These First Sackers Deserve a Shot
We’re getting to that time of year when we should begin to see players start to change hands as playoff-hopeful teams look to solidify their rosters for that final two-month push. As a result, we could start to see some playing time open up for rookies currently applying their trades in the minors. Below you’ll find three first basemen that could be in line to benefit from some trade deadline wheeling and dealings.
Brandon Allen, Arizona
Current first baseman Adam LaRoche is having a fine season and Arizona currently sits in last place in the National league West division. The team is currently cleaning house in the front office, so that mentality could lead to a lot of changes on the field, as well. LaRoche will be a free agent at the end of the year, but he also has a 2011 mutual option for $9.5 million. Because his numbers have taken a dip since his strong April, Arizona will likely have to take a B- or C-level prospect for LaRoche.
Allen’s overall numbers may not look that impressive, but his OPS was .757 in April. Since missing all but three games in May (shoulder dislocation), he’s gone on a massive hot streak and had a 1.146 OPS in June. During that month he also walked 25 times in 26 games. For the year, Allen has 42 walks in 51 games and a slugging percentage of .529. It’s probably time to hand the job to the inexpensive 24-year-old prospect to see what he can do. Surely he can take a legitimate run at LaRoche’s 0.6 WAR.
Logan Morrison, Florida
Current first baseman Gaby Sanchez is doing everything he can to keep Morrison in triple-A. As a result, the team may have to get fancy to find room for the 22-year-old prospect. With the team falling down the standings in the NL East, now might be the time to finally trade second baseman Dan Uggla, who currently has the second highest wOBA of his career at .365 and is showing respectable fielding abilities, according to UZR. By trading Uggla, the club could then move sophomore Chris Coghlan back to the position he played in the minors and install Morrison in left (where he has some experience).
Kila Ka’aihue, Kansas City
Royals management gave Ka’aihue a token call-up in May to try and shut up the stats crowd… but we’re back and starting to make noise again. If the organization can find a take for Jose Guillen – which is no sure thing despite his 1.3 WAR – then Ka’aihue deserves to have an extended look in the Majors. Check out these triple-A numbers: .307/.472/.583 in 218 at-bats. On the year, Ka’aihue has 70 walks in 64 games, as well as a .276 ISO rate. The Royals club is second last in the Majors in walks and its on-base percentage (10th in the Majors) relies very heavily on batting average. The team also has the seventh lowest ISO rate in the Majors so a little more power could help, too.
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
Marc- From what I’ve seen, he’s only played a few games in LF in the minors, though he probably played it in high school. I haven’t heard good things, but maybe the team can try Sanchez at third again once they officially drop from contention.
Adam LaRoche (career .909 OPS after the break) is actually MOST valuable right now. A wise GM might try to exploit that.
I’ve been wondering if the D-Backs could exploit that in the trade market…
I’m surprised Kila is still a Royal. From what I hear, they’re very doubtful his swing can play at the ML level. That a team like the Mariners or even the Rays haven’t tossed a shiny longshot at the Royals surprises me. I imagine they’ve tried which leads me to wonder, why do the Royals keep Kila but never let him free.
Am I correct in assuming that is why they have tried to limit his MLB plate appearances? If they don’t believe in his swing they’d prefer not to expose it to other clubs? Do any comparables in terms of non-translating swings come to mind? I’m familiar with approaches that don’t translate but my batting mechanics are a little green. What in particular in Kila’s swing don’t they like? Is it a little loopy?
They don’t like it because it produces hits and runs. That is against the Royal Philosophy.
The Royals don’t have a philosophy. They have “The Process.” Though apparently it may take a while.
Brett Wallace?
An .869 OPS in a bandbox doesn’t warrant a call-up. He definitely has some stuff to work out.
Travis Ishikawa in SF. With the Giants season cratering before our eyes and Buster Posey moving behind the plate, the Giants should become immediate sellers while Aubrey Huff’s value is at a premium. There are several teams that can use Huff with the Angels coming immediately to mind. Ishikawa has excelled in a reserve/PH role with a .297/.366/.514 line in a microscopic sample size. He wasn’t terrible last year despite a brutal road split, and he brings premium defense to the table. Huff is only signed for this year. The Giants need to find out once and for all what they have in Ishikawa, Nate Schierholtz and, if possible, John Bowker before the upcoming offseason. They need a full second half of AB’s to make that determination.
The Giants have mismanaged Ishikawa’s career badly enough that I’m not sure they can risk starting him full time in the middle of a pennant race.
He should’ve been playing full time last year, either at AAA or in the majors to see if his 2008 breakout was real or a fluke. Instead, he played about half the time in the majors and struggled and it’s impossible to know if those struggles were a product of not being able to adjust to not being a full time player or proof that 2008 was a fluke. His strong performance this year is way too small a sample to meaningfully add to the conversation. He clearly has upside, but he’s a huge risk and committing to him this season would be an unwise choice for the Giants.
Uh, what pennant race?
That and he hit a grand slam off Ubaldo today
[1] Allen always has big MiLB numbers. The increase in walks likely coincide with his big OPS in June, rather than him being more selective. Wonder how many of those walks came with first base open. At the ML level he hasn’t given pitchers a reason to pitch around him.
[2] Kila gets a call-up to shut the stats guys up? Wasn’t it reasonable for him to get a call-up this season?
I do agree that ARZ could trade “highish” on ALR and let Allen play the rest of the season and see bow he does. The problem there is that if he struggles, the options for 2011 are lessened. I am assuming that ARZ won’t be *this bad* 3 years in a row.
Keep in mind, Allen is hitting in Reno, where there’s a big time hitters’ park.
He should be expected to put up big numbers.
While it’s certainly not wrong to peg it as a hardcore hitter’s park, be careful in saying that “he should be expected to put up” a 1.146 June OPS… We don’t have a significant enough sample in the majors to really get a feel for what Allen is, particularly since that sample came at the end of the longest season of Allen’s career.
He took the month off in May, is fully healthy and has energy, and is destroying the ball. With the season in the tank, now is the time to start getting a feel for what Allen can do – and, by extension, continue to try to get a clearer picture as to how Reno’s offensive numbers translate to the bigs.
After all, aside from the Allen stint that I’m willing to give him a pass for, our only samples to go by are John Hester (numbers translated terribly), Trent Oeltjen (the mojo wore off quickly), Luke Carlin (journeyman catcher who had already displayed his skill level in San Diego), Alex Romero (but we already knew what Romero was), Josh Whitesell (AAAA power from a minor-league journeyman 1B? Shocking.) Cole Gillespie (numbers translated meh-ly), and Rusty Ryal (the glimmer of hope – numbers translated awesomely).
The only guy out of all of them that was really supposed to light the world on fire in the bigs with the expectations of his minor-league line was Allen, so that’s not a terrible hit-to-miss ratio from the rest of the bunch, albeit a small sample. We really just don’t know what to expect from our AAA affiliate, which is something we need to fix, particularly in a lost season.
A 1.146 OPS is still impressive, don’t get me wrong, but it’s still in the minor leagues. I know it’s a small sample I’m using, but he didn’t look very good in the majors last year. I’m always worried about these big strike out guys not being able to hit MLB pitching.
ARZ minor league batters seem to hit very well. The minor league pitchers seem to rack up HUGE K numbers (Scherzer, Schlereth, Zavada, etc).
Here’s a bit more of an obscure one: Lucas Duda. He just won the IL Player of the Week award with a ridiculous seven days of baseball by hitting .304 / .433 / 1.000 and was having an impressive breakout season prior. He’s already 24, and always been a bit on the old side for his leagues and never shown much pop, but he’s also always had the size and physical ability for a potential power breakout, so from a scouting perspective this isn’t entirely shocking, and always had a high OBP maintained by strong walk rates and a respectable contact profile at every level. He’s hitting .292 / .365 / .677 (with a .265 BABIP mind you) since being promoted to Triple-A a few weeks ago and had hit .289 / .409 / .509 in Double-A prior. His 12 HR across the two levels already represent a single season career high. He has a career .279 / .378 / .445 line in the minors, and there were even some signs of the power breakout last year. He hit just two homers through May and then had seven in June and July. Of course, the Mets don’t exactly have the room to fit him into 1B or LF, and he still has a huge issue against lefty pitchers, but if he maintains the power breakout, combine that with his ability to get on base consistently and you have a very interesting potential late blooming sleeper.