The Mets got involved in contract extension negotiations with R.A. Dickey, and Dickey’s requested price seemed to be reasonable, but for whatever reason, the Mets didn’t want to pay it. Possibly because they don’t trust Dickey in the longer term, possibly because they don’t think they’re ready to win, possibly because of a blend of those reasons, or for neither of those reasons. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are happy to pay it, as they’ve agreed to give Dickey a two-year extension. So Dickey is just about officially a member of the Blue Jays, at the cost of some of their top prospects.

The Blue Jays might trust Dickey more, and based on their offseason, they certainly think they’re more ready to win. From the looks of things, they’re the current American League East favorites. There are those major differences between this trade and the Royals’ James Shields trade — the Blue Jays are better than the Royals are, and the Blue Jays didn’t trade someone who could’ve been of immediate use. Yet, because the Blue Jays aren’t proven and because people love top prospects, there’s a sentiment that the Jays might’ve overpaid. This depends on the weight you put on trying to win in the short term, but when looking at the Dickey deal, it makes sense to look at similar previous deals.

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With news of the R.A. Dickey trade coming to fruition, the New York Mets organization will reportedly acquire the best catching prospect in baseball (narrowly edging Seattle’s Mike Zunino). Prior to the 2012 season, I ranked d’Arnaud as the 37th best prospect in baseball on FanGraphs’ Top 100 Prospects list — behind fellow catchers Jesus Montero (13th overall, and term used loosely) and Devin Mesoraco (17th), and just ahead of Yasmani Grandal (40th). All three of those catchers graduated to the majors in 2012; d’Arnaud definitely will be moving up on the Top 100 list that will be coming out this March, even after missing most of the second half of the season thanks to a torn posterior cruciate ligament in his knee.

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Like many others, I’ve expressed some bewilderment on Twitter about how the Mets are handling their negotiations with R.A. Dickey. Dickey was one of the game’s best players in 2012, and the Mets were reportedly offering him the same kind of contract Joe Blanton just signed for, and have now improved their offer to make it equal to what Jeremy Guthrie just signed for. There’s a discount involved with signing an extension a year out from free agency, but the discount has to be reasonable, and these offers don’t strike me as overly reasonable. They don’t strike Dickey as overly reasonable either.

However, there’s a common retort from some folks whenever it is suggested that the Mets pay Dickey like a top-shelf starter. “It was just one year.” Here, see for yourself.

@redsoxbuzztap please stay away frm RA Dickey. He’s a one year wonder not worth the asking price!

— Greg Boucher (@gregjboucher) December 4, 2012

Though, I don’t think it is true. Bluejays do not trade J.P for R.A Dickey. One good year! Plus he’s 37.

— Jordon (@jordon_4) December 4, 2012

Not for a 38 yr old w/one good year RT @nydnharper Source says Mets could get speedy Dee Gordon & top pitching prospect Zach Lee for Dickey.

— DodgersBeat (@DodgersBeat) December 4, 2012

I really hope @bluejays don’t overpay for a guy that was good for one year (Dickey)

— Dustin Funk (@theFunkDust) December 10, 2012

Apparently, there’s this idea that pre-2012 R.A. Dickey was a worthless nothing, and after his fluke season, he’s headed right back to being a trick pitch sideshow. That idea is just hilariously wrong.

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The Mets have been talking to R.A. Dickey about a contract extension for months, and since he’s still unsigned, there are clearly some issues that aren’t so easy to resolve between the two sides. So, they’re weighing all of their options, and the primary option for a team with a player who is a year from free agency is to trade him. Given that Zack Greinke is the lone free agent hurler who is viewed as a clear impact starter, the Mets could theoretically take advantage of a seller’s market, and shopping Dickey as a fall-back plan for the teams who don’t get Greinke might end up bringing back real talent.

Word from Jayson Stark today is that the Mets have “gotten serious” about trading Dickey and he could potentially be moved during the meetings here in Nashville. That would probably require Greinke to sign here as well, as maximizing Dickey’s return would likely involve pulling a Greinke runner-up into the bidding. Assuming Greinke does choose between a large paycheck in LA or a large paycheck in Texas, what could the Mets reasonably ask for in return for one year of a 38-year-old knuckleball specialist?

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This morning, the Mets re-signed David Wright to a seven year, $122 million contract extension that seems to be a good price for the team, and right about what we expected he would get if the two sides wanted to reach an agreement. Wright is probably going to be worth the contract on his own; the real argument has been about whether or not the Mets should be the one giving it to him.

I touched on this briefly last week in my article about the perils of losing on purpose, but I don’t think the Mets are the kind of team that need to be tearing down the talent in place and going for a youth movement. While the Mets have had four straight losing seasons, I just don’t see a lot of evidence that the team can’t win in the near future. When I look at this team and what they have in place, I just don’t see a roster that is really all that far away from being a viable contender.

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Multiple sources are reporting that David Wright and the New York Mets have reached agreement on a contract extension that essentially makes the third baseman a Met for life.

Initial reports have the deal at 7 years/$122 million. This is on top of next year’s $16 million team option, taking the total years and value of the contract  to 8/$138.

It always pays to be skeptical of long-term deals for players on the wrong side of 30, simply because we know — on average — that performance only declines from this point on.

Let’s take a look at how this might play out for the club.

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Early Sunday morning, Twitter was abuzz with news that the Dodgers and Fox Sports West had agreed to a 25-year broadcast deal valued between $6 billion and $7 billion. By Sunday afternoon, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times had confirmed the outline of the deal, but cautioned that the Dodgers and Fox were still negotiating, with a November 30 deadline looming.

As I explained last week in this post, the parties’ existing agreement gave Fox an exclusive, 45-day window in which to negotiate a new deal to govern the 2014 season and beyond. Hence, the November 30 deadline. If an agreement isn’t inked by Friday, the Dodgers must submit a final offer to Fox by December 7. Fox then has 30 days to accept or reject the offer. If Fox rejects the offer, the Dodgers are free to negotiate with whomever they want.

However the negotiations play out, it’s clear now that the Dodgers’ local TV revenue is about to enter the stratosphere. A 25-year deal worth between $6 billion and $7 billion would net the Dodgers between $240 million and $280 million per year. Per year. That’s more than any team has ever spent on player salaries in a single season — even the Yankees. And it’s nearly double the amount of local TV revenue pulled in annually by the team with the second-most lucrative deal — the other Los Angeles team (the Angels) — which entered into a 17-year deal with Fox Sports West worth $2.5 billion.

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This morning, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Mets offered David Wright a six year, $100 million extension, noting that it was an offer that Wright was sure to refuse. After all, the terms of the extension are basically equal to what the Nationals gave Ryan Zimmerman, and he was coming off a mediocre season and was two years away from free agency. Evan Longoria got a six year, $100 million extension from the Rays yesterday, and he was four years away from free agency. If the Mets want to sign Wright, they’re going to have to do a lot better than that, right?

Well, yes and no. It’s unlikely that Wright is going to sign for 6/100. He probably should get more than Ryan Zimmerman did. But, at the same time, we have to recognize that the offer isn’t that far away from what a reasonable extension for Wright should look like, and the ground to cover isn’t as large as it might sound at first glance.

Over the last couple of years, we’ve seen a decent amount of contract extensions for players headed into their walk years, and in general, so there’s a pretty well established market price for quality players one year from free agency.

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It’s the bottom of the eighth inning. Men are on first and third base, there’s one out and your team is down by one run. The opposing team has one of the best ground-ball pitchers on the hill, and the infield is playing back and is looking for a double play. All you need is a fly ball to tie the game and significantly swing your chances of winning.

So who do you want at the plate?

It’s likely that the opposing manager will either bring in a ground-ball specialist or just tell the pitcher to stay away from pitches that could be hit in the air to the outfield. Knowing who you’d want to hit requires an understanding of what pitches are the most likely to induce a ground ball — and what hitters manage to hit fly balls against those pitches most often.

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What if former MLB knuckleballer Joe Niekro taught a 7-year-old how to throw a knuckleball for strikes? And what if that seven year-old stuck with the game and the knuckleball — threw two perfect games in Little League and got named to five consecutive all-star teams heading into a high school career?

In general, there is no such thing as a knuckleball prospect. The fingernail special is the go-to pitch for normal prospects or pitchers who have to reinvent their careers. That is what makes predicting the next great knuckleballer a near impossibility. Last night, R.A. Dickey became the first knuckleballer in history to earn a Cy Young award, but Dickey himself pitched several seasons with the Rangers before adding his deadly knuckler, and even then, it took years to get to a Cy Young level.

There is a reason Dickey was the first Cy Young knuckleballer, though. The man has in some ways reinvented the knuckleball, throwing two versions of it — fast and slow versions — which allow for a 10-mph range on his flutterball. If youngsters learn Dickey’s Bugs-Bunny-pitching-style, then they could perceivably position themselves as knuckleball prospects, but it still seems unlikely.

Who would willingly throw a knuckleball in high school when scouts are looking for fastballs and curveballs? Well, for a 15-year-old native of Plant City, Florida, knuckleballs have been the key pitch to a young successful repertoire — ever since Joe Niekro taught the fluttering pitch to her.
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