June is just around the corner and Super-2 arbitration eligibility is going to expire shortly for a number of top prospects. As a result, you could see a few big names in the Majors within the first two weeks of the month. Let’s see how they’re currently doing in the minors.

Stephen Strasburg | RHP | Washington: You know you’re good when people start off a sentence with: “Strasburg actually allowed a run in triple-A…” In nine starts this season split between double-A and triple-A, the right-hander has allowed 22 hits and 10 walks in 45.1 innings of work. He has a 10.42 K/9 rate, as well as a 69% ground-ball rate, which gives a pretty good idea of why he’s been so dominant. The club could definitely use his help, as its best starter (Scott Olsen) is on the DL and Livan Hernandez is not going to keep pitching with a golden horseshoe shoved up his…

Jeremy Hellickson | RHP | Tampa Bay: Brian Joura is looking at the Hellickson situation in a little more depth over at RotoGraphs today. The 23-year-old right-hander has been dealing in triple-A all season long. He’s given up 53 hits and just 12 walks in 58.0 innings. He also has a strikeout rate of 9.64 K/9. A fly-ball pitcher with a 31.5% ground-ball rate, Hellickson has done a nice job avoiding the home-run ball (Just two have left the yard all season). The problem for Hellickson – which is great news for Rays fans – is that there is nowhere to pitch him. The starting rotation is probably the deepest and most talented in Major League Baseball.

Buster Posey | C | San Francisco: The Giants organization and General Manager Brian Sabean clearly don’t think a catcher can improve his defense while playing in the Major Leagues. Either that or it really is about Super-2. This line of thought just might cost the club a playoff berth. Posey’s defense definitely still needs some work behind the plate but he’s not useless back there and he’s hitting .344/.435/.525 with a in 160 at-bats. He’s also creaming lefties to the tune of a 1.222 OPS. Veteran MLB catcher Bengie Molina currently has a wOBA of .332 on the year, which is 14th in the Majors amongst catchers with 100 or more plate appearances (Or in other words, he’s been OK but not great). Why not let Molina catch 60% of the games with Posey handling the other 40%, while also seeing time at first base and/or third base?

Carlos Santana | C | Cleveland: Santana continues to challenge Posey for the title of Best Offensive Catcher in the minors. The Indians prospect is currently hitting .306/.440/.551 with nine homers and five steals in 147 at-bats. He also has 34 walks compared to 28 strikeouts. The switch-hitter swings well from the left side and has a .324 average against right-handed pitching. Santana has also been excellent with runners in scoring position, as his OPS jumps from .875 with the bases empty to 1.269 with men on second and/or third base. Current MLB catcher (and fellow rookie) Lou Marson has a wOBA of .255. Enough said.

Pedro Alvarez | 3B | Pittsburgh: The third baseman caught everyone’s attention early in the season with a power burst but he’s been pretty quiet since that time. Overall, he’s hitting just .248/.333/.497 with 10 homers in 165 at-bats. The left-handed hitter has struggled against southpaws with a .205 average (compared to .264 versus RHPs). Currently third baseman Andy LaRoche hasn’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut. His wOBA is just .311 through 35 games, which is one of the worst rates in the Majors at his position. However, Alvarez’ struggles could keep him in the minors until September.

It’s no secret that pitching has been a big problem for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season. The MLB club is last in the Majors in ERA (5.75), FIP (5.14), and has allowed the most hits in the Majors (455).

Of the pitchers currently in the starting rotation, Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, and Ian Kennedy have future value to the organization as starters. Cesar Valdez, Billy Buckner, Kris Benson and Rodrigo Lopez likely do not. The future of former ace Brandon Webb is up in the air due to his recent injury problems.

That leaves one or two starting rotation slots in flux. The organization does not have a lot of money to plug the hole(s) via free agency; the best thing is to look within. Unfortunately, the depth in the upper levels of the system is not good. With that said, there are a few arms in the system that could provide value to the big league club.

Wes Roemer: The right-hander was a supplemental first round pick out of Cal State Fullerton in 2007. He’s moved fairly slowly through the system given his pedigree but Roemer was recently promoted to triple-A after a strong start in double-A. The 23-year-old pitcher made 22 starts in double-A in ’09 and posted a 4.16 FIP with a modest strikeout rate of 6.5 K/9. This season at double-A, he allowed 52 hits in 52.2 innings with 11 walks and 43 strikeouts. Roemer has a modest repertoire (87-91 mph fastball, slider, change-up) but solid control (career 2.4 BB/9) and must keep the ball down to be successful, especially in Phoenix.

Barry Enright: Enright was selected shortly after Roemer in the ’07 draft and is a similar pitcher. The right-hander was selected in the second round out of Pepperdine University. Enright, 24, spent all of ’09 in double-A and posted a 4.00 FIP. In 156.0 innings, the durable starter showed excellent control with a walk rate of 2.13 BB/9 but he put a lot of balls in play with a strikeout rate of just 5.94 K/9. Back in double-A for 2010, Enright currently has a 3.40 FIP and has given up just 44 hits and 10 walks in 51.2 innings. He has struck out 40 batters. Like Roemer, he has a modest fastball (87-91 mph fastball) and needs to keep the ball down to be successful. His four-pitch mix also includes a slider, curveball and change-up.

Josh Collmenter: Another ’07 draft pick, the 24-year-old Collmenter has proven to be a solid value as a 15th round pick out of Central Michigan University. Not known as a big-time strikeout pitcher, the right-hander posted a K-rate of 9.41 K/9 in ’09 in high-A ball mainly due to his ability to mix all his pitches. Collmenter also posted a 3.12 FIP. He’s also done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park despite a modest ground-ball rate. This season, Collmenter has pitched at three levels (high-A, double-A, and triple-A). Combined, he’s allowed 36 hits and 15 walks with 44 strikeouts in 45.0 innings of work. His FIP sits at 3.66. His repertoire includes an 86-90 mph fastball with cutting action, curveball, and change-up.

The Texas Rangers’ ’09 draft took a huge hit when the organization failed to sign its first pick in Texas high school pitcher Matt Purke. The 14th overall pick spurned the club’s advances and headed off to Texas Christian University. He’ll be a draft-eligible sophomore and will be back in the 2011 draft.

The club redeemed itself with a couple of astute selections with the 44th overall pick (Tanner Scheppers) and 93rd overall selection (Robert Erlin), both pitchers. Today, we’re going to focus on the third round pick. Erlin caught the attention of scouts as a southpaw starter at a high school in Scotts Valley, California, despite his less than ideal pitcher’s stature of 5’11”, 175 lbs.

As Baseball American noted in its ’09 pre-draft coverage:

“…several scouts have said the same thing about him: ‘If he were two inches taller, you’d be talking about him as a first-rounder.'”

Despite his commitment to Cal Poly, Erlin signed with Texas and got in three relief appearances before the ’09 minor league season ended. This season, the 19-year-old hurler has been playing at low-A Hickory. Given durability concerns and his inexperience, Erlin was eased into the season and his first eight appearances came out of the bullpen. During that stretch, he allowed 11 hits and four walks in 20.1 innings of work.

On May 18, the southpaw made his first pro start and did not allow a hit or a walk over five innings of work. He struck out nine batters. Overall on the season, Erlin has allowed just one run – a solo homer – and has absolutely dominated hitters. He holding right-handed batters to a .098 batting average.

And this is not simply a strike-throwing soft-tosser overmatching the young, aggressive hitters in the South Atlantic League. We head back to Baseball America:

Despite the small frame, he has life on his fastball, pitching at 89-92 mph. He commands the pitch to both sides of the plate and has an above-average curveball–a hammer he can throw for strikes in any count.

Erlin doesn’t have the electric repertoire of a Martin Perez, Neftali Feliz or Scheppers, but he’s got an above-average repertoire, as well as a good feel for pitching – especially given his age. The organization has already shown a willingness to handle Erlin carefully, despite the obvious impulse to let him loose on the unsuspecting batters in the low minors. Don’t be surprised if you see his name littered amongst Top 10 post-season prospect lists.

Bryce Harper, hitting prodigy extraordinaire. Dubbed by Sports Illustrated as the baseball’s Lebron James, Harper is the most hyped prospect since, well, Steven Strasburg, who was drafted just last year. Both players have the tools and the results to be considered worthy of such hysteria.

Steven Strasburg is dominating Triple-A pitching already, and Harper has clubbed 23 homeruns in 198 at-bats as a 17 year old collegiate in a league that plays only with wooden bats. Sure, it’s junior college, but Harper has done nothing to sully his reputation as a prodigious power hitter. The craziest thing about this all is these two super-phenoms could be battery mates in D.C. in the very near future if a.) The Nationals draft him, which it appears that they will, and b.) If Harper can stick at catcher, and many scouts believe that he can.

The Nationals already doled out a record signing of $15.67 million to Strasburg last year, raising some eyebrows among fans and analysts alike, but it was a far cry from the possible Dice-K numbers that he was rumored to be initially seeking. Harper, who is advised by none other than Scott Boras, is rumored to be seeking even more money than Strasburg, according to Jon Heyman. (What? Heyman leaking bonus demands of a Boras client? That’s shocking!)

While it seems astounding to us average Joes that a kid not old enough to vote would receive such big dollars, is it really that nuts for a player drafted 1st overall to get that sort of money?

To answer that question I looked at all the 1-1 picks since the history of the draft. I’m looking just at the players who have played long enough to be judged to this point, so no Strasburg, David Price, Justin Upton, Tim Beckham or Luke Hochevar. Again, I’m looking only at the player’s first seasons in the majors, not when they are free agent eligible. I’m using Rally’s Historical WAR database to get their WAR totals.

Here’s the Top 5 1-1 picks of all time, and what their production would have been worth on today’s free agent market.

Name	      	Pos	HS/COL	      	WAR	WAR/yr.	FA$
Alex Rodriguez	SS	High School	37.5	6.3	153.8
Ken Griffey 	OF	High School	35.2	5.9	144.3
Joe Mauer       C	High School   	33.1    5.9     135.7
Chipper Jones	SS	High School	26.8	4.5	109.9
Dar. Strawberry	OF	High School	26.7	4.5	109.5

It’s attention-grabbing to me that all of these hitters came out of high school. And of course, they were all really, really good. If Harper can come even close to any of these select few, he’ll be worth his bonus many times over.

Now getting beyond the fun, superlative stuff, 45% of the #1 overall picks have produced nothing or next to nothing in the big leagues. Averaging all the 1st picks together, you get 9.5 WAR, or 1.6 WAR per season. We are talking about just 40 players, so standard deviation for the group is 1.8 WAR per season, in case you were wondering.

If we estimate that a player worth 1.6 WAR per season will earn about $13 million before they hit free agency (factoring in the 40%, 60%, 80% arbitration estimates and league minimum pay), we find that said player is worth a surplus value of around $26 million. So while handing out a bonus of $15 million puts a good sized dent in that surplus, that’s still a considerable surplus left over.

For all the moralizing and hem-hawing that #1 draft picks are vastly overpaid, I’d argue that they are a relative value. Sure, there is a good bit of risk involved, but when you glance at the overall picture, the #1 overall picks on an average have been worth their scratch. If Bryce Harper is worth only a fraction of the hype he’s received, he’ll be well worth whatever the record signing money he receives.

Yesterday, Erik Manning penned a really nice reminder piece about the lackluster history of first round draft picks. I have seen the traffic jumps at enough websites to know that fans are becoming really interested in their respective organization’s bonus babies, but it’s important that pieces like Erik remind us what we’re getting into. With his permission, I’m kicking off a series in which I look at this position by position, with 3 elements: 15 years of history at a given position (in a similar manner to Erik’s), then a look at current minor leaguers at that position, and finally, a look at the prospective first round draftees. We’ll see how it goes, but we begin today with the backstops.

From 1988-2002, thirty-one catchers were drafted in the first round of the June Amateur Draft. Ten draftees would never play in the Major Leagues, a group that includes six high school picks, the one junior college player, and three college guys. Another eight picks can safely be called busts, having produced between -2.4 and 0.1 WAR at the big league level. This group consists of five college players and three high school busts. This leaves 13 players that have produced 2 WAR or greater in the Majors. Here they are, ranked by their pre-2010 career WAR, according to Rally’s historical database:

Name               WAR    From
Jason Kendall      37.1    HS
Joe Mauer          33.1    HS
Jason Varitek      22.6     U
Charles Johnson    21.9     U
Paul Konerko       17.2    HS
Mike Lieberthal    15.4    HS
Dan Wilson         13.7     U
Jayson Werth       13.4    HS
Scott Hatteberg     8.5     U
Brent Mayne         4.2     U
Ramon Castro        3.0    PR
Ben Davis           3.0    HS
Mark Johnson        2.0    HS

So, we have certainly established that the “boom or bust” perception of high school draftees holds water with the catcher position, which had a higher percentage of busts, but also the better production of WAR in the Majors. You can see that three players that were drafted as catchers — Paul Konerko, Jayson Werth, Scott Hatteberg — would have varying degrees of success in the Majors at a different position. My next step was to look at their minor league performances to try and identify some common theme. This began with looking at their builds on the minor league pages at Baseball-Reference.

Builds

I see three subsets of builds that are common among the 13 players. First, we have the smallish catchers, between 6-0 and 6-1, from 170 to 190 pounds. This consisted of these five catchers: Kendall, Lieberthal, Hatteberg, Mayne, and Johnson. Then, you have the guys that are 6-2 and 6-3, with their weight usually in the 200’s: Varitek, Johnson, Konerko, Wilson, Castro. And then the odd ducks are the tall guys: Joe Mauer, Jayson Werth and Ben Davis. While there is some variance within each subset, I think these work as solid outlines.

Low-A Production

Eight of the 13 players spent time in Low-A, with University of Miami product Charles Johnson producing the best (.827 OPS) batting line, and high school draftee Mark Johnson (.624 OPS) as the worst. The other six were all between .677 and .785 in the OPS column. And those numbers, I should mention, are what the top two catchers in this study, Jason Kendall and Joe Mauer, respectively produced at the level.

High-A Production

This is definitely where you can begin to separate the men from the boys. Five players had an OPS above .780, from highest to lowest in this order: Kendall, Mauer, Paul Konerko, Mark Johnson and Jayson Werth. This group is still in the process of completing very solid big league careers. Then, you have the three that were below .720 in OPS: Ramon Castro, Ben Davis and Scott Hatteberg. Not as solid.

Double-A Production

A wide variance again, but again, it’s Kendall, Mauer, Konerko leading the way, accompanied by Mark and Charles Johnson. For what it’s worth, first round catchers seem to speak well for using MLE’s in long-term projections: the best players performed the best at High-A and above. Only Jason Varitek (.733 OPS) seems to buck the trend.

Triple-A Production

I tend not to look at these numbers much, because there is a lot of noise. But Paul Konerko dominated AAA (1.030 OPS), while guys like Davis, Liberthal and Dan Wilson really struggled. Mark Johnson and Ramon Castro have been AAA lifers, and have proven themselves as full-fledged Quad-A players. Not a lot to look at here.

Bust Production

Of course, none of the above helps us identify busts if we don’t compare it with the 58% of first round catchers that were not successful in the Majors. It would be nice if all the busts were like Scott Heard or Jim Gonzalez, guys that were bad out of the gate and never teased prospect analysts. But how do we explain guys like Jeff Mathis?

What I’ve found from a lot of these players that separates them from the ones that would reach the Majors is a significant drop in production upon the move to Double-A. Mathis was deservedly a great prospect after a .884 OPS in High-A at a young age, but when he went down to .726 the next season, more warning signs should have gone off than actually did. Same holds true for marginal prospects like Ryan Christianson, and for a bad defensive player like Jeremy Brown. Finding a way to continue improving, and slight improvements from year to year might hold more weight than the numbers themselves.

Tomorrow, I’ll be back looking at the minor league players that were once first-round catchers, and see if they are on their way to becoming busts or big league success stories.

With the 2010 amateur draft less than a month away, it’s a perfect time for reflection. The ’09 draft featured some “over-drafts” in the first 10 picks that caused a little bit of controversy.

The first over-draft came with the fourth overall pick when the Pittsburgh Pirates nabbed Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez. The Baltimore Orioles then followed up with the fifth pick by taking California prep right-hander Matt Hobgood, leaving the likes of Zack Wheeler, Jacob Turner, Tyler Matzek, and Shelby Miller on the table. All four prep pitchers were considered to be more talented. The third shock of the Top 10 came with Atlanta’s selection of Vanderbilt lefty Mike Minor, an advanced arm with limited upside.

Just over 11 months have passed since the ’09 draft, so let’s have a look and see how the gambles are paying off.

Sanchez was the only catcher taken in the first round. The next backstop was taken by Seattle with the first pick of the supplemental first round (33rd overall) in Florida high schooler Steve Baron. With a brutal big league pitching staff in Pittsburgh in ’10, names like Mike Leake, Drew Storen, and Kyle Gibson are looking pretty good right now. Truth be told, though, there are few – if any – ’09 first round hitters performing better than Sanchez right now. The catcher has a triple-slash line of .310/.423/.491 in 116 at-bats in high-A ball. The (soon-to-be) 22-year-old Sanchez has been creaming right-handed pitching with a .338 average. He’s slowed in May after a scorching April, though, and has seen his OPS go from 1.082 to .692 this month. Defensively on the year, he’s thrown out just five runners in 35 attempts (14%).

Hobgood was initially perhaps the most perplexing selection. In fairness, though, the Baltimore organization redeemed itself later on by signing a number of promising picks to over-slot deals to sway them away from other commitments. Instead of spending all of its money on one high-risk, high-reward player, the re-building organization hedged its bet and spread the love around. Pitching in low-A in 2010, the 19-year-old Hobgood has allowed 33 hits and 17 walks in 36.2 innings of work. He’s struck out only 23 batters, but he’s given up just one homer and has a ground-ball rate of 54%. It will be a while before we truly know how the club made out with this selection, as we also monitor the development of Wheeler, Turner, Matzek, and Miller… as well as the players that Baltimore paid big money to later in the draft (like Cameron Coffey, Ryan Berry, and Michael Ohlman).

The Braves organization has a reputation for developing pitchers but the club historically takes prep arms. That hasn’t worked out so well in recent years, which could explain part of the rationale for taking Minor, 22. He had a rough start to his ’10 season with nine runs allowed in his first two starts (9.0 innings) but he’s been making the organization look smart lately. The “soft-tosser” is leading the double-A Southern League in strikeouts with 65 in 44.2 innings of work (13.24 K/9). He’s also given up just 32 hits. Minor may find even more success once he can get the ball down a little more consistently and get the ground-ball rate up over that 50% hump. The southpaw has been lights-out with the bases empty (.132 average) but he’s struggled with runners on and in scoring position (.320).

It’s still very early, but all three players are holding their own in professional baseball. There was plenty of second guessing going on at the time (by myself included) but each MLB club spends a lot of time and money to make the best selections possible for themselves. It will be interesting to see who pops up unexpectedly in the Top 10 to 15 picks of the 2010 draft. It will also be fun to revisit the above trio at the end of the ’10 season.

The major league draft has come a long way in terms of coverage. In this age of twitter and blogs, we get more and more information on these prospective major league players than ever before. We also have seen two of the most hyped players in draft history set to go in consecutive years. Steven Strasburg received an insane amount of hype and continues to do so, while Bryce Harper made the cover of Sports Illustrated as a 16-year-old kid.

Around this time we begin to see mock drafts, hear rumors and get all sorts of pre-draft hype leading up until draft day. That’s all fine and good, and I’m not here to rain on anyone’s parade, but we need to counterbalance some of the draft hysteria with a healthy dose of reality.

Using Rally’s historical WAR database, I compiled the WAR figures for every player drafted in the first round in the 1990s. I only compiled the WAR totals for the player’s first six years of major league service, or in other words, his team-controlled years. Teams benefit the most when the player is a relative bargain, not when he’s being paid what he is worth on the free agent market. There’s many different angles we can look at with the data I put together, and maybe we’ll look at some later, but for now I just want to take a look at the attrition rates to help sober us up from the draft prospect propaganda.

-63.4% of first rounders busted, or produced between zero and 1.5 WAR.

-12.9% of first rounders produced 1.6 WAR and 6 WAR. These would be your role players; that is, your middle relievers, bench players.

-12.9% of first rounders were worth between 6.1 and 12 WAR. These are, but are not limited to, your starters on the fringe to average regulars.

-5% were worth between 12.1 and 18 WAR, 6.8% were worth 18.1 WAR or greater. That grouping includes some of today’s stars; Alex Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Manny Ramirez and *ahem* Jason Kendall.

(Once upon a time, Jason Kendall was pretty awesome.)

So that’s about three-quarters of all first rounders failing to live up to the hype. Every team envisions their first round pick as a fixture in their every day lineup or pitching rotation, but the odds are they produce little to nil in the big leagues. I do not envy the job of the scouting director; it’s a job where you swing for the fences but often come up empty. On the other side of the coin, the payoffs can be huge for the ones that do pan out.

While perusing the Royals’ organizational chart the other day, I realized that it’s been quite some time since I’ve heard anything about Aaron Crow. The right-hander, you’ll recall, was the ninth overall pick by the Washington Nationals during the 2008 draft.

Stepping back into 2008 again, the Top 2 pitchers in the draft that year were Crow and Brian Matusz of the University of San Diego. Here is what Baseball American said about Crow before the ’08 amateur draft:

In three years, Crow has gone from an undrafted high school senior to the best righthander in the 2008 draft, thanks largely to the best fastball package available. Other pitchers may throw harder, but no one can match the combination of Crow’s velocity (92-96 mph with a peak of 98), hard sink, command and ability to maintain his fastball… Some teams wonder if his mechanics and size (generously listed at 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds) might make him more of a closer than a front-line starter. Crow led the Cape Cod League with a 0.67 ERA last summer and was the No. 1 prospect in the league.

And here is a little something on Matusz:

Like David Price, the No. 1 pick last year, Matusz is tall and lanky at 6-foot-5 and 200 pounds, and scouts have history with him. He didn’t sign with the Angels in 2005 as a fourth-round pick out of an Arizona high school, and he starred for Team USA last summer, after ranking second (behind Price) in the nation in strikeouts… Matusz profiles as a middle of the rotation starter at worst, and if he improves his fastball and mechanics, he can become a staff ace.

There was a lot of debate over who was the better pick but it appears that Baltimore made the smart decision to take the more advanced left-hander. While Crow is struggling in double-A, Matusz is holding his own at the MLB level and has 15 MLB starts under his belt with a career xFIP of 4.58.

Unable to come to terms with Washington in ’08, Crow re-entered the draft in ’09 and went 12th overall to the Royals. He didn’t sign until late in the year so the former University of Missouri star officially began his pro career in April, 2010.

In the first start of his career, Crow allowed just one unearned run in 4.2 innings. His subsequent double-A starts have been inconsistent. His best stretch came in two games on April 29 and May 4 when he allowed just five runs on 12 hits in 15.0 innings. He walked three and struck out nine. In his last start against Tulsa (Colorado) on May 9, Crow was touched up for seven runs on seven hits and four walks in 5.0 runs. He did not strike out a batter.

Overall, he’s allowed 43 hits in 41.2 innings. Crow has given up 17 walks with just 21 strikeouts. Despite an excellent ground-ball rate of 70%, Crow has given up six homers (1.20 HR/9). If he keeps up that ground-ball rate, he should have some success, but he’s not going to reach his ceiling of a No. 1 or 2 starter with a sub-5.00 strikeout rate. It’s still early to get too worried, but flashes of Luke Hochevar are dancing in my head; one under-performing former No. 1 draft pick in enough for the Royals organization.

The legend of Stephen Strasburg continues to grow. The 2009 first overall draft pick pitched six no-hit innings during his second career triple-A start on May 12. He was lifted after the sixth inning and replaced by fellow ’09 No. 1 draft pick Drew Storen, who promptly gave up a hit to the third batter he faced.

Strasburg breezed through the Baltimore Orioles’ triple-A lineup, which was laden with minor league vets like Michael Aubrey, Joey Gathright, and Robert Andino. It even included a few true prospects in Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder.

The reason for Strasburg’s success on this night was clear. Simply, he threw strikes. Fifty-five of his 80 pitches were for strikes. With the strict pitch count, he did a nice job of getting through six innings despite striking out seven batters (and walking one). His stuff looked very good. Every batter was behind the right-hander’s mid-to-high 90s heater. He also had a good 12-6 breaking ball that caught a lot of batters looking at strikes.

On this night, though, his change-up may have been his best pitch. Speed-wise, it came in around 88 mph, which many MLB pitchers would consider to be the average velocity on their fastballs. The off-speed pitch had crazy, late fade that was utterly unhittable at times, as it dropped off just as the hitter swung at the pitch.

Strasburg’s combined season numbers between double-A and triple-A are outstanding. In 34.0 innings, the former San Diego State star has allowed just 14 hits and eight walks in 34.0 innings. He’s also racked up 40 strikeouts and has an excellent ground-ball rate, which has helped him keep the ball in the yard. Strasburg has yet to give up a hit to a right-handed batter in triple-A and left-handed batters are hitting less than .100 against him on the year (more than 50 batters faced).

The Washington Nationals club currently sits in second place in the National League East division. The Philadelphia Phillies club looks strong but the rest of the division is definitely vulnerable; a National League wild card spot is also not out of the question. The Nationals organization obviously doesn’t want to risk it’s future by playing for 2010, but it’s not absolutely crazy to think that the club could sneak into the playoffs (OK, maybe it’s a little crazy).

Pitching has been a weak spot for the club, as it ranks last, or near last, in strikeout rate, batting average allowed, WHIP, and xFIP. When we look at the starting rotation, we see that Jason Marquis has been lost for at least two months due to surgery, John Lannan has been terrible and Craig Stammen has been walking a tight rope. The club’s best starter, Livan Hernandez, has been doing cartwheels down the tight rope. The pitcher I have the most faith in right now is Scott Olsen, and that scares me just saying it.

If the Washington Nationals club continues to hover near the top of the National League East, the organization will have a huge dilemma on its hands as it weighs present gain versus future value. If Strasburg keeps pitching like he has been, though, it’s hard to envision him in the minor leagues a month from now.

The Twins promoted 2009 first-round pick Kyle Gibson to Double-A yesterday on the heels of his seventh start in the Florida State League, which lowered his ERA to 1.87 in 43.1 innings. Gibson was the 22nd overall pick last season out of the University of Missouri, where he dropped in the draft due to concerns over a predraft stress fracture in his throwing arm. Minnesota’s great scouting department saw an opportunity to get great value — Gibson was a potential top 10 pick entering the spring — and gave him $1.85 million, more than five hundred thousand above slot.

Gibson is a prototypical Twins draftee, as he combines solid sinker-slider (and an improved changeup) stuff with fantastic command. He has walked 2.5 batters per nine so far this season, but should be capable of even better numbers than that down the road. But where the Twins have usually found success with flyball pitchers in the past — Baker, Slowey, Garza, etc. — Gibson promises to throw an arm into the Minnesota rotation capable of a 50% groundball rate. I say this with confidence both due to the scouting reports on the tilt he gets from a 6-6 frame, his command, and two starts this season:

April 19: His third start of the season, Gibson scattered seven hits and two earned runs in seven innings against Tampa’s High-A affiliate. However, most impressively, Gibson recorded 16 groundball outs, and not a single fly out. Of the seven hits, however, five were put in the air. Still, for the game, 18 of the 23 batters to put a ball in play hit it on the ground.

April 29: Gibson’s best start to date, he allowed just one hit and one walk in a complete game shutout against Jupiter. The lone hit was a groundball, one of 17 that he would induce on the game. Only one batter recorded a fly out, and not until the ninth inning.

After struggling in his first start — allowing two home runs and eight baserunners in just 3.2 innings — Gibson tightened things up and finished his Fort Myers career with this: 39.2 IP, 27 H, 6 ER, 0 HR, 10 BB, 33 K, and a GO/AO ratio of 6.3. He moves to a New Britain team that has a cumulative .333 BABIP, so Gibson will need better infield defense to find sustained success at this higher level. Redgardless of the outcome, I do think Gibson will be capable of helping the Twins as early as next season, and he might just be the top prospect in their loaded system at the moment. And again, the Twins scouting department comes off as one of the game’s smartest, getting some of the best value in the first round by rolling the dice on an injured pitcher.