Archive for Hot Stove 2011

Cody Ross To Boston

After the magic that was the 2010 postseason, the Giants and their fans can be forgiven for disappointment in Cody Ross’s 2011 performance. Ross only managed 14 home runs and a .405 slugging percentage in 121 games in San Francisco after slugging .686 with five homers in 14 games during the Giants’ run to the 2010 World Series. Everybody knew the clock would eventually strike midnight, however, and in the end the Ross the Giants ended up with was very similar to the Ross the Marlins had no problem giving away for free on a waiver claim: a very average outfielder.

Unsurprisingly, then, the market around Cody Ross collapsed as better options filled rosters throughout the winter. The 31-year-old finally found a home Monday, as Ross and the Red Sox agreed to a one-year, $3 million deal.

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Scutaro a Perfect Fit for Rockies

The Rockies have had a confusing offseason, but there should be no confusion on their latest move, which was to acquire infielder Marco Scutaro from the Red Sox. The move, a salary dump for the Red Sox, is a clear win for Colorado.

Any devoted Rockies follower will tell you that the Rox have had their fair share of turnover at the keystone. The elder Eric Young was a mainstay for a few years, and Clint Barmes held things down for a few years after Troy Tulowitzki bumped him off of shortstop, but otherwise it has been a revolving door. A revolving door is no problem if the players coming through are good ones, but that has not been the case in Colorado. Collectively, Rockies’ second basemen have been worth three wins in a season once in 19 tries. And while a part-time player can quickly drag an overall position WAR down in a short amount of time, their individual leaderboard tells a very similar story:

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Scutaro Deal Gives Red Sox Odd SS Platoon

Decent shortstops are hard to come by, but the Red Sox have now traded away two potential starters this offseason. After trading Jed Lowrie to the Astros for Mark Melancon, Ben Cherington and Company completed a deal this weekend to send Marco Scutaro to the Rockies for Clayton Mortensen and $6 million in salary relief. In each case the Red Sox dealt from depth to solidify perceived weaknesses. Melancon improves the Papelbon-less bullpen, and the $6 million previously due to Scutaro can now be reallocated to the starting rotation.

Given the issues the Red Sox faced with their rotation last year, the newly available money can go a long way towards signing Roy Oswalt or acquiring Wandy Rodriguez. Last season, the Red Sox offense and bullpen were statistical bests in the American League, but the overall rotation struggled in both the performance and health departments. Jon Lester and Josh Beckett pitched well, but Clay Buchholz couldn’t stay on the mound, and the rest of the rotation was a mess. All told, the Red Sox rotation posted the highest walk rate in the league and finished in the bottom third in ERA, FIP and SIERA.

Without much money available to improve the starting staff, the Sox turned to both Aaron Cook and Vicente Padilla on minor league deals, hoping to recreate the Bartolo Colon/Freddy Garcia magic the Yankees experienced. Now, the Red Sox have the capability of acquiring someone who can offer a greater level of assurance in improving the rotation. But it doesn’t come without a cost, as the Sox are now forced to use a platoon of Nick Punto and Mike Aviles at the most important position in the infield.

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A Cougar Returns

Remember that show Cougar Town? Yeah, uh, me neither. I mean, I might have watched it once, and it was awful. Just awful. I mean, it was the Houston Astros of television programs. They canceled it, right? No? Great, what will the titans of the television industry think of next? A show starring Chelsea Handler’s mom and Laura “So In-Demand I Had To Stay On That 70s Show Until the Bitter End With Seth Meyers’ Even Less Talented Brother As My Love Interest” Prepon with her hair dyed blonde?

Okay, I apologize, that is just cruel… to the Astros. Don’t get me wrong — the Astros are in a bad place. But at least they have the prospect of getting out of it… eventually. But just when you thought things could not get worse for Houston, catcher Jason Castro, who missed the entire 2011 season with knee surgery, had to have surgery to repair damage done to his foot during the Arizona Fall League.

That is likely why the Astros have signed former Arizona and Pittsburgh catcher Chris Snyder to a one-year deal (with a mutual option — they must really admire the Kansas City model). Did you know that Snyder went to the University of Houston, whose mascot is a Cougar? What a coincidence, it fits right in with this clever introduction!

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Carlos Pena Returns to the Trop

When Carlos Pena had his breakout season for Tampa Bay in 2007, it wasn’t as a member of the Rays. Pena was instead just another of the hapless Devil Rays, slogging along in soulless Tropicana Field. Friday, Carlos Pena signed a one-year, $7.25 million contract to return to Tampa Bay and Tropicana Field, where the Rays couldn’t possibly be a more different team than when he first arrived.

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Red Sox Need Outfield Help

The end of the 2011 season does not seem to have ended the Red Sox spell of misfortune as two-thirds of their projected everyday lineup outfield is now out with injury. It was reported earlier this offseason that rightfielder Ryan Kalish would be out until at least June as he recovers from shoulder surgery. This week came that Carl Crawford will likely miss the start of the regular season due to wrist surgery. Crawford is not expected to miss a lot of playing time, but wrist injuries can linger and sap a player’s bat control for an extended period of time. That leaves the Red Sox with exactly 3 outfielders who (a) are on the 40-man roster, (b) have played an inning in MLB, and (c) project to be healthy on opening day.

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The Post-Injury Jeff Francis and DIPS

It’s probably the Canadian in me talking, but I have always been a Jeff Francis fan. The University of British Columbia product was selected 9th overall by the Colorado Rockies in the famed Moneyball draft, and rewarded the team with 11.8 WAR in his first five big league seasons before succumbing to the injury bug. Now, the 31 year old finds himself without a job a month before spring training despite posting 4.6 WAR over the last two seasons.

Why is he unemployed? Well, the 85 MPH fastball has something to do with it, but so does the fact that he’s traditionally been a guy whose results haven’t matched his peripherals. Other than his 36.2 inning cup of coffee in 2004, only once in his career has his ERA been lower than his FIP. For his career, his FIP is a respectful 4.40, but his ERA is 4.78, a 38 point gap that helps shed light on the perception of Francis as a guy you only want on the hill if you have no other options. The last two seasons have been especially brutal, with an ERA almost a full run higher than his FIP – the main culprit being, as usual, a .317 BABIP. His inflated hit rate has been fueled in part by a significant drop in his infield fly rate, which has hovered at close to 6% over the last two years after being over 10% early in his career.

There is nothing overly unusual about a pitcher posting back-to-back seasons with BABIP’s of .320 and .316, or having a career mark of .310. These numbers are well within the expected random variation of our sample of major league pitchers. However, Francis has changed quite a bit since his early days in Colorado when he was throwing 89-92 MPH. He is now down in the 85 MPH range, and is now a full-blown pitch to contact guy. Last season, only 16.20% of Francis’ plate appearances ended in a walk or strikeout, ranking him 93rd out of 94 qualified pitchers. I decided to do some digging to see if just maybe these two factors might be related.

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Yu Darvish Set To Become A Ranger

One month ago, the Rangers were awarded the rights to negotiate with Yu Darvish for a posting fee of $51.7 million. Surely, the announcements of the details of the contract will not come until right at the 5:00 PM Eastern Time deadline, but all indications as of now point to the Rangers reaching a six-year deal with the Japanese phenom (as reported by CBS’s Jon Heyman).

Although there are occasions where negotiations break down between Japanese imports and their American clubs — Hisashi Iwakuma with Oakland last year, for example — the big names have always agreed to a contract by the one-month deadline. For both the Rangers and for Darvish, there was simply too much at stake not to reach a middle ground.

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Guaranteed Panda

A year ago, the San Francisco Giants were coming off a shocking World Series victory. A curious side story was that the 2010 season was disappointing on an individual level for their young third baseman Pablo Sandoval, who ended up getting benched in the playoffs to make room for the likes of Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria. A post-World Series picture of Sandoval settling down in front of a massive ice cream sundae did little to ease concerns about his weight issues. With the leverage of having won the Series “without him,” the team basically ordered him to get his conditioning under control.

Fast forward to this week: while the Giants failed to make the 2011 playoffs, Sandoval himself is coming off of a great “bounce back” season. The same team that seemed to have so many concerns about Sandoval just a year ago, bought out his arbitration years with a three-year, $17.15 million contract. Are the Giants getting a steal or taking on risk unnecessarily?

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Joe Saunders, Mistakes & Hometown Discounts

After an offseason of three-year contract demands and reported interest from every team in need of a pitcher, Joe Saunders wound up re-signing with the Diamondbacks yesterday, taking a one-year contract worth $6 million. He’ll presumably step into the rotation alongside Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Trevor Cahill, and Josh Collmenter while Tyler Skaggs, Trevor Bauer, and others bide their time in the minors. The contract itself is appropriate for Saunders — 116 FIP- in 97 starts and 601.1 IP over the last three years — from the team’s perspective, but the player ended up making a pretty egregious error.

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