Archive for Minor Leagues

Updating the June Call-Ups

There are no conspiracies in Major League Baseball… just large coincidences. One such coincidence was the significant number of top prospect call-ups in June. Many of these prospects now have close to a month’s worth of experience in the Majors, so it’s a perfect time to check in on them and see which players are positioning themselves to make a strong run at the Rookie of the Year awards.

The National League

Buster Posey, C, San Francisco
OK, we’re fudging the rules right off the bat here with Posey, who technically played three games in May. One of the top offensive prospects in baseball, he’s looked good at the MLB level and is currently hitting .310/.337/.414 in 87 at-bats. The Giants organization has already announced that Posey will see more time behind the dish going foward, which is great news for his overall value as he’s currently appeared in just three games as a catcher, compared to 21 games at first base.

Jason Castro, C, Houston
Castro is one of the most recent call-ups and he has just four games of MLB experience under his belt. The former No. 1 draft pick narrowly missed making the team out of spring training only to go down and struggle in triple-A with a triple-slash line of .226/.388/.245. Luckily for him, J.R. Towles failed in his bid to hold onto the big-league gig.

Pedro Alvarez, OF, Pittsburgh
Despite his brief pro career, Alvarez has a bit of a reputation as a slow starter. He hit poorly at high-A ball in ’09 before moving up to double-A and setting the world on fire. Then he opened up 2010 at triple-A and hit just .224/.298/.424 in April. His bat came to life in May and June, though, which earned him a shot at the Majors. Alvarez has struggled to make contact in his first 10 games. The former No. 1 draft pick has struck out 17 times in his first 35 at-bats. His triple-slash line currently sits at .114/.158/.171.

Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh
Tabata more or less reinvented himself at triple-A in 2010 by setting a career high in steals in just 53 games and also by hitting more than .300 with solid on-base numbers. Rewarded with his first taste of the Majors, Tabata has hit better than Alvarez but he’s still producing modest numbers. The former Yankees prospect is hitting .242/.299/.339 in 62 at-bats.

Mike Stanton, OF, Florida
The 20-year-old Stanton got a lot of people excited with his double-A numbers, which included 21 homers, a 1.171 OPS, and 52 RBI in 53 games. Unfortunately, a lot of people looked past the high strikeout rate. The Marlins’ top prospect is currently hitting just .213/.279/.311 in 61 at-bats. His strikeout rate sits at 47.5 K%. It definitely would have made a lot of sense to give him some time at triple-A before promoting him to the Majors.

Brad Lincoln, RHP, Florida
A former Top 5 pick in the amateur draft, Lincoln has been a little slower to develop than the organization had likely hoped. The right-hander produced good, but not great, numbers at triple-A this season, which was good enough to earn a shot in Pittsburgh. The MLB results have not been that great, though. Lincoln currently has a 5.95 xFIP and his ground-ball rate sits at 38%. His strikeout rate through four starts is just 3.00 K/9.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
Another pitcher with four MLB starts… but the results here are quite different. Despite having a BABIP-allowed of .358, Strasburg’s xFIP sits at 1.35 and his strikeout rate is 14.57 K/9 (with a walk rate of just 1.78 BB/9). So much for rookie jitters. Strasburg’s fastball has been sitting at 97.5 mph and he has positive pitch-type values for all three of his offerings (heater, curveball, change-up).

The American League

Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland
With apologies to Mr. Posey, Santana has probably had the biggest offensive impact of all the June call-ups… at least to this point. He has made a seamless transition to the Majors and is currently hitting .318/.446/.682 in 44 at-bats. Santana also has a 19.6% walk rate and has had more base-on-balls than strikeouts (1.83 BB/K rate). His wOBA sits at .472. The biggest knock on Santana is defense, but he’s thrown out 50% of base stealers with just one error and no passed balls.

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Baltimore
Arrieta finally began to turn potential into results in 2010 at triple-A. The right-hander produced a 1.85 ERA and gave up just 48 hits in 73.0 innings of work. Promoted to the Majors for the first time in his career, he has a 6.20 ERA (5.78 xFIP) in four starts. Arrieta has given up 20 hits with a walk rate of 5.31 BB/9 in 20.1 innings. He’s shown a good fastball, but he’s struggled to command both his slider and his change-up.


Backstop Depth: Yankees versus Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays organization has received some attention recently for its strong catching depth throughout the minor leagues. The club’s division mate and hated rival – aka the New York Yankees organization – has some pretty impressive depth behind the dish, as well. Let’s compare the two systems in regards to this common area of strength.

Edit: Since first publishing the post, I’ve added J.R. Murphy to the analysis at the behest of Yankees fans. I originally chose to include just one catcher per organization per level. I chose to go with just Kyle Higashioka because Murphy has played more games at DH (19) than catcher (14). After re-thinking it, I’ve included both prospects, but it does not alter the conclusions of the article.

AAA

New York Yankees
The Yankees’ best hitting prospect is also the triple-A catcher: Jesus Montero. Despite all the hype, he has shown his human side at the plate this season with a triple-slash line of .235/.298/.378 in 230 at-bats. Montero’s also struck out more times in 2010 (48) than he did all of last year (47 times in 347 at-bats). However, he is just 20 years old and has also been focusing on improving his defense. Montero’s 30+ home run potential is still there, as is his ability to hit .280-.300.

Toronto Blue Jays
J.P. Arencibia is arguably the organization’s best hitting prospect (although you could also make a case for Brett Wallace or even Travis d’Arnaud, whom we’ll discuss in a moment). Arencibia got off to a bit of a slow start in 2010 and was also coming off of a poor triple-A showing in ’09. The 24-year-old has posted a 1.157 OPS with seven homers in June and has an overall triple-slash line of .289/.340/.566 in 242 at-bats. Arencibia has also improved significantly on defense since his college days to the point where many consider him an above-average defensive catcher.

Edge: Montero. If you want to toss a wrinkle into the argument, you could point out that Montero is not likely to remain behind the dish when he reaches the Majors. However, he’s still catching in triple-A, so he’s technically still a catcher until they pry the tools of ignorance away from him. Although Arencibia is the better all-around player, Montero’s offensive ceiling is much higher than the Toronto prospect’s.

AA

New York Yankees
Austin Romine is working hard to show why some analysts consider him a better prospect than Montero (mainly due to his defensive value). I’m not 100% convinced in that way of thinking but you definitely have to see Romine as a special player. Just 21, he’s currently hitting .294/.360/.447 and 20 of his 67 hits have gone for doubles. He also has 39 RBI in 57 games. Romine’s brother Andrew plays in the Angels’ system and father Kevin played parts of seven seasons in the Majors.

Toronto Blue Jays
Brian Jeroloman, 25, has made the best of a difficult situation. The organization has Arencibia in triple-A and it wants the defensive whiz to play everyday so he’s stuck repeating double-A for a third year. He’s also coming off a terrible ’09 season in which he posted a .646 OPS. Always known for having a patient approach, the organization felt he was being too passive and letting too many good pitches go by. He’s made adjustments in ’10 and, while he’s still walking at a good clip, his new approach has worked wonders for his overall numbers: .300/.459/.494 in 160 at-bats.

Edge: Romine. Jeroloman’s defense was always good enough to make him a sure-fire MLB catcher, and now his offensive boost increases his value that much more… but Romine has proven to be a special player. He has shown skill both behind the plate and with a bat in his hand… and both his age and bloodlines give him a big boost in terms of value.

A+

New York Yankees
This is the weak spot in the Yankees’ catching depth. The everyday catcher in Tampa has been Mitch Abeita, a 19th round draft pick out of the University of Nebraska in 2008. He has a 2010 triple-slash line of .244/.351/.314.

Toronto Blue Jays
Travis d’Arnaud’s numbers are not quite as impressive as they were earlier in the season, but the 21-year-old catcher has also battled some back issues (which sidelined him in May). Even so, the right-handed batter has a respectable triple-slash line of .276/.330/.436 in 163 at-bats. Even better, the organization has been impressed with his defense and on-field leadership. He could end up being the key to the Roy Halladay trade with Philly.

Edge: d’Arnaud. With apologies to Abeita, it’s not close at all. The Jays backstop projects to be an all-around, above-average backstop.

A-

New York Yankees
Kyle Higashioka received an above-slot deal as a seventh-round pick out of a California high school in ’08 based on his solid defensive reputation and raw power potential. Not much has changed since then. Higashioka continues to show more on defense than offense and is currently hitting just .194/.277/.304 in 217 at-bats. He needs to learn to hit the ball the other way a little more consistently. By no means a lost cause, the University of California recruit is still just 20 years old and would just be finishing his sophomore year of college.

J.R. Murphy began the year in extended spring training before being moved up to low-A ball to play with Higashioka. The right-handed hitting catcher is currently producing a triple-slash line of .250/.299/.318 in 132 at-bats. Clearly, the offensive numbers are not that impressive right now but he has a lot of potential. The Yankees organization grabbed him out of a Florida high school with a second round pick in the ’09 draft. He’s spent 19 games as a DH and 14 games as a catcher this season. While behind the plate, Murphy has thrown out just 21% of base runners.

Toronto Blue Jays
Like Jeroloman, A.J. Jimenez has been stuck in the depth crunch. d’Arnaud’s presence in high-A is keeping Puerto Rico native in low-A ball for a second straight season. In ’09, Jimenez hit .263/.280/.356 in 278 at-bats. This year, the 20-year-old catcher is hitting .308/.356/.456 in 182 at-bats. He also has a career-high 39 RBI in 50 games. A ninth-round pick during the 2008 draft, Jimenez slid due to health concerns (there was a fear that he would have to undergo Tommy John surgery) but he’s been OK and has even thrown out 54% of base runners in ’10.

Edge: Jimenez. Again, don’t give up on Higashioka or Murphy… The Toronto catcher is just much further along in his development at this time. Jimenez has a good defensive reputation, is a solid athlete, and is turning into a respectable hitter who has made adjustments at the plate.

Short-Season Leagues

New York Yankees
Just 17 years old, Gary Sanchez has already put the baseball world on notice. The offensive-minded catcher is batting .353 with two homers through four Gulf Coast League games. He also has eight RBI. It’s easy to see why he was one of the top international free agents in 2009; he signed for $2.5 million and could end up being a steal.

Toronto Blue Jays
Carlos Perez has one of the highest ceilings of any catcher in short-season ball, which is saying a lot. He’s a solid defensive catcher and he has a great eye at the plate. The 19-year-old Venezuela native hit .291/.364/.433 during his state-side debut in ’09 and he’s hitting .360 with seven RBI and eight runs scored through six New York Penn League games in ’10.

Edge: Let’s call this one a draw. Sanchez may have a higher offensive ceiling, and could easily skyrocket up this chart within 12 months, but we also have 2+ years of very impressive data on Perez. The Yankees prospect is in his first pro season, so I’m admittedly being a little cautious (not to be confused with homer-ism).

* * *

Conclusion: Taking into consideration both depth and overall talent ceiling, I’d give the Jays organization a slight edge, as the club really does have solid prospects at five different levels, where the Yankees system tops out with three solid catching prospects at five levels. New York, though, does have two or the top three catching prospects. There really aren’t any true winners or losers in this; both organizations have enviable catching depth.

Top 10 NYY/TOR Catching Prospects:
1. Jesus Montero, New York
2. J.P. Arencibia, Toronto
3. Austin Romine, New York
4. Travis d’Arnaud, Toronto
5. A.J. Jimenez, Toronto
6/7. Gary Sanchez, New York/Carlos Perez, Toronto
8. Brian Jeroloman, Toronto
9. J.R. Murphy, New York
10. Kyle Higashioka, New York

*In fairness a small caveat applies: I am a Canadian and I have covered the Jays’ minor league system extensively for about seven years. I have tried to remain objective, so take that for what it’s worth…


The DeRosa Effect (Revisited)

Utility player Mark DeRosa has gotten around. The veteran has played with six clubs during his 12-year career. He was swapped twice within a six month period in 2008-09. DeRosa was first traded from the Chicago Cubs to the Cleveland Indians in December of ’08 and then from Cleveland to the St. Louis Cardinals in June of ’09.

In his half season with Cleveland, DeRosa provided a WAR of 1.4; he followed that up with a 0.3 WAR in half a season with St. Louis. So far this season for the San Francisco Giants (with whom he signed as a free agent), the former Atlanta Braves draft pick has seen his WAR fall into the negative at -0.3.

In those two aforementioned trades, five young players – four of whom were true “prospects” – changed hands. Although it’s been almost a year since DeRosa played for Cleveland and a good amount of time since he suited up for Chicago, let’s have a look and see what lasting effect – if any – he’s had on those two organizations (I last reviewed the Chicago side of the trade in July ’09).

Chicago received three young pitchers when it traded DeRosa to Cleveland: Jeff Stevens, John Gaub, and Chris Archer. Impressively, all three pitchers are still in the organization, and everyone has seen a bump in their value to the organization.

Stevens has been the most valuable to date. The 26-year-old reliever has had a neutral WAR (at exactly 0.0 for his career) but he’s looked good this season and could develop into a solid middle reliever. The right-hander has pitched 14.1 innings since being recalled in May. He went nine games before he allowed an earned run, but he then allowed runs in three straight games before tossing a scoreless frame on June 23. Stevens currently has an xFIP of 4.52, an average ground-ball rate, and a respectable strikeout rate of 7.53 K/9. His fastball has sat around 91 mph but he’s struggled to command his secondary pitches on a consistent basis.

Gaub, 25, has been a real find for the Cubs. The organization has yet to challenge him in the Majors, but the southpaw looks like he’ll be solid middle reliever or LOOGY. In ’09, he allowed 36 hits and struck out 80 batters in 60.0 combined innings between double-A and triple-A. Gaub handled left-handed batters very well in ’08 and ’09 but he’s struggled in a small-sample size in 2010. Lefties have batted .394 against him this season; he needs to show more consistent command of his slider – which can be a plus (strikeout) pitch. Despite his command and control (18 walks) issues, Gaub has a 3.52 FIP, 35 strikeouts and has given up 24 hits in 26.0 innings of work.

Gaub was the breakout player in ’09 and Archer is looking like the breakout star of ’10. Pitching in high-A ball, the right-handed starter currently has a 3.17 FIP and has given up just 49 hits in 66.1 innings of work. He’s also posted a solid ground-ball rate (51%), and has an excellent strikeout rate (10.21 K/9). The 21-year-old Archer also showed a high strikeout rate (9.83 K/9) in low-A ball in ’09. His fastball can reach 95-96 mph and his curveball is becoming more consistent. He’s still quite unrefined but Archer has solid potential as a big league starter.

Like Chicago, the Cleveland organization still retains all the pieces from the late 2008 trade: Chris Perez and Jess Todd, both pitchers.

Perez has pretty much been a neutral reliever for Cleveland, in terms of WAR (0.1). Traded in mid-2009, he showed solid numbers in half a season with Cleveland, which included a 3.85 xFIP, 10.26 K/9 rate and a 6.48 H/9 rate. The right-hander has taken a larger role in the bullpen this season, including filling in for injured and ineffective closer Kerry Wood, but Perez’ numbers have not been as good as they were in ’09. He currently has a 5.30 xFIP and he’s allowing more than one hit per nine innings over last season’s rate. His strikeout rate has also dropped to 6.33 K/9. His pitches (fastball and slider) have just not been as reliable this season, although his overall control has held steady.

Todd, a former second round pick out of the University of Arkansas, has always posted good numbers in the minors. He stumbled in his MLB debut in ’09 and posted a 7.66 ERA (but 4.47 xFIP) with a hit rate of 13.70 H/9 in 22.1 innings. He struggled with the home run (1.61 HR/9), as well, but showed a solid strikeout rate at 8.06 K/9. He produced a neutral WAR at 0.0. Todd simply needs to show better fastball/cutter command in the Majors. In 2010 at triple-A, the right-handed reliever has given up 33 hits and 11 walks in 31.1 innings. He also has 33 strikeouts.

To complete the effect that DeRosa has had on his former organizations, we must look to the 2010 draft. The St. Louis Cardinals organization received a first round supplemental draft pick for the loss of DeRosa (a Type B free agent) to San Francisco. With that selection (46th overall), St. Louis acquired the rights to Arizona State University pitcher Seth Blair. The club has yet to come to terms with the right-hander, although he was ineligible to sign a pro contract while his school competed in the College World Series (ASU was eliminated on June 22).


Futures Game Preview: The U.S. Pitchers

In two weeks, Dave Cameron and I will be flying to Los Angeles to see the Futures Game, and we’ll bring you exclusive content from Angel Stadium while we’re there. As you’d expect, the announcement of the rosters was of great interest to us, so I will do my best to cover them in four parts: pitchers and hitters for both the U.S. and World teams. This is my third Futures Game, and while it’s just an All-Star Game, I’m eagerly anticipating watching these pitchers give their best for one inning, and these hitters try to deal with some of the best stuff in the minor leagues. Here’s a look at that stuff on the American side, ranked in order of the velocity they’ll throw.

Tanner Scheppers | RHP | Age 23 | Texas Rangers | AA/AAA (Tex/PCL)
38.8 K% | 8.6 BB% | 0.48 HR/9

What an inning will look like: Scheppers will be the guy to test triple digits, and I truly wouldn’t be surprised to see 90% fastballs if he makes it to Anaheim. He’s got a nasty curveball that we might see on a two-strike count, particularly to any right-handed hitters.

What he profiles as: While the hope is still that Scheppers could be a starting pitcher, I believe his move to the bullpen is no temporary assignment — his future is either closer or set-up man, depending on how the Rangers handle Neftali Feliz. Scheppers will always be death on right-handed hitters, and his hard fastball and sharp curve arsenal could lend to a Joel Zumaya-like future.

Shelby Miller | RHP | Age 19 | St. Louis Cardinals | Low-A (Midwest)
33.7 K% | 8.1 BB% | 0.44 HR/9 | 1.37 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: It’s going to be similar to Scheppers, with a ton of fastballs, probably touching about 97 mph if he’s going all-out for an inning. What secondary stuff we’ll see I don’t know — but his curveball is the other plus pitch.

What he profiles as: Obviously Miller is far away, but he’s going to be a good one. Ignore the 4.79 ERA in Low-A, as the River Bandits defense is horrible, and he’s currently sporting a .389 BABIP. What’s encouraging to me is the .233/.296/.356 line he’s held left-handed hitters to — either the changeup has improved immensely, or he’s just got a great approach to lefties. Hopefully we’ll get an idea in Anaheim.

Jarred Cosart | RHP | Age 20 | Philadelphia Phillies | Low-A (Sally)
29.3 K% | 5.2 BB% | 0.38 HR/9 | 1.89 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: Given that his secondary stuff is probably the weakest of the bunch, Cosart is going to go after hitters with his fastball on pretty much every pitch. But he’ll flirt with 98 mph, and his lower arm slot will create a bit of deception.

What he profiles as: Until the secondary stuff comes around, it’s hard to see Cosart as anything but a reliever down the road. He’s been able to dominate Sally League hitters with his unique combination of velocity, command and movement on the heater, so if he grabs hold of a breaking ball, he’s got a good chance.

Jordan Lyles | RHP | Age 19 | Houston Astros | Double-A (Texas)
23.8 K% | 5.6 BB% | 0.62 HR/9 | 1.12 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: It’s not everyday we get to hand Astros fans good news, but I really think there is a non-zero chance that Dave and I will walk away from Anaheim most impressed with Lyles. Dude has a great build, commands a fastball that could push 95 mph in one inning, and his changeup has got really good. He also has the chance to hang a curveball and give up a long ball, however.

What he profiles as: Lyles is going to be starting in the big leagues late next season, and he’s a special talent. All six home runs allowed this year have been to right-handed hitters, so it’s clear that his fastball-change approach to lefties is currently better than the fastball-curveball option he gives right-handed hitters. He’ll give up some home runs in Minute Maid, but the good command should balance it out just fine.

Christian Friedrich | LHP | Age 22 | Colorado Rockies | Double-A (Texas)
21.2 K% | 8.8 BB% | 0.93 HR/9 | 0.83 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: Friedrich’s curveball will be on the highlight reel for sure, as it’s one of the best in the minor leagues. I’m guessing we’ll see him throw it for a strike and in the dirt, while pitching around 92 mph with the fastball. Someone on the broadcast will probably say Barry Zito; though I’m not sure if that will be reflective of the quality of the broadcast or Friedrich’s future.

What he profiles as: The lefty has been scuffed up a bit in Double-A after a hot start, with his ERA rising to 5.59 after last night’s start. Too many walks and too many home runs is a frustrating combination, and I think Friedrich just needs the confidence in his changeup to have three pitches to throw at righties. He’ll be alright, but he’s more a mid-rotation guy.

Dan Hudson | RHP | Age 23 | Chicago White Sox | Triple-A (International)
31.6 K% | 7.7 BB% | 1.30 HR/9 | 1.18 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: Hudson has the most TV-friendly delivery of any American pitcher, as he slings it from a three-quarter arm slot. The preseason comparison Baseball America made to Jered Weaver is apt, as it’s deception that we’ll walk away impressed with. He’ll mix in a slider and changeup, too.

What he profiles as: Hudson’s delivery and velocity got him a lot of groundballs at Old Dominion in college, but it’s clear now that he’s a flyball pitcher. The home runs are going to be a problem, and the secondary stuff still could stand some sharpening. Is it too early to predict a high infield fly rate?

Zach Britton | LHP | Age 22 | Baltimore Orioles | Double-A (Eastern)
19.5 K% | 8.0 BB% | 0.46 HR/9 | 3.19 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: Britton is going to throw a lot of sinkers, if not a sinker on every single pitch. But it’s for a good reason, as Jeff Sackmann currently has his GB% at 65.2%. The depth of his slider will be something to look for, as it sits between average-and-plus depending on the day. But the depth of the slider is a foregone conclusion.

What he profiles as: The successes that we’ve seen from Jaime Garcia and Ricky Romero and C.J. Wilson bode well for Britton, who could be pretty similar to the Rangers southpaw at the big league level. He could stand to improve his walk rate a little, but it’s not a huge issue. He could be pitching just fine in the Majors right now.

Jeremy Hellickson | RHP | Age 23 | Tampa Bay Rays | Triple-A (International)
27.7 K% | 5.8 BB% | 0.30 HR/9 | 0.77 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: If the Rays don’t heed Jonah Keri’s request and keep Hellickson in the minor leagues, we already know who the most poised pitcher in the game will be. Hellickson has three pitches, he’ll mix them all in during any count, and he’ll confuse the hell out of the less experienced World hitters.

What he profiles as: Hellickson could be a fine big league pitcher yesterday, as his command and ability to keep the ball down are really good skills. I do wonder if his strikeout rate will still be this good in the Majors, though his ability to throw fastball-change-curve in any situation is a rare skill. FIP is going to like this guy.

Mike Minor | LHP | Age 22 | Atlanta Braves | Double-A (Southern)

34.7 K% | 9.9 BB% | 0.90 HR/9 | 0.98 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: Since Minor’s numbers are nothing like we envisioned from last year’s seventh overall pick, I’m not sure I could accurately summarize what we’ll see. But my guess is that his curveball, which was just an average pitch to scouts a year ago, has become a plus offering.

What he profiles as: I think I’ll have a better idea after the game. His fastball command has taken a turn south while his strikeout numbers are now out-of-this-world. It’s just a performance that doesn’t make sense across the board, and as a result, he’s the guy I’m most anticipating.


Scouting the Short-Season Leagues

Short-season leagues around Minor League Baseball are in full swing now. Some leagues – like the Dominican Summer League – have played more than 20 games, while others – like the Gulf Coast League – have managed just two games so far. Let’s have a look at some of the interesting names found within these low-level leagues. Small sample size warning clearly applies.

Dominga Santana, OF, Philadelphia
Considered by FanGraphs as the Phillies’ 12th best prospect entering 2010 (and ninth by Baseball America), Santana had a solid debut season in the Gulf Coast League in ’09. The outfielder hit .288/.388/.508 at the age of just 16(!). Well, five games into the New York Penn League season he’s third in the league in hitting at .471 (17 at-bats). Santana is a potential five-tool player, with a strong arm, although the 6’5” outfielder projects to lose speed as he fills out.

Michael Ynoa, RHP, Oakland
Signed for more than $4 million in ’08, Ynoa had yet to throw a pitch in pro ball until the 2010 season. Injury concerns caused the organization to go slow with the big right-hander but he’s still just 18 years old. The Dominican Republic native faced the Angels’ rookie league club on June 21 and he allowed just one hit (no walks) in three innings and struck out four batters. The organization will continue to be cautious with Ynoa, so he’ll likely be a slow mover through the system.

Carlos Perez, C, Toronto
Another international find, Perez made his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League in ’08 as a 17-year-old catcher and he showed an outstanding approach at the plate for his age, with a line of .306/.459/.378. He also walked 52 times with just 28 strikeouts in a league where most of the hitters are extremely aggressive. Last season in rookie ball, Perez hit .291/.364/.433 in 141 at-bats and showed solid defensive skills behind the plate. Toronto continues to go slow with the talented catcher as he’s currently playing in the New York Penn League and has a 1.150 OPS and has scored a league-leading eight runs through five games. Toronto has impressive catching depth in the minors with J.P. Arencibia, Travis d’Arnaud, A.J. Jimenez, and Perez.

Kolbrin Vitek, 3B, Boston
I love to see draft prospects sign quickly and get on with their pro careers. Vitek is one of nine first-round picks from 2010 that have jumped at the chance to play pro ball. He’s hitting .333 through five games and has been playing third base. Fellow third baseman Jedd Gyorko had an outside shot of going in the first round in 2010, but he slid to the Padres in the second round. He has a 1.350 OPS and the league lead with two homers through five games in the Northwest League.

Miguel Sano, SS, Minnesota
One of the top 2009 international free agents ($3.15 million), Sano was left in the Dominican Summer League this season by the Twins and he’s hitting like he wants a ticket north. The recently turned 17-year-old infielder is currently hitting .341/.444/.636 through 44 at-bats. He’s struck out 14 times, but he’s also taken eight free passes through 14 games.

Yeicok Calderon, OF, New York AL
New York shelled out cash to a number of talented international free agents in ’08 and Calderon was one of the them, although he was not considered the top player in the group. In fact, he did not even make Baseball America’s Top 30 prospects list for the organization. After a solid debut in ’09 in which he hit .321/.440/.415 in 193 at-bats in the Dominican Summer League, Calderon is making a statement in 2010 and he clearly wants to move stateside in 2011. He’s leading the DSL in homers with five (he hit three in 55 games last year) and he has a .956 OPS through 18 games.


Reviewing the ’09 First Round, part 2

Well, the 2010 draft is in the books and teams are now madly trying to sign their top picks. To celebrate the influx of new talent, we’re looking back to the first round of the ’09 draft and checking in on each player’s progress to date. Yesterday, we looked at the first 16 players chosen in the draft. Today, we’ll look at the final 16.

17. A.J. Pollock, OF, Arizona
Pollock jumped out to a solid start in his pro debut in ’09 at low-A ball but he’s projected to miss all of 2010 after hurting himself in spring training.

18. Chad James, LHP, Florida
James isn’t as flashy as some of the other ’09 prep pitchers, but he’s looked good in low-A ball. He has 42 strikeouts in 38.2 innings and has given up just 34 hits. Right-handers are hitting just .226 against him.

19. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis
Miller has performed well in low-A with a limited pitch count, but he’s also been pretty inconsistent. He needs to be more efficient with his pitches, but he’s also a strikeout pitcher so those totals will always be high. Miller started out the year with very good ground-ball rates but he’s become more of a fly-ball pitcher lately.

20. Chad Jenkins, RHP, Toronto
The Jays organization has a new go-slow approach with its young players so Jenkins, 22, began the 2010 season in low-A. His performance has been somewhat underwhelming so far with 87 hits allowed in 79.1 innings of work. He also has 63 strikeouts. On the plus side, he’s issued just 13 walks and has a solid ground-ball rate (55%).

21. Jiovanni Mier, SS, Houston
Mier performed well in his debut in the Appy league in 2009, but he has slumped terribly this season and is batting just .199/.297/.252 in 226 at-bats. After hitting seven homers in his debut, he has yet to go deep in 2010. He’s also stolen just five bases in eight tries, after posting double-digit steals in ’09.

22. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota
Gibson began the year by dominating high-A ball with 33 hits and 12 walks allowed in 43.1 innings. The right-hander also had 40 strikeouts and a ground-ball rate of 68%. Moved up to double-A, his worm-burning rate is still good at 55%, but his strikeout rate has dropped and he’s given up 45 hits and 11 walks in 41.0 innings. Those are still good numbers, but they’re not quite as eye-popping.

23. Jared Mitchell, OF, Chicago AL
Like Pollock, Mitchell injured himself this spring and will miss the entire regular season.

24. Randal Grichuk, OF, Los Angeles AL
Earlier this season, Grichuk was having trouble living up to his solid debut numbers for ’09. He was hitting just .229/.280/.431 in 109 at-bats. Grichuk was then placed onto the disabled list in early May and hasn’t played since. He hurt his thumb and is expected back in early August.

25. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles, AL
Trout has been one of the breakout players from the ’09 draft. He hit .360/.418/.506 in his debut in ’09 and is currently hitting .360/.440/.546 with 33 steals in 39 tries. The speedy outfielder also projects to have solid power. Take his career batting average with a grain of salt, though. His career BABIP is over .400 and should come down over time despite his good speed.

26. Eric Arnett, RHP, Milwaukee
Arnett has been a disappointment to this point. The 22-year-old pitcher has been demoted to short-season ball after allowing 70 hits and 20 walks in 56.1 low-A innings. Right-handers were hitting .340 against him.

27. Nick Franklin, SS, Seattle
Franklin has been a surprise star in low-A ball this season. The teenage shortstop is currently showing above-average power with 13 homers in 255 at-bats and he has a triple-slash line of .306/.350/.553. The switch-hitter also has double-digit steals and looks like a potential 20-20 player. On the downside, he has just 17 walks compared to 50 strikeouts.

28. Reymond Fuentes, OF, Boston
Fuentes has a respectable triple-slash line of .274/.322/.400 and 25 steals in 26 tries but he’s going to have to tweak his aggressive approach at the plate. The speedster has walked nine times with 54 strikeouts, which is not going to cut it for a lead-off hitter.

29. Slade Heathcott, OF, New York AL
Heathcott, 19, began the year in extended spring training but headed to low-A ball in June. He’s currently hitting .327/.397/.418 in 55 at-bats.

30. LeVon Washington, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay
Washington failed to sign with Tampa Bay and went to junior college, after failing to meet the academic requirements to attend a four-year college. The speedy player had an OK offensive season in junior college and was picked up by Cleveland in the second round of the ’10 draft.

31. Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago NL
After hitting .318 in his debut in ’09, Jackson has continued to perform well in ’10. At high-A ball, he currently has a triple-slash line of .292/.404/.451 in 233 at-bats. He has an impressive walk total at 41 but the strikeouts are dangerously high (61) for someone with gap power. Jackson has stolen 11 bases in 17 tries.

32. Tim Wheeler, OF, Colorado
Wheeler has posted modest numbers in 2010 at high-A ball. He’s currently hitting .253/.351/.394 with six homers and 12 steals in 62 games. The left-handed hitter is batting just .210 against southpaws.


Reviewing the ’09 First Round

Well, the 2010 draft is in the books and teams are now madly trying to sign their top picks. Let’s have a quick look back to the ’09 draft and see how all the first-round picks are making out. We’ll look at the first 16 players today (Thursday) and check out the final 16 on Friday.

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
As you know, Mr. Strasburg is already in the Majors after dominating the high minors. He’s more than held his own with the Nationals and has given up a hit rate of just 4.38 H/9 through two starts while posting a strikeout rate of 16.05. And did I mention his fastball is sitting at 98 mph? Yeah, he’s pretty good.

2. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle
Ackley got off to a much slower start than Strasburg and posted a batting average of just .147 in 20 April games. But the light switched on in May and he’s hit more than .300 since the end of April. His current triple-slash line is .252/.395/.374 in 206 at-bats in double-A.

3. Donavan Tate, OF, San Diego
The first-round curse continues for San Diego; the club’s best first-round picks in the last 10 years were Khalil Greene and Tim Stauffer. Tate has suffered through no fewer than three mild-to-serious injuries since signing and he has yet to make his debut, which was supposed to begin in low-A at the beginning of April.

4. Tony Sanchez, C, Pittsburgh
In terms of pure numbers, Sanchez has been one of the more successful ’09 first rounders. Currently in high-A, the catcher is angling for a promotion while hitting .311/.411/.439 with 16 doubles in 196 at-bats.

5. Matt Hobgood, RHP, Baltimore
Baltimore passed over more highly regarded prep arms to snag the cheaper Hobgood (in order to spread the draft budget around). The results haven’t been great in low-A. Hobgood has a 4.93 FIP and just 42 strikeouts in 64.1 innings. On the plus side, he has a solid ground-ball rate at 57%.

6. Zach Wheeler, RHP, San Francisco
Wheeler has flashed some very encouraging skills on the mound, but inconsistency and command continues to elude him. The right-hander has struck out a lot of batters, with 33 whiffed in 26.2 innings, but he’s also walked 17. His 61% ground-ball rate is also impressive. He’ll continue to move along slowly.

7. Mike Minor, LHP, Atlanta
Despite a poor record and high-ish ERA (both of which don’t tell you much about the quality of a minor league pitcher), Minor has had a very successful season. Improved secondary pitches, fastball velocity, and command have helped the Braves prospect to lead the Southern League in strikeouts. His ceiling has risen from the previously predicted No. 3 starter slot.

8. Mike Leake, RHP, Cincinnati
Like Strasburg, Leake is currently pitching in a big league starting rotation. What’s more impressive, though, is that he’s done it since the beginning of the 2010 season and never did pitch in the minors. Leake is nowhere near as dominating as the first overall pick, but he has a nice ground-ball rate of 51% and a respectable xFIP at 4.28.

9. Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit
Often likened to Detroit’s ’08 first rounder Rick Porcello, Turner is not as advanced and will ascend through the minors at a much slower rate. He was derailed earler this season by injury (not serious) but has looked good since returning in May. He currently has a nice 2.88 FIP and has walked just eight batters in 48.1 innings of work.

10. Drew Storen, RHP, Washington
The Washington organization received great value with this unprotected pick (for failing to sign Aaron Crow in ’08). The right-handed reliever breezed through the minors and has already asserted himself in the Nats bullpen. He’s not a finished product just yet, though, and he has a 5.17 xFIP through 12 appearances.

11. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Colorado
Considered the best prep arm by many, Matzek slid to the Rockies due to perceived bonus demands. The club, though, got him signed rather easily. He did not make his pro debut until late May 2010 after signing late in ’09 and then spending extra time in extended spring training at the beginning of this season. Matzek has a 4.47 FIP and 27 Ks in 23.2 innings through five starts.

12. Aaron Crow, RHP, Kansas City
College pitchers take a real risk when they walk away from a large contract offer and head off to prove themselves in independent baseball. Crow has struggled since signing with KC, after following that route when he failed to sign with Washington as a first round pick in ’08. The right-hander currently has a 4.59 FIP and has struggled with his control (35 walks in 74.0 innings). His ground-ball rate is awesome at 71%.

13. Grant Green, SS, Oakland
Considered the top shortstop in the draft, Green has performed well in high-A ball this season. He’s currently hitting .310/.361/.455 in 268 at-bats. On the downside, Green has struck out a bit much (20% K rate) for his modest power output and it would be nice to see him be a little more patient at the plate (6.4% BB rate).

14. Matt Purke, LHP, Texas (Did Not Sign)
The success of Tanner Scheppers, a supplemental first round pick from ’09, has helped to lessen the sting of losing Purke, but Texas fans may want to look away now. Purke headed off to Texas Christian University in the fall of ’09 and has developed into a potential Top 5 pick (depending on his signability) for the 2011 draft, as he will be a somewhat rare draft-eligible sophomore. This season as a freshman, Purke posted a 3.37 FIP with 81 hits allowed, a walk rate of 2.55 BB/9, and a strikeout rate of 11.52 K/9 in 95.1 innings.

15. Alex White, RHP, Cleveland
Cleveland hasn’t had a ton of luck drafting college pitchers in the past few years but it looks to have scored with White. The right-hander posted a 3.96 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in eight high-A starts before moving up to double-A. At the higher level, he has a 4.52 FIP and 0.88 WHIP in five games.

16. Bobby Borchering, 3B, Arizona
Supplemental first round pick, and fellow prep third baseman, Matt Davidson has had more statistical success so far, but don’t count out Borchering. The 19-year-old prospect is holding his own in low-A with a triple-slash line of .252/.321/.395 in 238 at-bats.


Hot Prospects at the Hot Corner

With news that Pedro Alvarez could be in Pittsburgh within a week, it’s time to start considering candidates for the new No. 1 third base prospect in the minors. Below are five third basemen (plus two bonus prospects) that have been performing well.

Mike Moustakas | Kansas City: Some could argue that Moustakas is already a better prospect than Alvarez. The former No. 1 pick has been on fire this season despite missing much of April due to injury. The left-handed hitter is currently batting .339/.416/.678 with 14 homers in 45 double-A games. Moustakas has been a real run producer in the minors with 54 RBI in 45 games, and a 1.531 OPS with runners in scoring position. He is, though, hitting just .250 in June. If Moustakas can stick at the hot corner, he could be a real stud for the organization. If not, things could get crowded in the outfield.

Miguel Sano | Minnesota: Let’s slide all the way down to the Dominican Summer League where we can find the 17-year-old Sano. One of the top international signees in ’09, the right-handed hitter is holding his own with a triple-slash line of .314/.405/.600 through 11 games. The 6’3” teenager is showing above-average power for his age and even has five walks, which shows good patience for the level he’s playing at. Sano will be stateside before you know it.

Matt Dominguez | Florida: The former 12th-overall pick from the ’07 draft is not lighting the world on fire, but he’s been performing well. Dominguez may never hit for a high average but the above-average fielder is showing good pop with 19 doubles and nine homers. He has a triple-slash line of .247/.322/.455 in 231 at-bats. Keep in mind that Dominguez is still just 20 and playing in double-A.

Matt Davidson | Arizona: One of my personal favorites, Davidson was a supplemental first round pick out of a California high school in ’09. He received a lot of attention after hitting .354/.393/.500 in April but he struck out 21 times with just one walk. The adjustments he’s made since then are nothing short of amazing. Davidson then walked 13 times in May (but with 33 strikeouts) and has since followed that up with seven walks and just six strikeouts through 11 June games. Overall, he’s hitting .302/.380/.502 with good pop in 225 at-bats. What you have here is a smart, coachable player.

Cody Overbeck | Philadelphia: It’s hard to know exactly what the organization has with Overbeck. An over-ager at 24 and in high-A ball, the former University of Mississippi player was also repeating the level for the second straight year. He hit .302/.380/.553 with 11 homers in 215 at-bats. He also significantly improved both his strikeout and walk rates. Overbeck was promoted to double-A recently and made his debut on June 14. Keep an eye on him, as the second half of the minor league season will speak volumes in regards to his future potential.

AL Bonus: Keep an eye on Will Middlebrooks. A 2007 fifth-round pick out of a Texas high school, Boston gave him big money to keep him away from Texas A&M, where he would have played football, as well. He’s currently hitting .286/.360/.432 in 220 high-A at-bats after moving rather slowly during his first three pro seasons. He has very good raw power (18 doubles) but has yet to turn that into over-the-fence pop. Middlebrooks is still learning to identify and hit breaking balls. The 21-year-old has slowed down in June and is batting just .188 for the month.

NL Bonus: Recently known for developing pitching talent, the Rockies organization has some impressive hitters in the minors, too. Third baseman Nolan Arenado began the year in extended spring training but he’s been on fire since being activated in low-A ball. The 19-year-old is hitting .337/.367/.517 through 21 games. He’s also struck out just nine times. More than a third of his hits have been doubles (11 of 30). Arenado was a second round draft pick out of a California high school in ’09.


Meet the Most Talented Rotation in the Minors

The Atlanta Braves organization has a history of developing talented pitchers. After a lull over the past few seasons – which still resulted in the emergence of Tommy Hanson – the assembly line is running at full speed once again. And if you’re interested in finding the most talented starting rotation in all of minor league baseball, all you have to do is throw on your flip-flops and some swimming trunks and head on down to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. There you’ll find Randall Delgado, Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino, and J.J. Hoover.

Pre-season Braves Top 10 prospect ranking by FanGraphs in parentheses.

Randall Delgado, RHP (6)
The 20-year-old right-hander has had little trouble with hitters in the Carolina League. In the league, Delgado is currently first in innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP and second in ERA. He’s given up just 59 hits in 78.0 innings. He’s also shown exceptional control with just 17 walks issued to go along with 87 strikeouts. Right-handed batters are hitting .201 against him. The Panama native has an overpowering fastball that sits in the 90-95 mph range, and he also has a 54% ground-ball rate. That is a killer combination. Delgado’s repertoire also includes a plus curveball and a change-up.

Julio Teheran, RHP (3)
Just 19, this Columbia native began the year in low-A ball but dominated the competition with a 1.14 ERA (2.68 FIP) and .168 average-allowed. Moved up to Myrtle Beach in high-A ball, Teheran currently has a 1.69 ERA (2.16 FIP) with 29 hits and just five walks allowed in 32.0 innings. He’s also struck out 37 batters. He’s still working on becoming more consistent, but Teheran has been absolutely dominating at times with 12 strikeouts in one performance (7.0 IP) and 14 in another (8.0). The right-hander is more of a fly-ball pitcher and has a ground-ball rate of 40%. His repertoire includes an 89-94 mph fastball, curveball and change-up. Teheran is not quite as durable as Delgado and has dealt with some shoulder woes in the past.

Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (4)
The key to the Javier Vazquez deal (wouldn’t New York fans like this one back?), Vizcaino has broken out in a big way this season. The 19-year-old is not quite as projectable (6’0” 190 lbs) as Delgado and Teheran, but he has an advanced feel for pitching given his age. The right-hander began the year in low-A ball and walked just nine batters in 69.1 innings. He also added 66 strikeouts and allowed 60 hits. His FIP was 2.29 (2.34 ERA). Like Teheran, Vizcaino gets a fair number of fly-ball outs and he produced a ground-ball rate of 40%. Moved up to high-A recently, Vizcaino has made just one start and he gave up four runs on eight hits and a walk in 4.0 innings. His repertoire includes an 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball and change-up.

J.J. Hoover, RHP (11)
Hoover was the player pushed off of the FanGraphs’ Top 10 prospect list for the Braves when Vizcaino was acquired from the Yankees. Hoover was a 10th round draft pick out of a small community college during the 2008 draft. His stuff is not as electric as the other three pitchers on this list, but he commands his pitches and shows good control for his experience level. Hoover’s repertoire includes an 88-92 mph fastball, good change-up and curveball. The right-hander has given up 70 hits and 19 walks in 69.0 innings of work this season. He’s also struck out 53 batters. It would probably benefit him to improve his average ground-ball rate up into the 50-60% range, as he works up in the zone a little too much. That could come back to haunt him at higher levels of professional baseball.

The Myrtle Beach club also features a couple other interesting names to remember. Both Zeke Spruill and Cole Rohrbough have displayed solid potential in the past but inconsistencies and injuries have slowed their ascent through the minors. Both are currently on the disabled list after having struggled earlier in the year. Spruill came into ’10 as the No. 7 prospect on the team’s Top 10 list and was a second round draft pick out of a Georgia high school in ’08. Rohrbough zoomed up the prospect chart after a solid debut season in ’07 but has been unable to duplicate that success in subsequent seasons.


Carlos Santana Catches on with Cleveland

Don’t look now Dodger fans, but the ghost of the Casey Blake trade of 2008 is coming back to haunt.

Blake was traded from the Cleveland Indians to the Los Angeles Dodgers at mid-season in a deal that had me scratching my head from the moment in was announced. In return for Blake, the Indians received breakout prospect Carlos Santana and minor league reliever Jonathan Meloan. Perhaps the Dodgers did not feel that the catcher’s success was for real and was a result of playing in the potent California League.

Blake was by no means a terrible acquisition for the Dodgers. The veteran third baseman has accumulated 6.7 WAR during his less than two full seasons in Los Angeles. He produced the third highest WAR (4.6) amongst NL third basemen in ’09, and the seventh highest in the Majors. However, he’ll turn 37 years old this season and was, at the time of the trade, and impending free agent (who was later re-signed to a three-year, $17.5 million contract that also has an option for 2012).

Santana, on the other hand, has the chance to be one of the top offensive catchers in the American League for quite some time. Now we’re not talking Joe Mauer (8 WAR) good, but think Victor Martinez or Brian McCann good (4-5 WAR a year).

Less than two weeks ago, Indians GM Mark Shapiro was asked about a potential Santana promotion and he told a local Cleveland newspaper:

“While he continues to flourish offensively, defensively he continues to be a work in progress,” said Shapiro. “His offensive ability is so strong that we feel it’s important to utilize every day possible in the minor leagues to develop his defense. His game calling and leadership have made strides, but his throwing has to improve.”

I’m not sure what changed in eight days, or if it was just a smoke screen, but Santana will make his MLB debut tonight against Washington. Shapiro’s stated concerns about the young catcher’s defense are justified. He’s a converted fielder who has only been behind the dish since 2007 after spending much of his time in the outfield and at third base prior to the move. Over the past three seasons, Santana’s caught-stealing success rate has been 23%, 30%, and 23% so far this season in triple-A. Between ’07 and ’09, he allowed 45 passed balls but had given up just one so far this season, which suggests some improvement in the area of receiving. Santana has also reportedly improved his game-calling skills.

On offense, there is little to not like. At the time of his promotion, he had an OPS of 1.044 and his triple-slash line was .316/.447/.597 in 196 at-bats. Santana also currently has a walk rate of 18% and an ISO rate of .280, so he’s displayed both patience and power. Those rates are not out of line with what he’s posted over the past three seasons. The 24-year-old switch-hitter also does a nice job of limiting his strikeouts and his rate currently sits at 16%. It’s not often that you find a catcher that hits for power and strikes out less than he walks (and can hit more than .300).

In his career, he’s been very good against both right-handed and left-handed pitching. He has a career OPS of .960 against lefties and .879 against righties. A pitcher cannot take his eye off of Santana on the base paths, either. The catcher has gone 18-for-24 in stolen base attempts over the past three seasons.

Fellow rookie Lou Marson, obtained from Philly last year in the Cliff Lee trade, was demoted to triple-A to make room for Santana. Former Minnesota Twin and Florida Marlin Mike Redmond will continue to serve as the back-up in Cleveland. Marson, 24, did himself no favors by hitting .191/.268/.262 with a .253 wOBA in 141 at-bats.

With the promotion of Santana, we have now seen the majority of top 2009-10 prospects reach the Majors. Here is FanGraphs’ Top 10 prospects list, which was released prior to the 2010 season.

1. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
3. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
4. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins
5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
6. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers
7. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians
8. Jesus Montero, C/1B, New York Yankees
9. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates

As you can see, six of the 10 players are now in the Majors. Of those still in the minors, Brown could be the next prospect called up, if Philly can find room for him. If not, then Alvarez could beat him to The Show. Either way, a lot of talent has already been promoted to the Majors this season and the Top 100 prospects list is going to have a real different look to it in 2011.