Updating the June Call-Ups
There are no conspiracies in Major League Baseball… just large coincidences. One such coincidence was the significant number of top prospect call-ups in June. Many of these prospects now have close to a month’s worth of experience in the Majors, so it’s a perfect time to check in on them and see which players are positioning themselves to make a strong run at the Rookie of the Year awards.
Buster Posey, C, San Francisco
OK, we’re fudging the rules right off the bat here with Posey, who technically played three games in May. One of the top offensive prospects in baseball, he’s looked good at the MLB level and is currently hitting .310/.337/.414 in 87 at-bats. The Giants organization has already announced that Posey will see more time behind the dish going foward, which is great news for his overall value as he’s currently appeared in just three games as a catcher, compared to 21 games at first base.
Jason Castro, C, Houston
Castro is one of the most recent call-ups and he has just four games of MLB experience under his belt. The former No. 1 draft pick narrowly missed making the team out of spring training only to go down and struggle in triple-A with a triple-slash line of .226/.388/.245. Luckily for him, J.R. Towles failed in his bid to hold onto the big-league gig.
Pedro Alvarez, OF, Pittsburgh
Despite his brief pro career, Alvarez has a bit of a reputation as a slow starter. He hit poorly at high-A ball in ’09 before moving up to double-A and setting the world on fire. Then he opened up 2010 at triple-A and hit just .224/.298/.424 in April. His bat came to life in May and June, though, which earned him a shot at the Majors. Alvarez has struggled to make contact in his first 10 games. The former No. 1 draft pick has struck out 17 times in his first 35 at-bats. His triple-slash line currently sits at .114/.158/.171.
Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh
Tabata more or less reinvented himself at triple-A in 2010 by setting a career high in steals in just 53 games and also by hitting more than .300 with solid on-base numbers. Rewarded with his first taste of the Majors, Tabata has hit better than Alvarez but he’s still producing modest numbers. The former Yankees prospect is hitting .242/.299/.339 in 62 at-bats.
Mike Stanton, OF, Florida
The 20-year-old Stanton got a lot of people excited with his double-A numbers, which included 21 homers, a 1.171 OPS, and 52 RBI in 53 games. Unfortunately, a lot of people looked past the high strikeout rate. The Marlins’ top prospect is currently hitting just .213/.279/.311 in 61 at-bats. His strikeout rate sits at 47.5 K%. It definitely would have made a lot of sense to give him some time at triple-A before promoting him to the Majors.
Brad Lincoln, RHP, Florida
A former Top 5 pick in the amateur draft, Lincoln has been a little slower to develop than the organization had likely hoped. The right-hander produced good, but not great, numbers at triple-A this season, which was good enough to earn a shot in Pittsburgh. The MLB results have not been that great, though. Lincoln currently has a 5.95 xFIP and his ground-ball rate sits at 38%. His strikeout rate through four starts is just 3.00 K/9.
Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
Another pitcher with four MLB starts… but the results here are quite different. Despite having a BABIP-allowed of .358, Strasburg’s xFIP sits at 1.35 and his strikeout rate is 14.57 K/9 (with a walk rate of just 1.78 BB/9). So much for rookie jitters. Strasburg’s fastball has been sitting at 97.5 mph and he has positive pitch-type values for all three of his offerings (heater, curveball, change-up).
Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland
With apologies to Mr. Posey, Santana has probably had the biggest offensive impact of all the June call-ups… at least to this point. He has made a seamless transition to the Majors and is currently hitting .318/.446/.682 in 44 at-bats. Santana also has a 19.6% walk rate and has had more base-on-balls than strikeouts (1.83 BB/K rate). His wOBA sits at .472. The biggest knock on Santana is defense, but he’s thrown out 50% of base stealers with just one error and no passed balls.
Jake Arrieta, RHP, Baltimore
Arrieta finally began to turn potential into results in 2010 at triple-A. The right-hander produced a 1.85 ERA and gave up just 48 hits in 73.0 innings of work. Promoted to the Majors for the first time in his career, he has a 6.20 ERA (5.78 xFIP) in four starts. Arrieta has given up 20 hits with a walk rate of 5.31 BB/9 in 20.1 innings. He’s shown a good fastball, but he’s struggled to command both his slider and his change-up.
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
Curious about Super Two status, is it a strict service time mark, or compared to others between the two and three year mark? If it’s a % amongst those between 2 and 3, I wonder how the rash of call ups in June and there after change those numbers making it possibly bite a cost-conscious GM in the butt by leading the rush (say like Strasburg or Stanton)?
Super-Two is the top 17% of players with between 2 and 3 years of service time.
So then yes, there is greater risk in Posey reaching super two than Santana?
Yes, and also because of his time last year (which was a terrible idea, since the Giants called him up but didn’t really play him).
How about some mention about Johnathan Lucroy, rookie catcher for the Brewers? Ok technically he is a end of may call up, but he took over the starting role in June. Since he has taken over as catcher, the Brewers pitching has looked better (probably because guys like Suppan and Vargas were cut while Braddock and Axford were brought up, but Lucroy may have had some effect), he has caught 6 runners in 15 attempts, and has put up a line of .314/.344/.410 at the plate. I think he deserves some mention.
and Chris Nelson, Jarret Hoffpauair, Daniel Nava…
“There are no conspiracies in Major League Baseball… just large coincidences. One such coincidence was the significant number of top prospect call-ups in June. ”
Not to start a fire storm, but the article was written based on how TOP prospects call-ups are in June. Thus, it is not necessary to add every single player called up, because they are not all prospects.
Brad Lincoln should read Pittsburgh not Florida, you have it right in the paragraph but not the header. Just FYI not trying to be a nitpicker, thanks as always for the great write ups!
Why is Alvarez listed as an outfielder?
Alvarez plays third.
Madison Bumgarner???
“so it’s a perfect time to check in on them and see which players are positioning themselves to make a strong run at the Rookie of the Year awards.”
Bumgarner has 1 start this year, there is no reason to add him into this analysis, the other guys have been up for weeks.
Pedro’s fangraphs page doesn’t have his newest stats up
What about Andrew Cashner solidifying the Cubs bullpen? He’s thrown 12.1 innings and has a 0.2 WAR, including the Konerko homer. His fastball is consistently 95+, and both his slider and his seldom-used change look like damn fine complementary pitches. He definitely still projects as a starter in the future, but nonetheless is pretty impressive in this limited role.
And if Heyward ends up missing some more time and/or struggling with the thumb issue, that will give even more exposure to Cubs OF Tyler Colvin, who finally earned a more-or-less starting job in June and, despite only ~150 PA and ~300 defensive innings, has a 1.5 WAR.
Pretty amazing how Chicago went from being the team with the biggest absolute mess of a bullpen at the start of the season to having one of the more solid 7/8/9 bullpens in baseball as we near the halfway point. (Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall each have a 1.1 WAR, and both have been highly effective all season long.)
Carlos Santana is already the best catcher in baseball. He’s a power masher that walks a ton and strikes out very rarely (only 6 K in 48 AB entering today). Pretty much the perfect profile for an offensive player. He walks more than Mauer with far greater power. And he’s doing it with a very sustainable .308 BABIP, so .300/.400/.500 could easily be his true talent level.
The K rate will probably go up some as pitchers figure him out a little, but the patience and the power is for real, as it matches what he has done in the minors the last 3 years.
You can argue his defensive ability, but much of that is subjective anyway. I think he has Piazza upside offensively, so if he is even average defensively he will be the best catcher in baseball.
Sure, there is the issue of sample size, but I’m willing to go out on a limb and say he will be at least as good of a hitter as Victor Martinez.