WAR’s Favorite Position
As best I can tell – using the B-Ref Play Index – there have been nine catchers in history to play at least 50% of their games at catcher carrying Jesus Montero’s size. If we needed something else besides scouts’ wishes to project a move from behind the plate, precedent is clearly behind that notion. The problem is, in the Yankees organization, the only other position available is Designated Hitter, as Mark Teixeira is firmly entrenched at first base until 2016. And deservedly so.
The overwhelming rhetoric is that Montero can support a move to any position, even one that only asks its occupants to hit the ball far and often. His size, his power, his contact skills were near historic levels last season, as he split his age-19 season between High-A and Double-A. However, to be thorough, I went through the Baseball America archives and looked for top 25 prospects that were only ranked on the prowess of their right-handed hitting. I tried to self-edit the players that drew even modest praise for their athleticism or defensive ability, eliminating Drew Henson and Derrek Lee (Andy Marte and Miguel Cabrera) for attempts at even-handedness. In 20 years of ranking prospects, I found 11 similar examples: Billy Butler, Conor Jackson, Brian Dopirak, Jason Stokes, Mike Cuddyer, J.R. House, Pat Burrell, Paul Konerko, Dave McCarty, Tim Costo, Todd Zeile.
This is surely not the most inspiring list for Yankees fans, who probably wonder why Frank Thomas could not have been ranked higher by BA in 1990, or why I eliminated Cabrera. But I think it does a nice job of highlighting the potential risks we have with Montero, and also shows the obvious All-Star upside as well. Two examples stick out as the most poignant: Billy Butler and Paul Konerko. Both are bad-bodied mashers, and Konerko is a guy who had to move from behind the plate young in his career. Butler and Montero split their age-19 seasons between High-A and Double-A, with these results:
Name PA K% BB% XBH% BABIP Butler 549 17.9 8.9 12.9 .374 Montero 379 12.4 7.4 11.4 .352
This is defining XBH% as XBH/PA, so these are big-time power numbers. I didn’t include Konerko, who didn’t take off until his age 20 season. But, I think Yankee fans would be happy if Montero followed Konerko’s path for his age-20 and -21 seasons, in Double and Triple-A, respectively.
Konerko PA K% BB% XBH% BABIP Age 20 572 15.2 12.8 9.6 .313 Age 21 560 10.9 11.4 12.3 .305
Now, let’s fast forward into Butler and Konerko’s Major League reality, using B-Ref’s per 162 games feature, accounting for Butler’s career up to this point, and Konerko’s first seven full big league seasons (1999-2005):
Name PA 2B 3B HR BB SO BABIP Butler 653 42 2 18 51 93 .318 Konerko 656 30 1 32 60 81 .285
Pick the middle ground, and I think this gives us a nice idea of what Montero might be able to do offensively. He’ll align closer with Butler in terms of BABIP and BB, closer with Konerko in strikeout rate and extra-base hit allotment. Overall, a player in the .290/.350/.500 range for his team-controlled seasons. Essentially, the player Konerko was in 2002 is what I envision for Montero. This .369 wOBA would have put him on par with Robinson Cano in last year’s Yankee lineup. He would be worth about 25 batting runs above replacement.
That is, choosing the Butler/Konerko path for Montero – which I think nicely middles the Dopirak/Stokes path and the Thomas/Cabrera path – means that Montero is +25 runs, +0 fielding, +20 replacement and -15 for positional adjustment. Overall, we’re looking at a 3-win player.
You’ll have to look 82 places lower in Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list to find the Yankees catcher of the future, Austin Romine. But what if Romine spends his team-controlled years getting 520 plate appearances (17.3 above replacement) from behind the plate (+9.7 positional adjustment). If my projection for Montero holds water, and Austin Romine can manage to put up a .340 wOBA and average defensive performance — no stretch at all for a top 100 prospect — then Austin Romine projects as a more valuable asset to the New York Yankees than Jesus Montero.
There are alternate realities for Jesus Montero, in which he gets traded and becomes a plus defensive first baseman down the road. There is a reality that he manages to stay behind the plate, and becomes something resembling Mike Piazza. There’s another where he splits time between back-up catcher and designated hitter, almost negating a positional adjustment in the process. This is a big season for Jesus Montero. If he shows scouts that he won’t do too much damage catching 50 games a season, his value as a top ten prospect stands. But if he stays in this organization, and moves from behind the plate like many scouts believe, Montero quickly becomes one of the game’s most overvalued prospects.
Really good article Bryan. I would love to see this turned into a series.
You go through a series of statistical comparisons to derive Montero’s most likely wOBA at .369. Then you do a little bit of handwaving to come up with Romine carrying a .340 wOBA, simply because he’s on a top 100 list. If that’s the case, why don’t we just project Montero at a .400 wOBA — since after all that’s very no stretch at all for a top 5 prospect.
I’ll bet if you took a list of statistically comparable catching prospects to Romine at this stage and split the difference between the top end and the busts, the most likely outcome would be AAAA or platoon player.
Jibs: Probably unclear on my part, but I’m not projecting Romine at all. I’m saying if he managed a .340 wOBA and 0 UZR, he’d be equal to the Montero we’re talking about (.369 wOBA at DH spot).
I thought it served as a nice frame of reference to see just how much position adjustments can affect a player’s potential production. I’ll go in and see if I can make that more clear in a while.
And because I love my readers, I’m going back right now and looking for catchers that BA ranked from 50-100 that put up a sub-.800 OPS at a lower level at a younger age:
Guillermo Quiroz, Russ Martin, John Buck, Ryan Christianson, Ben Petrick, Ramon Hernandez, Ben Davis, Pat Cline, Bobby Estalella, Javier Valentin, Brook Fordyce, Mike Lieberthal, Javy Lopez.
This is a really interesting group. You have Martin/Lopez on the high side, and guys like Quiroz/Cline/Christianson on the low side. In the middle, you have some guys that were serviceable starters (Hernandez/Buck) and guys that were serviceable back-ups (estalella/Valentin).
So, jibs is correct to the degree that I should note Romine has a much higher bust rate than Montero. A .340 wOBA for Romine will actually place him above the 50th percentile of his projections, although I do think that’s possible.
You just depressed the heck out of Yankees fans.
he didn’t depress me. this is the emperor’s new clothes at it’s finest.
I’d like to see more support for the idea that those 11 similar players to Montero are really all that similar in terms of age and level of production.
I’ve seen the Butler comp in a couple of places before and it’s a pretty good one, but even there Montero has a huge advantage in K% (12.4 vs 17.9).
I think the point about the importance of positional adjustments is a good one, but I think you’ve undersold how uniquely accomplished Montero is in order to make it.
To be fair, I didn’t take any average of the 11 players, or really do anything with the list as a whole. It was a point of research that led me to Butler/Konerko.
In fact, all I said I did was middle the Frank Thomas and Miguel Cabrera path with the Jason Stokes and Brian Dopirak one. And I think I leaned closer to the former with two solid veterans.
Don’t forget about park/league effects. Billy Butler and Paul Konerko spent most of their age 19 seasons in the California League. Montero wreaked his damage mostly in the FSL. Dopirak never possessed the contact skills that Montero does. Jason Stokes was way, way behind Montero.
As a 19 year old hitter, Montero is further advanced than anyone in many, many years. Cabrera went .274/.333/.421 in the FSL at that age. Vladdy was in the GCL at that age and two years away from blowing away the Eastern League. Ruben Sierra lacked his contact abilities.
Personally, I think Montero is, if anything, underrated. And I’m a Jay fan whose preference in prospects runs to players with a broad range of abilities.
I just can’t see how he can be underrated if you don’t even talk about his future position. Restricting yourself to analysis centered around a player’s offensive peak is antiquated. What does he do in his team-controlled seasons given Mark Teixeira’s presence in the organization?
Even if we say he’s +40 runs for years 1-7 with the bat, we’re talking about a 4.5 win player at DH. And that’s projecting 2009 A-Rod offensively for seven years. I’m still not yet prepared to do that.
Not considering park factors is antiquated.
Bryan,
Nice write up. I actually compared Montero to Butler too yesterday when my blog launched. Great minds think alike!
Great work, imo.
Josh
Cashman has also mentioned RF as a possible destination for Montero. It’s hard to imagine that he would be worse than Dunn, and possibly significantly better.
As a Yankees fan I’ve been very encouraged with the progress and the steps the organization is taking with regards to Montero’s defense. They’re a catcher-rich organization with great coaches and I personally believe Montero will benefit greatly from their tutoring. Catching is more of a craft that requires experience and extremely hard work, rather than a position such as SS or CF which requires a greater degree of athleticisim.
My hope is that he can split time between catching and DH when he is first called up (2011) and sticks with the club. I don’t think having Montero behind the plate is as far-fetched as most people think. It should also be noted that Montero will be 25/26 when Teixeira’s contract is up. Food for thought…
This is a good place to note that if Montero sticks behind the plate, I do not think he is overvalued. It’s to say I think he has been ranked too high given the lack of certainty about his future position, which represents a 3 WIN swing in potential WAR.
Let’s say Frank here is right, and Montero splits 600 PA evenly between catching (-5 defense in 300 PA = -5 position adjustment + defense). Given the same offensive performance, we’ve just added a win to his projection.
There’s huge value in position.
Montero will be a 20-year old AAA catcher this year. He’ll be all of 27 years old when Teixeira’s contract is up, so the Yankees can sign him to play there during his peak seasons instead of retaining an aging Teixeira or dipping into the free agent market again. In the meantime, Monetero can be plenty useful during his cost-controlled years as a part-time catcher, most-time DH and occasional 1B.
Yes, there’s huge value in position, but the wailing and gnashing of teeth over Montero’s position is really a bit much. If you can hit like that they find a place to play you.
“but the wailing and gnashing of teeth over Montero’s position is really a bit much. If you can hit like that they find a place to play you.”
Montero’s playing time is not in question, and hasn’t been part of this discussion. Obviously, his historic minor league performances suggest the Yankees very well might make room. But his position discussion is not “a bit much”. Position is one of only FOUR factors we use to determine a player’s value (WAR) on this site.
To repeat, Montero stands to add or subtract THREE WINS PER SEASON based on his future position. That’s worth well more than $10 million/year on the open market.
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“He’ll be all of 27 years old when Teixeira’s contract is up, so the Yankees can sign him to play there during his peak seasons instead of retaining an aging Teixeira or dipping into the free agent market again.”
But Montero would be a free agent soon after. So this means the market would determine his contract, and he will be paid appropriately for his services. His value as a prospect cannot consider those seasons. We need to worry about how he’ll perform when he’s a discount to the Yankees. And most of that time will be with Teixeira entrenched at 1B.
“there” = “1B” in previous comment, of course.
I think people are missing the point-
Most evidence suggests that Montero won’t stick at catcher (scouting reports argue he’s got a good arm but is very slow to release the ball and is still pretty raw at everything else and then there’s the entire point about how he’s likely going to be way too big to stick at catcher, regardless of ability).
The Yankees are currently locked in at 1b forever. It’s doubtful that Montero is going to be able to play anywhere other than 1b over his career.
The questions we need to ask are the following:
1) Assuming Montero is stuck at DH for the first several years of his contract, what type of numbers would he have produce to be seen as one of the five best talents in the game? He’d have to outhit 2003-2007 David Ortiz to achieve that level and chances are, he won’t do that (he could, but those were really good years).
2) Could Montero be hidden anywhere apart from DH over the next several years on NY? How bad could his defense be to not negate much of his significant offensive output? Manny Ramirez is a hall of famer, but his defense has relegated him to “only” being a 5 win player during some truly fantastic offensive seasons.
Really, I don’t believe much of this should impact Montero’s rating that much. It’s not his fault that he’s currently blocked by Teix at 1b. But the author is damn right about how Montero being a DH will seriously cut into his value.
To me, this piece is more about how we come to understand value than how good Montero is. The ability to play a position helps a lot; being able to play that position well, further increases value. Elvis Andrus posted a WAR of 3.0 last seasons; think about that for a moment.
A DH with a .850 OPS is worth about as much as a flashy SS with OPS .702.
For a true DH (Montero doesn’t fit that description, he could be a solid and perhaps even good 1b) they’d have to damn near lead the league in OPS in order to produce as much value as an excellent defensive SS with a league average OPS.
Thank you, Mike. You have seen the article in the way it was intended. I agree with just about everything you have written, although I do want to clarify this point:
“It’s not his fault that he’s currently blocked by Teix at 1b.”
Fault doesn’t have a lot to do with it. This is Montero’s reality. MLB is chock full of examples of alternate realities players could have had if not for someone that they were impeded by. I’m not denigrating Montero’s abilities as a player, but instead, commenting on how he might have more value to the Yankees as a trade piece than a DH.
Thanks for the response, a couple of notes/ questions.
Regarding this being Montero’s reality- I fully understand that yes, at the moment he is blocked at 1b and thus could be relegated to DH. However, I do wonder if it would be wise to allow such a fact impact his ranking among the game’s elite prospects. If theoretically, he could be an acceptable 1b shouldn’t his value be seen as such as opposed to a DH. Should a team’s inability to maximize the value of a player impact the way outsiders such as ourselves rank the player in question?
Additionally, does it really matter that the Yankees (or any other team) would stash a player capable of playing elsewhere on the spectrum at DH? Short of the elder sluggers who’ve aged beyond their use in the field, it would seem that most DHs could play somewhere. Is it really a waste of resources to have a guy like Montero hammering pitching out of the DH spot?
I hope Mike’s latest comment doesn’t get lost in the fray here, so I’m going to throw some stars around the quote in question. It’s a good one.
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“Should a team’s inability to maximize the value of a player impact the way outsiders such as ourselves rank the player in question?”
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It depends on what we’re attempting to do. If we’re trying to tell you which 100 minor league players will go on to produce the most WAR during their team-controlled seasons, the answer is yes. If we’re trying to tell you which 100 *could* produce the most, the answer is no.
This is an awesome theoretical discussion to have. It’s PECOTA vs. Baseball America, or something.
Adam Dunn is another good example. At age 19, he was doing very well in the Midwest League, but was well behind where Montero was last year.
Here’s a question. Has there been a player in the last 40 years who hit as well as Montero did last year, taking into account age, level and park/league, who did not succeed in the majors? The last players that I can think of who were ahead of him were Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr.
Montero is, in my view, a very, very good bet to be a 3 WAR player, and has a decent chance to be a 5 WAR player like David Ortiz. This is true whether he is able to continue as a catcher.
“This is true whether he is able to continue as a catcher.”
What can this possibly mean? If you’re saying he can still be a 5 WAR player as a DH, I don’t necessarily disagree, but I doubt he can sustain it for his team-controlled years (rather than work up to it as a peak).
I agree Montero has historic offensive possibilities. I mentioned Frank Thomas and Miguel Cabrera as the 90th percentile of what could happen.
But we need to stop using phrases like “whether he is able to continue as catcher.” Whether he’s able to is the whole point of the article.
” Has there been a player in the last 40 years who hit as well as Montero did last year, taking into account age, level and park/league, who did not succeed in the majors?”
The last FORTY years? I’ll give an example from the last FIVE years,, Let’s call him player X:
Age 18 in A ball (Both in South Atlantic League)
Montero: 569 PAs .322/.373/.488 with 37/83 BB/K
Player X: 578 PAs .322/.388/.538 with 53/120 BB/K
Age 19 :
Montero. 198 PAs .356/.406/.583 with 14/26 BB/K in A+ (FLO)
181 PAs .317/.370/.539 with 14/21 BB/K in AA (EL)
Player X: 370 PAs .336/.386/.582 with 25/66 BB/k in AA (SOUL)
234 PAs .285/.303/.447 with 4/33 BB/K in AAA (IL)
Although, putting similar numbers in terms of OPS and rates in terms of BB% and K%, player X was actually MORE advanced in terms of age than J. Montero and obviously highly ranked in BA lists, also he could field his position.
His name? Delmon Young. Now, is DY a very, very good bet for a 3 WAR player? I don’t think so.
Player X has a much, much, higher K rate. That does not usually project all that well into major leagues.
I just had this discussion the other day wondering why he was ranked as high as he is when his value takes a massive dip with a very uncertain ability to stick behind the plate, but BA loves tools and ceilings.
However, as Mike said ranking him based on where he will play for the Yankees isn’t entirely correct. Doing so IS entirely correct for projecting out his value to the organization as you did above, but that is different than a prospect ranking. If he could move to 1B or catch more for most teams his ranking has to reflect that.
Montero is indisputably less valuable as a DH than C, but IF he would be capable of playing 1B instead of C then his ranking should reflect 1B and not DH. Again, his value to the Yankees should reflect not having 1B as an option, but his ranking should reflect an ability to play 1B.
I agree wit the general conclusion that he is ranked quite high given his positional uncertainty, I just disagree with how far we should go with his downside from a prospects ranking perspective. I was going to comment on trading him making more sense but you already typed that.
Yes, you get it. It’s about trade value vs. organziational value.
I think it’s a mistake to attribute the entire positional adjustment to Jesus Montero, when part of Teixiera’s value can justifiably be brought down since he may be blocking an otherwise valuable player.
To say Jesus Montero is overrated as a prospect for that, I believe, is incorrect. You should observe prospects in a vacuum and, in a vacuum, Montero is nowhere close to being overrated.
And even if his WAR probability distribution centers around a lower figure than we think right now, there’s no question that the upper quartile of that distribution is astronomical; when you consider the point of the game is to win the World Series and that the astronomical distribution should be weighted heavier because of its increased leverage, I really see Montero as still somewhat underrated.
This is a great response, well thought out and sound. Which, of course, is not to say I agree with it all.
To your last point I agree — considering his 90th percentile is Hall of Famer, he’s a deservedly very highly ranked prospect.
But why should we observe prospects in a vacuum? Much of any thinking behind Montero being a underrated talent would necessitate he become a plus defensive 1B. The chance that he gets that opportunity is very low. It’s almost zero with the Yankees, and considering his value with the bat, there isn’t a big chance he gets that opportunity (pre-FA) anywhere else.
Prospects shouldn’t be observed in a vacuum, but should be observed in their value on the open market. A team trading for Montero should see that with the Yankees, he stands to be a 3-5 WAR player, but with them, he could be a 4-6 WAR player. This represents a nice opportunity for an opposing GM to try and get Montero for a talent of about 3.5-4 WAR. Does that make sense?
“Does that make sense?”
No. It only makes sense if you view those trade negotiations in a vaccum from the rest of the league. The team acquiring Montero not only has to provide 3.5-4 WAR worth of trade value of the Yankees, but they also have to include enough value to be superior to any offers from other teams. His value to the Yankees as a DH is irrelevant if the market values him as a 1b. The gap between his value as a DH and 1b is the reason the Yankees would consider a trade, but not a reason why any specific team would get a discount. The only way this would be change would be if the Yankees were specifically trying to acquire a certain player and were doing so in a time crunch. This could limit the impact of the market.
“The team acquiring Montero not only has to provide 3.5-4 WAR worth of trade value of the Yankees, but they also have to include enough value to be superior to any offers from other teams.”
But that’s not true: what the Yankees will receive in trade for a prospect who’s blocked by another player in the organization is less than what the player would command otherwise. Every other team is well aware of why the Yankees (or any seller) is willing to part with a prospect and will factor it into what they offer. Is there a chance one team will still make an over-the-top offer? Sure, but it’s a lot less likely.
It could make sense if the market was oversaturated with 1B and DH eligible players, giving other teams the same “issue” that the Yankees have…and if the Yankees weren’t a team that fielded elite talent.
The Pirates would have much more incentive to deal a player like Montero for the offchance that the players they get back combine to surpass Montero’s production. The Yankees have the luxury of always fielding a team of elite talent all over the field; ‘spreading the wealth’, so to speak, makes little sense in their model.
A Montero trade, for the Yankees, is only really possible if Romine continues to develop, Montero doesn’t develop into a reasonable catcher or 1B, AND they can find a trade partner that will give them an equivalent prospect at another position. I find it extremely unlikely.
Quote from Tom: “Every other team is well aware of why the Yankees (or any seller) is willing to part with a prospect and will factor it into what they offer.”
For the initial offer? Sure, they’ll factor it in. But if you’re told thats not good enough, because another team has made a better offer, you’re going to counter. You’re not going to leave value on the table. His value to the Yankees is mostly irrelvant to someone like the Mariners. The Mariners don’t have to improve their team more than the Yankees improve their team for it to be a good trade for the Mariners. The Mariners just have to improve thiri team (on the field, financially, ect) for it to be a success.
Of course they can try the “You HAVE to trade this guy, so we’re not increasing our offer” stance as a negotiating ploy, but that generally only works if there’s only one serious suitor and you think the Yankees are bluffing about having better offers. Besides, the Yankees can just sit on Montero as a 3.5-4 war DH if thats all your willing to provide them with, Every bit of leverage you’ve stated the acquiring team has becasue they know he’s blocked on the Yankees, the Yankees have with every team in major league baseball where they know he would not be blocked.
This trade discussion, which I wrongly got us started on, is sort of veering us away from the point at hand. Which is this: if we assume Montero becomes a full-time Major League player, then he will do so in one of two factions during his team-controlled seasons:
1. As a Yankee
2. As a member of the team the Yankees trade him to.
Considering his immense talent, I’m going to guess it comes as a Yankee. But better players have been traded, so we can’t rule #2 out.
If he stays a Yankee, we have these possible outcomes:
1. The team decides to take the defensive hit and let Montero play 100-120 games a year behind the plate.
2. The team uses Montero as a back-up catcher and the prominent DH.
3. The team uses him exclusively at DH.
4. He plays outfield.
If he moves on to a new team, we have all those outcomes, plus:
5. He plays first base.
Personally, I would put the likelihood of these events at something like 10/30/50/10/10. I think his ranking in most circles is not taking into account the massive likelihood that he becomes a DH, and thus, the massive hit this will bring his WAR.
I don’t know the positional adjustments off hand, but if we took the 10/30/50/10/10 scenario split you suggested, and estimated an expected WAR, I wonder what that would look like? Estimating the defensive hit at catcher and his value defensively at first base would be difficult I suppose. Maybe there’s enough value added that even just a 10% chance of sticking as a full time catcher, 30% as a backup catcher/ rest of the time DH, 10% OF, and 10% 1b to make it worth while. Thats a 60% chance he’s not a fulltime DH.
Quick note: That added up to 110%, but you get the idea.
Dave: I think this is where these analysis pieces of mine are headed.
I’m going to say there’s a 10% chance that Montero plays 120 games a year at catcher, and the rest as a pinch hitter/DH. This will mean his positional adjustment will be +8.2. We’ll call Montero -10 defensively at catcher, so he’s -1.8+20 (replacement)+25 (offense) = 4.3 WAR.
I’m going to say there’s a 30% chance that we see the back-up catcher, DH split, which should mean a positional adjustment of -2.5. Then we say he’s a minus-5 defender, so we’re at -7.5+20+25= 3.75 WAR.
I’m going to say there’s a 45% chance of what I outlined today, which suggests 3.0 WAR.
I’m going to say there’s a 5% chance he plays in the outfield. Let’s say he follows Kyle Blanks, and is -10 UZR/150 in the outfield. So then you have about the same thing as DH. -8-7+25+20 = 3.0 WAR.
At first base, let’s do Montero a favor, and call him +2.5 at the position. This is a 10% chance, and we’ll say it’s -10+25+20 = 3.5 WAR.
Average all these together given the percents, and I think Montero’s median outcome in his team-controlled seasons is 3.4 WAR.
Bryan,
Have you seen Jorge Posada play catcher? If they can take that defensive hit, Yankees can certainly take a defensive hit with Montero.
Here’s another touchstone. Joe Mauer. As of age 19, Mauer was obviously considerably ahead of Montero defensively and behind him offensively. Mauer’s last 5 seasons according to WAR are worth 3.5, 6.0, 2.9, 5.8, 8.1. You’d have to consider that Mauer developed at or near the 90th percentile for expectations, and he’s averaged just over 5 WAR.
The way I figure it, Joe Mauer at age 19 had about the same chance of developing into the Joe Mauer we have seen, as Montero does of developing into an Ortiz/Thomas/Cabrera hitting monster.
“Prospects shouldn’t be observed in a vacuum, but should be observed in their value on the open market. A team trading for Montero should see that with the Yankees, he stands to be a 3-5 WAR player, but with them, he could be a 4-6 WAR player. This represents a nice opportunity for an opposing GM to try and get Montero for a talent of about 3.5-4 WAR. Does that make sense?”
EXCEPT i dont think cashman will value montero as a 3.5-4 player if montero is being traded…cash is smart enough to recognize the market value he has and get that value in trade. (er, the inverse of what you just said through cashman’s eyes if that makes sense) i think what you wrote truly exemplifies what a great prospect he is–he’s a cheap, cost-controlled, 3+ war player who is instantly worth even more as long as he doesnt suck horribly behind the plate for 50 appearances a year.
many believe jorge’s defense is less than stellar, and some have gone even further saying he has a ‘damon-type’ arm…i wont go that far, but is there a chance that the NY fans may even be used to a less than awesome defender behind the plate?
as arod, tex and jorgie all age, montero could easily rack up PA’s as a dh, catcher, 1b. when/if romine can take over C full time, montero may get nearly the same number of PA’s, but now competing with jorgie for dh time.
1) reduced behind the plate time for montero may make his knees–and productivity–last longer. same for romine since he’ll have a decent backup.
2) what an awesome problem!
“i think what you wrote truly exemplifies what a great prospect he is–he’s a cheap, cost-controlled, 3+ war player who is instantly worth even more as long as he doesnt suck horribly behind the plate for 50 appearances a year.”
I agree with this. We just don’t know yet what that means in the context of all the other prospects.
#wehopetointhefuture
/Twitter’d
it doesnt have to be in the context of the other prospects–that isnt relative, its absolute. does he have 2 passed balls and 8/8 steals a game? then he stinks!
can he call a good enough game for burnett and only have the one wild pitch with no men on base? even if he gives up 1 or 2 steals there, nobody will care because of his 3 run HR in the 8th. seriously, we dont need molina-esque snap throws behind LH batters for outs or keeping them from scoring from first on a double due to a lack of a lead…we just need him not to suck, and i dont think we have to compare him to any other prospect for that part (WAR isn’t prospect specific).
War gets harder when its not replacement but Romine…
/msm’d
/lateinningrunscountmorethanearly
/more msm’d
Montero quickly becomes one of the games most overrated prospects if he’s moved from behind the plate? Are you kidding me? Montero could go pitch up a tint in right field and still be considered a top 5 prospect in baseball because of his bat. Jim Callis of Baseball America didn’t say he would take Montero’s bat over Jason Heyward’s for no reason. It is special regardless of what position he plays. Bad article.
Bryan,
I like the WAR discussion, and the impact of Montero if he can remain behind the plate. I thought I would offer it up in another context. If Montero stays behind the plate, you can get a player like Nick Johnson to fill DH, with his ~0.360 wOBA. If Montero has to take the DH position, for the money you could have used to get Nick Johnson, you end up with Bengie Molina and his ~0.259 wOBA. That is a BIG difference. The free agent catcher market, given the short life span of catchers, is not a fun place to be. It might explain why the Yankees are targeting catchers for their farm system.
And reading through the comments, Mike Green makes an excellent point that Butler spend his A+ ball in the CAL, which basically means anyone making any comparisons between a guys FSL stats and CAL stats is stretching to make a comparison. There is a reason Jon Gaston was not on BA’s top 100 list this year despite crushing 35 home runs in the CAL at a relatively age appropriate level. And no, looking predominately at offensive statistics is not antiquated. Sure, catcher is a premium position, but Jason Heyward plays an outfield role and he was named the #1 prospect in baseball. Sorry, offense makes a prospect. That’s just how it goes.
“Sorry, offense makes a prospect. That’s just how it goes.”
Tyler, this type of thinking isn’t going to contribute much to this discussion. Please read about WAR — the best valuation system I’ve seen — before you begin to criticize the article.
Many in here have disagreed with me and pushed the conversation forward. This is pushing it backward.
Bryan, your 4:57 post is a good one. My point in a previous thread about weighted averages vs. median is relevant though. Montero’s chance of being a 3 WAR player is probably the best of any prospect in baseball, save for Heyward. His upside is Frank Thomas. If you calculated his weighted average as a DH, it would likely be higher than that of other position players, again save for Heyward.
Most top prospects come with a significant bust percentage. Montero’s is lower than almost anyone’s because of the breadth of his offensive skills.
This really speaks to the importance of looking at a broad range of probabilities for every prospect. Just one number is narrow slice of reality and with loose enough assumptions you can make two very different things appear remarkably similar.
Let’s look at some hypothetical success probabilities for Montero and Romine at 5 different levels – 0 WAR/yr (complete bust) and on up to 4+ WAR/yr (low level star production). Montero and Romine might look something like this: (Montero, Romine)
0 WAR: 0%, 50%
1 WAR: 10%, 20%
2 WAR: 30%, 20%
3 WAR: 30%, 10%
4+ WAR: 30%, 0%
Again those are hypotheticals that serve my point, but I do think they’re pretty reasonable.
Bryan laid out the numbers for Montero and Romine to be 3 WAR/yr players. I agree that those futures are both possible. But for Romine that’s probably him playing to his 90% projection. For Montero that might be much closer to his 50% projection.
Sure there’s a point in both player’s career where their production lines cross, but the full range of possibilities for both players is dramatically different.
If the BP PECOTA cards weren’t completely broken, I’d say you could easily find an average player who has a 90% projection that is as good as a very good player’s 50% projection. I don’t think that tells us that we have to radically reconsider our valuation of the very good player. We just need to be aware of the full risk profile and not just any one point.
As many have mentioned recently, the comparison of the CAL/TEX league numbers of Butler to Montero’s FSL/EAST league numbers is rather weak. The FSL is routinely the most difficult league to produce in and Montero’s numbers there were enormous… surpassing those of Miguel Cabrera for instance. Another interesting issue is Montero’s splits as a DH so far in his minor league career (yes, I realize it’s a SSS). In the FSL, his OPS was around 1.200 as a DH.
Considering his offensive production and age, it’s going a bit far to call Montero an overrated prospect, let alone one of the “most overrated”.
Yeah, I noticed his splits at DH vs C too and got a bit nervous but I’ve since decided to just wait it out some more and see how things turn out. If Mike Piazza and Jorge Posada can play C and Adam Dunn can play in the outfield then Jesus Montero can find something to do besides DH.
Montero was throwing out ~30% of basestealers in AA. Unless his footwork is completely worthless, he should be able to maintain or improve on that given that the ability to hold people on improves as you get closer to and into MLB. It looks like he might need a day at DH when Burnett pitches but otherwise, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be able to catch until his age 27 season.
Minor league caught stealing percentages are often completely useless, as almost no pitcher is concerned about holding runners. That’s typically the last thing a pitcher learns, and many learn about it in the major leagues.
If Montero can catch well enough to be a team’s backup catcher, and can DH the rest of the games, you have to factor in roster construction into the argument. No longer do you have to carry a (often) completely useless hitter on the roster simply because he can play catcher, leaving room for a more valuable player.
what was JD’s UZR and WAR last year? aren’t we assuming he’s at least as good as Damon in both fielding and hitting? and yes, i use ‘good’ as loosely as can be expected…if he’s Johnny Damon at much much less expense with MUCH less of a dropoff risk, and can also be a backup or 3rd catcher, doesnt that still make him an awesome prospect??
PS: JD’s 09 UZR -9.2, WAR 3.1 salary 13.1M
Am I missing something, or does WAR not account for catcher UZR?
isn’t that a big problem with WAR in general? C might have the largest variation between the best and worst defenders and it doesn’t count toward UZR? they also get the most chances on the diamond (when counting for possible WPs/PBs).
also, would catching prevent Montero from playing as often as he could as a DH? probably, not only in total years but in games/year. is 17 years of 150+ games at DH (with quite possibly better hitting) worse than 12 years at 120 games/year as a C (with slightly less offense)?
Nicely written article. But what’s up with A-rod messing around. He needs to get his thing straight and win another chamipionship.
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