Seattle Mariners: Top 10 Prospects
General Manager: Jack Zduriencik
Farm Director: Pedro Grifol
Scouting Director: Tom McNamara
FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)
After writing the Mariners’ draft review the other day, it became quite obvious that the Top 10 list did not come from mining the college and prep ranks. A good number of the prospects on this list have come from international signings, while two also came via the trade route. With that said, Dustin Ackley would easily be the club’s No. 1 prospect if I was including ’09 draftees and international signees.
1. Michael Saunders, OF, Majors
DOB: November 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2004 11th round – Tallahassee Community College
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1
Saunders showed some rough edges at the MLB level in ’09 by hitting .221/.258/.279 in 122 at-bats. That MLB triple-slash line came on the heels of a .310/.378/.544 line in triple-A. After stealing 20+ bases in ’06 and ’07, Saunders attempted just 14 thefts in ’09 between the two levels so it would be nice to see him incorporate the running game into his attack a little more often. Although he didn’t show it in the Majors (.057 ISO), Saunders does possess some pop (.234 ISO) and he showed solid defence in left field. With the addition of Milton Bradley and Eric Byrnes at the MLB level, the outfield is crowded in Seattle so Saunders could very well spend much of the year in triple-A but he could be the first man recalled if an injury occurs.
2. Adam Moore, C, Majors
DOB: May 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 6th round – University of Texas-Arlington
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
The club is relying heavily on youth behind the plate in ’09 with the likely tandem of Rob Johnson and Adam Moore. The club chose not to dip into the veteran catcher free agent pool (Yorvit Torrealba, Rod Barajas) this past off-season, save for a few non-roster invites to the likes of Josh Bard and Eliezer Alfonzo. The 25-year-old Moore had a nice offensive showing in triple-A in ’09 by hitting .294/.346/.429 in 340 at-bats. He has some raw power but his ISO rates have slowly eroded away since hitting 22 homers (.236 ISO) in high-A in ’07. His rate in triple-A in ’09 was .135. Moore walks a modest amount (7.1%) but he keeps the strikeout rate at a reasonable level (15.0%). Behind the plate, he threw out 31% of base stealers and still has some work to do on his receiving skills.
3. Carlos Triunfel, 3B, Double-A
DOB: February 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Triunfel was zooming through the minor league system and reached double-A in ’09 as a 19 year old, but the infielder’s season came to a crashing halt when he broke his leg in April. He made it back for the Arizona Fall League where he hit .204 but he was reportedly bothered by his leg. Looking back to ’08, the third baseman hit .287/.336/.406 in 436 at-bats in high-A. He also stole 30 bases in 39 tries so it will be interesting to see if his injury affects his speed going forward. With an ISO of just .119 in ’08, Originally a shortstop, Triunfel does not really fit the profile of a third baseman but he’s expected to play there in the future, unless he can stick at second base. Only 20, Triunfel is just beginning to tap into his potential.
4. Alex Liddi, 3B, High-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Italy)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
It’s amazing what a good hitter’s environment can do for a player’s value. With Liddi, though, the improvement is considered to be part league-affected and part realization of potential. Signed out of Italy, the third baseman is still learning the finer aspects of the game and he’ll play 2010 under a much larger microscope after catching fans’ attentions with a line of .345/.411/.594. His wOBA jumped from .314 in ’08 at low-A to .431 in high-A in ’09. Although his plate rates were almost identical to ’08, Liddi made a number of statistical leaps, most notably: OPS from .673 to 1.005, ISO from .116 to .249. The huge increase in power in just one season is a little suspicious and could very well be the product of his environment in high-A. His batting average of .345 (.244 in ’08) was fueled by a .413 BABIP. Defensively, Liddi has shown some improvements at third, but he may never be better than average at the hot corner. If ’09 wasn’t a fluke, though, his bat might be able to play anywhere on the field.
5. Michael Pineda, RHP, High-A
DOB: January 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up
A beast on the mound at 6’5” 250 lbs, Pineda was let down by his elbow in ’09 as his season was interrupted in mid-May and he did not return until August. The elbow soreness that he experienced is cause for concern going forward, but the right-hander has a bright future ahead of him if he can put the issue behind him. Just 20 in ’09, Pineda posted a 2.73 FIP in 10 appearances (eight starts) in high-A despite playing in a good hitter’s league. He allowed just 29 hits in 44.1 innings of work and showed outstanding control for his age with a walk rate of 1.22 BB/9. His low-90s fastball and good (but inconsistent) slider helped him post a strikeout rate of 9.74 K/9. It will be interesting to see if the organization returns Pineda to high-A in 2010 or pushes him to double-A.
6. Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B, Majors
DOB: May 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 3rd round – Washington HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
There are two distinct thoughts on Tuiasosopo. One camp sees the infielder flicking the baseball light switch on thanks to his impressive athletic abilities, while the other camp sees him as a future bench player in the Majors, at best. The third baseman has yet to master the art of consistency. In a season marred by injury, Tuiasosopo broke through in his power numbers (.212 ISO in triple-A) but he continues to struggle to hit for average. Although he shows patience at the plate (13.4%), the infielder also swings at a lot of bad pitches and posted a strikeout rate of 36.7 K% in ’09. In two brief stints in the Majors, he hit just .182/.236/.303.
7. Nick Hill, LHP, Double-A
DOB: January 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 7th round – US Military Academy
MLB ETA: 40-Man Roster: Options:
Repertoire: 86-89 mph fastball, curveball, change-up
It’s not often that relievers show up on the Top 10 list but Hill had a solid showing in ’09 and could be an important contributor to the Major League bullpen in 2010. The club lacks a true left-handed reliever, although it has some fringe starters who could shift to the ‘pen, so Hill could help fill that void. Pitching at double-A in ’09, the southpaw posted a 2.76 FIP in 95.2 innings. Despite an average fastball in terms of velocity, Hill posted a strikeout rate of 9.41 K/9. He also showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.26 BB/9 and gets good sink on his offerings (53.5 GB%). Encouragingly, Hill is not helpless against right-handed batters, as they hit just .215 against him.
8. Gabriel Noriega, SS, Rookie
DOB: September 1990 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
You have to dream a little bit with Noriega. The 19-year-old shortstop has spent the past two seasons in rookie ball so he still has a long way to climb. He showed a nice stick in ’09 by hitting .311/.360/.456 in 206 at-bats. He also improved his patience at the plate over ’08 by increasing his walk rate from 3.4 to 7.0 BB%. Noriega has a little pop in his bat (.146 ISO) but his strikeout rate needs to improve (29.1%). In truth, Noriega’s bat is far from the most impressive part of his game. Defense is where the infielder really shines and those that like him a lot see him as a future Gold Glover at shortstop. He’ll certainly have no issues with staying at the position unless he fills out too much and has to shift to third base, but that should be down the line a ways if it occurs at all.
9. Maikel Cleto, RHP, Low-A
DOB: May 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (New York NL)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-97 mph fastball, slider, change-up
Cleto, like Pineda, had his ’09 season cut short and he made just eight appearances in low-A. Luckily, his season was delayed by visa issues and not an injury. The right-hander is one of the hardest throwers in the system and his fastball can touch the high-90s. Along with his velocity, Cleto has shown good sink, which has produced some good ground-ball numbers in the low minors. Unfortunately, he’s really a one-pitch pitcher right now and there has been talk of moving him to the bullpen where he could develop into a late-game rock. The 2010 season will be huge for Cleto in terms of solidifying his prospect value.
10. Johermyn Chavez, OF, Low-A
DOB: January 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Toronto)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Chavez slips onto the back end of the Top 10 list after being acquired from Toronto in the Brandon Morrow deal this past off-season. I’ve had a chance to follow him closely over the past three years and I truly believe he has a good shot at developing into a solid big league outfielder. He repeated low-A in ’09 but he was not old for the league at 20. Chavez was second in the league in homers (his ISO rate was 9th) and fourth in RBIs on a not-so-good Lansing squad. After posting a strikeout rate of 27 K% or more in each of the past three seasons, it’s clear that he needs to make a little more contact. Although he’s not a great base runner, Chavez has the ability to nab double-digit steals and he has a strong arm and profiles well in right field. He played a lot of left field in ’08 due to the presence of Moises Sierra, who has one of the strongest arms in the minors.
Up Next: The San Francisco Giants
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
Despite his struggles last year, I think Greg Halman should probably remain on a list like this. His potential, should his immense power and speed to flourish at the MLB level, is simply too great regardless of how low his floor is.
Perhaps the regression of Chris Young has scared people off, but the differences between these two aren’t that much.
The differences between the two are huge. Halman struck out 6 times as much as he walked last year. At his worst in the minors Young struck out less than 2.5 times as much as he walked and he showed steady progression in that category at each subsequent stop.
Halman may have more potential than many of the guys on this list, but until he shows some sustained progress towards realizing it he doesn’t belong ahead of any of them.
What about Josh Fields? I haven’t heard much about him, but he was supposed to be MLB ready? I’m wondering if he is still highly thought of and will be be contributing soon?
I saw Fields pitch in the Arizona Fall League. I am not an expert but from what I can tell, he had good movement on his pitches and when he missed he missed low. The Mariner’s bullpen is pretty locked up right now, but it wouldn’t suprise me at all to see Fields as a September call this year.
Here is a photo I took from the AFL: http://www.flickr.com/photos/marksobba/4074373186/
And here is some video and the M’s coaches talking about Fields: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2011188603_mariners_do_some_live_pitching.html?syndication=rss
You could make a case for Fields vs Cleto on this list just on the basis of closeness to the majors, but ultimately how excited can you get about any relief pitcher?
I don’t know much about the Mariners farm system but since there’s some M’s fans on here I figure I ask. Does anybody know anything about Maurico Robles and what he looks like? He’s the guy they got in the Washburn trade along with Lucas French from the Tigers. I know some people on the Tigers’ boards I visit said he was one of the top prospects in their organization.(the only reason it was brought up was because people were breaking down how horrible the Washburn trade was for us)
Robles had a rough start upon coming over to Seattle, but the last month (5-6 starts) he was pretty nasty. Lots of K’s, limited the walks somewhat, and limited good contact.
He’s been very impressive in camp so far. A lot of folks in the front office have pointed him out as a guy who has looked good and the vets were raving about his changeup when he threw live BP yesterday.
If he wasn’t a small statured guy he’d be a lot higher on this prospect lists in my opinion.
Here’s an article by one of the Seattle Times beat writers on Robles from a month ago:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2011220063_mari01.html
Keeping in mind it’s an early-ST, follow-the-party-line sort of “getting to know the prospects” piece, it does sum up how the organization feels about him. And as Jud notes, he went on to shine in limited work after that.
Josh Fields ? Considering that the Mariners could have got the 21st pick in the latest draft instead of Fields, I would much rather them have taken the chance on using the pick to draft someone like Kyle Gibson, Eric Arnett, or Rex Brothers. For this reason I am really gonna hold Fields to a higher standard until he shows why he was a first rounder.
To any Mariners fans, does anyone understand why Jack Z signed Fields instead of taking the compensation pick? It seemed like a short sighted low upside poor decision pick by the former front office and considering how quickly Jack Z has jettisoned some similar players, Amounte and that guy who’s name I can’t remember with diabetes who struggled to stay healthy, I would have figured it would have been a near no brainer to just not sign Fields. But considering nearly everything else Z has done has turned to gold I’d assume there must have been some sound reasoning behind it that I just don’t see.
From things I’ve heard, he basically said he was respecting the research that the previous leadership in the organization had used to decide on Fields as the selection.
You can’t turn in draft picks 2 years in a row. Meaning if they had put Fields back in the draft, and recieved the 21st pick as compensation, Ackley (Boras) would have held a huge negociation chip. Boras could have basically named their price. If the Mariners turned in Fields, then failed to sign Ackley they would have recieved no compensation for the #2 pick in 2009.
This is incorrect. They would not have been compensated with pick 21/22 if the 21 pick received for not signing Fields failed to sign as well; Your regularly scheduled pick is not affected by this.
* – I’m only 90% on this because I can’t find a more reputable source than http://wiki.soxprospects.com/MLB+Compensatory+Draft+Pick+System to verify, but it matches what I understood so I’m going with it.
Ah, here we go: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090817&content_id=6470746&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb&partnerId=rss_mlb
Even though the Nationals did not sign Crow in 2008, they still would have been compensated with pick 1A in 2010 had they not signed Strasburg. Had they not signed Storen at 9A (the Crow compensatory pick) they would not have received further compensation.
Interesting
Your point remains a good one, though. If Fields was turned away and Zduriencik drafted someone else with 21A, that player would have the leverage to demand more because 21A won’t be there in 2011. The Mariners would be forced to either overpay, overdraft, or potentially both. (Damn you, Steve Baron!)
It’s entirely possible that Fields at $1.75 million was Zduriencik’s best option.
One of the only mistakes Jack has made so far.
When you look back at the this year’s draft it’s a little upsetting that we didn’t have that 1st round comp pick. We certainly could have added an arm like Arnett or Brothers.
There is also the chance they were hoping that Washington would be scared off by Strasburg’s demands and take Ackley #1 and let Stras fall to the Mariners at #2. So spending the money on Fields ensured that they didn’t have two high draft picks and one of them being an expensive player like Stras. Not sure if this played any part at all in their reasons to sign Fields or not, but it is something I thought about.
I am still pissed that the Mariners managed to lose out on the #1 pick by winning their last three games of the 2008 season. If they could have lost them, we would have had a worse record than Washington. We had lost 14 out of 15 going into that final series against Oakland… UGH!
I’ve never heard it said by anyone connected to the team, or by anyone else, either, but I wonder if it wasn’t a budget issue. Nobody knows how the M’s handle their budget, but there have been a couple of examples (Sasaki comes to mind) where the M’s got a windfall out of a player they were expecting to pay, but the money didn’t get rolled over into the following years budget. It may have been that Jack would’ve lost the bonus money slated to go to Fields’ pick that year, and not had enough bonus money to hand out to picks the following year (with the extra compensation pick added on to what they already had).
Pure speculation.
Liddi was not “drafted out of Italy.”
I don’t see how one could worry about leverage considering that with the exception of Ackley, the next four picks Jack Z made had deals in place before the draft and all signed for what was expected. To be fair, since all the guys were targeted, Jack could have selected Franklin 21st (or Mier), Baron 27th, and then could have used #33 to go after a guy like Brothers who had fallen or even Tanner Sheppers. Or, if Porythress was really the guy he wanted, taken him 33rd and used #51 to sign someone like Andrew Oliver who in on the Tigers top ten prospects. Franklin, Baron and Porythress were not going to sign for abover slot no matter where Jack took them.
I’m a big GMZ admirer but he’s human, his picking up Ronny Cedeno (which I liked at the time) turned out not so great and the judgement on the Morrow/League deal is still to be made. As for the emphasis on international signings, everyone has a shot at them under the current rules so why not take what you can get? I also like his reform of the Ms conditioning program and locking up its originator on a three year exclusive agreement. He’s more than just a pretty face.
Cedeno is a perfect example of how to handle a mistake. The front office was concerned about Betancourt and so they pick up Cedeno. Betancourt wasn’t working so they moved him. Cedeno wasn’t working so they moved him as well.
It wasn’t just that a mistake had been made, but it was recognized and the front office moved to do something about it. This front office isn’t going to try to pretend they made a good choice and not do anything about it. They will mistakes and move forward. As Jack Z says “We are always trying to make the team better”.
I love vintage artifacts like those, thanks for posting these. Looking forward to more!
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