The Cincinnati Reds organization features some high-ceiling talent at the top of the Top 15 list but the depth in the organization is lacking. There are some impact arms at the top but the up-the-middle offensive players are somewhat lacking, other than Billy Hamilton.

#1 Billy Hamilton (SS)

Hamilton is probably one of the most hyped prospects in recent memory because of his plus-plus speed and 100+ stolen base totals that he’s racked up in each of the past two minor league seasons. Some patience is required with the prospect, though, as he’s not a finished product. One thing that excites the Reds, though, is that he could develop into an impact lead-off hitter. A contact stated, “It’s hard to find guys with the mentality and desire to be a good lead-off hitter… It’s not always a glamorous spot.”

Hamilton, 22, was shifted from shortstop, his natural position, to center field late in 2012 so the coming season will be key in his defensive development. He has all the skills necessary to develop into a plus fielder — above-average range, good arm and developing reads. The contact I spoke with said the defensive move had nothing to do with the organization’s feeling that Hamilton could not handle shortstop. “It’s more about what he can do, rather than what he can’t, with this move… He’s going to be one of the best [in center field].”

Hamilton split 2012 between high-A and double-A before finishing the year off in the Arizona Fall League. The contact I spoke with said Hamilton got off to a low start in double-A when he moved up and that might have been one of the best things for his development. It might be shocking to hear, but the talent evaluator said the struggles were “good to see,” adding that it often doesn’t help prospects when their first tastes of adversity come at the big league level. “It can really crush a guy,” he added. Hamilton should open 2013 in triple-A and his defensive development will dictate when he’s ready to contribute at the big league level. Read the rest of this entry »

The Marlins Top 15 list has a little bit of everything and the organization boasts some impressive arms. There are three left-handed starters on the list that have the potential to develop into No. 3 starters, if not better. The overall depth of the system is improving but it’s still not quite where I’d like it to be.

#1 Jose Fernandez (P)

Fernandez, just 20, dominated two levels of A-ball in 2012. The 14th overall pick during the 2011 amateur draft, the right-hander was considered an advanced high school arm but he’s been even better than advertised. He struck out 158 batters with just 35 walks in 134 combined innings last season. He has a four-pitch repertoire that includes a mid-to-high-90s fastball, plus changeup and two very good breaking balls in a curveball and slider.

Although he’s very advanced for his age, a contact I spoke with says Fernandez still has some work to do, including, “Learning how to pitch, reading hitters swings, and a better understanding of pitch sequences,” the talent evaluator said. The young hurler also has so many weapons at his disposal that he needs to learn when it’s appropriate to use each one for maximum effectiveness. Fernandez has a durable frame and should be able to provide 200+ innings with ease at the big league level. He will, though, have to watch his conditioning to prevent getting too big around the middle. Read the rest of this entry »

I swear I’ve posted almost all of my instructs reports. From Phillies camp, I’ve got two of the top three picks from the most recent draft, both multi-sport athletes as the Phillies are notorious for drafting.

Mitch Gueller was the 54th overall pick (sandwich round) in June from a Washington state high school that signed for slot, nearly $950,000. Gueller was a high school quarterback and also played basketball, so his solid-average speed and athleticism stood out, along with his 6’3, 215 pound frame and fastball that peaked at 95 mph. Unfortunately, it appeared Gueller was fatigued the two times I saw him in instructs as his velo was down and he had more command issues and trouble repeating his delivery than he should.

The first time I saw him, he was facing Gerrit Cole (report) and while Cole was busy hitting 101 mph, Gueller was a more workmanlike 87-89 mph. He spotted his fastball well early, wasn’t afraid to come inside and he kept the ball down. Gueller was throwing a four-seamer that didn’t move much and as he lost his release point, tried throwing a cutter, sinker and slider, all of which weren’t working. The second time I saw Gueller he was much more crisp, sitting 89-90 mph and showing a usable cutter and slider. Gueller’s slider was 81-83 mph and showed average potential and 12-to-6 tilt with late, short bite. His changeup was a solid pitch, also showing average potential in both outing at 79-82 mph with more sink than fade but good deception and arm speed.

Read the rest of this entry »

For the last entry from Pirates instructs, I’ll run through a number of players that caught my eye for different reasons, lightning-round style.

I saw Mel Rojas Jr. and Gift Ngoepe a good bit during the FSL regular season, and both will flash big league potential at times but had some struggles at the plate. Ngoepe is a great story as a South African-born, 5’10, 180 pound switch-hitting shortstop that will likely get at least a cup of coffee in the big leagues. He’s a switch hitter with plus speed and an above average arm with good hands and fluid actions that will be enough to allow him to stick at shortstop long term. He also uses his speed effectively in his offensive game, often bunting, stealing bases and finding ways to contribute.

Ngoepe’s weakness is his well-below average raw power and some rawness in his offensive game. He gets thrown out a little more than he should on the bases and needs to pick better spots to run but also needs to tighten up his strike zone. For as much as Ngoepe understands his limitations at the plate and tries to play within them, he can get pull-conscious and try to do something with anything close to the plate rather than being more selective. If Ngoepe can shrink his zone and continue to develop his game, there’s a potential big league future as a utility infielder. He’s a little tough to project given his unusual path, but from what I’ve seen I graded Ngoepe as an up/down player that will make the big leagues.

Rojas has some similar qualities to Ngoepe as a guy with big league tools and a good defensive profile who needs to tighten up his approach at the plate to reach his potential. That said, Rojas has much better size and tools; as a 6’3, 215 pound athlete Rojas is a solid-average runner with a solid-average arm and is a switch-hitter with above-average bat speed and average raw power from both sides. You can see why, with a toolset like that, the Pirates took him in the 3rd round out of an Illinois junior college in 2010.

Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier in the week, I discussed the type of prospect package the Diamondbacks would require from the Atlanta Braves for a deal to make sense for both franchises. Little did I know the Braves would be willing to part with Martin Prado, a lynchpin of the organization who has averaged nearly four-wins per season from 2010-2012.

When a player of Prado’s ilk is included, the prospect haul is bound to shrink. While all four youngsters have Major League possibilities, the group is void of impact potential. Read the rest of this entry »

Richie Shaffer won’t be displacing Evan Longoria any time soon. That doesn’t mean the 21-year-old Tampa Bay Rays third base prospect doesn’t have a promising future. Drafted 25th overall last year out of Clemson, Shaffer projects to bash his way to Tropicana Field.

Shaffer talked about his game when the short-season Hudson Valley Renegades visited Boston to play in the Futures at Fenway doubleheader.

——

David Laurila: How have you been approaching your first professional season?

Richie Shaffer: I’ve been going out there and being myself. I’m playing baseball and doing the best I can, trying not to over-think things. I’m letting the work I do before games translate into production during the games. That’s the key. You want to be consistent. Basically, I’m trying to get the feel for what professional baseball is all about.

DL: Are there specific things you need to focus on?

RS: There are things I want to key on, both strengths and weaknesses. I want to do improve my game and make myself more well-rounded. I’m constantly working on my footwork at third. I’m constantly trying to keep my swing where it needs to be. I’m working on my pitch recognition and plate discipline. I’m thinking about my approach and driving the ball the other way. All of those things, because I want to be a complete, well-rounded baseball player.

DL: Have you seen scouting reports — in Baseball America or elsewhere — that you don’t fully agree with? Read the rest of this entry »

The Rays continue to have one of the best farm systems in Major League Baseball, both in terms of high ceiling talent and depth. The off-season trade that added Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard added to the Rays’ embarrassment of riches.

#1 Wil Myers (OF)

A former third round draft pick out of a North Carolina high school by the Kansas City Royals, the catcher-turned-outfielder has developed into one of the top power-hitting prospects in baseball. He’s now among the Top 5 prospects in all of baseball. Because of that fact, it was somewhat shocking that Kansas City was willing to move the top prospect in the winter of 2012-13 to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for pitching help in the form of James Shields and Wade Davis. Read the rest of this entry »

The Braves system is not as deep as it once was and the majority of the talent is found in the lower levels of the system. With that said, there are some intriguing pitching and up-the-middle infield prospects. The outfield depth is very thin.

#1 Julio Teheran (P)

It was an off year for Teheran but it’s important to remember that the Colombia native was just 21 years old and pitching in both triple-A and the majors. He posted a 5.08 ERA with 146 hits allowed in 131 innings for Gwinnet. His strikeout rate of 6.66 K/9 was a career low, and the result of poor fastball command. Teheran fell behind in counts too often and wasn’t able to set up his curveball.

Read the rest of this entry »

Despite having covered the headliner arms of Pirates instructs — Gerrit Cole (covered last week) and Jameson Taillon (looking basically the same as when I covered him midseason) — there were still some interesting high ceiling arms on display.

First up is righty Nick Kingham, whom the Pirates signed for an over-slot bonus just under $500,000 in the 4th round of the 2010 draft from a Las Vegas area high school. Kingham made his full season debut in Low-A West Virginia as a 20 year old in 2012 and had a solid campaign—groundballs, good control and a solid K rate despite what appears to be a fluky home run rate fueling a 4.39 ERA.

Those stats imply an evaluation close to what I saw from Kingham in instructs. In a two inning stint, he sat 92-94 with consistent above average two-seam life down in the zone and solid location. Kingham’s 82-83 mph slider was above average at times with long action, occasional hard bite and three-quarters tilt. His changeup was the better off-speed pitch, consistently above average with better command, fade and bottom at 82-85 mph and he threw one that was plus.

Read the rest of this entry »

After a quick glance at the Top 15 list it should be fairly clear that this is one of the weakest minor league systems in Major League Baseball. Poor drafts (mainly due to lost draft picks from free agent acquisitions) and trades have decimated the system, which has almost no starting pitcher depth to speak of.

#1 Kaleb Cowart (3B)

The 18th overall selection of the 2010 amateur draft, Cowart has moved methodically through the Angels system. The third baseman split 2012 between two A-ball levels with modest results. Cowart, 20, has shown the ability to do a little bit of everything – flashing five tools. He currently has good gap power that is transitioning into more over-the-fence pop and he’s not afraid to take a walk. He swings and misses a fair amount but he’s young and still improving his pitch recognition. A switch-hitter, he tends to hit for better average from the right side of the plate but flashes solid power from the left side. When I saw him in April, Cowart was swinging around the ball and showed a need to get quicker to the ball.

At the hot corner, Cowart shows a strong arm –although it’s inaccurate at times –and sure hands. The athletic fielder has average range.The Georgia native was a two-way player in high school so his slower development is not a surprise — or a red flag. He has the potential to develop into an above-average third baseman, both on offense and defense. After struggling in the Arizona Fall League at the conclusion of the regular season, Cowart could return to the high-A level to open 2013 with an eye on reaching double-A in the second half of the season. Read the rest of this entry »