Cleveland is an incredibly difficult organization to rank. The system is one of the weakest among the 30 MLB organizations and a lot of the talent is fairly new, having been acquired in the past few seasons. Trades (such as the questionable one for Colorado’s faltering ace Ubaldo Jimenez) and poor draft decisions have led to limited depth – especially in the upper levels of the system. To be fair, the big league club has also enjoyed the graduations of some key talents, such as Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis (both in 2011), and Carlos Santana (2010). The organization has filled some gaps with clever talent acquisitions via the international market. Out of all 30 organizations Cleveland had the biggest overhaul in Top 10 lists between 2010-11 and 2011-12 with Nick Hagadone as the only player that appears on both lists.

1. Francisco Lindor, SS
BORN: Nov. 14, 1993
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round, Florida HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

Lindor was considered by many to be the top shortstop prospect in the 2011 draft and the Indians organization eagerly grabbed him up with the eighth overall selection. He offers strong projection with the bat despite his slender frame. Plus bat speed helps him generate surprising power for his size and it’s easy for scouts to project 20 home run power if he fills out as expected. The Puerto Rico native, who attended high school in Florida, is also a solid defender with good fundamentals for his skill level. He has sure hands, good actions and a quick first step that helps his average speed play up, which gives him above-average range. Lindor will play the entire 2012 season at the age of 18 so the organization may be cautious with him and start him out in extended spring training. He’s expected to reach low-A ball at some point during the coming year.

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I have never cared much for the distinction of “Quad-A” — the thought that some players can be so precipitously worse just one rung higher in the organization seems somehow absurd or narrow-focused to me. But nonetheless, we have players such as Matt LaPorta who seem to fit the cliched mold all too well.

LaPorta — unlike most players designated Quad-A — was at one time a highly touted prospect and a first round draft pick. Though, as my colleague Dan Wade noted, LaPorta’s status has not led to success — rather, it has led to a likely exercising of his minor league option in 2012.

The Cleveland Indians are somewhat flush with major-league ready first baseman — though not necessarily All-Star first basemen (the glove-first Casey Kotchman; the positionless Russ Canzler; the not-quite-a-catcher Carlos Santana). Meanwhile, LaPorta has assembled nearly the same number of plate appearances in the majors (1008) as in the minors (1046), but has played nothing like his minor league self.

At this point, the question is not whether the Indians will send LaPorta to Triple-A — but rather will it do him any good?
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In 2008, the Milwaukee Brewers were one of the feel-good stories of the baseball season. They ended a 26-year postseason drought and brought October baseball back to the land of beer and cheese.

Milwaukee also made headlines when they orchestrated the blockbuster trade of the summer. To augment a starting rotation that lost young right-hander Yovani Gallardo earlier in the year to a torn ACL which he sustained in a freak injury against the Chicago Cubs, the Brewers sent first baseman Matt LaPorta, center fielder Michael Brantley, left-hander Zach Jackson, and right-handed reliever Rob Bryson to Cleveland in order to acquire their ace, CC Sabathia.

At the time, the four-prospect package was largely considered a steep price to pay for a half-year rental. Over three years later, though, how does that trade look?

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On Monday morning, I wrote an article that revealed the top five teams in Major League Baseball at drafting and developing talent for their big league club over the past decade, starting with the 2002 Draft.

Several people commented that they wished to see the entire list of teams, ranked by total accumulated WAR and also including average WAR per homegrown player. Here is the entire league:

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It is a simple question.

What is sabermetrics?

Not the history of it, but what is it, right now? What is, in our nerdiest of lingoes, its derivative? Where is it pointing? What does it do?

Last Tuesday I created no little stir when I listed the 2012 saber teams, delineating them according to their perceived embrace of modern sabermetrics.

Today, I recognize I needed to take a step back and first define sabermetrics, because it became obvious quickly I did not have the same definition at heart as some of the readers and protesters who gathered outside my apartment.

I believe, and this is my belief — as researcher and a linguist — that sabermetrics is not statistics. The term itself has come to — or needs to — describe more than just on-base percentage, weighted runs created plus, fielding independent pitching, and wins above replacement.

Sabermetrics is the advanced study of baseball, not the burying of one’s head in numbers.
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Silly monkey, BRAINS ARE FOR ZOMBIES.

Casey Kotchman is in many ways a man without a home — a player equal parts under-appreciated and over-valued, who irks both old and new schools at the same time. Old school analysts say his defense is amazing, but they cannot quantify it, and in 2011, they claimed his cleared vision meant he finally learned how to aim the ball “where they ain’t,” but he’s still a .268 hitter with little power. The new school says he’s worth about 7.6 runs per season defensively, but worth ~1.1 WAR per 600 PAs — not good — and his BABIP was high 2011, so he should not be able to repeat his success.

Despite his inability to build a consistent following of fans in the baseball outsiders communities, Kotchman seems to have some insider communities very much interested in him, as Tom Tango points out:

Kotchman’s last four teams: Redsox, Mariners, Rays, Indians. Can we say that a team that signs Kotchman is saber-leaning?

Indeed, after spending five and a half seasons on the Angels’ and Braves’ rosters, Kotchman has begun to shuffle around with the Nerdz, most recently signing with the Cleveland Indians. It makes sense too — Kotchman’s lack of power keeps him cheap, and his strong defense keeps him amorphous for the old school teams, while the new schools might have different valuations on Kotchman, they can at least quantify his contributions and better know how he fits.

Then, on Monday, the Houston Astros signed Justin Ruggiano, long-time Tampa Bay Rays outfielder who was never good enough to stick on the Rays’ roster, but who possesses strong defensive chops and above average patience. His lack of power and ~.290 batting average, however, must make him a mystery — or at least an undesirable asset — to the old school teams.

Upon Ruggiano signing with the Astros, a once highly old school team, my reaction was all: “Welp, that’s one more team to compete with” — and then it occurred to me! No only have the Astros entered the realm of, so to speak, saber-minded organizations, but so have the long-backward Chicago Cubs.

Suddenly the league looks very different.

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After remaining relatively quiet all off-season, the Cleveland Indians have been busy in recent days. They signed Casey Kotchman to a one-year contract yesterday, and it appears they’re working away at locking up their young shortstop:

SS Asdrubal Cabrera in town and talking multiyear deal with #Indians. GM Chris Antonetti says deal must align “in value and term.”

— paul hoynes (@hoynsie) February 3, 2012

Asdrubal Cabrera is a bit of an enigma. It’s not that he’s a dark and mysterious character — although this leaves some room for debate — but that his performance over the past few years makes him a difficult player to project. He had a down year in 2010 after breaking his arm early in the season, but he was a +3 win player in both 2011 and 2009. In both of those years, though, there were some questionable spikes in his stats; his 2009 performance was helped along by an unsustainable .360 BABIP, and his 2011 “breakout” was fueled by a  dramatic increase in his homerun rate (13.3% HR/FB).

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It’s no secret that the Indians have been disappointed in Matt LaPorta’s production and development, and today they took a step towards replacing him at first base. Jon Heyman reports that Cleveland will sign Casey Kotchman to what I presume is a one- or two-year contract.

Update: Paul Hoynes says it’s a one-year deal worth $3 million plus incentives.

Kotchman has been the butt of many jokes over the last few seasons, which tends to happen when you’re first baseman that musters just a .304 wOBA and an 84 wRC+ with a measly .125 ISO in nearly 1,500 plate appearances across a three-year stretch like Kotchman did from 2008-2010. He did give the Rays 563 quality plate appearances last season — .351 wOBA and a 125 wRC+ — after coming up in April to replace the suddenly retired Manny Ramirez. That’s the Kotchman the Tribe hope they agreed to sign this afternoon.

As you can see in the graph below, there has been no significant change in the first baseman’s batted ball profile over the last few seasons…

There’s nothing outrageous there that would support his .333 BABIP last season compared to the .277 mark he put up from 2004-2010. I don’t want to take the easy way out and call it good luck, but it is something to be mindful of going forward. It’s possible that many of those ground balls that skirted through the turf infield in Tropicana Field will be slowed down enough by natural grass that fielders will be able to make a play on them, which would do a number on his BABIP and production. For what it’s worth, Kotchman had a .250 BABIP on ground balls last year compared to the .237 league average and his .194 career mark. He also had an eye procedure last winter, which is definitely worth mentioning.

Kotchman is a very strong gloveman at first base, so he will improve Cleveland’s defense. He’ll also make their lineup even more left-handed than it already is, with switch-hitters Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera representing the team’s only everyday threats from the right side. That can be problematic for a team trying to make a run at a division title, and I can’t help but think Derrek Lee might have been a better fit. Assuming the money isn’t outrageous — and there’s no reason to think it will be — the Indians have upgraded their defense and potentially their offense if the 28-year-old made real improvement last season.

There’s something strangely fitting about the fact that both Russ Canzler and Dan Johnson have found new homes in the last 24 hours. Canzler was traded yesterday from the Rays to the Indians for cash considerations, and Johnson signed a minor-league deal with the White Sox this afternoon. This is despite the fact that the Rays — those masters of market inefficiencies; those buy-low deal hounds — were recently searching for a first baseman, but decided to sign an aging Carlos Pena for $7 million rather than take a cheap gamble on either player.

On the surface, it looks odd that the Rays let Canzler go without giving him a try at first. After all, Canzler was named the International League (Triple-A) MVP last season after hitting 18 home runs and posting a .410 wOBA. He may have been slightly old for the league, but it’s not like he was pushing 30; Canzler was 25-years-old last season. So what gives? Did the Rays miss out on some cheap, high upside talent? Free Russ Canzler!

This discussion touches upon a larger debate, though: do Quad-A players exist? Can a player mash in Triple-A, but not be able to make the adjustments to be a successful player in the majors?

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The relief market is a hotbed for unusual activity during the off-season. This winter, the Philadelphia Phillies got the party started with its signing of Jonathan Papelbon to a four-year, $50 million contract. Since then, Philadelphia’s former closer, Ryan Madson, signed a one-year deal worth around $8 million with the Cincinnati Reds — and their former, former closer, Brad Lidge, just inked a one-year, $1 million agreement with the Washington Nationals.

In addition to that trio, Matt Capps received a $4.75 million salary to return to the Minnesota Twins, and Fernando Rodney got $2 million from the budget-conscious Tampa Bay Rays. But one of the few relievers who could not find guaranteed millions – or even a guaranteed contract – was Dan Wheeler, who signed a minor league contract with the Cleveland Indians.

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