I have some concerns over the future of the Marlins organization. Management has given fans a reason to get excited with the recent signings of veterans Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle. What the club has not done, though, is focus on rebuilding from within at the same time. The Marlins organization has some interesting names but the depth is thin because of a lack of focus with both signing players on the international market and with acquiring high-ceiling talent through the amateur draft. The above signing of Reyes will also cost the Marlins a second round draft pick in 2012.

1. Christian Yelich, OF/1B
BORN: Dec. 5, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 4th

Yelich was the Marlins’ first round pick in 2010 and he started to blossom into a potential star player in ’11 during his first full season in the minors. Just 20 years old, he posted a wRC+ of 146 in 122 games at the low-A level thanks to a full-field approach with the bat. He projects to hit for both average and power. His frame suggests at future strength that could lead to 20-25 home runs once he matures as a hitter and learns to pull the appropriate pitches. Originally a first baseman, Yelich has taken well to the outfield, playing both left and center field. His arm strength is a little below average so left will likely be his permanent home and his above-average speed will allow him to provide excellent range. Yelich could eventually make Logan Morrison, another first-to-left conversion project, expendable. For now, though, he’ll move up to high-A ball but could see double-A by the end of the season.

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Athletes that I would call both “fast” and “huge” are relatively common in football. I will try not to embarrass myself by talking about football at length, but take a guy like the 49ers’ Vernon Davis — a very fast tight end who weighs around 250 pounds. Some baseball players are that heavy and heavier, but they are not known as “fast” players. That is obviously connected to the different skills required for “game speed” in the respective sports.

Like many fans, I find “big-boned” baseball players quite entertaining. For example, Adrian Gonzalez and Pablo Sandoval are both wonderful players. Overall, Adrian Gonzalez is probably superior, objectively speaking. However, subjectively, I would much rather watch Pablo Sandoval, and I would be lying if I said that his “body type” had nothing to do with it.

While special events sometimes happen, the big guys in baseball rarely pull off “speed moves,” especially the main move — the stolen base. Leaving the (obvious and no-so-obvious) reasons for this aside, I thought it would be fun to look at the the top stolen base seasons by “big-boned” players in baseball history.

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Spring Training is dangerously close these days, and once it starts, so do the position battles. All around Florida and Arizona you’ll see players fighting to win that last bullpen spot, platoon outfield job, rotation spot, etc. Many players who lose these battles will simply report back to Triple-A and work to get back to the show at some point, but others don’t have that option. They’re quite literally out of options.

To make a long story short, an out of options player is someone who has used up all three of their minor league options, meaning they were sent to the minors for at least 20 days in three different seasons. Once a player is out of options, he can’t be sent to the minors without first clearing waivers. As you probably know, a few of these guys will end up being traded over the next six weeks as their club looks to get some kind of return rather than lose them on the waiver wire for nothing.

MLB Trade Rumors put together a comprehensive list of this year’s out of options players, so let’s sort through the names to find some players that are useful, but just not to their current teams.

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For a catcher, the “tools of ignorance” is an endearing term used to sum up the challenges of the position in a neat and tidy phrase. Over the past three seasons, scouting well over 100 games and a few hundred prospects has led me to develop my own “tools of magnificence” as a handful of players have displayed 80-grade tools which are now seared into my scouting conscious.

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Just three days after Yoenis Cespedes toured their new ballpark, the Miami Marlins have reportedly offered the 26-year-old outfielder a contract.

The contract is allegedly for six years, but the financial details are shaky at this time. While the initial report suggested the deal was worth $40 million, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald is hearing the Marlins offered less money. Unless the Marlins have offered significantly less than $40 million, Cespedes’ contract will likely break the record for Cuban-born players. That slot is currently held by Aroldis Chapman, who received a six year, $30.25 million contract from the Cincinnati Reds.

Signing Cespedes would be a huge gain for the Marlins, who currently lack a true center fielder on their roster. The Chris Coghlan experiment was a disaster last season, causing the Marlins to turn to Emilio Bonifacio. While Bonifacio experienced a breakout season, much of his success was a result for a .372 BABIP, which was the second highest BABIP among qualified hitters last season. His defense has been acceptable in the outfield over his career, but he posted a -2.6 UZR in center this past season.

We don’t know what kind of defense Cespedes will play in center, but we have already taken our best guess at what his bat will produce. Jack Moore noted that Cespedes was probably less of a risk than other Cuban-born players, and Clay Davenport projected Cespedes’ stats based on his performance in the Cuban league. Based on Davenport’s research, Cespedes should hit .260/.325/.457 in the majors. Those numbers would put him in line with the average center fielder, who hit .261/.325/.406 this past season. What sets Cespedes apart from the typical center fielder is his power potential. Few center fielders are capable of hitting 20+ home runs each season. Even if Cespedes is a slightly below-average defender, his bat should make him the best option to play center on the Marlins.

While Cespedes is likely the Marlins’ best option in center, it’s unclear how soon he’ll be able to make an impact in the majors. At 26, he’s much older than the typical prospect, but he’ll likely need time to adjust in the minors before he’s ready to take on major league pitchers. Cespedes will already have to adjust to numerous lifestyle changes once he begins his professional career in the US, which, I would imagine, can be very stressful. If the Marlins promote Cespedes before he’s ready and he struggles, that’s one more thing Cespedes will have to worry about.

Still, Cespedes’ potential makes him an intriguing candidate for most major league teams. The Marlins, in particular, are in need of a center fielder, and Cespedes looks like an ideal fit for them. Even if he’s not with the team initially, he’ll definitely make an impact at some point this season. The race for the NL crown should be tight this season, and signing Cespedes strengthens the Marlins’ chances to contend for the division.

It is a simple question.

What is sabermetrics?

Not the history of it, but what is it, right now? What is, in our nerdiest of lingoes, its derivative? Where is it pointing? What does it do?

Last Tuesday I created no little stir when I listed the 2012 saber teams, delineating them according to their perceived embrace of modern sabermetrics.

Today, I recognize I needed to take a step back and first define sabermetrics, because it became obvious quickly I did not have the same definition at heart as some of the readers and protesters who gathered outside my apartment.

I believe, and this is my belief — as researcher and a linguist — that sabermetrics is not statistics. The term itself has come to — or needs to — describe more than just on-base percentage, weighted runs created plus, fielding independent pitching, and wins above replacement.

Sabermetrics is the advanced study of baseball, not the burying of one’s head in numbers.
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Silly monkey, BRAINS ARE FOR ZOMBIES.

Casey Kotchman is in many ways a man without a home — a player equal parts under-appreciated and over-valued, who irks both old and new schools at the same time. Old school analysts say his defense is amazing, but they cannot quantify it, and in 2011, they claimed his cleared vision meant he finally learned how to aim the ball “where they ain’t,” but he’s still a .268 hitter with little power. The new school says he’s worth about 7.6 runs per season defensively, but worth ~1.1 WAR per 600 PAs — not good — and his BABIP was high 2011, so he should not be able to repeat his success.

Despite his inability to build a consistent following of fans in the baseball outsiders communities, Kotchman seems to have some insider communities very much interested in him, as Tom Tango points out:

Kotchman’s last four teams: Redsox, Mariners, Rays, Indians. Can we say that a team that signs Kotchman is saber-leaning?

Indeed, after spending five and a half seasons on the Angels’ and Braves’ rosters, Kotchman has begun to shuffle around with the Nerdz, most recently signing with the Cleveland Indians. It makes sense too — Kotchman’s lack of power keeps him cheap, and his strong defense keeps him amorphous for the old school teams, while the new schools might have different valuations on Kotchman, they can at least quantify his contributions and better know how he fits.

Then, on Monday, the Houston Astros signed Justin Ruggiano, long-time Tampa Bay Rays outfielder who was never good enough to stick on the Rays’ roster, but who possesses strong defensive chops and above average patience. His lack of power and ~.290 batting average, however, must make him a mystery — or at least an undesirable asset — to the old school teams.

Upon Ruggiano signing with the Astros, a once highly old school team, my reaction was all: “Welp, that’s one more team to compete with” — and then it occurred to me! No only have the Astros entered the realm of, so to speak, saber-minded organizations, but so have the long-backward Chicago Cubs.

Suddenly the league looks very different.

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According to Diario Libre, the Chicago Cubs appear to be the leading in the chase to acquire Cuban defector and free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. The intriguing center fielder spoke with the media on Monday night, sharing this unexpected tidbit:

“Of all the teams who have come, the most interested in me has been the Chicago Cubs,” Cespedes said Monday at the Quisqueya Stadium… “I dined a few times with them and talked a lot, but that does not mean it is certain I will sign with them. I’m just telling it like it is, they have shown more interest than others.”

(translated by Google Chrome and me, Brad)

If I had snuck into your house this morning and grabbed you by the shoulders before you reached a news device and asked you: “What team is making the biggest play for Cespedes right now?” I’m fairly confident you would have answered, “The Miami Marlins; I’m calling the police.”

But, nay, it is Chicago apparently. Much of this offseason, the Cubs have been playing the quintessential flirt, giggling as they trot around the country, driving prices up for all the free agents they don’t really want.

Well, maybe this Cespedes business is for real. And if it is, does it makes sense?
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We all knew that Ozzie Guillen was nuts. That Logan Morrison has been known to say some crazy things. That Carlos Zambrano has thrown out his share of zingers in the day. But none of them can hold a torch to Marlins team president David Samson:

 “Aggressive right to the point of stupidity, but not quite there,” said Samson, characterizing the club’s planned pursuit [of Cuban ballplayer Yoenis Cespedes]. “We think he’s a perfect fit for us, but it has to be sane. [We’ve] expressing interest, going to visit, making it very clear to his representatives and to him and his family that we think he should not be anywhere other than Miami. As a Cuban and someone in the DR, it makes perfect sense. We have a perfect position for him to play. It would be great.” (Juan Rodriguez, Sun Sentinel)

When I first read that quote, my immediate thought was that it’s a perfect way to summarize the Marlins’ entire off-season: aggressive to the point of stupidity, but not quiiite there.

I don’t trust my memory, though, so is that true? Have the Marlins generally stopped themselves this year before crossing the line into poor decision making, or are have they been “aggressively stupid”? Let’s check it out, deal by deal.

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Wine and cheese make for a delectable combo. But the two foods don’t age the same. Wine takes much longer to turn to vinegar than it does for your cheese to grow fuzzy green mold. That’s why wine is the one used in sayings by older men verifying their remaining virility.

Power, patience and contact are the components of a delectable (productive) hitter. And yet, like wine and cheese, it turns out that these different skills age differently. Ages 26 through 28 are often used to represent a hitter’s peak, but not all of their different faculties are at their apex in that age range. Let’s check the aging curves, once again courtesy stat guru Jeff Zimmerman.

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