Draft Review: ’09 Over-Drafts

With the 2010 amateur draft less than a month away, it’s a perfect time for reflection. The ’09 draft featured some “over-drafts” in the first 10 picks that caused a little bit of controversy.

The first over-draft came with the fourth overall pick when the Pittsburgh Pirates nabbed Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez. The Baltimore Orioles then followed up with the fifth pick by taking California prep right-hander Matt Hobgood, leaving the likes of Zack Wheeler, Jacob Turner, Tyler Matzek, and Shelby Miller on the table. All four prep pitchers were considered to be more talented. The third shock of the Top 10 came with Atlanta’s selection of Vanderbilt lefty Mike Minor, an advanced arm with limited upside.

Just over 11 months have passed since the ’09 draft, so let’s have a look and see how the gambles are paying off.

Sanchez was the only catcher taken in the first round. The next backstop was taken by Seattle with the first pick of the supplemental first round (33rd overall) in Florida high schooler Steve Baron. With a brutal big league pitching staff in Pittsburgh in ’10, names like Mike Leake, Drew Storen, and Kyle Gibson are looking pretty good right now. Truth be told, though, there are few – if any – ’09 first round hitters performing better than Sanchez right now. The catcher has a triple-slash line of .310/.423/.491 in 116 at-bats in high-A ball. The (soon-to-be) 22-year-old Sanchez has been creaming right-handed pitching with a .338 average. He’s slowed in May after a scorching April, though, and has seen his OPS go from 1.082 to .692 this month. Defensively on the year, he’s thrown out just five runners in 35 attempts (14%).

Hobgood was initially perhaps the most perplexing selection. In fairness, though, the Baltimore organization redeemed itself later on by signing a number of promising picks to over-slot deals to sway them away from other commitments. Instead of spending all of its money on one high-risk, high-reward player, the re-building organization hedged its bet and spread the love around. Pitching in low-A in 2010, the 19-year-old Hobgood has allowed 33 hits and 17 walks in 36.2 innings of work. He’s struck out only 23 batters, but he’s given up just one homer and has a ground-ball rate of 54%. It will be a while before we truly know how the club made out with this selection, as we also monitor the development of Wheeler, Turner, Matzek, and Miller… as well as the players that Baltimore paid big money to later in the draft (like Cameron Coffey, Ryan Berry, and Michael Ohlman).

The Braves organization has a reputation for developing pitchers but the club historically takes prep arms. That hasn’t worked out so well in recent years, which could explain part of the rationale for taking Minor, 22. He had a rough start to his ’10 season with nine runs allowed in his first two starts (9.0 innings) but he’s been making the organization look smart lately. The “soft-tosser” is leading the double-A Southern League in strikeouts with 65 in 44.2 innings of work (13.24 K/9). He’s also given up just 32 hits. Minor may find even more success once he can get the ball down a little more consistently and get the ground-ball rate up over that 50% hump. The southpaw has been lights-out with the bases empty (.132 average) but he’s struggled with runners on and in scoring position (.320).

It’s still very early, but all three players are holding their own in professional baseball. There was plenty of second guessing going on at the time (by myself included) but each MLB club spends a lot of time and money to make the best selections possible for themselves. It will be interesting to see who pops up unexpectedly in the Top 10 to 15 picks of the 2010 draft. It will also be fun to revisit the above trio at the end of the ’10 season.