The Arizona Fall League will be getting underway shortly and the annual event will feature some of the top upper-level prospects in the game, including a plethora of sleepers and names you need to know. The Minnesota Twins organization has some of the best minor league pitching depth in the game and the club is sending four pitchers to play for the Phoenix Desert Dogs: Rob Delaney, Tim Lahey, Anthony Slama, and Jeff Manship.

Delaney was signed as a non-drafted free agent out of St. John’s University in 2006. The right-hander was rather hittable in college but has found minor league baseball to be pretty easy the past two seasons. In 2007, he began the year in A-ball and posted a 0.77 ERA in 46.2 games with 26 hits allowed (4.82 H/9), to go along with six walks (1.16 BB/9) and 56 strikeouts (10.80 K/9). He then posted a 1.54 ERA in 23.1 High-A innings. In 2008, Delaney started the year back in High-A before finishing in Double-A. His season stats included a 1.23 ERA in 66 innings with 44 hits allowed, along with 11 walks and 72 strikeouts. Right-handers hit just .113 against him at Double-A. Delaney’s best pitches are a low-90s fastball and a plus slider.

Tim Lahey was almost a Chicago Cub after being taken by the organization in the December 2007 Rule 5 draft. Lahey is the rawest of the four Twins pitchers in the AFL, as he was originally a catcher in pro ball before a conversion to the mound after his first pro season in 2004. Pitching at Triple-A in 2008, Lahey posted a 5.43 ERA in 63 innings and allowed 69 hits and 23 walks. He also struck out 53 batters and induced almost 1.5 ground ball outs per fly ball out. Left-handed batters hit .378 against him. Like Delaney, Lahey features a fastball and slider, but his heater has more sink when it’s on.

Anthony Slama was a 39th round draft pick out of the University of San Diego in 2006 and has come a long way in a short time. The right-hander features an 88-92 mph fastball, slider and plus change-up, which makes minor league hitters look foolish. After a debut season that saw him beat up on hitters in the low minors, Slama made High-A ball hitter look bad in 2008. He posted a 1.01 ERA in 71 innings with 43 hits and 24 walks allowed. He also whiffed 110 batters and induced more than 1.5 ground balls for every fly ball. Right-handers hit just .154 against him.

Jeff Manship is the most well-known of the four pitchers on the prospect landscape. He was a star pitcher at the University of Notre Dame and that got him drafted in the 14th round of the 2006 draft. Manship dominated the low minors and did not seem to have any difficulty with hitters until reaching Double-A midway through the 2008 season. In 76.2 innings, he allowed 90 hits and 24 walks with 62 strikeouts. Right-handers hit .311 against him at Double-A. Manship features a diverse repertoire with two fastballs (he works around 88-91 mph), a curveball, slider and change-up. Of the four pitchers headed to the AFL, he is the most likely to be a big league starter, although he projects as more of an innings-eating fourth starter.

From the Washington Post, March 9, 2005:

Jim Bowden, the general manager of the Washington Nationals, picked up his cell phone earlier this week and punched in the speed dial for Dana Brown, his scouting director. Bowden wanted to discuss Ian Desmond, a shortstop the Nationals brought into big league camp after taking him in the third round of last year’s draft.

“Dana,” Bowden said. “You made a mistake when you drafted Desmond.”

Brown was shocked. “Why?” he asked.

“Because you took him in the third round instead of the first round,” Bowden replied.

…

So, even though Desmond will almost certainly start the year at Class A Savannah, the obvious question arises: If Cristian Guzman, the starting shortstop, was injured, would the Nationals look to Desmond?

“I wouldn’t be afraid to put him out there,” Robinson said.

“I wouldn’t be afraid to bring him to the big leagues to play defense,” Bowden said.

Ultimately, Bowden said, Desmond’s bat will determine how quickly he rises.

* * *
My what a difference four years can make – three if you consider Ian Desmond was considered by Baseball America to be the Nationals’ fourth-best prospect heading into 2006. After being the talk of the town in 2005, Desmond has endured some lean times with the bat. The slick fielder has just finished his first full season at Double-A after spending three years in A-ball despite the glowing remarks in the article snippet above.

During the 2008 season, Desmond hit .251/.318/.406 in 323 at-bats. He walked just 31 times and struck out in 78 at-bats, but Desmond has shown some promising power in the last two seasons and could be a 15-15 man at the Major League level, with above-average defence and a few stolen bases tossed in for good measure.

One area Desmond needs to improve in is his at-bats against right-handed pitchers. His OPS was almost 150 points higher against southpaws. A more patient approach could also help him get into better hitters’ counts… He appeared to be making headway in 2007 when he posted a .357 OBP, but he regressed in Double-A and was closer to his career OBP of .312. As well, Desmond appears to put too much pressure on himself with runners in scoring position and hit just .198.

With incumbent Cristian Guzman resigning with Washington recently through 2010 ($16 million), the Nationals organization essential bought Desmond two more years of development time, which it looks like he’ll need. And unfortunately for Washington, the organization has no other shortstop prospects anywhere near ready to help out. Desmond will continue to work on his bat during the 2008 Arizona Fall League with an eye on 2011.

The 2005 amateur draft was a college-heavy draft in the first round. Twenty of the first 30 picks came from college programs, and only five prep pitchers were chosen in the first 35 selections when also considering the supplemental first round.

Those five pitchers – Chris Volstad, Mark Pawelek, Aaron Thompson, Chaz Roe, and Ryan Tucker – have followed very different career paths in the last three seasons.

Volstad is the most accomplished of the group and currently has 56.1 Major League innings to his credit, all having come this season. He was also the first of the quintet to be drafted at 16th overall by Florida. The sinker-slider specialist spend about three seasons in the minor leagues before making his MLB debut in 2008. In 10 games, he has posted a 3.20 ERA with 53 hits allowed, 26 walks and 37 strikeouts. Low strikeout rates have plagued Volstad throughout his minor league career (6.20 K/9 career), but the 6’8” right-hander gets a good downward plane on the ball and induced two ground ball outs for every fly ball out this season at Double-A. His fastball can reach the mid-90s when he needs it to.

Pawelek is a sad story. Blessed with immense natural talent, the right-hander has rarely been motivated in pro ball and has been disciplined numerous times by the Chicago Cubs organization, which drafted him 20th overall in 2005. Pawelek was most recently sent home early for the season after failing to acquire a passport in a timely manner for a trip to Canada. Despite solid numbers in his first two pro seasons, Pawelek has spent parts of four seasons in short season ball. He may finally be out of chances with the Cubs.

Thompson was the second high school pitcher selected by the Marlins in the top 35 draft choices. He does not possess the same stuff as Volstad, but Thompson was considered more polished coming out of high school and had better command and control. However, he has not advanced quite as quickly as Volstad. The left-handed has struggled this year in Double-A by posting an ERA of 5.62 in 16 starts. He has allowed 111 hits in 81.2 innings to go along with 40 walks and 53 strikeouts. Thompson’s biggest problem is that when he’s off, he’s really off. In his last 10 starts, he has had four games where he has allowed 39 hits and 25 runs in 15.1 innings. He will look to make up for lost time with a stint in the Arizona Fall League.

Chaz Roe was nabbed with the 32nd overall pick by the Colorado Rockies. He has moved at a steady pace and spent most of the season at Double-A despite beginning the year in High-A ball. Like Thompson, Roe will also spend time pitching in the Arizona Fall League. In 16 Double-A starts, the 6’5” righty has allowed 98 hits and 34 walks in 105.1 innings. He has also struck out 70 batters. Like Volstad, Roe has yet to strike out a lot of batters, given his good stuff, but he does induce his fair share of ground balls (1.6 ground ball outs per fly ball outs) at Double-A.

Tucker was Mr. Dead Red coming out of high school. He had an excellent fastball but not a whole lot more. His fastball was good enough to dominate Double-A hitters this year, but not Major Leaguers. At the lower lever, Tucker posted a 1.58 ERA in 91 innings with 37 walks and 74 strikeouts. At the Major League level, Tucker has posted an 8.39 ERA with 42 hits allowed in 34.1 innings, along with 22 walks and 26 strikeouts. Major Leaguers have simply sat on his fastball, which is one of the reasons why some scouts have projected Tucker to be a big league reliever since his prep days.

It’s always fun to watch prospects diverge from a draft class.

Player agent Scott Boras has been in the news a lot lately, with controversy surrounding the legitimacy of the signings of 2008 first round draft picks Pedro Alvarez and Eric Hosmer. You may be asking yourself, for the 15th or 16th time, why teams even bother to deal with Boras clients. Simply put, he represents some of the best talent in professional baseball, including soon-to-be pros.

On of those amateur clients, Julio Borbon, flew under the radar a little bit before the 2007 draft, thanks in part to his allegiance to Boras, as well as a poorly-timed ankle injury that ruined a good portion of his junior season. Despite that, the Texas Rangers still made Borbon a supplemental first round selection (35th overall) out of the University of Tennessee and signed the Dominican Republic native to Major League contract, complete with an $800,000 signing bonus. Only Boras could finagle a Major League contract for a player drafted outside the first round after coming off a poor season.

Borbon signed late in the 2007 season and managed to appear in just nine regular season games. In 37 at-bats, the speedy outfielder hit .189/.250/.216 with just one extra base hit and three stolen bases. Well, the real Borbon stood up this year. He was advanced to High-A ball to begin the season and hit .306/.346/.395 with two homers and 36 stolen bases in 291 at-bats. Borbon was then promoted to Double-A where he proceeded to hit .332/.371/.457 with five homers and 16 stolen bases in 247 at-bats.

The downside to Borbon is that his running game has shown some holes with him getting caught 11 times in 27 attempts at Double-A, but he has still stolen 52 bases on the season. He also has just 27 walks this season, which is far too few for a slash-and-dash, lead-off type hitter. The left-handed hitter is doing OK against southpaws at the Double-A level with a .281 average but his slugging average dips 100 points and he has yet to take a walk in that situation.

Borbon has quietly flown under the radar for more than a year now, but that is surely going to change soon. He could be making good on the Major League contract before you know it… Perhaps even before the Alvarez/Hosmer mess is settled.

Welcome class, to How to Rush a Prospect 101. Your teacher’s name will be Mr. Ricciardi.

The Toronto Blue Jays traded veteran outfielder Matt Stairs to the Philadelphia Phillies yesterday and added top prospect and outfielder Travis Snider to the 25-man roster. Snider, 20, was the club’s No. 1 draft pick in the 2006 draft out of a Washington state high school.

Stairs, 40, really did not belong on the club after inexplicably being given a two-year contract after posting some of his best numbers in years, during the 2007 season. At the time of his signing, Toronto already had aging veteran Frank Thomas at designated hitter and promising youngster Adam Lind growing moss in Triple-A. I can only hope that general manager J.P. Ricciardi can get back a B-level prospect from the Phillies in return for Stairs, but Ricciardi does not have a great track record of picking up good minor league players from other systems.

Snider began the year in High-A Dunedin and was suffering with a bad elbow, which required him to stay off the field and be the club’s designated hitter for more than a month. While in Dunedin, Snider hit .279/.333/.557 in 17 games. He hit four homers and struck out 22 times in 61 at-bats.

In Double-A, Snider hit .262/.357/.461 with 17 homers and 116 strikeouts in 362 at-bats. I personally felt he should have remained in Double-A for the remainder of the season but he was promoted to Triple-A for the month of August. In Syracuse, Snider hit .344/.386/.516 with two homers and 16 strikeouts in 64 at-bats.

Snider’s minor league numbers for the season include a .273 average, 23 homers, 61 walks, and a whopping 154 strikeouts in 487 at-bats. Although talented, it’s clear Snider still has some rough edges when it comes to making consistent contact. I am a little worried that Snider’s rapid ascent through the system is related to the general manager’s desire to justify his track record with player development, given the organization’s continued disappointments under his watch.

With manager John Gibbons having felt the ax earlier in the season, Ricciardi is certainly headed for a review by ownership after the season. A strong finish to the season by Snider can only help Ricciardi’s reputation. But if Snider is overwhelmed by big league pitching for the final month of the year, it could also have long-lasting effects on his development. It also gets Snider onto the club’s 40-man roster two years sooner than needed. It’s a gamble I’m not sure I would make unless I was desperate.

Leading up to the 2007 MLB amateur draft, there were three Puerto Rican players considered to be head-and-shoulders above their fellow country men in terms of potential: Reynaldo Navarro, Neftali Soto, and Angel Morales. All three players were chosen in the third round and were considered raw but talented. Let’s see how each one fared during the 2008 season.

Reynaldo Navarro, Shortstop, Arizona Diamondbacks
Navarro, 18, got off to a slow start after turning pro in 2007 by hitting .250/.274/.283 in 212 Rookie ball at-bats. He returned to the same league in 2008 and has improved, albeit slowly. He produced a line of .262/.334/.379 with 17 stolen bases in 256 at-bats. After walking just six times last season, Navarro has improved his patience by walking 25 times in 2008. The switch hitter needs to improve his swing from the left-hand side as he hit just .212 against right-handers, compared to .377 against southpaws. Right now, defence is his strong suit as a slick-fielding shortstop with range and actions. His arm strength is average.

Neftali Soto, Third baseman, Cincinnati Reds
Originally a shortstop, Soto was immediately converted to third base by the Reds. In his debut in the Gulf Coast League in 2007, he got off to a fast start and hit .303/.355/.454 in 40 games. The Reds were cautious with Soto in 2008 and he began the year in Rookie ball again where he hit .388/.423/.746 in 15 games. Soto, 19, was promoted to A-ball and hit .333/.352/.502 with six homers in 201 at-bats. The knock on him, though, is his lack of patience. In 103 pro games, Soto has walked just 22 times. Regardless, he is an intriguing prospect and has shown a lot of improvement in a short period of time. Reds fans need to start talking about this guy.

Angel Morales, Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
Morales’ bat was considered to be his weakest tool coming into the draft. He still struggles with consistency but no one expected him to hit with this kind of power, especially so soon. Morales had a decent debut by hitting .256/.357/.405 in 121 at-bats in the Gulf Coast League in 2007. He was held back for short-season ball again in 2008 but was promoted to a league that features more college players and Morales exploded with 15 homers in 183 at-bats. His overall line is .301/.413/.623 with 26 walks and a disturbing 72 strikeouts. Morales is going to have to swing-and-miss a lot less if he is going to maintain his average at higher levels. The right-handed batter is also hitting just .135 against southpaws, but that should improve as he sees more of them. Defensively, Morales is a solid center fielder.

I have to admit that I have not been a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ moves in recent years, but things are beginning to change. The Manny Ramirez deal, which the Pirates were involved in as the third team in, netted the organization some interesting players, as did the Xavier Nady trade with the New York Yankees.

After dealing with two powerhouse AL East teams, the Pirates made a smaller deal with another team in the division, the Toronto Blue Jays. The Pirates sent underachieving Jose Bautista, a former Rule 5 player who was playing at Triple-A and is eligible for arbitration after the season, to the Jays for a player to be named later. Bautista will help fill in for the perennially-injured Scott Rolen at third base.

The player-to-be-named-later was named yesterday, and it was Triple-A catcher Robinzon Diaz. I don’t like the trade from the Jays’ perspective because general manager J.P. Ricciardi – once again – sold low on a player. Diaz is a bad-ball hitter who has excellent hand-eye coordination and is a .300-plus career hitter (.306 in seven seasons), albeit with no power. He had been struggling at Triple-A, but had also missed a good portion of the season due to a severe ankle sprain.

Diaz was made expendable for Toronto because of the emergence of catcher Brian Jeroloman (Triple-A), and J.P. Arencibia (Double-A), both of whom were drafted and acquired under the Ricciardi tenure, while Diaz was not (Ricciardi seems to have a large bias for his own players).

The soon-to-be 25 year old catcher is very athletic and can play just about any where but shortstop and center field. He has an average arm for a catcher and pretty good catching skills, but his game calling has been criticized by Jays’ minor league pitchers. He should make a great third-string catcher and back-up at third base and second base.

Diaz will not be a superstar but he will be a solid addition to a National League club in rebuilding mode. With both of Toronto’s catching facing free agency this winter, he is also someone that organization could have used more than an arbitration-eligible utility player who cannot hit above .250.

When I heard that Eric was planning to do a piece on Albert Pujols today, I thought it might be interesting to go back and review that fateful draft when St. Louis found the future Hall of Famer in the 13th round.

Pujols was drafted out of a small school in 1999 called Maple Woods Community College. He signed about two months after the draft on Aug. 17 and did not make his pro debut until the following season. The 20-year-old hit .324/.389/.565 with 17 homers in 395 A-ball at-bats. Pujols also had 81 at-bats in High-A and 14 at-bats in Triple-A where he hit a human-like (gasp) .214/.267/.286.

Despite only having 14 at-bats above High-A ball, Pujols impressed the Cardinals in the spring of 2001 and the rest, as they say, is history.

But let’s take a step back even further and look at the actual draft where Pujols was acquired. The Tampa Bay Rays had the first overall pick and selected Mr. Josh Hamilton, another interesting story in his own right. The Marlins then took right-hander Josh Beckett and the Detroit Tigers took top college hitter Eric Munson, who found pro ball much more difficult. Other interesting first-round selections included Barry Zito (Oakland), Ben Sheets (Milwaukee), Brett Myers (Philadelphia), Alex Rios (Toronto) and… well, that was about it.

Some of the first round bombs included Corey Myers (Arizona), Josh Girdley (Montreal), Ryan Christianson (Seattle), and the Cardinals’ first-round pick Chance Caple.

Other draft steals included John Lackey (Los Angeles AL) and Carl Crawford (Tampa Bay) in the second round, Justin Morneau (Minnesota) in the third round, as well as J.J Putz, Erik Bedard and Aaron Harang in the sixth round. The next true steal was Pujols in the 13th.

Other big leaguers who were drafted in the 13th round of the 1999 draft include Justin Leone (Seattle), Frank Brooks (Philadelphia), Alfredo Amezaga (Los Angeles AL) and Jason Jones (Texas). Amezaga has had 1,200 MLB at-bats as a utility player, but Leone and Jones have combined for 210 at-bats and nine homers. Brooks has appeared in 12 big league games.

I talked a little bit about Baltimore Orioles pitching prospect Chris Tillman yesterday. Tillman’s Double-A rotation mate David Hernandez is another interesting prospect in the system and a survey by Baseball America recently ranked the pitcher’s out-pitch as the best breaking ball in the Eastern League.

Hernandez was drafted in the 16th round of the 2005 draft out of Cosumnes River Junior College. It was the third time that he had been drafted, including in the 29th round of the 2003 draft by Colorado and the 34th round of the 2004 draft by Arizona.

Along with his breaking ball – which has been called both a curveball and a slider – Hernandez also has a low-90s fastball that can touch the mid-90s and a change-up. He has battled his command a bit (including a career 3.88 BB/9) but Hernandez, 23, has also always been able to rack up the strikeouts (career 10.17 K/9).

After spending his first three pro seasons in A-ball, Hernandez has taken to Double-A like a fish to water. He currently has allowed 102 hits in 129 innings pitched, good for a .217 average against. He also has allowed 64 walks and struck out 156 batters. Hernandez is also an extreme flyball pitcher. If you combine that fact with the high number of walks this season it’s clear that the pitcher still has work to do, but it shouldn’t be long before Hernandez receives a taste of Major League Baseball.

It must be depressing times for Seattle Mariners fans. Not only is the club mired in a 46-80 season, but there is a bitter aftertaste lingering in most fans’ mouths thanks to last winter’s Erik Bedard trade.

It is rare for a multi-player trade to work out perfectly for a club receiving five “lesser” players in return for one established Major League star, but it’s come pretty close to perfect for Baltimore. Adding insult to injury is the fact that Bedard has hardly been a savior for the Mariners’ rotation and he hasn’t really fit in in Seattle leading to rumors that the club would like to trade him. That said, his numbers look OK on the surface and he has allowed just 70 hits in 81 innings to go along with 31 walks and 72 strikeouts.

Let’s take a look at the players the Mariners gave up:

Who would have thought that a LOOGY would suddenly become so valuable? George Sherrill, who made his MLB debut at the age of 27 and spent parts of four seasons facing nothing but left-handed batters, has saved 31 games for the Orioles this season, solidifying the back end of the bullpen. The Mariners relievers, on the other hand, have managed just 23 saves as a team and rock-solid closer J.J. Putz has pitched, well, like a putz.

Considered the key ingredient in the trade from Baltimore’s perspective, Adam Jones has had an up-and-down season as a 22-year-old (now 23) everyday outfielder. He has a line of .279/.320/.405 with seven homers and eight stolen bases in 398 at-bats. Jones has walked just 19 times to go along with 92 strikeouts. Basically he has been Delmon Young-lite.

Right-hander Chris Tillman, 20, has been the true steal of the trade and has rocketed up prospect lists everywhere to become one of the top five pitching prospects in Double-A and Triple-A combined. In Double-A this season, Tillman has allowed just 106 hits in 124.2 innings, along with 59 walks and 139 strikeouts. As well, he has as many wins – nine – as home runs allowed. Right-handed batters are hitting just .218 against him and he could make his Major League debut next season at the age of 21.

Kam Mickolio was added to the Orioles’ 25-man roster earlier this week. The 24-year-old right-hander stands 6-9 and towers over opponents. His first Major League appearance was a little rough as he allowed three hits and one runs in one inning, but he did strike out two batters. Between Double-A and Triple-A this season, Mickolio allowed 50 hits in 56.1 innings with 29 walks and 60 strikeouts. He allowed just two home runs.

Tony Butler, a 6-7, 20-year-old hurler, has been the quietest player obtained in the fateful deal. He started out the season OK in A-ball by allowing 59 hits and 11 walks in 55 innings. After his June 19 start (He allowed five runs in three innings), though, Butler went on the disabled list with arm problems and has not been seen since.

So there you have it. The Orioles received a solid closer, starting outfielder, middle reliever, top pitching prospect and a young, dark horse prospect for a pitcher that has already worn out his welcome in his new home.

Not bad.