The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on a midseason list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****

Greg Allen, OF, Cleveland (Profile)
Much like it’s impossible not to think of elephants once the subject of elephants has been broached, it’s nearly impossible to avoid comparing Greg Allen to Mookie Betts once the possibility of a comparison between Greg Allen and Mookie Betts has been suggested. The comparison doesn’t make much sense, of course. Allen is a 23-year-old who’s only recently earned a promotion to Double-A. Betts, meanwhile, is a 23-year-old who’s also a legitimate MVP candidate. The notion that the one resembles the other is absurd. Even after accounting for the similarly elite contact skills and plate discipline, one should avoid saying their names in the same sentence. Or the distinct resemblance in terms of footspeed and athleticism and defensive value — that sort of observation is the province of fools.

Whatever the case, here’s what Allen did over his final week of play: record a 3:3 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 23 plate appearances while also hitting two triples and a home run. With his appearance here today, he finishes second by some margin on the arbitrarily calculated Scoreboard found below.

Corey Ray, RHP, Kansas City (Profile)
In episode two of season seven of the ITV detective program Foyle’s War, detective chief superintendent Christopher Foyle realizes that there are two, and not just one, Evelyn Greene for whom he’s searching. How the episode ends is a mystery — to the author, at least, who was compelled to stop it at the halfway point in order to write this dumb post. The resolution is immaterial, however, because the premise is sufficiently relevant for this brief entry. Because, while this brief entry concerns Corey Ray, it’s important to be clear which Corey Ray that is.

This Corey Ray isn’t a product of the University of Louisville who plays outfield and was selected by Milwaukee with the fifth pick of the most recent draft. Rather, this Corey Ray was selected in the fifth round of the 2014 draft out of Texas A&M and, since then, has become the author of three largely pedestrian seasons. Here’s what he’s done recently, though: produced strikeout and walk rates of 37.3% and 6.0%, respectively, over his final three starts for High-A Wilmington, a total of 17.0 innings.

As for the arm speed, this is also encouraging. Generally reported in the low 90s, a recent account cites Ray’s fastball as sitting at 94-97. Either range is reasonable, however, and suggests Ray doesn’t benefit from mere deception.

Jordan Stephens, RHP, Chicago AL (Profile)
This actually isn’t Stephens’ first appearance in a fringe-themed post at this site. Last June, the author attempted to perform an exercise similar to the present one, except with college players eligible for the amateur draft. While players who’ve appeared on a number of top-prospects lists are omitted for consideration from this weekly post, the constraints of that draft-related exercise were naturally different. In that case, a “fringe” prospect was any draft-eligible player absent from Kiley McDaniel’s draft rankings — which document contained roughly 300, or about 10 rounds’ worth, of names. Stephens, a product of Rice, was ultimately selected in the fifth round by the White Sox.

As noted in that piece from last year, Stephens was unusual among the “fringe” draft prospects in that he’d both (a) produced encouraging statistical indicators and (b) exhibited actual physical tools. Mostly, health was the issue for him. Fortunately, it hasn’t been an issue in his year and a half as a professional — and both the encouraging indicators and physical tools have survived. Regard: the 23-year-old Stephens produced the second-best strikeout- and walk-rate differential (K-BB%) among all qualified pitchers at High-A. By all accounts, his fastball — cited as a plus pitch in multiple reports — remains an asset.

Stephens was particularly effective over his final three starts of the regular season, producing strikeout and walk rates of 50.0% and 10.3%, respectively, in 15.0 innings over that interval.

Ildemaro Vargas, 2B/SS, Arizona (Profile)
Last year, after joing the Diamondbacks from indy ball, Vargas produced the second-lowest strikeout rate among affiliated hitters who also recorded 300 plate appearances. Whatever his weaknesses, the combination of that elite contact ability and his capacity to play the infield rendered him notable. But there was a caveat, as well: Vargas was in the midst of his age-23 season, facing (considerably younger) Low-A talent. He was likely taking advantage of less refined competition.

This year, Vargas produced the third-lowest strikeout rate among affiliated hitters who also recorded 300 plate appearances. So, roughly the same. What wasn’t the same, however was his experience relative to his opponents’. Because, regard: Vargas began the year by skipping High-A altogether. Then he recorded 350 pretty excellent plate appearances for Double-A Mobile. Then he recorded 200-plus arguably better plate appearances for Triple-A Reno. Now he’s a 25-year-old making elite contact against other 25-year-olds (or 26-year-olds, to be precise). His last week was emblematic of his whole season. Over 20 plate appearances, he produced a 2:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio and added three doubles. He made three starts at second and one at short. He’s very likely an average major-league player.

Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee (Profile)
At some level, it would be advantageous were Woodruff not to become a major-league regular. Owing to a peculiar trait of this site’s player-linking utility, his name is confused with former Angels prospect Brandon Wood‘s. As a result, one is compelled to manually insert a link to Brandon Woodruff’s player profile whenever attempting to invoke him (like just this moment). For similar reasons, it’s equally tiresome when authoring posts about retired left-hander Johan Santana and current outfielder J.D. Martinez and, more recently, San Diego reliever Ryan Buchter. The result, of course, is merely an inconvenience — and not a full-on Job-like trial. Still, it’s annoying.

Unfortunately, there are indications Woodruff will become a major-league regular. After entering the season as a player, in Dan Farnsworth’s words, whose “numbers don’t do his talent justice,” he has proceeded to produce some of the best numbers in the minors. Literally. Among affiliated pitchers who recorded at least 100 innings this year, Woodruff’s strikeout- and walk-rate differential (K-BB%) was 10th best. He was at his most effective over this final three starts of the regular season, producing strikeout and walk rates of 33.8% and 6.5%, respectively — and allowing just a single run — over 22.0 innings.

The Next Five
These are players on whom the author might potentially become fixated.

Dean Deetz, RHP, Houston (Double-A Texas League)
Joan Gregorio, RHP, San Francisco (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)
Tim Locastro, 2B/SS, Los Angeles NL (Double-A Texas League)
Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Philadelphia (Double-A Eastern League)
Max Schrock, 2B, Oakland (Double-A Texas League)

Fringe Five Scoreboard
Here is the top-10 list of players who have appeared among either the Fringe Five (FF) or Next Five (NF) so far this season (which is to say, today). For mostly arbitrary reasons, players are assessed three points for each week they’ve appeared among the Fringe Five; a single point, for each week among the Next Five.