostly arbitrary reasons, players are assessed three points for each week they’ve appeared among the Fringe Five; a single point, for each week among the Next Five.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on a midseason list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****

Greg Allen, OF, Cleveland (Profile)
This represents now Allen’s eighth appearance among the Five proper, the best such mark among all players besides Sherman Johnson, for whom the author has exhibited irrational exuberance and for whom the author will likely continue exhibiting irrational exuberance. As for Allen, on the other hand, most exuberance for him at the moment can be supported reasonably well. Since his promotion to Double-A Akron in late July, his plate-discipline numbers have eroded in the way one would expected of a batter who’s facing more difficult competition. His isolated-power figure has actually increased, however.

Regard, those last two sentences in the form of a table:

A brief examination of the facts reveals that the league-average ISO marks for the (High-A) Carolina and (Double-A) Eastern Leagues are .128 and .129, respectively — basically identical, in other words — which indicates that Allen’s greater number in the latter isn’t merely a product of a more potent run environment.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on a midseason list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****

Greg Allen, OF, Cleveland (Profile)
Two prominent members of the Five, right-handers Junior Guerra and Aaron Wilkerson, have been acquired by the Brewers since that club hired David Stearns as its general manager. Outfielder Greg Allen very nearly became the third. Widely reported to represent one part of Cleveland’s offer to Milwaukee in exchange for catcher Jonathan Lucroy, Allen ultimately remained with Cleveland after the Brewers catcher vetoed the trade.

Allen was recently promoted to Double-A Akron and appears to have adapted quickly to that level. In the 22 plate appearances since last week’s edition of this column, Allen’s recorded a 1:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio plus also a double and two home runs — while making all five of his starts in center field for Akron. He remains second on this season’s haphazardly calculated Fringe Five Scoreboard.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on a midseason list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****

Yandy Diaz, 3B/OF, Cleveland (Profile)
Diaz possesses a number of traits common to many of the prospects who appear in this weekly column. Like above-average contact ability, for example. And like developing power. And like defensive tools that should allow him to produce runs in the field, as well. After exhibiting all those skills at Double-A, he’s continued to exhibit them at Triple-A Columbus, too, after receiving a promotion to that level in mid-May. He exhibited them all even harder this past week, over the course of which he produced a 3:2 walk-to-strikeout ratio and .238 isolated-power mark (on the strength of a triple and home run) in 25 plate appearances.

What else Diaz exhibited this week was an avant-garde approach to the sort of celebration one conducts following a game-winning hit. Indeed, rather than allowing himself to be mobbed by teammates, Diaz instead hoisted the leading member of that mob onto his own shoulder, as the following video footage reveals.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on a midseason list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****Rookie Davis, RHP, Cincinnati (Profile)
Davis was a fixture among the Five last year, tying for 11th on the arbitrarily calculated Scoreboard by way both of an excellent strikeout- and walk-rate profile at High-A and a fastball that sits at 93-95 mph. Traded to Cincinnati this offseason as part of the deal that sent Aroldis Chapman to the Yankees, Davis has stalled a bit — so far as his statistical indicators are concerned, at least. His most recent starts have been encouraging, however: the right-hander has produced a 13:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 39 batters over his last 11.0 innings.

Why he appears here now, though, is because of a different leaderboard on which he’s recently appeared — namely, the secret and proprietary one the author utilizes to track each minor league’s top fringe batters. Through his first 20 plate appearances this year — which also represent the first 20 plate appearances of his career in affiliated baseball — Davis has recorded a walk, two strikeouts, and four extra bases (essentially, extra bases minus hits). That’s a 20% extra-base rate versus only a 10% strikeout rate. For context, between 2011 and -15, only 43 batters produced even a positive differential between extra-base rate and strikeout rate — out of 335 qualified batters total during that interval.

Here are the top-10 batters by that measure between 2011 and 2015:

That’s a collection of basically the league’s top batters. The bottom of the list, meanwhile, includes most of the league’s worst ones. A combination of extra bases and strikeouts serves as a good proxy for success — and each has the benefit of stabilizing long before the typical slash stats.

It’s improbable, of course, that Davis will continue hitting like one of the top batters, literally, of the last half-decade. He needn’t do anything of the sort, of course, to offer some value. Madison Bumgarner and Zack Greinke, for example, have both produced more than three extra wins over the last five years on the basis of their offensive contributions alone — each while batting roughly 50% worse than a league-average hitter.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on a midseason list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****

Chad Green, RHP, New York AL (Profile)
Depending on one’s concerns, there are two distinct ways of viewing Chad Green’s most recent sojourn to the majors leagues. For those who would prefer the Yankees to win games and not lose them in the year 2016, it was likely a dissappointment. Green conceded five home runs in 10.1 innings, allowing eight runs total over the course of two starts. Not great, in other words. For those looking for indications of Green’s future success, however, it was mostly encouraging. Because regard: against 40 batters, Green recorded 14 strikeouts and merely two walks (rates of 35.0% and 5.0%, respectively) and an average fastball velocity of 95 mph — and, in such a small sample, those are the only numbers likely to reveal anything.

Whatever the case, Green was dispatched back to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, where he promptly cobbled together a dominant performance, recording an 8:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio and conceding a single hit against 25 batters over 8.0 scoreless innings on Thursday (box).

Here’s footage from one of Green’s recent major-league starts — not of him allowing home runs, but rather recording strikeouts by means of a cutter at 92 mph and four-seamer at 95.

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