Entering 2010, FanGraphs posted Top 10 prospect lists for all 30 MLB organizations. And it’s been a great year for rookies, which means there are going to be a lot of changes in the Top 10 lists for 2011. Before we tackle that beast after the season, though, we’re taking a look at how each club’s No. 1 prospect has fared in 2010. Today, we’re looking at the National League West division.

The San Diego Padres
Simon Castro| Right-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: Double-A
Age: 22

The Padres organization said goodbye to some interesting arms while trying to solidify its roster for the playoffs. Smartly, the club held onto to Castro, who is performing very well in double-A at a young age. The right-hander has seen his strikeout rate drop from 2009 (10.07 to 7.43 K/9) but he continues to show excellent control (2.50 BB/9) and he continues to be a difficult guy to hit (7.43 H/9). If everything breaks right for Castro he could be a solid No. 2 starter. Value: Even

The San Francisco Giants
Buster Posey | Catcher
2010 Level: Triple-A/MLB
Age: 23

Posey has been as good – or better – as advertised. It’s just too bad the Giants club waited so long to call him up. The former college standout is the odds-on-favorite for Rookie of the Year in the National League with a 2.9 WAR rating and triple-slash line of .329/.372/.505 in 295 at-bats. He already has a positive UZR rating but the athletic Posey has not been catching that long (since college) and projects to get even better behind the dish. Value: Up

The Los Angeles Dodgers
Dee Gordon | Shortstop
2010 Level: Double-A
Age: 22

Flash’s son made a two-level jump to begin 2010 after posting a .359 wOBA with 73 steals at low-A ball in 2009. His time in double-A in 2010 has produced a .321 wOBA with 49 steals. Although his game is built around speed, Gordon could stand to get a little stronger (.081 ISO). On the plus side, his walk and strikeout rates are similar to what they were in low-A, although – like a lot of young, speedy guys – he could stand to be more patient (6.3 BB%). Value: Even

The Colorado Rockies
Christian Friedrich | Left-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: Double-A
Age: 23

It hasn’t been the best season for Friedrich but he remains one of the top southpaw pitching prospects in the minors. The 23-year-old hurler has appeared in just 18 games and has a 4.21 FIP with 10.31 hits allowed per nine innings. Friedrich has been hit by a line drive this season and also suffered a strained lat muscle in another start… Luckily none of those injuries appear to be long-term concerns. His ascent has definitely been slowed but he could still surface in Colorado in 2011. Value: Even

The Arizona Diamondbacks
Jarrod Parker | Right-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: Injured – Did Not Play
Age: 21

Despite the knowledge that Parker would be on the sidelines for the entire 2010 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, he could be found at the top of every publication’s top prospect list for this organization. The reason for that was A) He’s just that good, and B) The club’s depth was fairly weak. Things have changed, though, as the club has received a huge boost from its 2009 draft haul (Matt Davidson, Chris Owings, Bobby Borchering, Marc Krauss, etc.). All reports have Parker rebounding well since surgery and he should be on schedule to open 2011 back on the active roster, most likely in double-A. Value: Even

Up Next: The AL Central

The series continues.

CHICAGO CUBS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Hayden Simpson, Southern Arkansas, rhp, 16th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 5 college, 2 HS, 3 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 7/3.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The Cubs performances should serve as a reminder that using short-season statistics to make too many assumptions is problematic. This is because, in the limited time the draftees have been in the minor leagues, the middle-round picks are succeeding far more than the early rounders. While third-round college catcher Micah Gibbs has been a disaster, hitting .143/.229/.162 in 120 plate appearances, fifth-round outfielder Matthew Szczur was so good in the same league (.397/.439/.521) that he was promoted to full season ball. Where fourth-round JC lefty Hunter Ackerman has struggled in the complex league (2.21 WHIP!), eighth-round JC lefty Cameron Greathouse is getting ground balls (3.82 G/F) and strikeouts (9.0 K/9).

Thoughts: This was an undeniably strange draft by the Cubs, who signed just three players for more than $350,000. Tim Wilken has already thrown the gauntlet down for his first-round pick, comparing Simpson to Roy Oswalt on draft day. While they stuck their necks out with that pick, the other big investments in Reggie Golden and Ben Wells seem prudent. The team had a funny focus on smaller right-handers, perhaps seeing a market inefficiency that no one else did. While I like the team’s other picks (Golden, Szczur) quite a bit, it’s their ballsy strategy that bears paying attention to.

CINCINNATI REDS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Yasmani Grandal, Miami, c, 12th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 6 college, 3 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team went with four college hitters early, and with the exception of Grandal, all have had a lot of time in the minors. Ryan LaMarre has been a little better than average (.353 wOBA) in the Midwest League, which is more than Devin Lohman (.314 wOBA) or Brodie Greene (.304 wOBA) are doing in the Pioneer and Carolina Leagues, respectively. We haven’t seen as much of the pitchers drafted, although former Oregon State ace Tanner Robles has done a nice job (3.85 FIP) in the difficult Pioneer League environment.

Thoughts: Grandal was a favorite of mine in the draft, and his selection adds another catcher to this system. If there is a worry about his game, I think the bat speed is probably more troubling than his arm strength. I didn’t find the three college hitters particularly inspiring, but then again, they weren’t really the next-best players signed: the team gave a half-million to high school outfielder Kyle Waldrop in the 12th round, and almost one million to sixth-round pick Drew Cisco. These guys add some nice depth, and star potential, to the draft behind Grandal.

HOUSTON ASTROS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Delino DeShields Jr, Georgia HS, 2B, 8th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 6/4.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team got its second and third pick, Mike Foltynewicz and Mike Kvasnicka, signed quickly, and both have had some good experience this summer. Foltynewicz has pitched better (4.26 FIP) than his 5.52 ERA indicates, while Kvasnicka has struggled with the bat while juggling three positions in the New York-Penn League. The most encouraging performances have come from second-round pick Vincent Velasquez (3.59 FIP) and fifth-round catcher Ben Heath, who has hit .271/.383/.516 over two leagues, including the South Atlantic League.

Thoughts: There was probably more pressure on the Astros to draft well — four of the first 58 picks, bad farm system — than any other team in baseball. They went for upside and potential, so it’s definitely too early to judge their haul. Kvasnicka’s early struggles are the most disconcerting, but easily written off given the defensive demands asked of him. And, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not the best college hitter the team drafted, between Heath and Austin Wates. But the key for the draft will be the three top 60 high school guys, who come at an investment of more than $4 million.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Jimmy Nelson, Alabama, rhp, 64th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 8/2.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 6/4.

Notable Performances Thus Far: It’s pretty easy to just check the Helena Brewers box score to judge how this draft class has done so far: four of the team’s first five signees are there. The best has been either third-round pitcher Tyler Thornburg, who has struck out 20 of the 47 batters he’s faced, or sixth-round bat Cody Hawn, hitting a cool .284/.384/.510. Nelson has been a mixed bag out of the bullpen (3.37 FIP, 4.58 ERA), while Matthew Miller has been unimpressive in the rotation. The team’s first hitter drafted, Hunter Morris, has hit for power nicely (.205 ISO), but his .344 wOBA means the rest of his game is pretty unrefined.

Thoughts: It’s hard to assign the Brewers a lot of blame for not signing first-round pick Dylan Covey, who was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes, and opted to attend college close to home rather than sign with Milwaukee. There isn’t much the team could do about it, but truly, without Covey the team’s draft is safe and unexciting. Perhaps Morris or Hawn are the eventual replacement for Prince Fielder at first base (though they won’t be ready in time to make it a seamless transition), and only Thornburg has a large gap between his present abilities and ultimate ceiling. Plain and simple, this is a draft that needed a first rounder.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 6.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Jameson Taillon, Texas HS, rhp, 2nd overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 4 college, 3 HS, 3 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 7/3.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Mel Rojas Jr. hit his 100 at-bat milestone yesterday in the New York-Penn League. While he’s showed little power (.060 ISO) and bad contact rates (25 K%), his patience and athleticism still grade out highly. On the same team, fifth-round pick Tyler Waldron has done a nice job with command and ground balls, but only 5.1 K/9. The majority of this draft class has not begun playing professionally yet.

Thoughts: This is great; this is a team putting their money where their mouth is, and showing a belief in the draft. $10 million is peanuts in the grand scheme of Major League spending, and it’s amazing how much talent it can bring in. In this draft, the Bucs signed two of the best high school pitchers to seven figure deals, and then gave five others at least $400K. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Pirates miss on their four big high school pitchers: Taillon, Stetson Allie, Nick Kingham, Ryan Hafner. And between Rojas, Drew Maggi and Jared Lakind, they might have snagged a future regular, too. This draft has great balance and a great budget. Win.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Zack Cox, Arkansas, 3b, 25th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 8/2.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team’s first four picks haven’t started yet. The earliest that has is high school shortstop Sam Tuivailala, and he’s been overmatched. The team’s next five picks were signable college guys, and all have done predictably well in short-season ball. Lefties John Gast (0.50 ERA, 18 IP) and Dan Bibona (0.61 ERA, 14.2 IP) have been ridiculous, while the best of the offensive players has been catcher Cody Stanley, both for his offense (.394 wOBA) and defense (56 CS%). Neither Nick Longmire (.842 OPS) or Greg Garcia (.778 OPS) have been bad, either.

Thoughts: St. Louis signed 17 of the first 18 players they drafted, with the exception being Austin Wilson, who I think was insurance in case Zack Cox didn’t sign. Their draft is college heavy, but I think they definitely have a few big leaguers here. Jordan Swagerty should fly through the system and make the bullpen by 2012. Cox has some more volatility than I’d like from a college guy, but his potential is excellent. Tyrell Jenkins was one of my favorite high school guys in the class. The Cardinals did good here, and it’s a good thing, because the farm system needed some depth.

Favorite NL Central Draft: Pittsburgh. Least Favorite: Milwaukee.

Entering 2010, FanGraphs posted Top 10 prospect lists for all 30 MLB organizations. And it’s been a great year for rookies, which means there are going to be a lot of changes in the Top 10 lists for 2011. Before we tackle that beast after the season, though, we’re taking a look at how each club’s No. 1 prospect has fared in 2010. Today, we’re starting with the American League East division.

The New York Yankees
Jesus Montero | Catcher
2010 Level: Triple-A
Age: 20

It’s been a tumultuous season for Montero, who didn’t hit above .250 in a month until June and was almost traded out of the organization. Despite all the drama, Montero remains in pinstripes and that’s a very good thing for the organization. Still just 20, the catcher has held his own at triple-A given his age. He’s currently hitting .286/.359/.493 in 371 at-bats. He’s shown power potential (.208 ISO) against much more advanced pitching while keeping his strikeout rate in check for a power hitter (19.9 K%). Montero’s defense continues to be a work-in-progress (14 passed balls, 23% caught stealing) but time is still on his side. Value: Down Slightly

The Tampa Bay Rays
Desmond Jennings | Outfielder
2010 Level: Triple-A
Age: 23

A late start to the 2010 season, due to an injury, hampered Jennings’ overall impact this year. He’s had an OK – but not great – season at triple-A as a 23 year old. The outfielder is currently hitting .285/.358/.415 in 340 at-bats. He’s been quite successful on the base paths (31 for 33) but his power has not developed as hoped (.129 ISO – his lowest rate since ’06). Jennings has probably been passed by pitcher Jeremy Hellickson as the club’s No. 1 prospect, but the outfielder should still make Carl Crawford or B.J. Upton expendable during the off-season. He still has a little ways to go before he’s a high-impact player. Value: Even

The Boston Red Sox
Casey Kelly | Right-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: Double-A
Age: 20

It hasn’t been a good year to be a Red Sox prospect. Prospect lists flipped back and forth between Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland as the club’s No. 1 prospect but the latter player underwent brain surgery while the former struggled to adjust to double-A. Given that 2010 was Kelly’s first time committing to pitching full-time (after spending his prep career and first pro season as a two-way player), perhaps Boston was a little too aggressive with the 20-year-old hurler. The right-hander currently has a 5.31 ERA (4.03 FIP) through 21 starts and has seen his walk rate (3.32 BB/9) more than double over last season. Kelly has been quite hittable (11.18 H/9) but he’s also been the victim of a high BABIP (.366). The ’08 draft pick probably needs to repeat double-A in 2011 and it would be nice to see him get his ground-ball rate (currently 45%) back up over 50%, as it was in 2009. Value: Down Slightly

The Toronto Blue Jays
Brett Wallace | First Baseman
2010 Level: Triple-A/MLB
Age: 23

Obtained from Oakland in the off-season during the Roy Halladay dealings, Wallace has now joined his fourth organization since turning pro in 2008. The first baseman was sent from Toronto to Houston (via Philadephia) during the July traded deadline dealings in exchange for raw, but athletic, outfielder Anthony Gose. The move was a bit of a head-scratcher but the Jays organization is openly gambling on potential. Wallace was having an OK season at triple-A prior to the trade. Playing in a very offense-favorable environment, he hit .301/.359/.509 in 385 at-bats. His power output was a little disappointing considering his environment (.208 ISO), and so too was his walk rate (6.4 BB%). After the trade, which saw him land in Houston, Wallace has hit .294/.385/.353 in 34 MLB at-bats. The loss of Wallace to Houston has left pitcher Kyle Drabek – who was also picked up in the Halladay deal – as Toronto’s No. 1 prospect. Value: Down Slightly

The Baltimore Orioles
Brian Matusz | Left-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: MLB
Age: 23

One of my early favorites for Rookie of the Year in the AL, Matusz has gone through some growing pains in 2010. His ERA currently sits at 5.08 (4.76 FIP) and he’s been an extreme fly-ball pitcher, as witnessed by his ground-ball rate of just 35.9%. Matusz’ four-pitch repertoire has helped him keep things together reasonable well for his rookie season but a lack of fastball command – as well as an inconsistent changeup – has hampered his development. Because he had limited time in the minors (19 career starts), the lefty is learning to pitch at the MLB level so there will probably be some bumps in the road in 2011, as well. Value: Even

Up Next: The NL West

We all like to think that the first round of the amateur draft is a can’t miss event, but more often than not picks in the first round have a fairly high failure – or at least disappointment – rate. A year ago, two such examples would have included Pittsburgh’s Neil Walker and Toronto’s David Purcey. In the past few months, though, both players have shown that they just might provide some value to the organizations that drafted them – albeit a few years later than projected.

Purcey was taken 16th overall in the 2004 draft and Toronto passed on the likes of Philip Hughes, Gio Gonzalez, Huston Street, Yovani Gallardo, and Dustin Pedroia. The Jays gave the hard-throwing lefty out of the University of Oklahoma $1.6 million to sign as a 22-year-old pitcher that was expected to move fairly quickly. However, Purcey hit a wall in double-A. His inconsistent command led to too many base runners via the walk and the hit. He was also known as a one-pitch pitcher who had little desire to improve his secondary pitches, which allowed even minor league hitters to time and jump all over his above-average heater.

The real break for Purcey came with the move to the bullpen at the beginning of 2010 – a move that had been talked about pretty much since he entered pro ball. He’s now all but abandoned his change-up and favors his fastball about 80% of the time, while mixing in the occasional slider and curveball to keep MLB hitters on their toes. Purcey has seen his fastball command improve significantly and has a positive pitch type value on his heater for the first time in the Majors (over parts of three seasons). He’s still an extreme flyball pitcher but his line-drive rate is down noticeably and batters are hitting just .169 against him (.200 BABIP). His 21 games at the MLB level in 2010 is obviously a small sample size but the 28-year-old hurler has finally started to move in the right direction to carve out a respectable MLB career as a reliever.

Walker was also taken in the 2004 draft – 11th overall out of a Pennsylvania high school, making him a marketing agent’s dream for the Pirates organization. Jered Weaver, Billy Butler and Stephen Drew were taken in the draft right after him. Unfortunately, Walker’s career was dealt a blow when the former catcher had to move out from behind the dish to third base when his defense failed to develop. Although he hit double-digit homers four times in his minor-league career, Walker lacked the prototypical power for third base and he seemed to wilt under the pressure of his new position by posting a .694 OPS at triple-A in 2008. He began to make improvements, though, when the organization switched him to a super-utility role where he played all over the diamond. His OPS jumped to .791 in ’09 and then to .951 in 2010 (43 games).

Called up to Pittsburgh in late May, Walker has continued his hot hitting. He currently has a triple-slash line of .302/.342/.453 in 225 at-bats while playing mostly second base. Walker is showing good pop for a second baseman with an ISO rate of .151. On the down side, his defense has been pretty mediocre, according to UZR, which has him at -7.2 at the keystone. The rating is due mostly to poor range, which is not surprising for a former-catcher-turned-third-baseman-turned-second-baseman. If Walker keeps hitting as well as he has (although it would be nice to see an improvement on the 5.3% walk rate), Pittsburgh may be willing to live with the defensive deficiencies. If not, though, Walker could end up back in a utility role.

It’s fairly clearly that neither Purcey nor Walker will ever perform well enough to justify their former draft slot but both players have MLB value. It’s also impressive that, in both cases, their original organizations held onto them long enough to reap some benefits. Perhaps both Purcey and Walker are examples that organizations now realize how much money they can save by developing and holding onto their own prospects.

One constant refrain in minor league statistical analysis is that Context is Everything. Statistics mean very little in a vacuum, but instead, we need to know factors like their age relative to level, their league’s run environment, their park’s run environment. These are all factors that can wreak havoc on our attempt to judge a basic AVG/OBP/SLG batting line. We’ll be playing around to make things context-neutral all winter, but today, I wanted to magnify an environment that is universally known to favor pitching: the Florida State League.

Scouts and statisticians alike know the difficulty hitters face in the FSL, and both are long ahead of me in making adjustments. If you want to see the specific proof, I always point to a great offseason article at the Hardball Times by Justin Inaz. In terms of runs and BaseRuns alike, the FSL is the hardest league in professional baseball for hitters. As a result, I think most of us (I know that I’ve been) are guilty of seeing a batting line out of Florida, and saying, “Well, he’s played in the FSL, so I should boost up those numbers relative to other High-A players.”

However, it’s important to remember that if we continue on the path towards context-neutral, our adjustments need to be taken a step further: park adjustments. While we know how the league plays in the context of the Carolina and (especially) California Leagues, I haven’t seen a ton detailing how the specific stadiums play within the context of the league itself. In that vein, I calculated the runs per game and home runs per game at each FSL stadium (by both the home and road team) from both this season, and over the 2008-2010 period.

Name           R/G     HR/G     3R/G     3HR/G     
FSL Avg       8.45     1.01     8.34      1.10
Brevard       8.02     0.67     7.84      0.88
Clearwater    8.59     1.31     8.30      1.34
Daytona       9.07     1.30     8.99      1.21
Dunedin       8.81     1.47     8.89      1.45
Fort Myers    8.64     0.76     8.13      0.90
Jupiter       7.79     0.63     7.72      0.84
Lakeland      8.07     0.93     8.87      1.34
Palm Beach    7.68     0.75     7.78      0.79
St. Lucie     9.93     1.07     9.35      1.27
Tampa         7.56     0.81     7.77      0.78

Note: Not included above are Bradenton and Charlotte, because those affiliates haven’t existed for 3 years. Bradenton has played (relatively) hitter-friendly this year, at 9.79 runs and 1.30 home runs per game. Charlotte is somewhere between neutral and pitcher-friendly, at 7.38 runs and 1.13 homers per contest.

You see quite a bit of diversity in those numbers. This season, for every home run hit in Jupiter, there have been 2.3 hit in Dunedin. The league has three stadiums that seem to be extreme pitcher’s parks (Jupiter, Palm Beach, Tampa), and two others that favor pitchers (Brevard, Fort Myers) by a decent amount. By contrast, hitters from Clearwater, St. Lucie, Dunedin and Daytona probably receive more credit from our sub-conscious FSL adjustments than they deserve.

Some thoughts on how these findings should alter our thoughts on specific prospects numbers this season.

Corban Joseph was recently promoted to Double-A, and you can bet he’s happy to be away from Tampa. Joseph’s final FSL numbers (.302/.378/.436) look good without any context, but only improve on closer inspection. In just two more games on the road, Joseph hit seven more doubles, three more triples, and two home runs more than his home production. His ISO was .076 higher on the road, so I think it’s safe to say there’s more juice in the bat than his overall numbers might suggest.

On the opposite side, I’m still not sold on the “breakout” of Andrew Brackman. The reports on stuff are very good, and his command has certainly improved. So I don’t deny there has been improvement. But Brackman allowed no home runs and a 2.36 ERA in 27 innings in Tampa, and outside of there, in 33 innings, gave up five home runs and a 7.29 ERA. On the encouraging side, it doesn’t appear that the breakouts of Dellin Betances or Adam Warren seem Tampa-induced. The jury is still out on Graham Stoneburner.

The Brewers have something really interesting in former Cal State Fullerton star Erik Komatsu. He’s another guy that even looks positive superficially (.325/.407/.442 thru 101 games), but even better with park adjustments. Komatsu has just nine extra-base hits in 203 at-bats in Brevard County, versus 23 extra-base hits in 182 road at-bats. With good baserunning, corner defense, and patience, a boost in his power projection really makes him an interesting prospect. Though at 22 years old, it’s important to mention that by the ARL context, his numbers would take a hit.

There aren’t great examples screaming out of the league’s two least-friendly stadiums for hitters, Jupiter and Palm Beach. However, I will say that I’m not totally ready to close the book on Jake Smolinski or Tommy Pham. Smolinski is further down the Bust Path, but I’ll give him one more season to prove me wrong. His contact skills are pretty good, and I do think there’s power somewhere in that bat. Pham’s tools have always teased, but now he’s taken his patience to the next level (14.6 BB%), and showed power on the road before his promotion. He’s backing his way into legitimate prospect status.

The ever-confusing Trevor May, an inconsistent pitcher like I’ve never seen before, maybe should have been given more time before his demotion back to Low-A. May has dominated back in Low-A, and I think he could do the same here. The problem was just that his bad command really hurt more in Clearwater, where his HR/FB ratio was badly inflated – he gave up seven home runs in 35.2 innings. On the road, where the walks were an equal problem but the home runs weren’t (0 in 34.1 IP), he was great, with a 2.62 ERA.

Plenty of more examples, but needless to say, there’s a lot here. This winter, we’ll spend all sorts of time neutralizing as best we can, and really get an idea of how these players actually performed relative to each other.

The Boston Red Sox organization is one of the most aggressive teams in the Majors in terms of handing out above-slot deals to draft picks. During the three drafts spanning 2007-09, the club signed a Major League high 16 players to above-slot deals (outside the Top 3 rounds).

As a lover of everything prospects, I applaud this approach and even encourage it for organizations with strong scouting staffs. But how well have the multi-million dollar investments worked out for the Red Sox organization? Let’s have a look.

* For the sake of this article, I am focusing on over-slot deals for $200,000 or more.

2009 Amateur Draft

7th round – Madison Younginer, RHP, S.C. HS ($975,000)
Challenged with an assignment to the New York-Penn League for his first taste of pro ball in 2010, the 19-year-old hurler currently has a 7.60 ERA (4.84 FIP) in 23.2 innings. He’s struggled a bit with his control but he’s shown a nice ground-ball rate at 59%. In the low minors, high ground-ball rates can hurt pitchers with poor defenses behind them (as well as poorly maintained fields).

9th round – Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor U ($550,000)
At 22, Volz is on the old side for low-A and he’s not exactly dominating the league. The right-hander has a 4.11 ERA (3.74 FIP) in 81.0 innings of work. He’s given up 92 hits and struck out just 62 batters with an average-ish ground-ball rate at 42%. Volz has walked just eight batters, which suggests he has good control but perhaps poor command of his pitches in the strike zone, which has been hurting him against the overly aggressive young hitters in the low minors.

10th round – Brandon Jacobs, OF, Georgia HS ($750,000)
Another teenager assigned to the New York-Penn League, Jacobs is holding his own with a triple-slash line of .276/.333/.402 in 87 at-bats. He has 28 strikeouts in 24 games. The Sox stole him away from Auburn’s football program and the results have been encouraging so far, even if he has yet to truly display his raw power potential.

11th round – Jason Thompson, SS, Tenn HS ($300,000)
Known for having good speed, Thompson has attempted just three steals in 17 GCL games. The switch-hitter is batting .208/.203/.319 in 72 at-bats. For a player that profiles as a No. 1 or 2 hitter, it’s not a good sign to see a goose-egg in the walk column.

26th round – Miles Head, 3B, Georgia HS ($335,000)
Head managed to get 10 games of pro experience in during the ’09 season after signing and he moved up from the GCL to the New York-Penn League for 2010. He’s currently hitting .275/.381/.377 in 69 at-bats. Head is showing a pretty good eye at the plate with 12 walks to 10 strikeouts. Considered a very good amateur hitter, the knock on Head was a bad body and poor defense at the hot corner. The infielder has moved over to first base in ’10 so he’ll need to start showing some more power.

2008 Amateur Draft

4th round – Pete Hissey, OF, Pennsylvania HS ($1 million)
It’s been a step-by-step ascent for Hissey, who has moved up one level each season since signing. The outfielder is not exactly tearing the Carolina League apart by hitting .245/.322/.329 in 319 at-bats. He’s shown limited power throughout his career but 20+ stolen base ability. Hissey needs to get on base a little more consistently.

5th round – Ryan Westmoreland, OF, R.I. HS ($2 million)
We probably all know the story of Westmoreland by now. Recovering from brain surgery, the former top prospect is reportedly hitting off of a tee in the hopes of resuming regular baseball activity in the future.

6th round – Ryan Lavarnway, C, Yale U ($325,000)
The decision to pay Lavarnway is looking pretty smart. The former Yale student is currently hitting .289/.392/.487 in 304 at-bats and showed a pretty good stick in low-A in ’09, as well. After hitting 24 homers last year, Lavarnway is on pace to hit 20+ homers yet again. Behind the dish, he’s thrown out 36% of base runners, but he’s still working on his receiving skills.

13th round – Tyler Wilson, RHP, Georgia HS ($300,000)
Wilson wasn’t on a lot of teams’ radars as a top pick, but the club obviously liked his solid pitcher’s frame, which is currently 6-5, 190 lbs. Wilson is pitching in the New York-Penn League and has a 4.84 ERA (4.38 FIP) with 26 hits allowed in 22.1 innings.

27th round – Hunter Cervenka, LHP, Texas HS ($350,000)
Cervenka has joined Wilson in the Spinners rotation. The lefty showed some command issues in 11 ’09 appearances by walking 26 batters in 22.1 innings. He’s made adjustments in ’10 with just 11 walks in 21.0 innings. Cervenka currently has a 4.29 ERA (4.38 FIP).

35th round – Carson Blair, SS, Texas HS ($200,000)
Since signing, Blair has moved from shortstop to catcher. After posting a .608 OPS in the Gulf Coast League in ’09, he was moved up to the New York-Penn League but he appeared in just one game before hitting the disabled list. The thumb injury required surgery, according to SoxProspects.com.

2007 Amateur Draft

5th round – Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Texas HS ($925,000)
Slow and easy. Middlebrooks hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, but he’s shown improvements in each and every pro season. The third baseman is currently hitting .293/.353/.455 in 297 at-bats. He’s showing better power in ’10 (.162 ISO) but he’s still striking out a lot (26% K rate). Defensively, Middlebrooks is showing better range this season but he’s made his fair share of errors.

6th round – Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Florida HS ($325,000)
Like Westmoreland, Rizzo has faced some serious health issues since turning pro. His cancer is in remission, though, and the first baseman had a breakout year in ’09. Unfortunately, despite playing at two levels in ’10, he’s hitting just .246/.310/.447 combined between high-A and double-A. His OBP has slipped to just .297 in double-A, thanks in part to 17 walks in 225 at-bats.

7th round – David Mailman, 1B, N.C. HS ($550,000)
Mailman received more cash from the Sox to walk away from a college commitment than Rizzo did, but the former has yet to have the same success in pro ball. Mailman has basically hit the wall in high-A. In 199 at-bats in ’09, he hit just .186/.261/.221. In ’10, he was hitting just .130/.264/.273 in 77 at-bats before being sidelined by a broken wrist.

16th round – Austin Bailey, RHP, Alabama HS ($285,000)
A disappointing story, Bailey injured his shoulder in his first pro start in 2008 and hasn’t pitched since. He was then suspended in ’09 and released earlier this year.

23rd round – Drake Britton, LHP, Texas HS ($700,000)
On to happier news. Britton has been a real find for the organization. After spending parts of two seasons in short-season ball thanks to Tommy John surgery, the lefty moved up to low-A in ’10 and has posted a 3.15 ERA (3.26 FIP) in 34.1 innings and 12 starts. His innings are being closely monitored as he rebounds from the injury but he’s flashed good fastball velocity in his return.

The Futures Game was – as far as a competition – just what we thought it would be: a one-sided affair thanks to a stale structure and unfortunate roster choices. However, as an opportunity to see the people I write about (a rare opportunity for this Chicagoan), it was also a lot of fun. In that vein, I’m turning to a straight-old notes format here, starting with the five best tools I saw in Anaheim:

The U.S. Team Speed. One look at the roster and this was obvious; any team with Desmond Jennings, Dee Gordon, Mike Trout, and Ben Revere can obviously fly. But this game gave the opportunity to see them fly. Trout reached base on two errors that his speed effected, logged an infield single (Keith Law tweeted “Trout’s run time to first matched the fastest I’ve ever gotten from a right handed hitter.”), and turned a routine single into a double. Gordon, who is the skinniest highly-ranked prospect I have ever seen, can certainly get down the line in a hurry. Jennings stole second with ease, and Revere made a bang-bang play out of a routine grounder. Speed is the tool with the least transference to actual baseball, but it might be the most fun to see live.

Fastballs, plural. If speed is a hitter’s most easily displayed tool, the fastball is its pitching equivalent. We saw a lot of fastballs today – something north of 80%, without question – and here is who stuck out, in order of appearance.

Zach Britton. The guy shattered a bat with his first pitch, but Francisco Peguero muscled the pitch to right field. The whole inning, Britton was trading off between bowling ball sinkers and a four-seamer that hit the mid 90s. It’s a two-pitch fastball arsenal, and it’s really good.

Zack Wheeler. Despite his struggles this season, I can absolutely understand what the Giants see in Zack Wheeler. More projectable than his listed size (6-3, 180) suggests, and throws an easy 95-97 mph. It is worth nothing he threw nine fastballs (six for strikes, three for outs) and one bad “change up?” (a double by Carlos Peguero).

Julio Teheran and Tanner Scheppers. I’m breaking order of appearance here to include Sheppers, but it seems apt to tie them together. Both have big and easy velocity, and both were impressive, but neither had control today.

Henderson Alvarez. If Hank Conger is the hero, then Alvarez is today’s goat, but I don’t think his line tells the story. Alvarez was consistently throwing 96 mph, so the Jays have a really good foundation to continue to build on.

Wilin Rosario’s Arm. Scouts love the opportunity to see a match-up of highly lauded hitter and pitcher, even if they’re aware that one plate appearance means nothing. By the same token, Wilin Rosario throwing out Mike Trout as an isolated incident doesn’t tell us a whole lot. But between that play and picking Brett Jackson off first base, Rosario reinforced any praise his arm has received prior to this game. He’s thrown out 40% of runners in the Texas League, and between that and the pop he’s shown this year, it’s clear that he’s going to be a Major Leaguer.

Jordan Lyles’ Change Up. Dave Cameron and I talked after the game and struggled to remember a single plus breaking ball we’d seen all day. By my game notes, the only two I can say now were Jeremy Hellickson threw an okay one in the first, and Alex Torres trusted his a bit in the third. So in a game dominated by fastballs, a good offspeed pitch was bound to stick out. And Lyles, who wasn’t quite on par with his American crew in velocity, threw a couple fantastic, fantastic change-ups in striking out Carlos Peguero. If Astros fans want to know why Jordan Lyles is running a drastic reverse platoon split this year, it’s the change-up.

Mike Trout’s Baseball Tool. The talk of Angels Stadium today, by a country mile, was Mike Trout. First, we saw his football build. Then, came batting practice. Trout hit about five baseballs out, and hit the centerfield wall on his first swing. The power hasn’t arrived yet, but it’s there. Then, in four plate appearances, Trout managed to hit the ball hard each time, and showed his 80 speed in each at-bat. Throw in a little savvy and a lot of make-up, and you have the game’s big story (if not the MVP – his future teammate won that for clubbing a fastball over the right field fence).

And let’s finish with five even quicker hits:

While Trout’s BP was telling for his power projection, the best showing before the game belonged to Lonnie Chisenhall. The Indians prospect has a beautiful swing, and effortlessly hit a couple balls over the right field fence. It’s hard to imagine that he doesn’t hit in the Major Leagues, but then again, I can’t explain why he hasn’t hit consistently in Double-A.

Gorkys Hernandez is really good at defense. TotalZone will tell you that much, but seeing him in person will, too. He ranged very deep to snag a ball that Logan Morrison hit to the wall, and then showed a really good arm from center later in the game. Hernandez also looked lost at the plate, so while his defense is nice, I don’t think he’s even feasible as an everyday option.

I already mentioned how skinny Dee Gordon looked, but can someone explain what the perfect world projection for Gordon is? He just doesn’t have the frame to ever hit for power – nor the swing, as it’s geared to hit balls the opposite way. His speed is great and his arm is very good, but how valuable is that really? Why is he a top 100 prospect?

Ben Revere has always had a hitch in his swing, but I swear it has become even more pronounced than it was in the Midwest League in 2008. Revere wasn’t a big surprise today – hitting groundballs and trying to beat them out is his game – but that hitch is jaw-dropping. The Twins haven’t changed it for a reason, I just don’t know what that reason is.

The World manager did a far better job at giving each of his pitchers a chance than the U.S. manager. As a result, Christian Friedrich flew out to Los Angeles for a three-pitch out, Shelby Miller got to throw seven pitches, and Bryan Morris, sadly, has one pitch to show for his trip.

There has been a lot of controversy in Arizona recently and, while I don’t necessarily agree with the direction of the big-league club, the organization boasts an exciting minor league system. The strength of the system actually comes as a result of an impressive 2009 draft haul – perhaps the best in recent memory in terms of overall depth. Let’s check in with some of the members of the ’09 class:

1st RND Bobby Borchering, 3B, Florida HS
The club’s first pick has yet to truly get hot this season and is producing a triple-slash line of .248/.324/.388 in 286 overall at-bats. Borchering has actually been pretty consistent and has hit right around .250 in every month. The switch-hitter’s swing from the right side has been a little more potent this year, albeit in fewer at-bats.

1S Matt Davidson, 3B, California HS
Davidson has shown a little more pop in his bat this season than his fellow hot-corner mate with a triple-slash line of .289/.374/.485 in 270 at-bats. Davidson began the year with a very aggressive approach, with just one walk in April, but he made adjustments and walked 13 times in May and 12 times in June. Unfortunately, the more patient approach has hurt his average: .354 in April, .265 in May, and .228 in June.

1S Chris Owings, SS, South Carolina HS
Another aggressive hitter, Owings has just nine walks compared to 50 strikeouts. Overall, though, the approach has been successful to this point. He’s currently hitting .298/.323/.447 in 255 at-bats. Owings hit more than .300 in his debut in ’09.

1S Mike Belfiore, LHP, Boston College
Belfiore had a nice debut in ’09 and he’s followed that up with a solid performance. Unfortunately, his ground-ball rate is not as good as it was in his debut and his control has slipped a bit, too, although it’s still solid. He looks like a solid No. 3 starter if he continues to develop on this path.

2. Eric Smith, RHP, University of Rhode Island
Smith has been a workhorse, with 80 innings pitched so far this season. He’s given up 80 hits and 27 walks. He does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and has a respectable – but not flashy – strikeout rate. He looks like a potential No. 3 starter for the D-Backs.

2. Marc Krauss, OF, University of Ohio
Krauss has been on the fast-track and currently has a .931 OPS in high-A ball. Overall, he’s hitting .327/.389/.541 in 303 at-bats. He shown some good pop but he also strikes out a lot (70 Ks). He’s been on fire recently and has 25 hits and seven homers in his last 10 games – good for a 1.654 OPS.

5. Ryan Wheeler, 1B, Loyola Marymount University
Wheeler hit more than .350 in his debut in ’09 and he’s followed that up with a solid line of .285/.343/.409 in 330 at-bats. However, he has yet to tap into his raw power and has just six homers (but 21 doubles). After hitting .310 in April, Wheeler cooled to .234 in June. His power development will dictate his future potential.

8. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Texas State University
Goldschmidt has shown massive power in the potent California League with 24 doubles and 18 homers. His overall approach, though, suggests he may face difficulties at higher levels. He’s walked 27 times with an eye-popping 90 strikeouts. Goldschmidt is also hitting just .194 with runners in scoring position.

This draft class also includes a few other interesting names to monitor, including pitchers Patrick Schuster, and Scottie Allen, as well as outfielders Keon Broxton, and the injured A.J. Pollock, and infielder David Nick.

We’re getting to that time of year when we should begin to see players start to change hands as playoff-hopeful teams look to solidify their rosters for that final two-month push. As a result, we could start to see some playing time open up for rookies currently applying their trades in the minors. Below you’ll find three first basemen that could be in line to benefit from some trade deadline wheeling and dealings.

Brandon Allen, Arizona
Current first baseman Adam LaRoche is having a fine season and Arizona currently sits in last place in the National league West division. The team is currently cleaning house in the front office, so that mentality could lead to a lot of changes on the field, as well. LaRoche will be a free agent at the end of the year, but he also has a 2011 mutual option for $9.5 million. Because his numbers have taken a dip since his strong April, Arizona will likely have to take a B- or C-level prospect for LaRoche.

Allen’s overall numbers may not look that impressive, but his OPS was .757 in April. Since missing all but three games in May (shoulder dislocation), he’s gone on a massive hot streak and had a 1.146 OPS in June. During that month he also walked 25 times in 26 games. For the year, Allen has 42 walks in 51 games and a slugging percentage of .529. It’s probably time to hand the job to the inexpensive 24-year-old prospect to see what he can do. Surely he can take a legitimate run at LaRoche’s 0.6 WAR.

Logan Morrison, Florida
Current first baseman Gaby Sanchez is doing everything he can to keep Morrison in triple-A. As a result, the team may have to get fancy to find room for the 22-year-old prospect. With the team falling down the standings in the NL East, now might be the time to finally trade second baseman Dan Uggla, who currently has the second highest wOBA of his career at .365 and is showing respectable fielding abilities, according to UZR. By trading Uggla, the club could then move sophomore Chris Coghlan back to the position he played in the minors and install Morrison in left (where he has some experience).

Kila Ka’aihue, Kansas City
Royals management gave Ka’aihue a token call-up in May to try and shut up the stats crowd… but we’re back and starting to make noise again. If the organization can find a take for Jose Guillen – which is no sure thing despite his 1.3 WAR – then Ka’aihue deserves to have an extended look in the Majors. Check out these triple-A numbers: .307/.472/.583 in 218 at-bats. On the year, Ka’aihue has 70 walks in 64 games, as well as a .276 ISO rate. The Royals club is second last in the Majors in walks and its on-base percentage (10th in the Majors) relies very heavily on batting average. The team also has the seventh lowest ISO rate in the Majors so a little more power could help, too.

The Houston Astros’ top prospect Jason Castro was recalled recently and gives fans of the organization something to look forward to as he acclimatizes himself to the Major Leagues. Through five MLB games, he’s off to a nice start with a wOBA of .392. The even better news for Astros followers, though, is that there are more prospects on the way. And the one that we should be most excited about could one day throw to Castro.

Jordan Lyles, just 19, is currently performing well in double-A. The right-hander has a 3.10 FIP in 93.1 innings of work and has given up 88 hits and just 22 walks, which shows outstanding control (2.10 BB/9) for a teenager. His 85 K total places him in second place in the Texas League, 11 knockouts ahead of teammate Douglas Arguello.

There are a couple small things that Lyles can continue to work on. His ground-ball rate is just average at 44% and better worm-burning numbers could help him when he pitches at home in Houston. His numbers against left-handed batters are not too bad – in part because of a low BABIP – but his strikeout rate drops from 9.95 against righties to 6.35 K/9. This could suggest that his change-up is not an overly effective pitch against lefties – or he’s just not using it enough.

Another interesting stat with Lyles this year is his strikeout rate with runners in scoring position, which is just 4.38 – compared to 9.85 K/9 with the bases empty. This is basically the exact opposite of what you want to see; the more you put balls in play, the more likely you are to fall victim to bad luck (or bad fielding) because you don’t want to give base runners the chance to scamper home. Lyles has been lucky to this point with a .231 BABIP with RISP but that’s unlikely to hold true. The Astros prospect also had a similar statistical trend in ’09. It’s a trend that a lot of pitchers follow, but not to the extreme that Lyles has (a difference of almost 5.50 K/9).

One of the most interesting things about Lyles is that the Houston Astros organization was just about the only club that viewed the right-hander as a potential supplemental first round pick when he was selected out of a South Carolina high school and signed for just under a $1 million. He’s performed better than any other ’08 supplemental pick not names Mike Montgomery or Jake Odorizzi. Kudos to the Astros’ talent oft-maligned evaluators.

With Roy Oswalt’s and Brett Myers‘ futures up in the air as the trade deadline nears, Lyles could be positioning himself to aid the organization at some point in 2011. Both Lyles and Castro could help to breathe new life into this stagnant organization. If the organization is smart, it will look to trade both Oswalt and Myers – neither of whom will be around when the organization is ready to compete for a title, anyway – to hopefully acquire some complementary parts to build around the battery of the future.