It’s been almost a year since the Minnesota Twins traded ace Johan Santana to the New York Mets for a collection of prospects. The trade probably hasn’t gone as well as the Twins had hoped it would go. Only one prospect, out of four, has had any kind of impact in Minnesota: Carlos Gomez. The 23-year-old outfielder hit .258/.296/.360 with 33 stolen bases in 153 games in 2008.

Beyond Gomez’ contribution, though, the Twins organization has received less-than-expected results from Deolis Guerra and Phil Humber, while Kevin Mulvey showed modest improvements. Guerra was the key prospect in the deal and had an encouraging season in High-A ball in 2007 at the age of 19 for the Mets. He repeated that same level in 2008 and regressed by posting a 5.47 ERA and allowing 138 hits in 130 innings. His command and control also collapsed and he allowed 71 walks and 71 strikeouts. The right-hander’s stuff also lacked its former life. Guerra will likely be back in High-A ball for a third shot in 2009.

Both Humber and Mulvey were advanced pitching prospects and were expected to contribute significantly at the Major League level in 2008. Humber, though, regressed like Guerra. After allowing 129 hits in 139 Triple-A innings in 2007, he allowed 145 hits in 136.1 innings at the same level. His ERA rose from 4.27 to 4.56 and his K/BB ratio dropped from 2.73 to 2.16. On the plus side, Humber improved each month in 2008 after a rough first two months of the year. The right-hander is 26 entering 2009 and has no clear opportunity with the Twins in 2009 unless he makes a move to the bullpen.

Mulvey, 23, appears to have the most present potential of the three pitching prospects at this point. He spent 2007 in Double-A and allowed 145 hits in 151.2 innings with rates of 2.55 BB/9 and 6.53 K/9. The right-hander spent 2008 in Triple-A and allowed 152 hits in 148 innings of work. Mulvey posted rates of 2.92 BB/9 and 7.26 K/9. Barring injuries, the pitching depth in Minnesota will likely keep the right-hander in Triple-A for a second straight season but youth is on his side. The CHONE projection system predicts a 5.21 ERA for Mulvey in 2009, with 130 hits allowed in 114 innings and rates of 3.47 BB/9 and 6.00 K/9.

When you have to trade the best pitcher in baseball, it’s hard to outright win the deal. Although the players obtained from New York have not set the world on fire, Gomez had an encouraging first season in the Majors at a very young age. Guerra is still quite young and has a lot of time to rediscover his stuff, or learn to succeed without it. Humber could provide some innings out of the bullpen in 2009 and Mulvey will be just a phone call away if injuries strike the Minnesota rotation.

The Florida Marlins organization will rely heavily on inexperienced catchers in 2009. The depth at the position is nothing to write home about, either. Matt Treanor, who appeared in 65 games for Florida in 2008 (and spent parts of the past five seasons guiding the pitching staff) was allowed to leave as a free agent. Currently the organization has just two players with more than 50 games of Major League experience – Mike Rabelo (86 games, 278 at-bats) and John Baker (61 games, 197 at-bats). The other catcher on the 40-man roster is B-level prospect Brett Hayes, who has yet to appear in a Major League game.

Rabelo was supposed to see significant playing time in the Majors in 2008 after coming over from the Detroit Tigers in the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis swap. He was generally ineffective and missed time with knee and wrist injuries. Overall in 2008, he hit .202/.256/.294 in 109 at-bats. Already 29 years old, Rabelo has yet to prove he can consistently hit Major League pitching and his defense is not good enough on its own to justify a big league paycheck.

Baker, a former A’s farmhand, benefited from Rabelo’s poor season. The left-handed hitting catcher took full advantage of his first Major League opportunity and hit .299/.392/.447 with an ISO of .147 in 61 games. The 28-year-old was originally selected in the fourth round of the 2002 draft out of the University of California and kicked around the minors for parts of seven seasons. He has the best shot at playing everyday among the three catchers on the 40-man roster.

Hayes, 24, was selected in the second round of the 2005 draft out of the University of Nevada. He has moved through the system relatively quickly despite uninspired minor league numbers, which include a career line of .253/.311/.381 in 1,042 at-bats. He did hit .293/.331/.466 in 2008 during his first taste of Triple-A (116 at-bats). Hayes has a solid reputation as a good defensive backstop, excellent receiver and also displays leadership skills.

The club has also invited three non-roster catchers to spring training in 2009: Kyle Skipworth, Miguel Fermin, and Brad Davis. Skipworth, 18, was the Marlins’ 2008 first round draft pick out of high school and is in camp to gain experience. He will be headed down to A-ball for the 2009 season after hitting just .208 in his debut. Fermin had a breakout 2008 season by hitting .347/.374/.628 with 17 homers in 242 at-bats. However, he was 23 and playing in short-season ball. He also walked just 3.6 percent of the time. Davis, 26, spent last season in Double-A and hit just .205/.306/.345 in 249 at-bats. Other catching prospects Chris Hatcher, Torre Langley, and Jameson Smith all disappointed with the bat.

It’s funny where some teams like to spend money. The Arizona Diamondbacks organization is not able to spend a lot of money in the current economy yet General Manager Josh Byrnes recently brought back aging pinch hitter Tony Clark despite his 2008 line of .225/.359/.318 in 151 at-bats (108 games). His season was split between San Diego and Arizona, which could possibly help to explain his dismal .318 slugging percentage and .093 ISO (But the SLG% only increased from .307 to .333 with the move out of Petco Park).

At 36 years of age, it’s quite possible that Clark will continue to struggle in 2009. His line against right-handed pitchers was just .198/.354/.248, which makes him almost useless against them if this was not simply a one-year fluke. On the plus side, he did hit .273/.468/.477 with runners in scoring position, which is a situation he would face fairly often as a pinch hitter (at least one would hope). When there are no runners on base, though, Clark struck out a almost half of the time (41 times in 92 plate appearances).

Now the $800,000 that Arizona will pay the pinch hitter this season is not a ton of money in the grand scheme of things, but these moves do add up, especially for a club that does not have a ton of wiggle room in the budget. What makes matters worse is that the organization has some in-house talent that could possibly provide the same production – if not more – for half the salary.

Josh Whitesell has been around. He was originally selected by the Montreal Expos in the sixth round of the 2003 draft out of Loyola Marymount University. Despite solid minor league numbers, Whitesell moved slowly – one level at a time – and eventually was deemed expendable by the now Washington Nationals. Arizona gladly scooped him up prior to the 2008 season and the left-handed hitting first baseman had a nice season in Triple-A with a line of 328/.425/.568 with an ISO of .240 in 475 at-bats. He also posted rates of 13.5 BB% and 28.6 K%. The 26 year old earned a brief MLB stint with two hits in seven at-bats (and seven games). In those seven games, Whitesell walked one, struck out twice and slammed a solo home run.

He’s definitely earned a shot at a regular roster spot. Whitesell is cheaper than Clark, has more upside and creamed right-handed pitchers in 2008 at Triple-A to the tune of .342/.442/.602 in 342 at-bats. Admittedly, it is hard to know how a young player will adjust to a part-time role – and a high-pressured one at that. Whitesell, though, did well in 2008 with runners in scoring position by hitting .331/.438/.586. Truth be told, there are not many – if any – unimpressive numbers in Whitesell’s statistics from 2008. He deserves a shot, and Arizona could certainly benefit from replacing Clark with the youngster and allowing Whitesell to get his feet wet as a pinch hitter while also playing regularly at first base against right-handed pitching.

As mentioned in yesterday’s article about Rich Hill, the Chicago Cubs organization is facing tough decisions on young players who are all out of minor league options. The club has already sold low on outfield prospect Felix Pie, who was dispatched to Baltimore for a No. 4 or 5 starter and a minor league pitcher. Infielder Ronny Cedeno is another player that is currently on the bubble, and he could very well find himself traded before April 5.

Due to the club’s lack of depth in other areas on the big league roster, any trade would probably have to bring back minor league talent, which would help the somewhat barren system. If the Cubs cannot find suitable trading partners for Cedeno, or for Hill, the organization may want to find a way to work the players onto the 25-man roster. Pie had the greatest trade value of the three players and the organization could only get Garrett Olson back for him.

Cedeno has the chance to be at least an average Major League starting middle infielder. He wowed a lot of people at shortstop while coming up through the minors but has not been quite as consistent at the Major League level and his range has been hampered at times. Cedeno, 26, spent a fair bit of time at second base in 2008 and looked solid, making only two errors in 273 innings.

Offensively, Cedeno is still a work in progress. He spent the majority of 2006 as the Cubs’ starting shortstop but hit just .245/.271/.339 with an ISO of .094 in 534 at-bats. Cedeno then spent the majority of the 2007 season in Triple-A where he hit .359/.422/.537 in 75 games.

In 2008, Cedeno had a chance to play a number of positions for the Cubs and showed improvements with the bat over the 2006 season by posting a line of .269/.328/.352 with an ISO of .083. Now obviously those numbers do not set the world on fire, but Cedeno showed the ability to make adjustments and improvements while also not playing every day, which can be tough for a young player.

Cedeno’s walk rate improved significantly between 2006 and 2008 and more than doubled from 3.1 to 7.7 BB%. His strikeout rate held close from 20.4 to 19.0 K%, which is still a little high for a player of his skill set (ie. zero power). Cedeno also does not show an aptitude for stealing bases, having stolen just 15 in 25 attempts in 329 MLB games.

Both the Bill James and CHONE projection systems feel Cedeno is going to show more improvements in 2009 by hitting .277/.324/.393 and .281/.332/.412, respectively. Marcel, meanwhile, sees the Venezuelan taking a small step backward.

There are a number of clubs that could benefit from a middle infielder that possesses some potential upside with the bat, as well as solid defence. Teams that could use Cedeno at shortstop include the Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics, Cleveland Indians, and San Diego Padres.

Here is a comparison, offensively, of some of the players being considered for starting gigs by the teams listed above – all of whom are at least two years older than Cedeno.

.269/.328/.352 | $0.8 M | Ronny Cedeno (Chicago NL)
.267/.332/.356 | $1.1 M | Marco Scutaro (Toronto)
.265/.289/.429 | $1.3 M | Wilson Betemit (Chicago AL)
.284/.344/.382 | $4.0 M | Nick Punto (Minnesota)
.237/.296/.349 | $5.3 M | Bobby Crosby (Oakland)
.265/.343/.349 | $0.9 M | David Eckstein (San Diego)

How out-of-whack do the Punto and Crosby 2009 salaries look? Those teams could certainly benefit by taking a flyer on Cedeno, who has the chance to surpass each and every one of them offensively. He’s probably already a better fielder than any of those Major Leaguers- and he’s also the least expensive player on the list.

The Chicago Cubs organization will have two young players on the bubble when spring training rolls around in February. Pitcher Rich Hill, and infielder Ronny Cedeno are currently on the outside looking in when it comes to 25-man roster spots.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, both players are also out of minor league options, which means the club has three options: 1) Keep them on the 25-man roster; 2) Trade them for other talent; 3) Expose them to waivers in an attempt to send them down to the minors. If the club chooses the third option, each player would definitely end up in other organizations with zero compensation, which really leaves the club with two options: Play or trade.

Hill, 28, had a breakout 2007 season and allowed just 170 hits in 195 innings of work. He posted rates of 2.91 BB/9 and 8.45 K/9. The southpaw’s control was solid all season long, although he did walk seven batters in 11 innings over his final two starts of the season (When he also threw more pitches in back-to-back games – 219 – than he did all season).

In 2008, Hill made just five starts and did not walk fewer than three batters in any one game. In those games, he allowed just 13 hits in 19.2 innings and managed 15 strikeouts, but he walked 18 batters. The final straw came on May 2 against St. Louis when Hill went just two-thirds of an inning and allowed no hits but walked four batters.

Interestingly, his first three pitches of that game – to lead-off batter Brian Barton – were three solid strikes: fastball (looking), curveball (looking), fastball (swinging).

Next up (ironically, perhaps) was Rick Ankiel, who took four straight balls on a curveball and three fastballs. The next batter was Albert Pujols, who fouled off the first pitch and then looked at three straight balls (although Gameday shows pitch three was a pretty clear strike on a curve). Hill then received a strike call before walking Pujols on the six pitch of the at-bat.

The pitching coach visited Hill on the mound prior to Troy Glaus stepping up to the plate. When play resumed, Hill buried a curveball in the dirt. Glaus then eagerly popped up the next fastball, which would have been a borderline strike at the knees. Ditching the curveball, Hill then went after Ryan Ludwick with five straight fastballs, four of which missed the strike zone by a wide margin.

Yadier Molina then faced seven straight fastballs with the first three coming in as balls, although the first two were borderline strikes: over the plate and at the knees. The third missed way up. The next two pitches were called strikes, although they were worse than the first two that were called balls. Molina than fouled off a high fastball before Hill buried the final one in the dirt, signaling the end to his night – and season in the Majors.

The Cubs sent Hill to the minors after that game but the control did not improve. In three High-A ball games his walk rate was 8.03 BB/9 and in seven Triple-A games the rate was 9.69 BB/9. Hill continued pitching in the off-season in the Venezuelan Winter League and walked 23 batters in 21 innings.

Any trade of Hill at this point would definitely be selling low on the left-hander. But the sad truth is that this past season looked a lot like the tail end of Ankiel’s pitching career, and Hill does not have the option to pursue a second career as a hitter. More time in the minors probably won’t fix Hill’s problem, if it is indeed the dreaded Steve Blass disease. But he certainly is not going to be effective on a Major League mound while facing the best hitters on the planet with limited command and control of his pitches. It appears to be a no-win situation.

On Tuesday, I will look at Cedeno. Outfielder Felix Pie was originally part of this series before his trade to Baltimore, which hit the press on Sunday.

The New York Yankees organization has had quite a successful off-season with the signings of free agent hurlers A.J. Burnett, and C.C. Sabathia, as well as first baseman Mark Teixeira. The club also added six minor league pitchers to the 40-man roster but none of them fall among the Yankees’ best prospects.

In fact, it’s a bit of a low period for the organization in terms of impact pitching prospects now that the eligibility has expired for players such as Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Hughes – all of whom have had varying degrees of success. That’s not to say the organization lacks pitching depth; there’s a lot of it but there are no sure-fire future stars (Not that the above three succeeded as scripted). It also doesn’t mean that the players added to the roster this off-season won’t have an impact. No one expected Dan Giese, Jose Veras, or Alfredo Aceves to have any kind of Major League success. The Yankees organization always seems to squeeze talent out of the most unlikely of sources.

Christian Garcia was drafted in the third round of the 2004 draft out of high school but injuries have taken a toll on his promising career. He missed all of 2007 after elbow surgery, but by all reports he still has his promising stuff, which includes a fastball that tops out around 95 mph, a wicked curveball and an improving change-up. Garcia spent most of the 2008 season in High-A ball and earned a one-game promotion to Double-A, where he walked six batters in 5.1 innings. In High-A, he allowed 45 hits in 49.2 innings with rates of 3.08 BB/9 and 10.87 K/9. The right-hander also allowed just two home runs.

Wilkins de la Rosa is a converted outfielder with power from the left side. After beginning the season in A-ball, and pitching mostly out of the bullpen, he ended the year with three solid starts in High-A ball. At the lower level, de la Rosa allowed just 60 hits in 90 innings and posted rates of 3.89 BB/9 and 10.96 K/9 with two home runs allowed. At this point, he is mostly a one-pitch thrower with a mid-90s fastball, but the southpaw is also working on both a curveball and a change-up. He’ll be 24 and in High-A ball when the season starts so time is against him to a degree.

Eric Hacker falls in the realm of ‘great results but lacks great stuff.’ Like Garcia, Hacker’s career has also been sidetracked by both elbow and shoulder surgeries, after originally being drafted out of high school in 2002. Those surgeries have taken a toll on his stuff and the right-hander now relies on command/control and the ground ball (58 GB% in High-A). Beginning the 2008 season in High-A ball, Hacker allowed 38 hits in 53 innings. He also posted rates of 1.53 BB/9 and 5.26 K/9, with just one home run allowed. Upon his promotion to Double-A, Hacker allowed 83 hits in 91 innings of work. He continued to show good control by posting a rate of 2.76 BB/9, along with 8.28 K/9.

The remaining three hurlers added to the 40-man roster include Michael Dunn, Anthony Claggett, and Steven Jackson. Dunn was a 33rd-round draft pick and, like de la Rosa, began his career as a hitter. He spent most of 2008 in High-A ball and allowed 124 hits in 124.2 innings. Claggett was acquired from Detroit in the Gary Sheffield trade during the 2006-07 off-season. The 24-year-old reliever posted rate of 4.60 BB/9 and 8.44 K/9 in Double-A in 2008. Jackson was acquired in the Randy Johnson trade with Arizona in the winter of 2006-07. Last season, Jackson, 26, split the season between Double-A and Triple-A, where he allowed 44 hits in 48.1 innings and posted a strikeout rate of 10.06 K/9.

Brandon Erbe, Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz get a lot of attention in the Baltimore Orioles system, but David Hernandez could beat them all to the big leagues. The 23-year-old, right-handed hurler was recently added to the club’s 40-man roster and he could claim one of Baltimore’s vacant starting rotation slots sooner rather than later. In 2008, Hernandez spent the year in Double-A and allowed 112 hits in 141 innings of work. He posted rates of 4.53 BB/9 and 10.60 K/9, while also keeping the ball in the park by allowing just 10 home runs (0.64 HR/9). Obviously the control needs to improve if he is going to have long-term success in the big leagues, but the potential is there once things click. He features a repertoire that includes an 89-93 mph fastball, a curveball and a change-up.

Right-handed Chorye Spoone was on a similar path before shoulder surgery ended his 2008 season after just nine starts. He will miss the majority of 2009 as well, but that did not stop Baltimore from protecting him on the 40-man roster. When healthy, Spoone features a 91-95 mph fastball, plus curveball and change-up.

Brad Bergesen’s 2008 numbers at Double-A look better than Hernandez’ on the surface with a record of 15-6 and an ERA of 3.22. His walk rate was also a nifty 1.64 BB/9 but his strikeout rate was troublesome at 4.38 K/9. Despite not striking out a lot of batters, the right-hander allowed just 143 hits in 148 innings. Bergesen can dial his fastball up to 93-95 mph but he commands it better in the low 90s. He also has a slider and change-up.

Wilfredo Perez (or Wilfrido, depending on whom you speak with) is a left-handed reliever who split the 2008 season between High-A ball and Double-A. The 24-year-old fanned 92 batters in 79.2 combined innings. Like the pitchers above, though, Perez struggled with his control and posted walk rates of 4.79 at High-A and 3.09 at Double-A. After beginning his career by being very good against left-handed hitters, the southpaw has actually had more success against righties in the past two seasons (.244 versus .165 in 2007, .253 versus .192 in 2008).

The only non-pitcher added to the 40-man roster this off-season was outfielder Nolan Reimold, a former second round draft pick out of Bowling Green University. His prospect stock has been up and down since he signed in 2005 but he rebounded in 2008 at Double-A. He hit .284/.367/.501 with an ISO of .217 in 507 at-bats. The 25-year-old has big-time power but it remains to be seen how well he’ll hit for average against Major League pitching. In his career, Reimold’s slugging percentage is almost 100 points higher against southpaws (.572 versus .482).

The Minnesota Twins organization was one of the busiest clubs when it came time to protect prospects on the 40-man rosters near the beginning of the off-season. The club added three pitchers, two catchers and four infielders.

Anthony Swarzak is the most promising out of the trio of hurlers added to the roster. His repertoire includes an 89-93 mph fastball, a plus curveball and a change-up. The former high school second-round draft pick is on the cusp of joining the Twins’ big league rotations despite having a rough year in Double-A. After making 15 appearances at that level in 2007, the right-hander was asked to start back there in 2008. Swarzak’s FIP went from 3.32 to 4.42 and his rates took a hit too from 2.40 BB/9 and 7.92 K/9 in 2007 to 3.28 BB/9 and 6.73 K/9 in 2008. Perhaps there was a lack of motivation because his numbers improved (on the surface) when he joined Triple-A late in the season. In seven starts, he allowed 41 hits in 45 innings of work and posted rates of 2.80 BB/9 and 5.20 K/9. However, there are some signs that his success at Triple-A was luck-induced. His ERA was 1.70, but his FIP was 4.40. His K/BB ratio has also reduced in each of his last four assignments: 3.60 to 3.30 to 2.05 to 1.86.

Brian Duensing, a former third-round pick out of the University of Nebraska, has seen his strikeout rate drop off dramatically as he approaches the Major League level. In his first full season in 2006, Duensing posted an OK rate of 7.00 K/9 in A-ball, only to see it settle in around 5.0 K/9 after a full season in Triple-A in 2008 (He also spent much of 2007 there with better results). The left-handed was quite hittable in 2008 and he allowed 150 hits in 138.2 innings. Duensing, 25, has excellent control as witnessed by his rate of 2.21 BB/9. He works in the upper 80s with his fastball and complements that with a good change-up and a couple of breaking balls.

Catcher Wilson Ramos is one of the club’s better hitting prospects and could eventually give the Twins an excuse to move Joe Mauer from behind the plate. The right-handed hitter spent the 2008 season in High-A ball and hit .288/.346/.434 with an ISO of .146. Like many Twins prospects, he could stand to show more patience after posting a walk rate of 7.6% last season. Defensively, Ramos, 21, threw out 32 of 74 (43%) base runners attempting to steal.

Offensively, Luke Hughes has the most present potential of the four infielders. He split 2008 between Double-A and Triple-A. At the lower level, he hit .319/.385/.551 with an ISO of .232 in 285 at-bats. At Triple-A, he hit .283/.325/.453 with an ISO of .170 in 106 at-bats. His walk and strikeout rates in Triple-A were 6.2 BB% and 28.3 K%. Defensively, Hughes has appeared all over the diamond after playing himself off second base. He spent the majority of his time at third base in 2008 but had a poor fielding percentage (.888 at Double-A) and showed below-average range.

Of the remaining infielders, Steven Tolleson is the safest bet to secure a Major League utility infielder’s role. The 25-year-old batter hit .300/.382/.466 with 12 stolen bases at Double-A in 2008. Trevor Plouffe is a former first-round pick whose numbers have never matched his potential. He spent the 2008 season split between Double-A and Triple-A. His career line is an uninspiring .255/.319/.380.

Aside from the J.J. Putz trade, the Seattle Mariners organization has had a fairly quiet off-season despite its disappointing 2008 season and 61-101 finish. Haunted and hindered by some poor contracts (Miguel Batista, Carlos Silva, Kenji Johjima), the club has made only minor adjustments to the 40-man roster via free agency with the acquisitions of corner infielder Russell Branyan, and reliever Tyler Walker. The club also selected Rule 5 draft pick Reegie Corona, a middle infielder.

As well, the organization added five prospects to the 40-man roster: pitchers Gaby Hernandez, Stephen Kahn, Marwin Vega, as well as outfielders Michael Wilson and Greg Halman.

Hernandez was originally selected out of a Miami high school in the third round of the 2004 amateur draft by the New York Mets. He was then traded to the Florida Marlins for veteran catcher Paul LoDuca in December of 2005. In July of 2008, the Marlins shipped Hernandez to Seattle for ancient reliever Arthur Rhodes. The 22-year-old has excellent stuff – including an 88-93 mph fastball, plus curveball and change-up – but his results have been inconsistent. Hernandez began 2008 in Triple-A but was lit up. He allowed 94 hits in 64.2 innings and posted reasonable rates of 3.62 BB/9 and 7.52 K/9. He also allowed 14 home runs (1.95 HR/9). Hernandez was demoted to Double-A where he went 3-0 in four starts with an ERA of 4.30. The trade to Seattle followed and Hernandez was again assigned to Double-A, where he posted a 5.01 ERA in six starts. Overall on the season, he allowed 154 hits in 121.2 innings, with rates of 3.33 BB/9 and 6.95 K/9. Right-handed batters hit .327 against him. He was equally ineffective in the Arizona Fall League with 33 hits allowed in 29.1 innings and an ERA of 7.67.

Kahn was an interesting addition to the 40-man roster after missing all of the last two seasons with ACL tears in both knees. Despite having thrown just 14.1 innings since 2006, he took a valuable roster spot. Those 14.1 innings came in the 2008 Arizona Fall League, where Kahn allowed 18 hits, 10 walks and struck out just nine. There was no need to add the right-handed to the roster considering his terrible command and control – which have always been bad and will definitely not be helped by the time off. Even with a fastball that can touch 95 mph and a good curveball, it’s unlikely that a team would have taken a Rule 5 risk on him, nor would he have survived on a Major League roster for the entire season.

On the plus side, Vega has pitched in both of the last two seasons but, like Kahn, he was added to the roster despite his inability to find the strike zone. His rates from Double-A in 2008 include a 5.77 BB/9 and a 6.55 K/9. That creates a stunning 1.14 K/BB rate. The right-handed reliever allowed 67 hits in 68.2 innings and gave up just three home runs (0.39 HR/9). The Colombian throws 91-93 mph with an average breaking ball and change-up.

Wilson parlayed a breakout 2008 season into a 40-man roster spot. The 25-year-old outfielder posted a line of .276/.388/.549 with an ISO of .273 in Double-A. Some caution must be taken with his numbers, though. He was old for the league and it was his third attempt at the level. At 28.8%, Wilson did a nice job of reducing his strikeout rates from 2007 (42.8%) and 2006 (34.1%). The outfielder has definite flaws and will likely never hit for average at the Major League level, but he would have become a minor league free agent if he had not been added to the roster. This buys the organization a little more time to ensure 2008 was indeed a fluke.

Halman, on the other hand, is an outfielder who is oozing with undeniable potential. The 21-year-old split the season between High-A ball and Double-A and hit 29 home runs and stole 31 bases, making him a 30-30 threat. Like Wilson, though, Halman does not currently project to hit for average after batting .268 in High-A and .277 in Double-A (as well as a career .262 average). To succeed at higher levels, he will also need to take more walks after posting rates of 5.9 BB% and 6.4 BB% this past season. He looks like Mike Cameron without the Gold Glove defence or Chris Young with less patience.

In order to make room for the recent signing of superstar first baseman Mark Teixeira, the New York Yankees organization designated first baseman Shelley Duncan for assignment. Duncan originally burst on to the scene back in 2007 by hitting seven home runs in just 74 at-bats, good for a .297 ISO.

Being a New York ‘prospect,’ Duncan’s value was instantly overstated, especially considering that he was 27 years old and had a career minor league batting average right around .250 in seven seasons. He did have some potential, though, having been a second round draft pick in 2001 out of the University of Arizona. He had also slugged 34 home runs in Double-A in 2005.

At the beginning of spring training in 2008, Yankees manager Joe Girardi was quoted by the New York Daily News as saying Duncan, “will get every chance to win the first base job.” Some New York fans touted Duncan as the next late-blooming star-in-the-making, while others warned of the next Kevin Maas (who set a record as the quickest player to 10 home runs to begin his career: 72 at-bats, but was out of Major League Baseball at the age 30).

The latter group of fans appears to have been correct about Duncan. Although his 2008 season was marred by injuries, it is fairly clear that he is a Quad-A player. After hitting .295/.380/.577 in Triple-A in 2007, Duncan slumped to .239/.365/.483 in 2008. His career MLB line is .221/.299/.435 with rates of 10.3 BB% and 22.8 K% in 131 at-bats.

There is no doubt that Duncan has power; he was one of the best power-hitting players in the NCAA during his college career. But his long swing and questionable plate discipline has haunted him throughout the upper levels of the minors during his pro career.

From here, Duncan would be best off finding a new organization because first base is not going to open up any time soon in New York, with Teixeira having signed an eight-year contract. In fact, he might want to consider joining the growing number of fringe Major Leaguers and Quad-A players jumping over to Japan for the 2009 season.

Unexpected stories and performances, like Duncan’s 2007 MLB season, are part of what makes Major League Baseball so much fun to watch. But it’s important to not get too wrapped up in them when valuing players and their future potentials.