Archive for Minor Leagues

Yada, Yada, Yadier…

The St. Louis Cardinals organization is already blessed with a talented backstop, but there is another talented catcher on his way to the big league club in the near future.

Yadier Molina, already in his fifth Major League season, is having a career year and just turned 26. He is currently hitting .312/.365/.399 with four homers in 276 at-bats. He has also walked 24 times with 14 strikeouts. Molina has improved for two years in a row, which helps to suggest that this is not a fluke season, as he heads into his playing prime. Defensively, there aren’t many, if any, catchers who offer his all-around skills behind the dish.

Molina’s current back-up is light-hitting veteran catcher Jason LaRue, who is having a ‘rejuvenated’ season at the age of 34 after hitting below .200 each of the last two years. LaRue, a free agent at the end of the season, is hitting .242/.339/.400 in just 95 at-bats. At Triple-A, minor league veteran Mark Johnson is a solid defensive catcher who could probably offer just about as much with the bat as LaRue and possibly more defensively.

Also at Triple-A is the Cardinals’ top catching prospect Bryan Anderson. The 21-year-old is still a little rough behind the plate (although he calls a great game) but you cannot argue with his offensive potential. He began the season at Double-A and hit .388/.412/.525 with two homers in 80 at-bats. Anderson was then promoted to Triple-A where he has hit .320/.396/.433 with one homer in 150 at-bats. He also has 18 walks and 23 strikeouts. He was originally selected in the fourth round out of high school in the 2005 amateur draft. Anderson’s lack of power is the only real smudge on his prospect status and he should be ready to apprentice with Molina as soon as the Cardinals decide to cut ties with LaRue.


Cardinals in the Outfield

Top offensive prospect Colby Rasmus is having an off-season in Triple-A for the St. Louis Cardinals organization. The 21-year-old was selected in the first round (28th overall) of the 2005 draft out of a Georgia high school. He has moved swiftly through the system and hit .275/.381/.551 with 29 homers and 18 stolen bases in 472 Double-A at-bats last season. So far this season, and now at Triple-A Memphis, he is batting .249/.351/.401 with 11 homers and 13 stolen bases in 309 at-bats. Interestingly, Rasmus – a left-handed batter – is hitting just .237 against right-handed pitchers and .277 against southpaws. On the positive side, Rasmus hit .333 in June after hitting .210 in April and .218 in May.

Although Rasmus is struggling, fellow outfield prospect Shane Robinson is improving his standing in the organization. The 23-year-old was originally selected out of Florida State University in the fifth round of the 2006 draft. He was slowed by an injury in 2007 at hit just .253/.321/.355 in 166 High-A at-bats. This year, though, Robinson was challenged with a promotion to Double-A and responded with a line of .352/.396/.496 with four homers and 13 RBI in 244 at-bats. He was promoted to Triple-A in June and has hit .265/.284/.349 with one homer and one stolen base. Robinson, who is only 5-9, likely projects as a fourth outfielder in the Major Leagues as a player who has limited power and patience at the plate. Defensively, he has a questionable arm for center field.

Jon Jay is another outfielder who has improved his prospect standing this season. Like Robinson, Jay was selected in the 2006 draft as a second round pick out of the University of Miami. He was also slowed by injuries in 2007 and hit just .265/.328/.387 in 230 at-bats at three levels. This season, at Double-A Springfield, Jay is batting .305/.375/.471 with 11 homers and nine stolen bases in 325 at-bats. The left-handed hitter is maintaining a solid average against southpaws (.277) and right-handers (.312). Jay has a slightly brighter future as a better defensive outfielder than Robinson.

With solid outfield depth at the Major League level already, the Cardinals could use any of the above players to help fill some of the other holes on the big league club before the trade deadline at the end of this month.


Birds of a Feather Flock… in Opposite Directions

The St. Louis Cardinals’ top two pitching – not currently at the Major League level – are headed in different directions. Adam Ottavino and Jess Todd were both drafted within the top two rounds of the 2006 and 2007 drafts. And both were solid college pitchers, although Ottavino has been a starter throughout his college and pro career, while Todd was converted to a full-time starter in pro ball.

Ottavino, 22, was selected 30th overall in the 2006 draft out of Northeastern University and had a solid pro debut in 2006. He followed that up with another good season, although he was not quite as good as some of his superficial numbers would suggest. In High-A ball, Ottavino posted a 3.08 ERA with a record of 12-8. Those numbers masked some other numbers that were not as impressive, including a 3.96 BB/9 rate and an 8.04 K/9, which is OK but not spectacular for his age, level and experience. So far in 2008, Ottavino has had a rough season at Double-A. He has a 6.08 ERA in 66.2 innings and has allowed 72 hits. Ottavino has also posted 37 walks and 59 strikeouts. He has allowed more than a hit an inning for the first time in his career and his walk rate has risen to almost five per game, at 4.90 BB/9. His strikeout totals are about the same at 8.16 K/9. After allowing fewer than one homer per nine innings in his career, Ottavino currently has a rate of 1.48 HR/9 in Springfield.

On the other hand, Jess Todd, 22, has thrived at Double-A. The 2007 second round pick out of the University of Arkansas currently has a 2.31 ERA in 74 innings pitched with 51 hits allowed. He has walked just 17 batters with 57 strikeouts. Opponents are hitting .199 against him and he has a rate of 5.84 H/9. One downside is that after averaging more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings over the last two minor league stops, Todd now has a rate of 6.93 K/9. He has offset that by walking just 2.07 batters per nine innings. If you take out his worst outing of the year, which occurred in his last start when he allowed six runs in 4.2 innings, Todd would have a career ERA of 2.09 with 111 hits allowed in 155 innings.

Prospects Chris Perez and Jaime Garcia have already made an impact at the Major League level this season for the Cardinals and Todd does not seem that far away. He could even find himself in the majors before the end of the season. Ottavino, on the other hand, has a few more adjustments to make before making the next step.


Cubs “Top” Prospects Remain After Trade

The Chicago Cubs managed to acquire one of the top pitchers in the game (when healthy) in Rich Harden and also received sleeper Chad Gaudin in this week’s trade with the Oakland Athletics. Impressively, the Cubs organization did not part with any of its “top” prospects, including third baseman Josh Vitters and pitcher Jose Ceda.

Vitters began the season in April in Low A-ball but struggled and ended up on the disabled list. He resurfaced in June in the short-season Northwest League and has played exceptionally well, although most 2007 first round prep players are currently in full-season ball. He is currently hitting .329/.385/.512 in 82 at-bats with with two homers and 14 RBI. Vitters was drafted third overall in the 2007 draft out of high school.

Ceda was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2004. The 21-year-old is currently pitching in Double-A after beginning the year in High-A ball. He was recently moved to the bullpen and has allowed nine hits and three walks (2.25 BB/9) in 12 innings. Ceda has struck out 18 (13.50 K/9). His fastball can tease triple digits and his slider is a strikeout pitch.

The club also did not part with a couple of fringe Top 10 organizational prospects in Jeff Samardzija and Tyler Colvin. Both players were highly drafted and handed handsome sums of money to sign with the Cubs, but neither player has put up eye-catching numbers in the minor league system. The organization still touts the players amongst its best, but the truth is that few other organizations feel the same way.

Samardzija was given a five-year, $10 million contract in 2006 as a fifth round pick to lure him away from playing pro football. The results on the mound have been mixed. His numbers have never matched his mid-90s fastball and, although he was recently promoted to Triple-A, his Double-A numbers were troubling. In 76 innings at the lower level, Samardzija allowed just 71 hits but he walked 42 (4.97 BB/9) and struck out just 44 (5.21 K/9). His rates have been slightly better in Triple-A but with only four starts it is a small sample size. Samardzija would probably be best suited to a bullpen role.

Colvin was the shock of the 2006 draft’s first round when the Cubs selected him 13th overall. The athletic outfielder has been hurt in his pro career by a base-on-balls phobia. He is currently playing in Double-A and hitting .241/.306/.384 in 352 at-bats. Colvin has seven homers and 46 RBI. He has walked more this season in the past with 32 (8.4 percent), to go along with 71 strikeouts (20.5 percent). Last season he managed to walk only about three percent of the time. Right now he projects as a fourth outfielder at best.

So while the Cubs managed to hold on to many of the organization’s top prospects, the future “stars” of the organization still have a lot of question that need answering before they can become the next Geovany Soto.


A’s Choose Quantity Over Quality

The recent trade between the Oakland Athletics and the Chicago Cubs was interesting to say the least. Firstly, it came out of nowhere. Secondly, the haul for Major League pitchers Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin was far less than I would have expected the Athletics to receive, given the value of pitching in today’s game.

I won’t dwell on new A’s starter Sean Gallagher too much, since David wrote a nice piece on him yesterday. But I will say that he is definitely the key piece of the trade and should fit into the rotation immediately.

Eric Patterson is the brother of Cincinnati Reds outfield Corey Patterson. Eric is not a very good defensive player and he has already moved from second base to the outfield. His poor arm strength pretty much limits him to left field, first base or some second base, which hurts his value as a utility player. In nine left field games this season for Chicago, Eric made three errors. He was originally drafted in the eighth round of the 2004 draft after playing college ball at Georgia Tech.

Matt Murton has proven that he is a major league hitter but he has been buried at Triple-A in the Cubs organization despite a .294/.362/.448 line in 308 games over four seasons. He does not have a ton of power so he is best suited to a fourth outfielder or platoon role. Murton is a corner outfielder with average abilities in the field. He was the first round pick of the Boston Red Sox in 2003 and, like Eric Patterson, played at Georgia Tech.

Catcher Josh Donaldson has spent the season struggling at A-ball in the Midwest League. He is currently hitting .223/.282/.358 in 229 at-bats. It’s unfortunate because Donaldson, who was moved behind the plate at Auburn University, was supposed to have a much better bat than glove. He did hit .335/.460/.590 in 173 at-bats during his debut in Short Season ball in 2007. Defensively, he has made seven errors this season in 51 games behind the dish and has six passed balls. He has thrown out 27 of 71 (38 percent) runners attempting to steal a base. He was drafted 48th overall in the supplemental first round of the 2007 draft.

In all, the Athletics received a promising starting pitcher, two bench players and a catcher who may stick behind the plate and may hit enough to play in the majors… for two proven Major League pitchers who can both work out of the starting rotation. Patterson and Murton probably take the roster spots from Wes Bankston and Rajai Davis, offering modest upgrades. Donaldson addresses an organizational weakness at the catching position. Most of the pressure remains on Gallagher… especially if Harden stays healthy for any significant amount of time.

Also, keep an eye on Gaudin if he gets the opportunity to start in the National League. He could thrive there.


Reversing Thoughts on Revere

On Day 1 of the 2007 MLB Amateur Draft, people (myself included) kept harping on the Minnesota Twins’ overdraft of a Kentucky high school by the name of Ben Revere. Well, the diminutive outfielder (5-9, 165) is obviously out to make a lot of people look silly.

His onslaught began in his pro debut when he hit .325/.388/.461 in 191 Rookie Ball at-bats. Revere slugged 10 triples and kept his strikeout rate down at a respectable 10.5 percent, while walking 6.4 percent. He also stole 21 of 30 bases.

Revere had a late start to 2008, but he has been on fire since joining Beloit at the end of April. He is currently hitting .403/.457/.548 with 13 doubles and eight triples in 221 at-bats. Revere has walked just 18 times (less than eight percent), but he has kept his strikeouts down to about 10 percent. He has stolen 26 bases in 37 attempts.

Here is the bad news. Revere is probably not going to keep channeling Kirby Puckett and the slugging percentage is going to take a hit as he moves up the ladder – power is just not his game. He is also not going to hit .400 this season. His BABIP is currently astronomical at .440 and he has a line drive rate of 16 percent.

Regardless, Revere is gaining well-deserved attention and could be in Minnesota quicker than anyone projected – perhaps as soon as late 2010 – if his lack of patience does not hurt him at Double-A and above.


Brewers-Indians Swap: The Lesser Names

Last week I wrote about the log jam in Milwaukee regarding prospects Mat Gamel and Matt LaPorta. Well, Milwaukee solved part of that issue now that the organization has sent LaPorta to the Indians as part of the trade for C.C. Sabathia. Since we have already taken a look at the big-named prospect, let’s have a look-see at the other prospects in the deal.

Zach Jackson, LHP, Triple-A
Jackson was originally drafted 32nd overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2004 out of Texas A&M. At the time, he was considered an advanced college arm with a limited ceiling. Unfortunately, the latter part was true but the former was not, as Jackson has yet to solidify a big league role in five pro seasons. The 25-year-old southpaw has terrible Triple-A numbers this season, including a 7.85 ERA and 81 hits allowed in 57.1 innings split between the starting rotation and the bullpen. In his MLB career, Jackson has allowed 53 hits in 42 innings and has posted a strikeout rate of just 4.93 K/9.

Rob Bryson, RHP, A-ball
Bryson was a 31st round selection in the 2006 draft out of a Delaware high school. He has bounced back and forth between the starting rotation and the bullpen during his two seasons in the minors and has good numbers this year. He currently has allowed 43 hits in 55 innings and has struck out 77 batters. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher with a ground out to air out ratio of 0.87. He has a low-90s fastball, breaking ball and change-up.

Taylor Green, 3B, High-A (Rumored to be the Player to be Named Later)
Green, 21, was a find in the 25th round of the 2005 draft out of a community college. The left-handed hitting Canadian struggled in his debut as a 19-year-old second baseman in Rookie ball and hit .231/.328/.308 in 221 at-bats. He was moved up to A-ball in 2007 (and over to the hot corner) and thrived with a line of .327/.406/.516 with 14 homers and 86 RBI in 397 at-bats. So far this season, Green is performing well at High-A ball and currently has a line of .295/.380/.444 with 10 homers in 302 at-bats. He also has a BB-K rate of 1.00. His strikeout rate has dropped from 16.4 percent in 2007 to 13.8 in 2008.

At first glance it does not appear that Cleveland received a ton of value in this trade, with the majority of the talent locked up in one player: Matt LaPorta. But one must consider that the Brewers may have Sabathia’s services for just three months, if he elects to leave via free agency this winter. LaPorta is also a very talented player and has Travis Hafner-in-his-prime upside and can now be moved back to first base or spend time as a designated hitter.


‘B’ is for Brewers and Prospects

Brewers prospects such as Mat Gamel and Matt LaPorta get a great deal of attention, and deservedly so. However, the Brewers have a few ‘B-level prospects’ that are intriguing, including Michael Brantley and Cole Gillespie.

Brantley is interesting because he is a ‘small ball’ player who has actually embraced the role. The speedy outfielder is only 21 and succeeding at the Double-A level. He is currently hitting .324/.405/.412 in 306 at-bats. He has 39 walks and just 18 strikeouts. Brantley has stolen 25 bases in 31 attempts and has scored 62 runs in 74 games.

In his career, Brantley has a .314 batting average and .404 on-base percentage. He has walked 180 times and struck out just 129 times in 1,221 career at-bats. Defensively, he is a little raw and relies on his speed to make up for his mistakes. The left-handed batter was drafted in the seventh round of the 2005 draft out of a Florida high school.

Gillespie, 24, is a much different player, although he shares the outfield grass with Brantley in Huntsville. Gillespie is currently hitting .273/.376/.491 with 10 homers and 28 doubles in 293 at-bats. He has also shown some patience at the plate with a .395 career on-base percentage.

He is considered a gamer and has solid all-around skills although no one tool stands out, which could limit him to a fourth outfielder role in the majors, as he has enough defensive ability to play all three spots. Gillespie has just enough offensive potential to spend a few years playing every day for a mid-level team. He was originally drafted out of Oregon State University in the third round of the 2006 draft.


A Fat Dose of the Good Speed

Jeremy Jeffress has one powerful arm. Unfortunately, he also allegedly has one powerful love of… ’90s Cypress Hill music, shall we say, which has resulted in more than one suspension from baseball and the Milwaukee Brewers. The right-hander was originally drafted 16th overall in the 2005 draft out of a Virginia high school.

Back from his latest suspension, Jeffress has started nine High-A ball games with mixed results. He is still touching the upper 90s with improved command and control (6.68 BB/9 in 2006, 4.59 in 2007, 3.40 in 2008), but consistency remains a work-in-progress. Here is the breakdown of his nine starts, including three bad performances and six good ones:

The Bad:  11.2 IP | 21 H | 06 BB | 22 K | 20 ER | 16.07 ERA 
The Good: 36.0 IP | 18 H | 12 BB | 43 K | 03 ER | 00.75 ERA

By those numbers above, it is clear that when Jeffress is on, he is on. That is a ridiculous split on the ERA. It is interesting, though, that Jeffress’ strikeout rate is actually better when he is struggling: 16.85 K/9, compared to 10.75 K/9 when he is pitching well. The control is less impressive when he struggles: 4.60 BB/9, compared to 3.00 BB/9, but it does not seem that extreme. Perhaps Jeffress is tipping pitches during his bad starts, which allows hitters to sit on a certain pitch. Even when you know what’s coming, it can be hard to hit a high-90s fastball, especially in A-ball.

One thing is for sure… If Jeffress can stay healthy and, more importantly at this point, on the straight-and-narrow, then the Brewers could have something very special.


The Milwaukee Conundrum

Depth is always a good thing. But it can also be frustrating. Such is the case with the Milwaukee Brewers and top offensive prospects Matt LaPorta and Mat Gamel. LaPorta is a first baseman (a DH, really) playing left field. Gamel is a left fielder playing third base.

Movin’ on Up (2008 Double-A stats):

Matt LaPorta  .290/.403/.584 | 19 HR | 63 RBI | 42 BB-60 K
Mat Gamel     .383/.445/.639 | 15 HR | 72 RBI | 38 BB-60 K

Holdin’ Down the Fort (2008 MLB stats):

Prince Fielder .272/.360/.487 | 16 HR | 43 RBI | 39 BB-61 K
Ryan Braun     .282/.317/.544 | 20 HR | 58 RBI | 16 BB-70 K
Bill Hall      .212/.275/.386 | 10 HR | 28 RBI | 18 BB-67 K

LaPorta was selected in the first round (seventh overall) of the 2007 draft out of the University of Florida as a senior, which surprised many because he was blocked at the Major League level by young, talented first baseman Prince Fielder. The Brewers immediately announced the organization’s intention to relocate LaPorta to the outfield. The move was met with skepticism given the lumbering man’s lack of athleticism but he has not embarrassed himself in the field (nor is he an average fielder, though) and he has torn the cover off the ball. In his pro career, he is hitting .300/.398/.643.

Gamel was snagged in the fourth round of the 2005 draft out of Chipola Junior College, ironically in the same draft that saw the club take Ryan Braun (originally a road block at third base, now in left field) fifth overall out of the University of Miami. Gamel was a pretty good value, costing the Brewers $2,224,000 less than Braun. He, like LaPorta, has done nothing but hit in the majors and currently sports a career line of .311/.381/.504. Gamel does not possess as much power as LaPorta, who could be a 40-homer guy, but the former juco player is a threat to hit .300, while LaPorta should be more around the .270-.280 area in the Major Leagues.

If both these players were in different organizations, they may very well have already made it to the major leagues. Bill Hall (.917 fielding percentage) certainly is not keeping Gamel or LaPorta in the minors, so it is clear Milwaukee does not see Gamel as the answer at third base. But neither player is going to move Braun out of left field. However, Fielder’s contract grumblings, offensive “struggles” and physique may make him expendable sooner rather than later. But even that solves only half of the problem.

Happy Canada Day to my fellow Canadians.