General Manager: Dan O’Dowd
Farm Director: Marc Gustafson
Scouting Director: Bill Schmidt

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The Rockies organization does not have the strongest system in the game but it’s far from the weakest and you have to be impressed with how many top prospects are homegrown talent. This organization knows how to find, sign and develop prospects. Six of the 10 prospects were international free agent signings and all 10 were originally signed by the club (a rare feat).

1. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Double-A
DOB: July 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 1st round – Eastern Kentucky University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus slider, curveball, change-up

Friedrich continues to prove that he was an absolute steal as the 25th overall pick in the ’08 draft. He cruised through low-A ball in ’09 by posting a 1.92 FIP and a strikeout rate of 13.10 K/9 in 45.1 innings. The left-hander then moved up to high-A where he had a 2.55 FIP and allowed just 59 hits in 74.1 innings. His strikeout rate remained excellent at 11.26 K/9 thanks to his plus curveball. He also shows an average ability at inducing ground balls. Friedrich did a nice job of holding his own against right-handed batters in ’09 and he kept them to a .218 batting average. However, his walk rate did rise against them (3.43 vs righties, 2.32 vs lefties). Friedrich has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter and he could conceivably reach Colorado by the end of the season if he gets off to a fast start in double-A.

2. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Majors
DOB: January 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, change-up, slider

Just 21 in ’09, Chacin reached the Majors and appeared in nine games, including one start, for the big league club. Along with his four-game stint in triple-A, the right-hander showed that he still has some work to do – especially with his control (24 walks in 25.1 combined innings). Chacin spent the majority of the season in double-A, where he allowed 87 hits in 103.1 innings of work. He posted a walk rate of 3.05 BB/9. His strikeout rate was a respectable 7.49 K/9 and his ground-ball rate was solid at 54%. With the ability to keep the ball on the ground and a repertoire that includes two plus pitches (fastball, change-up), Chacin should develop into a No. 3 starter at worst.

3. Wilin Rosario, C, High-A
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Rosario first showed up on prospect radars after a solid ’08 season in which he hit .316/.371/.532 in 263 at-bats in rookie ball. The now 21-year-old catcher followed up the breakout season with a huge jump to high-A ball, bypassing both short-season ball and low-A ball. He hit OK, considering his age and the huge leap, with a .266/.297/.404 line in 203 at-bats. Unfortunately his walk rate was almost cut in half (from 8.2 to 4.5%) and his power output dropped (.217 to .138 ISO). A wrist injury ended his season prematurely but he was starting to hit well at the time (.725 OPS in June, .840 in July). Rosario returned for the Arizona Fall League and looked good. Defensively, he has a strong arm and has thrown out 46% of base runners over the past two seasons.

4. Hector Gomez, SS, High-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Gomez’ development was stunt in ’08 when Tommy John surgery limited him to just one game. He came back in ’09 and appeared in 83 games in high-A ball and showed improvement. The shortstop hit .275/.310/.423 in 338 at-bats. Because of a chronically-low walk rate, Gomez consistently posts a low on-base percentage, which limits his stolen base numbers (10 in 14 tries in ’09). Despite his thin frame, the right-handed hitter has surprising pop, although it’s currently more of the line-drive variety than over-the-fence. Defensively, he has a rocket for an arm despite his surgery but he makes youthful mistakes. With Troy Tulowitzki currently manning shortstop in Colorado, the club can afford to be patient with Gomez.

5. Esmil Rogers, RHP, Majors
DOB: August 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1
Repertoire: 90-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Rogers has two distinct seasons in ’09. He began the year in double-A and had few troubles with the hitters by posting a FIP of 2.51. He allowed 87 hits in 94.1 innings. Promoted to triple-A, his FIP rose to 5.49 and he allowed 77 hits in 60.2 innings. The main issue was a lack of command and control. His walk rate rose from 1.18 in double-A to 5.19 BB/9 in triple-A. Rogers left balls up in the zone and was creamed; his HR/9 rate rose from 0.19 to 1.34 HR/9. Clearly the 24-year-old right-hander has some work to do as a former hitter who was converted to the mound after turning pro. With a little polish, though, he could develop into a No. 3 starter.

6. Eric Young Jr., 2B, Majors
DOB: May 1985 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2003 30th round – Chandler-Gilbert CC
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Young Jr. has done nothing but hit and run in the minors. Over the past four seasons, he’s produced a batting average of more than .290 while stealing an average of 66 bases a year (87 was his highest total in ’06, 46 was his lowest in ’08). He does a nice job of getting on base and has posted a walk rate in double-digits for three of the past four seasons. On the negative side, he still strikes out a bit too much (16.7% in ’09) for his modest power output (.131 ISO). In the field, Young Jr. is not a great defensively player so he could end up moving permanently to the outfield or he could serve as a super-utility player who would be deserving of 300-400 at-bats. Outside of improving his defense, Young Jr. has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues.

7. Michael McKenry, C, Double-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 7th round – Middle Tennessee State University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Just 5’10”, McKenry generates surprising pop thanks to his squat build. He also historically hits for a pretty solid average and gets on base. Overall in ’09, he hit .279/.376/.455 in 358 double-A at-bats. He did see a decline in power last season as his ISO rate dropped from .210 in ’08 to .176. However, his walk rate remained strong at 12.9% and his strikeout rate dropped 6% to 19.3%. McKenry is a notoriously slow starter and his numbers could improve if he can find a way to get the bat going in April and May. Defensively, he’s a born leader who does a nice job of throwing out base runners (33% in ’09). He has the potential to be a solid big league regular, and he should have a nice MLB career even if he doesn’t hit as well as he did in the minors.

8. Casey Weathers, RHP, Double-A
DOB: June 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Vanderbilt University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-96 mph fastball, plus slider

Weathers, a former No. 1 draft pick, was rocketing through the minors and reached double-A in his first full pro season before he blew out his elbow and had Tommy John surgery. The right-hander is expected to by ready for the start of the 2010 season. With a big-time fastball and a heavy fastball that produces a good number of ground balls, Weathers projects as a future closer but his control was questionable (5.68 BB/9 in double-A) even before the injury. The 24-year-old should return to double-A in 2010 and he could reach the Majors by the end of the season if his stuff bounces back as expected.

9. Juan Nicasio, RHP, Low-A
DOB: August 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Nicasio is a little rawer than you’d like from a 23-year-old pitching prospect, but you can’t argue with his results so far. The hard-throwing right-hander posted a 2.57 FIP in ’09 while allowing 110 hits in 112.0 innings of work. He produced a good walk rate against inexperienced hitters (1.85 BB/9) but he still has work to do with his command. Nicasio has done an excellent job avoiding the long-ball throughout his career, which should help him in Colorado. Because of his age, inexperience and lack of a reliable third pitch, a bullpen role is probably in his future.

10. Sam Deduno, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: July 1983 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

A little old for a prospect, Deduno is on the cusp of being MLB ready. He spent the Majority of the ’09 season in double-A and allowed just 94 hits in 133.0 innings of work and posted a strikeout rate of 8.32 K/9. On the downside, his control is questionable, as he posted a walk rate of 4.87 BB/9. That issue, combined with the fact that he’s basically a two-pitch pitcher, suggests that Deduno’s future is probably in the bullpen. With a solid fastball and a plus curveball for his out-pitch, as well as a 57% ground-ball rate in ’09, this right-hander could make a solid set-up man for the Rockies. His first taste of the Majors could come by mid-2010.

Up Next: The Top 30 is done!

Last week my colleague Bryan Smith got an interesting conversation started in a post he titled The Next Step.  In a nutshell, his question was “what does sabermetric prospect analysis look like?” That question got a lot of good dialogue going, and I’m sure it’s something you might be seeing more of here at FanGraphs in the coming days and months.

Today I’m just going to approach it in the most back-of-a-napkin method as possible with a prospect who I feel is a tad undersold, and that’s Peter Bourjos, a center fielder in the Angels’ system. If you listened to the corresponding podcast we did about taking the next step in prospect analysis, you know that Peter Bourjos gets me all tingly for some reason. I think it’s probably because I’m the sort of person who likes to see players who fly a bit under the radar succeed, and I like players who I suppose you can call throwback types who may not hit for power, but can run and play good defense.

First, I dug up my trusty 2010 Baseball America Handbook, the 2010 Minor League Analyst and then surfed the web for different scouting reports. I even looked at some video on YouTube.  (Remember, this is nothing really scientific). From there I got enough info for me to put together this scouting report, based on the 20-80 scale.

Categories   Grades
Hitting      55
Power        30
Discipline   40?
Speed        70
Field        70

A quick rundown on each tool: Bourjos has some holes in his swing, but should make enough contact to hit about .275-.280 per season. He has gap power, but is very unlikely to crack more than 10 homers in a season. His selectivity at the plate improved, as shown by a 9.7% BB%, a rise of 6.2% from the season earlier. I put a question mark next to the grade because I don’t feel confident that he won’t walk more than 7% in the majors.

Bourjos’ speed and defense is his claim to fame, as I mentioned before. He steals a lot of bases in an organization that encourages being aggressive on the basepaths. He could improve upon his success rate, however.  His speed helps him to range almost effortlessly to balls that most outfielders would have to dive for. According to his Total Zone numbers found on MinorLeagueSplits.com, Bourjos has been worth 76 runs in just 363 games in the minors. That’s pretty freaking fantastic. CHONE projects he’d be good for 14 runs above average on defense now.

Putting this all together and assuming all goes well…

600 plate appearances, 42 walks, 117 singles, 26 doubles, 7 triples, 5 homers, 30 steals, 10 caught stealing = .318 wOBA.

• Batting wins above average (.318 wOBA, league .335): -9 runs
• Defensive wins above average: +14 runs
• CF Positional Adjustment: +2.5 runs
• Replacement: +20 runs

Total: 2.8 WAR.

That to me would represent pretty close to a perfect world scenario of what Bourjos becomes while under team control. I think Angel fans would gladly take that. Well, they would if Bourjos had a place to play, as center field is currently occupied by Torii Hunter. His downside would be something like a right-handed version of Endy Chavez. How is that for hedging my bets? There’s no shame in that considering Chavez has been worth about a win per year coming off the bench.

Anyway, this is HIGHLY subjective and I know opinions on prospects can greatly differ, so don’t stone me if you think I’m being too optimistic or pessimistic. This is just meant as more of a fun, quick-and-dirty way that you can use to get a glimpse of a prospect’s potential in terms of wins above replacement from information you can glean from their scouting reports.

General Manager: Dan O’Dowd
Farm Director: Marc Gustafson
Scouting Director: Bill Schmidt

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Tyler Matzek, LHP, California HS
1. Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento State
1S. Rex Brothers, LHP, Lipscomb [91-96 FB, SL, CH]
2. Nolan Arenado, 3B, California HS
3. Ben Paulsen, 1B, Clemson

The jury remains out of the ’09 draft, but the club really did not see good draft results between 2006 and 2008.

This past season, everyone was shocked that the club was able to sign Matzek, one of the top prep arms in the draft, to such a “reasonable” deal. The left-hander quickly became one of the organization’s best pitching prospects and he could open 2010 in low-A ball. It’s also possible that he could also see some time in extended spring training depending on how he looks in the spring. There really is no need to rush him. Brothers, on the other hand, should move very quickly. The left-hander has two plus pitches: fastball and slider. He could end up being what Casey Weathers was supposed to be prior to his injury: a dominating closer.

Wheeler was a safe, stats-driven pick out of college. He’s a corner outfielder who projects to have fringe-average power for right field. He does a little bit of everything, despite a modest debut in short-season ball in ’09 (.256/.332/.381 in 273 at-bats). An offense-first prospect, Arenado had a solid debut in rookie ball and he hit .300/.351/.404 in 203 at-bats. He has more power potential than his ISO rate of .103 would suggest. Defensively, he has a strong arm but scouts are not sold on him at third base.

Drafted in the third round, a lot of questions remain about Paulsen’s ultimate potential due to his lack of power (.097 ISO) at first base. Unfortunately, his approach at the plate doesn’t make him a great hitter for average, either, as he’s overly aggressive.

2008 1st Round: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky
2. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Georgia Tech
3. Aaron Weatherford, RHP, Mississippi State
14x – Joseph Massey, OF, Tennessee HS
37x – Delta Cleary, OF, Louisiana JC

Friedrich turned out to be a steal and he is on the club’s Top 10 list. Blackmon just missed the Top 10 list despite hitting .307/.370/.433 in 550 at-bats. He also stole 30 bases in 43 tries. Weatherford appeared in just 18 games out of the ‘pen in ’09 while pitching in short-season ball and low-A.

Massey had a rough first full season in pro ball by hitting .220/.261/.290 in 404 at-bats. He showed zero power (.069 ISO), limited strike zone awareness and poor base running (eight steals in 17 tries). Cleary is also rough around the edges but he showed a little more promise at low-A by hitting .256/.315/.376 with 30 steals in 41 attempts.

Kiel Roling (6th round) has some potential too, but the move from catcher to first base hurt his overall value. He hit .331/.401/.593 in 344 low-A at-bats.

2007 1st Round: Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt
2. Brian Rike, OF, Louisiana Tech
3. Lars Davis, C, Illinois

This draft was dealt a blow when Weathers underwent Tommy John surgery. He has a good chance of returning to his old form, though, and he still made the Top 10 list. Rike has been a disappointment and he hit just .196/.271/.361 in 368 disastrous at-bats at high-A in ’09. A .279 wOBA leads to very few positive comments. Likewise, Davis’ .562 OPS at high-A ball tells you all that you need to know.

Pitcher Connor Graham (5th round) showed some potential but he was traded to Cleveland last season for veteran reliever Rafael Betancourt. Third baseman Darin Holcomb could develop into a bench or platoon player in the Majors.

2006 1st Round: Greg Reynolds, RHP, Stanford
2. David Christensen, OF, Florida HS
3. Keith Weiser, LHP, Miami (Ohio)
29x – Shane Lowe, SS, Missouri HS

Reynolds was a bad pick from the start (with some of the other players still on the board) and injuries all but ruined his career. He appeared in just one game in 2009. Christensen’s .234 batting average was a career high in ’09, as was his .745 OPS. The outfielder’s strikeout rate was an astonishing 38.5% in low-A ball. Weiser is a command/control artist who posted a walk rate of just 1.67 BB/9 at double-A in ’09. However, his FIP was 4.54 and his strikeout rate came in at 5.57 K/9. Lowe did not break .190 in his three-year career and his ’09 strikeout rate was 43.2%.

Catcher Mike McKenry was a steal in the seventh round. Right-hander Brandon Hynick (8th round) could be a useful MLB arm, but he was traded to the White Sox.

Up Next: The Colorado Rockies Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Jon Daniels
Farm Director: Scott Servais
Scouting Director: Kip Fagg

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The organization graduated a number of prospects in ’09 (Elvis Andrus, Julio Borbon, etc.) but the Top 10 list is still going strong, which is a testament to the system’s depth. With that said, the back end of the list starts to get a little weak but there are some sleepers in the organization and the club offered a number of over-slot deals in the ’09 draft, which will help for 2010.

1. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Majors
DOB: May 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Atlanta)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-97 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Feliz wowed a lot of people in his MLB debut in ’09 and it’s fortunate that his rookie eligibility did not expire. He posted a 2.48 FIP in 31.0 big league relief innings and allowed just 13 hits. Along with that, he showed solid control (2.32 BB/9) and an eye-popping strikeout rate (11.32 K/9). The good news for Rangers fans (and bad news for hitters) is that Feliz will be converted back to a starting pitcher, which is a role he has had for much of his career. He could be an outstanding reliever but Feliz also holds the potential to be a solid No. 1 or 2 starter with a little more experience and development of his secondary pitches. He relied very heavily on his fastball in ’09 at the MLB level (+70%) and it would be nice to see him inch that ground-ball rate up over 40%. As a starter, the 21 year old may need a little more seasoning in the minors.

2. Justin Smoak, 1B, Double-A
DOB: December 1986 Bats: B Throws: L
Signed: 2008 1st round – University of South Carolina
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Smoak’s season began well when he hit .328/.449/.481 in 183 double-A games despite spending just 14 games at the A-ball level in ’08. However, he then hit the disabled list and struggled in triple-A upon his return. The switch-hitter managed a line of just .244/.363/.360 in 197 at-bats after the promotion. Smoak’s power all but dried up as his ISO dropped from .153 to .117. His strikeout rate rose from 19.1% to 22.8%, although his walk rate remained good at 14.8% at the senior level. A former first round draft pick, he projects to be an above-average regular but he needs to improve against left-handers (.626 OPS vs lefties, .950 vs righties). He should opened the 2010 season back in triple-A but he should eventually push Chris Davis to DH.

3. Martin Perez, LHP, Double-A
DOB: April 1991 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Perez is another talented hurler in the Rangers system. The southpaw began in the year in low-A ball and he impressed by allowing 82 hits in 93.2 innings while posting a 3.82 FIP. He showed good control (3.17 BB/9) and missed a lot of bats (10.09 K/9). The 18-year-old pitcher was so impressive that he skipped high-A and moved right to double-A where he posted a 3.82 FIP in 21.0 innings (five starts). Perez continued to show good control but his strikeout rate dropped to 6.00 K/9 in the small-sample size. He’ll need to keep improving his change-up but his fastball and curveball make an intriguing one-two combination. Perez should open ’10 back in double-A.

4. Kasey Kiker, LHP, Double-A
DOB: November 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 1st round – Alabama HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Kiker gets lost in the shuffle a bit but he was a top draft pick in ’07 and he had a nice season in ’09 at the double-A level. The 22-year-old southpaw made 25 double-A appearances and he posted a 4.20 FIP in 126.0 innings while allowing 108 hits. His control slipped in ’09 (4.71 BB/9) but his strikeout rate remained good at 8.57 K/9 thanks to his good change-up and developing curveball. His fastball remains inconsistent, both in terms of command and velocity. The two biggest concerns right now are his low ground-ball rate, which is below 40%, and his L/R splits: 1.13 WHIP vs lefties, 1.43 vs righties. He could develop into a No. 3 starter but he likely needs at least one more year of seasoning in the minors.

5. Robert Ross, LHP, Short-season
DOB: June 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Kentucky HS
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, slider, change-up

There have been some mixed reviews on Ross, but the lefty had a nice debut in short-season ball in ’09. He showed good control with a walk rate of just 2.06 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was impressive at 9.20 K/9, especially given his lack of experience. From a scouting standpoint, Ross has better-than-average velocity on his fastball but it has lacked movement at times. He received excellent sink on the pitch in ’09, though, and produced a ground-ball rate just above 63%. It’s not that easy to find left-handed pitching prospects with good velocity and nice ground-ball numbers, so the Rangers have something here in Ross. The organization just needs to be patient.

6. Wilmer Font, RHP, Low-A
DOB: May 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Font is another impressive international find for the organization. The right-hander is a strong-bodied hurler at 6’4” 210 lbs so he should be a durable workhorse for the club. Only 19, he spent the ’09 season in low-A ball and allowed 93 hits in 108.1 innings while posting a 3.62 FIP. His control clearly needs work after he posted a 4.90 BB/9 but he had a good strikeout rate at 8.72 K/9. Font also needs to get more balls on the ground (37 GB%) despite a good HR/9 rate of 0.33. He’ll likely move up to the California League in 2010 where the balls fly out of the ball parks at a much higher rate. With some adjustments, Font has a bright future ahead of him.

7. Mitch Moreland, OF, Double-A
DOB: September 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 17th round – Mississippi State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Perhaps the biggest mover and shaker in the system in ’09, Moreland went from a 17th round draft pick out of college in ’07 to a Top 10 prospect in ’09, which is no small feat. After spending all of ’08 in low-A ball, Moreland played at both high-A and double-A in ’09 and should start this season in triple-A. The left-handed hitter produced a triple-slash line of .341/.421/.594 in 170 high-A at-bats. His line in double-A was .326/.373/.488 and he saw his power dip from an ISO rate of .253 to .163. Moreland has hit more than .325 over the past 240 minor league games, but he’s been aided by very high BABIPs (.359 in ’09) so you would have to expect some regression at the MLB level but his low strikeout rates show that he makes good contact. For a corner outfielder (and first baseman), his power is probably average. Defensively, he has poor range but a very good arm.

8. Wilfredo Boscan, RHP, Low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 87-92 mph fastball, change-up, curveball

Boscan is not as flashy as Feliz or Perez, but he’s displayed some intriguing numbers despite an average fastball (albeit one that projects to add velocity). The right-hander has shown outstanding control over the past two seasons by posting walk rates of 1.43 and 1.62 BB/9. He’s also been right around the 50% ground-ball rate in his North American career (0.60 HR/9 in ’09). Of note is the drop in strikeouts, from 9.09 in ’08 to 5.04 K/9 in ’09. As mentioned, though, his 6’2” 160 lbs frame has room to fill out and develop. Boscan’s solid change-up gives him a real weapon to combat lefties (.212 vs .275 average). He just needs some more success against right-handers.

9. Michael Main, RHP, High-A
DOB: December 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

A serious viral infection derailed Main’s ’09 season and the right-hander has yet to make more than 16 starts in a season since signing in ’07. He made it back to the mound late in the season and showed potential but he’ll still need to show some that he can stay healthy for a full season and shoulder a starting pitcher’s workload. Main has the potential to have three pitches grade out at least average, or he could focus on developing his fastball and curveball into plus pitches, which might make him a dominating late-game reliever. Just 21, time is still on his side but he needs to show something in 2010 for people to keep believing in him as a top prospect.

10. Max Ramirez, C, Majors
DOB: October 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2002 non-drafted international free agent (Atlanta)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1

The back end of my Top 10 list was originally thrown into disarray when pitching prospect Danny Gutierrez was suspended for 50 games. It was enough to cause him to fall off my list entirely since this was not the first time that he’s had a cloud over his head. As a result, though, Ramirez makes the list despite having his own question marks thanks to his health. Ramirez was almost traded to Boston for veteran third baseman Mike Lowell during the off-season before injury concerns (for both players) put the kibosh on that deal. If healthy, Ramirez has the chance to be a third-string catcher, back-up first baseman and DH. The 25-year-old prospect is coming off a disappointing season that saw him hit .234/.323/.336 in 274 at-bats. He also showed a significant decrease in power (.102 ISO, his lowest total in four years) but that may have been caused by injuries. Ramirez shows good patience at the plate, but his 31.0% strikeout rate, which is right in line with his career norms, is cause for concern. Defensively, he’s not good enough to play as an everyday catcher.

Up Next:The Colorado Rockies

Episode Nine
In which the panel considers what WAR is good for — and how it relates to minor leaguers.

Headlines
On Bryan Smith’s The Next Step
Jesus Montero and the Value of a Catcher
Fan Projections for Minor Leaguers?
Carson Cistulli’s Long Levers
Strasburg, Heyward, and This Guy
… and other candid opinions!

Featuring
Marc Hulet
Erik Manning
Bryan Smith

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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General Manager: Jon Daniels
Farm Director: Scott Servais
Scouting Director: Kip Fagg

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Matt Purke, LHP, Texas HS (Did Not Sign)
1S. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, IND
2. Tommy Mendonca, 3B, Fresno State
3. Robbie Erlin, LHP, California HS
5x – Nick McBride, RHP, North Carolina HS
12x – Chad Bell, LHP, Walters State CC
17x – Paul Strong, LHP, California HS
24x – Shawn Blackwell, RHP, Texas HS
25x – Riley Cooper, OF, Florida

The club was dealt a big blow to its ’09 draft hopes when Purke failed to come to terms and walked away from a multi-million dollar deal to attended Texas Christian University. Luckily, the club managed to land the hard-throwing Scheppers with a supplemental pick. The right-hander could move quickly through the system but it remains to be seen how long his shoulder will hold up given his previous health woes.

Mendonca had a nice debut in short-season ball by hitting .309/.361/.537 in 188 at-bats. He was over-powered in an 11-game trial at high-A ball and his +30% strikeout rate is cause for concern. Erlin pitched just 4.0 innings after signing, but he made some noise with nine strikeouts. He has a plus curveball.

With the money that the club saved by not getting a deal done with Purke, it was able to spread the love around a bit in later rounds. All five of the over-slot deals will make their pro debuts in 2010, and the four pitchers will likely spend some time in extended spring training. Cooper should start in A-ball.

2008 1st Round: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
2. Robbie Ross, LHP, Kentucky HS
3. Tim Murphy, LHP, UCLA
7x – Matt Thompson, RHP, Texas HS

Both Smoak and Ross appear on the club’s Top 10 list. Murphy had a rough year in high-A ball and posted a 6.80 ERA (4.68 FIP) in 135.0 innings. He allowed 184 hits while missing few bats (5.73 K/9). Thompson did not strike out a ton of batters either (6.63 K/9) and he gave up a lot of hits (87 in 72.0 innings). However, he showed excellent control with a walk rate of 1.25 BB/9. Keep an eye on right-hander Joe Wieland (4th round) as a possible sleeper.

2007 1st Round: Blake Beavan, RHP, Texas HS
1. Michael Main, RHP, Florida HS
1S. Julio Borbon, OF, Tennessee
1S. Neil Ramirez, RHP, Virginia HS
1S. Tommy Hunter, RHP, Alabama
2. Matt West, 3B, Texas HS
3. Evan Reed, RHP, Cal Poly
13x – Kyle O’Campo, RHP, California HS

Like a few teams in ’07, the organization was set to really improve the depth in its system with five picks before the second round. However, both first round prep hurlers, Beavan and Main, have been slower to develop than Texas had hoped. Main has dealt with health issues, while Beavan’s prep velocity did not follow him into pro ball. His strikeout rate plummeted to 3.41 K/9 in 89.2 double-A innings in ’09. West has seen his OPS drift steadily downwards with each season, from .785 to .725 to .671. Defensively, though, he has a strong arm at third base.

Borbon and Hunter have chances to make major impacts on the big league club in 2010. Borbon is the favorite to win a starting job in the outfield, while Hunter could make the club as the No. 5 starter.

Ramirez, 20, still has good potential, but he needs to avoid the DL and improve his control. Reed, who was supposed to be a fast-moving college reliever, did not respond well after the club tried to make him a starter. He rebounded somewhat in ’09 but continued to show below-average control (5.18 BB/9). O’Campo has shown some flashes of potential but he’s spent the last two seasons in short-season and rookie ball.

Outfielder Tim Smith (7th round) was a nice grab but he was dealt to Kansas City last season for pitching prospect Danny Gutierrez. OF/1B Mitch Moreland (17th round) was an even better signing and he made the club’s Top 10 list.

2006 1st Round: Kasey Kiker, LHP, Alabama HS
2. None
3. Chad Tracy, C/1B, Pepperdine
4x – Marcus Lemon, SS, Florida HS
6x – Jake Brigham, RHP, Florida HS
25x – Derek Holland, LHP, Alabama CC

Clearly the best player in the draft is Holland, who could take a real step forward in 2010. First-rounder Kiker is still promising, as well, but there are doubts about his ability to stick in the rotation due to durability concerns. I was a big fan of Tracy in college but his move from behind the dish has hurt his value. He may end up as a Quad-A slugger. Lemon has been a solid, but unspectacular, player in the minors as he lacks power and has yet to steal more than 12 bases in a season. Brigham has is developing slowly.

Slugger Chris Davis (5th round) is already making a name for himself in Texas. Southpaw Danny Herrera (45th round) appeared in 70 big league games for Cincinnati in ’09.

Up Next: The Texas Rangers Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Brian Sabean
Farm Director: Fred Stanley
Scouting Director: John Barr

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The system has a couple monster prospects at the top of the list but the middle tier is pretty impressive too. Things drop off a bit after the seventh man on the list but all 10 prospects have a good chance of contributing to a big league team before too long.

1. Buster Posey, C, Majors
DOB: March 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Florida State University
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

If all goes as expected, Posey’s minor-league stay was a short one. The catcher really has little left to prove in the minors after just one full season. The former college star hit .326/.428/.540 in 291 high-A at-bats in ’09 before skipping double-A and moving up to triple-A where he hit .321/.391/.511 in another 131 at-bats. Posey also received 17 big league at-bats at the end of the year. His hope of playing everyday in 2010 as the Giants’ primary catcher was dealt a blow this past off-season when the club re-signed veteran backstop Bengie Molina, but there is talk that he’ll see playing time all over the diamond, thanks to his solid athleticism. I’ve said it before, but count me down as someone who doesn’t like the idea. As a college convert to the position, Posey needs experience behind the dish to help iron out his receiving- and game-calling skills; his throwing was solid in ’09 (46% caught stealing).

2. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Majors
DOB: August 1989 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2007 1st round – North Carolina HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

In two seasons, Bumgarner has yet to post an ERA above 1.93. His FIP, though, has not been quite as sterling, and it’s actually risen with each promotion: from 1.71 to 2.05 to 3.56 to 4.60 in a brief MLB trial in ’09. The lefty has lost some velocity from his prep days, but it hasn’t bothered him much in pro ball. He held his own in double-A last season by allowing just 80 hits in 107.0 innings of work. His walk rate of 2.52 was solid but his strikeout rate of 5.80 K/9 was low and he’s a borderline fly-ball pitcher. The lefty has a good shot at the No. 5 job in the Giants rotation in 2010 with his biggest competition being Todd Wellemeyer. At the age of just 20, Bumgarner is probably not ready to be an impact pitcher at the MLB level just yet. However, don’t be too concerned about the lesser velocity unless it keeps leaking; it’s possible that he’s sacrificing miles per hour for movement and/or control.

3. Thomas Neal, OF, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 36th round – Riverside Community College
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Neal just keeps getting better. In fairness, his ’09 numbers may have been helped by a good hitting environment. Even so, the 22-year-old outfielder hit .337/.431/.579 in 475 at-bats. His ISO rate jumped from .168 in low-A in ’08 to .242 in high-A in ’09. Neal has also shown solid patience at the plate over the past three seasons, topping out at 11.6 BB% this past year. He did a nice job of trimming his strikeout rate by 4% over ’08’s 24.1%. It will be hard for Neal to improve upon his .444 wOBA from ’09 but he has the talent to be a star corner outfielder for the Giants. Defensively, his range is better suited for left field but he has the arm strength to play right field without embarrassing himself.

4. Dan Runzler, LHP, Majors
DOB: March 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 9th round – UC Riverside
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, curveball

A former ninth-round (under the radar) pick, Runzler has found a lot of success as of late thanks to his solid fastball – especially for a lefty – and his outstanding ground-ball rates. Playing at four minor league levels in ’09, the southpaw produced an eye-popping 64.7% ground-ball rate, as well as an incredibly-low 5% line-drive rate. After all that traveling in the minors, Runzler was rewarded with a trip to the Majors where he posted a 1.04 ERA (but 4.14 FIP) in 8.2 big league innings. He struck out 11 batters but showed that he still has some work to do with his control by walking five batters. The former UC Riverside hurler has gone from little-known middle reliever to a potential MLB closer down the road.

5. Roger Kieschnick, OF, High-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Texas Tech University
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

After not getting into game action in ’08, Kieschnick made up for lost time with a solid pro debut in high-A ball. He hit .296/.345/.532 and showed the plus power that he was known for in college (.236 ISO). The outfielder did have some troubling plate rates, though, with a low walk rate of 6.4% and a high strikeout rate of 25.1%. On the plus side, he has little pro experience so he has room (and time) to improve. The left-handed hitter did a nice job of handling southpaws by posting a .933 OPS on the heels of a .400 BABIP. His OPS against right-handers was .832. Kieschnick is a hustler on the base paths and in the field despite average speed. He also has the arm strength for right field.

6. Brandon Crawford, SS, Double-A
DOB: January 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – UCLA
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Crawford is an interesting prospect because people either love him (and see him as a regular big league contributor) or they hate him (and see him as a big league utility player at best). Not really known for his bat in college, Crawford had a lot of success in the lower minors and hit .371/.445/.600 in 105 high-A at-bats to being the ’09 season. The shortstop had a more difficult time in double-A, though, and hit .258/.294/.365 in 392 at-bats in a much more difficult league to hit in than the high-A California League. At the heart of Crawford’s problems at the dish are his plate rates. His walk rate dipped to 4.7% in double-A and his strikeout rate was 25.5% (while his power dipped from .229 to .107 after his promotion). Crawford may not hit for a high average in the Majors, but he could slug 15-20 homers and play above-average defense. At worst, I see him developing into former Blue Jay and Cub Alex Gonzalez.

7. Ehire Adrianza, SS, Low-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A gifted fielder, Adrianza can take his time developing his raw skills thanks to the presence of Crawford ahead of him. The slick Venezuelan showed some improvements at the plate in ’09 at low-A ball by hitting .258/.333/.327 in 388 at-bats. He clearly does not have much power right now (.070 ISO) and he also does not steal many bases (seven successes in eight tries) so Adrianza is currently a singles-hitter. As such, he currently projects as a possible Gold Glove infielder who will hit eighth in a National League lineup. He clearly tired late in ’09 and hit below .220 in August and September.

8. Clayton Tanner, LHP, High-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 3rd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 86-89 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Tanner isn’t flashy and he doesn’t have a great fastball, but the southpaw has been very successful in the minors. He posted a career-high 4.15 FIP in ’09 but he was pitching in the hitter-friendly California League (for the second straight year). Tanner showed improvements by reducing his hits allowed (132 in 139.1 IP) and he improved his strikeout rate to 7.82 K/9 while also showing solid control (2.71 BB/9). He was, though, hurt by the long-ball with a HR/9 rate of 1.16. With his narrow margin for error, it would be nice to see him improve upon his 46.5% ground-ball rate. He certainly performs better again left-handed hitters (0.96 vs 1.28 WHIP) so he should have a career in the bullpen at the very least.

9. Francisco Peguero, OF, Low-A
DOB: June 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

First the good: Peguero, 21, has hit like a mad man in North America, including a .340 average in low-A in ’09. Now the bad news: His walk rate was 2.0 BB% and his BABIP was .396. Moving back to positives, the outfielder also stole 22 bases in 27 tries in ’09. A solid defensive outfielder, Peguero is goes all out in the field and at the plate, which helps to explain his low walk rate. His arm strength is also off the charts. Along with his over-aggressive approach, Peguero needs to learn to drive the ball more consistently.

10. Waldis Joaquin, RHP, Majors
DOB: December 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up

The 10th man was a difficult decision and I went with a good arm, but one that projects as a reliever. Joaquin has been kicking around the system for more than seven seasons but he’s still just 23 years old. The right-hander still struggles with his control but he did a nice job of missing bats in both triple-A and the Majors in ’09. He also did not give up a homer last year until he reached the big leagues (zero in 64.0 innings), in part due to solid ground-ball rates (50% in ’09). The fastball-slider pitcher averaged 96 mph with his heater in the Majors. Despite relying on the slider and showing questionable control against them (5.86 BB/9), Joaquin dominated left-handed batters by holding them to a .140 batting average.

Up Next: The Texas Rangers

As best I can tell – using the B-Ref Play Index – there have been nine catchers in history to play at least 50% of their games at catcher carrying Jesus Montero’s size. If we needed something else besides scouts’ wishes to project a move from behind the plate, precedent is clearly behind that notion. The problem is, in the Yankees organization, the only other position available is Designated Hitter, as Mark Teixeira is firmly entrenched at first base until 2016. And deservedly so.

The overwhelming rhetoric is that Montero can support a move to any position, even one that only asks its occupants to hit the ball far and often. His size, his power, his contact skills were near historic levels last season, as he split his age-19 season between High-A and Double-A. However, to be thorough, I went through the Baseball America archives and looked for top 25 prospects that were only ranked on the prowess of their right-handed hitting. I tried to self-edit the players that drew even modest praise for their athleticism or defensive ability, eliminating Drew Henson and Derrek Lee (Andy Marte and Miguel Cabrera) for attempts at even-handedness. In 20 years of ranking prospects, I found 11 similar examples: Billy Butler, Conor Jackson, Brian Dopirak, Jason Stokes, Mike Cuddyer, J.R. House, Pat Burrell, Paul Konerko, Dave McCarty, Tim Costo, Todd Zeile.

This is surely not the most inspiring list for Yankees fans, who probably wonder why Frank Thomas could not have been ranked higher by BA in 1990, or why I eliminated Cabrera. But I think it does a nice job of highlighting the potential risks we have with Montero, and also shows the obvious All-Star upside as well. Two examples stick out as the most poignant: Billy Butler and Paul Konerko. Both are bad-bodied mashers, and Konerko is a guy who had to move from behind the plate young in his career. Butler and Montero split their age-19 seasons between High-A and Double-A, with these results:

Name      PA    K%   BB%   XBH%   BABIP
Butler   549  17.9   8.9   12.9   .374
Montero  379  12.4   7.4   11.4   .352

This is defining XBH% as XBH/PA, so these are big-time power numbers. I didn’t include Konerko, who didn’t take off until his age 20 season. But, I think Yankee fans would be happy if Montero followed Konerko’s path for his age-20 and -21 seasons, in Double and Triple-A, respectively.

Konerko   PA    K%   BB%   XBH%   BABIP
Age 20   572  15.2  12.8    9.6   .313
Age 21   560  10.9  11.4   12.3   .305

Now, let’s fast forward into Butler and Konerko’s Major League reality, using B-Ref’s per 162 games feature, accounting for Butler’s career up to this point, and Konerko’s first seven full big league seasons (1999-2005):

Name      PA   2B  3B   HR   BB   SO   BABIP
Butler   653   42   2   18   51   93   .318
Konerko  656   30   1   32   60   81   .285

Pick the middle ground, and I think this gives us a nice idea of what Montero might be able to do offensively. He’ll align closer with Butler in terms of BABIP and BB, closer with Konerko in strikeout rate and extra-base hit allotment. Overall, a player in the .290/.350/.500 range for his team-controlled seasons. Essentially, the player Konerko was in 2002 is what I envision for Montero. This .369 wOBA would have put him on par with Robinson Cano in last year’s Yankee lineup. He would be worth about 25 batting runs above replacement.

That is, choosing the Butler/Konerko path for Montero – which I think nicely middles the Dopirak/Stokes path and the Thomas/Cabrera path – means that Montero is +25 runs, +0 fielding, +20 replacement and -15 for positional adjustment. Overall, we’re looking at a 3-win player.

You’ll have to look 82 places lower in Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list to find the Yankees catcher of the future, Austin Romine. But what if Romine spends his team-controlled years getting 520 plate appearances (17.3 above replacement) from behind the plate (+9.7 positional adjustment). If my projection for Montero holds water, and Austin Romine can manage to put up a .340 wOBA and average defensive performance — no stretch at all for a top 100 prospect — then Austin Romine projects as a more valuable asset to the New York Yankees than Jesus Montero.

There are alternate realities for Jesus Montero, in which he gets traded and becomes a plus defensive first baseman down the road. There is a reality that he manages to stay behind the plate, and becomes something resembling Mike Piazza. There’s another where he splits time between back-up catcher and designated hitter, almost negating a positional adjustment in the process. This is a big season for Jesus Montero. If he shows scouts that he won’t do too much damage catching 50 games a season, his value as a top ten prospect stands. But if he stays in this organization, and moves from behind the plate like many scouts believe, Montero quickly becomes one of the game’s most overvalued prospects.

General Manager: Brian Sabean
Farm Director: Fred Stanley
Scouting Director: John Barr

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Zack Wheeler, RHP, Georgia HS
2. Tommy Joseph, C, Arizona HS
3. Chris Dominguez, 3B, Louisville
5x – Brandon Belt, 1B, Texas
6x – Matthew Graham, RHP, Texas HS

The Giants organization nabbed one of my favorite arms in the ’09 draft in Wheeler. The right-hander will not make his debut until the 2010 season and he’ll likely begin the season in extended spring training. Joseph also did not play in ’09 and he’s an offensive-minded catcher with good pop. He’ll likely join Wheeler in extended spring training.

Dominguez, the club’s first collegiate pick, displayed his well-documented power in short-season ball with nine homers in 181 at-bats, but he also showed why there are huge question marks surrounding his potential. He struck out at a 31.5% clip, while walking just 4.5% of the time. He has a very strong arm at third base.

Drafted as a pitcher out of high school, Belt showed more potential at the plate in college. Despite his size (6’5”, 200 lbs), the first baseman does not hit with as much home-run pop as you would expect so the organization may look to adjust his batting stance in order to maximize his power output. The club swayed Graham away from his North Carolina committed (with the aid of $500,000). The right-hander has a good fastball-curveball mix but consistency has eluded him thus far.

Keep an eye on fourth rounder Jason Stoffel. The late-game reliever could move quickly through the system.

2008 1st Round: Buster Posey, C, Florida State
1S. Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State
3. Roger Kieschnick, OF, Texas Tech
4x – Brandon Crawford, SS, UCLA

The organization could have packed up its bags and walked away from the draft after its first pick and it still would have had a very successful draft. Despite having just one pro season under his belt, Mr. Posey shows All-Star potential and could end 2010 as the big-league club’s starting catcher.

Gillaspie made it quickly to the Majors but but his ceiling is hampered by his serious lack of power (.100 ISO in ’09). He projects to have a Bill Mueller type of career, which is nice, but nothing to get too excited about. Kieschnick could perhaps give some of his power to Gillaspie. The outfielder has a very powerful bat and made the club’s Top 10 list. Crawford joins him on the list after zooming through the system in ’09.

Left-hander Scott Barnes (8th round) was flipped to Cleveland last season for first baseman Ryan Garko, who was then allowed to walk away at the end of the year.

2007 1st Round: Madison Bumgarner, LHP, North Carolina HS
1. Tim Alderson, RHP, Arizona HS
1. Wendell Fairley, OF, Mississippi HS
1S. Nick Noonan, 2B, California HS
1S. Jackson Williams, C, Oklahoma
1S. Charlie Culberson, SS, Georgia HS

The club nabbed two very promising arms at the top of this draft in Bumgarner and Alderson. The left-hander sits near the top of the club’s best prospects, while Alderson was sent to Pittsburgh in a questionable trade for (oft-injured) second baseman Freddy Sanchez.

Fairley was a head-scratcher from the start and he hasn’t performed well (.243/.323/.333 in low-A). Noonan hasn’t taken to pro ball quite as well as I though he would. His batting average has dropped each season while his strikeout rate has risen (and his power has remained static). He has some speed but he attempted just 14 steals in ’09 after nabbing 29 successfully in ’08.

Williams is one of the better defensive catchers in the minors, but his bat is a stretch even for triple-A. He hit .223/.316/.310 at double-A in ’09. Culberson was a bit of an over-draft with the club’s final supplemental pick and he hasn’t hit well in pro ball. He repeated low-A in ’09 and batted .246/.303/.306 in 509 at-bats.

Dan Runzler (9th round) is among the club’s top prospects and could play a significant role in the big league club’s bullpen in 2010. Despite a below-average fastball, Joe Paterson (10th round) could reach the Majors as a LOOGY. In double-A in ’09, he held left-handed batters to a .130 average and posted a strikeout rate of 11.10 K/9. Steve Edlefsen (16th round) is another under-the-radar reliever who could end up having some big-league value. The ground-ball pitcher (57.7 GB% in ’09) played at three levels in ’09 and topped out in triple-A. He needs to improve his control, though.

2006 1st Round: Tim Lincecum, RHP, Washington
1S. Emmanuel Burriss, SS, Kent State
3. Clayton Tanner, LHP, California HS

Like the Posey draft, the ’06 draft begins and ends with the first pick.

Burriss has seen some time in the Majors but he hasn’t really wowed anyone and his window to seize a full-time gig may have already slammed shut. I like Tanner, a soft-tosser, more than a lot of people and he’s on the Top 10 list. Ben Snyder (4th round) was a recent Rule 5 draft pick and he’s in camp with the Texas Rangers.

Infielder Ryan Rohlinger (6th round) has a chance to be a useful bench player for the Giants. Shortstop Brian Bocock (9th round) reached the Majors quickly out of necessity but he’s a glove-only player who was lost on waivers to Toronto (who then lost him to Philly).

Up Next: The San Francisco Giants Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Jack Zduriencik
Farm Director: Pedro Grifol
Scouting Director: Tom McNamara

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

After writing the Mariners’ draft review the other day, it became quite obvious that the Top 10 list did not come from mining the college and prep ranks. A good number of the prospects on this list have come from international signings, while two also came via the trade route. With that said, Dustin Ackley would easily be the club’s No. 1 prospect if I was including ’09 draftees and international signees.

1. Michael Saunders, OF, Majors
DOB: November 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2004 11th round – Tallahassee Community College
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1

Saunders showed some rough edges at the MLB level in ’09 by hitting .221/.258/.279 in 122 at-bats. That MLB triple-slash line came on the heels of a .310/.378/.544 line in triple-A. After stealing 20+ bases in ’06 and ’07, Saunders attempted just 14 thefts in ’09 between the two levels so it would be nice to see him incorporate the running game into his attack a little more often. Although he didn’t show it in the Majors (.057 ISO), Saunders does possess some pop (.234 ISO) and he showed solid defence in left field. With the addition of Milton Bradley and Eric Byrnes at the MLB level, the outfield is crowded in Seattle so Saunders could very well spend much of the year in triple-A but he could be the first man recalled if an injury occurs.

2. Adam Moore, C, Majors
DOB: May 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 6th round – University of Texas-Arlington
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

The club is relying heavily on youth behind the plate in ’09 with the likely tandem of Rob Johnson and Adam Moore. The club chose not to dip into the veteran catcher free agent pool (Yorvit Torrealba, Rod Barajas) this past off-season, save for a few non-roster invites to the likes of Josh Bard and Eliezer Alfonzo. The 25-year-old Moore had a nice offensive showing in triple-A in ’09 by hitting .294/.346/.429 in 340 at-bats. He has some raw power but his ISO rates have slowly eroded away since hitting 22 homers (.236 ISO) in high-A in ’07. His rate in triple-A in ’09 was .135. Moore walks a modest amount (7.1%) but he keeps the strikeout rate at a reasonable level (15.0%). Behind the plate, he threw out 31% of base stealers and still has some work to do on his receiving skills.

3. Carlos Triunfel, 3B, Double-A
DOB: February 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Triunfel was zooming through the minor league system and reached double-A in ’09 as a 19 year old, but the infielder’s season came to a crashing halt when he broke his leg in April. He made it back for the Arizona Fall League where he hit .204 but he was reportedly bothered by his leg. Looking back to ’08, the third baseman hit .287/.336/.406 in 436 at-bats in high-A. He also stole 30 bases in 39 tries so it will be interesting to see if his injury affects his speed going forward. With an ISO of just .119 in ’08, Originally a shortstop, Triunfel does not really fit the profile of a third baseman but he’s expected to play there in the future, unless he can stick at second base. Only 20, Triunfel is just beginning to tap into his potential.

4. Alex Liddi, 3B, High-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Italy)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It’s amazing what a good hitter’s environment can do for a player’s value. With Liddi, though, the improvement is considered to be part league-affected and part realization of potential. Signed out of Italy, the third baseman is still learning the finer aspects of the game and he’ll play 2010 under a much larger microscope after catching fans’ attentions with a line of .345/.411/.594. His wOBA jumped from .314 in ’08 at low-A to .431 in high-A in ’09. Although his plate rates were almost identical to ’08, Liddi made a number of statistical leaps, most notably: OPS from .673 to 1.005, ISO from .116 to .249. The huge increase in power in just one season is a little suspicious and could very well be the product of his environment in high-A. His batting average of .345 (.244 in ’08) was fueled by a .413 BABIP. Defensively, Liddi has shown some improvements at third, but he may never be better than average at the hot corner. If ’09 wasn’t a fluke, though, his bat might be able to play anywhere on the field.

5. Michael Pineda, RHP, High-A
DOB: January 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

A beast on the mound at 6’5” 250 lbs, Pineda was let down by his elbow in ’09 as his season was interrupted in mid-May and he did not return until August. The elbow soreness that he experienced is cause for concern going forward, but the right-hander has a bright future ahead of him if he can put the issue behind him. Just 20 in ’09, Pineda posted a 2.73 FIP in 10 appearances (eight starts) in high-A despite playing in a good hitter’s league. He allowed just 29 hits in 44.1 innings of work and showed outstanding control for his age with a walk rate of 1.22 BB/9. His low-90s fastball and good (but inconsistent) slider helped him post a strikeout rate of 9.74 K/9. It will be interesting to see if the organization returns Pineda to high-A in 2010 or pushes him to double-A.

6. Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B, Majors
DOB: May 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 3rd round – Washington HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

There are two distinct thoughts on Tuiasosopo. One camp sees the infielder flicking the baseball light switch on thanks to his impressive athletic abilities, while the other camp sees him as a future bench player in the Majors, at best. The third baseman has yet to master the art of consistency. In a season marred by injury, Tuiasosopo broke through in his power numbers (.212 ISO in triple-A) but he continues to struggle to hit for average. Although he shows patience at the plate (13.4%), the infielder also swings at a lot of bad pitches and posted a strikeout rate of 36.7 K% in ’09. In two brief stints in the Majors, he hit just .182/.236/.303.

7. Nick Hill, LHP, Double-A
DOB: January 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 7th round – US Military Academy
MLB ETA: 40-Man Roster: Options:
Repertoire: 86-89 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

It’s not often that relievers show up on the Top 10 list but Hill had a solid showing in ’09 and could be an important contributor to the Major League bullpen in 2010. The club lacks a true left-handed reliever, although it has some fringe starters who could shift to the ‘pen, so Hill could help fill that void. Pitching at double-A in ’09, the southpaw posted a 2.76 FIP in 95.2 innings. Despite an average fastball in terms of velocity, Hill posted a strikeout rate of 9.41 K/9. He also showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.26 BB/9 and gets good sink on his offerings (53.5 GB%). Encouragingly, Hill is not helpless against right-handed batters, as they hit just .215 against him.

8. Gabriel Noriega, SS, Rookie
DOB: September 1990 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

You have to dream a little bit with Noriega. The 19-year-old shortstop has spent the past two seasons in rookie ball so he still has a long way to climb. He showed a nice stick in ’09 by hitting .311/.360/.456 in 206 at-bats. He also improved his patience at the plate over ’08 by increasing his walk rate from 3.4 to 7.0 BB%. Noriega has a little pop in his bat (.146 ISO) but his strikeout rate needs to improve (29.1%). In truth, Noriega’s bat is far from the most impressive part of his game. Defense is where the infielder really shines and those that like him a lot see him as a future Gold Glover at shortstop. He’ll certainly have no issues with staying at the position unless he fills out too much and has to shift to third base, but that should be down the line a ways if it occurs at all.

9. Maikel Cleto, RHP, Low-A
DOB: May 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (New York NL)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-97 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Cleto, like Pineda, had his ’09 season cut short and he made just eight appearances in low-A. Luckily, his season was delayed by visa issues and not an injury. The right-hander is one of the hardest throwers in the system and his fastball can touch the high-90s. Along with his velocity, Cleto has shown good sink, which has produced some good ground-ball numbers in the low minors. Unfortunately, he’s really a one-pitch pitcher right now and there has been talk of moving him to the bullpen where he could develop into a late-game rock. The 2010 season will be huge for Cleto in terms of solidifying his prospect value.

10. Johermyn Chavez, OF, Low-A
DOB: January 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Toronto)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Chavez slips onto the back end of the Top 10 list after being acquired from Toronto in the Brandon Morrow deal this past off-season. I’ve had a chance to follow him closely over the past three years and I truly believe he has a good shot at developing into a solid big league outfielder. He repeated low-A in ’09 but he was not old for the league at 20. Chavez was second in the league in homers (his ISO rate was 9th) and fourth in RBIs on a not-so-good Lansing squad. After posting a strikeout rate of 27 K% or more in each of the past three seasons, it’s clear that he needs to make a little more contact. Although he’s not a great base runner, Chavez has the ability to nab double-digit steals and he has a strong arm and profiles well in right field. He played a lot of left field in ’08 due to the presence of Moises Sierra, who has one of the strongest arms in the minors.

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