The thought of Atlanta Braves third base prospect Edward Salcedo forces me to think of a popular Dave Matthews Band song titled, “The Best of What’s Around“. Maybe the lyrics don’t fit exactly, but the title is perfect when discussing the bats, or lack thereof, in the Braves minor league system. On a humid evening in July, I wound up sitting next to a scout I had met two seasons earlier in Savannah and spent much of the game discussing the Braves system. After talking through the top-flight pitching prospects in the organization, the conversation turned to potential big league hitters to which the scout commented, “Salcedo is the only bat in the entire system.” Having scouted Braves affiliates including Rome, Mississippi and Gwinnett in person, I don’t completely agree, but do concede the fact Salcedo is the only prospect system-wide with a middle-of-the-order ceiling.

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Many fans in New York are probably still in shock over the Yankees’ early expulsion from the 2011 playoffs. The truth is, though, that the dynasty is waning. That’s not to say that it’s over, by any means, but the unstoppable juggernaut of years past has been affected by Father Time.

The majority of the players that make up the team’s core are over 30 years old, including C.C. Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, A.J. Burnett, Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Nick Swisher. Even Curtis Granderson, a breakout 2011 player, is already 30. Although it’s hard to fathom, within a few years Rivera, Posada, Jeter, and even Rodriguez will be retired from the game.

What does this mean for the Yankees? Is there an existing core of somewhat youthful players that the organization can use to rebuild – or perhaps renovate is a better word – its dynasty.

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Despite an early bounce from the postseason, it was a successful year for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The club reached the postseason for the fifth time in its relatively brief history (14 seasons) — and the franchise also saw breakout performances from the likes of starting pitchers Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson, as well as outfielder Justin Upton.

But how sustainable is Arizona’s recent success? Is the organization doomed to be a one-year wonder — or does it have the young talent to continue its assault on National League opponents? On first glance, the Diamondbacks appear to have a bright future.

Starting rotation

The emergence of Kennedy and Hudson has been key to the club’s success and the pair should be around for a while. Kennedy, 26, has found new life in Arizona after being cast off by the Yankees. He’s averaged more than 200 innings in the past two seasons and succeeds with merely decent stuff while also being a fly-ball pitcher. His 3.22 FIP in 2011 was more than a full run better than in 2010, when he posted a 4.33 FIP. While some regression wouldn’t be a shock — if Kennedy can continue to command his fastball like he did this season — he could continue to perform like a No. 2 starter.

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In 2011, the buzz about Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings seems to have shifted from polarizing, to tantalizing, to polarizing once again. Apparently, I’ve somewhat positioned myself in the center of that argument on Twitter as a mention seems to come my way regarding Jennings after every multi-hit game or hitless performance. Whether gloating, or backing up my assessment of the young outfielder, Jennings the player provides for a great opportunity to discuss the black-and-white nature of scouting and just how finicky prospect followers can be.

Triple-A video of Jennings after the jump.

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This is the final post in a six part series that took a look at disappointing seasons from Top 10 prospects that entered 2011 with a lot of hype and promise. You can read the other posts here: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central.

Arizona Diamondbacks
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Marc Krauss, OF

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With an FIP a full half-run less than the South Atlantic League leader, to suggest that Rangers pitching prospect Cody Buckel excelled would be an understatement. Statistically, the young right-hander, whose pitching mechanics aim to emulate Giants Tim Lincecum, successfully utilized a four-pitch mix to overwhelm both younger and older hitters at the level. So why then was he only considered the 19th best prospect in the league ranking behind Colorado Rockies Tyler Matzek, who combined for a 6.22 ERA in 2011? The answer lies in Buckel’s upside projection, which falls below that of his higher velocity, bigger-bodied counterparts.

Video after the jump

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Milwaukee Brewers
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Mark Rogers, RHP

An all-out run at the National League Central division worked out well for the big league club in 2011 but it wreaked havoc on the organization’s minor league system. The Top 10 list was weak to begin with but it was further decimated by trades for pitchers Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. Rogers became the No. 1 prospect in the system at the beginning of the season by default. His ’11 season was disrupted by injuries, a trend that has become far too commonplace. He was diagnosed with carpal tunnel syndrome and had surgery on both his wrists. To make matters worse, Rogers also incured a 25-game suspension for testing positive for an illegal substance (His second such suspension). The former No. 1 prospect battled back from multiple surgeries to become the feel good story of 2010 but it appears headed for a serious re-write.

St. Louis Cardinals
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Seth Blair, RHP

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We kick off the National League today as we continue our series looking at disappointing seasons from prospects ranked on the pre-season 2011 FanGraphs Top 10 prospect lists. We’ve already taken a look at the American League: East, Central, and West.

Atlanta Braves
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Matthew Lipka, SS/2B/OF

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The release of Baseball America’s South Atlantic League top-20 list is essentially Christmas for me, as much of my time is spent scouting the league. This season, I had the opportunity to see 11 of the top-20 prospects featured in person, which is actually a down year for me. Fortunately, the Greenville Drive, the Boston Red Sox “Sally” affiliate was well represented, with four players in the top-20, including two of the highest ceiling prospects in the system in outfielder Brandon Jacobs and shortstop Xander Bogaerts.

As two of the best hitting prospects in the league this past season, both Jacobs and Bogaerts deserve to be ranked highly on the list, and they check in 8th and 10th respectively. However, I was pretty surprised to see Jacobs edge out his teammate for a higher position on the list.

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Our series on disappointing Top 10 prospects from 2011 continues with a look at the American League West. We’ve already taken a trip through the AL East and Central.

Seattle Mariners
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Johermyn Chavez, OF

I’ve been a pretty big supporter of Chavez since his days in the Jays organization (He was part of the loot, along with Brandon League, for Brandon Morrow) so it was more than a little disappointing – but not entirely unexpected – to see him struggle at double-A in 2011. Still just 21, he saw his wOBA drop from .410 to .304. His power also dried up as he went from having an ISO rate of .262 in a potent A-ball environment to .144 in a lesser (but still above-average) offensive-minded league. Chavez’ BABIP swung wildly along the way from .364 to .268. The good news is that his plate discipline did not change that much. His strikeout rate climbed by 2.6% and his walk rate also climbed… by 1%. The strong-armed outfielder will likely repeat double-A in 2012 but he’s still ahead of the curve in terms of age/development. He’ll probably never hit for average in the high minors or Majors but he should be able to improve upon his .212 and get up into the .250-.260 range if he can learn to better handle the off-speed stuff.

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