Archive for NERD

NERD Game Scores for June 29, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at Los Angeles AL | 22:07 ET
Kershaw (109.1 IP, 68 xFIP-) vs. Ramirez (86.1 IP, 94 xFIP-)
The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has once again selected a game featuring Clayton Kershaw, proving that it both (a) has the capacity to identify talented pitchers and (b) is also probably unnecessary. Shocked readers might note with shock that Kershaw doesn’t actually possess a perfect NERD score at the moment. The reason appears to be what is, for Kershaw, a subpar swinging-strike rate. Consider, for illustrative purposes, the following small table.

Kershaw, Swinging-Strike Rates
Year IP SwStk% Percentile*
2015 232.2 15.9% 98th
2016 149.0 15.3% 97th**
2017 109.1 12.7% 85th
*Among qualifiers.
**Kershaw didn’t qualify. This is rank if he had.

While Kershaw ranked either first or second by this measure relative to qualifiers in 2015-16, he currently sits 11th. This is likely of little consequence to Kershaw’s overall performance; however, it does appear to indicate that he’s been less dominant in 2017 by this one narrow definition.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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NERD Game Scores for June 28, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Milwaukee at Cincinnati | 19:10 ET
Anderson (89.1 IP, 100 xFIP-) vs. Castillo (5.0 IP, 120 xFIP-)
The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has identified today’s Brewers-Reds game as the day’s most promising — in no small part due to the presence of young right-hander Luis Castillo. Castillo hasn’t pitched a sufficient quantity of innings to receive a proper NERD score. At my discretion, however, he’s received a nearly perfect mark due to his debut performance, during which he recorded an average fastball velocity of 98.3 mph, a figure that would place him first among all qualifiers by that measure. He would appear to have some capacity either for thrilling or delighting or both thrilling and delighting.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for June 27, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at Arizona | 21:40 ET
Martinez (100.1 IP, 80 xFIP-) vs. Walker (63.0 IP, 94 xFIP-)
The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has identified this game as today’s most compelling due largely to the quality of the probable starters. Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez is in the midst of his best season by whatever metric — FIP- or xFIP- or ERA- — one cares to utilize. In a not unrelated development, he’s produced what would amount to the highest strikeout rate of his career by some margin. Taijuan Walker, for his part, has recorded strikeout and walk rates commensurate with his established levels. While having traditionally underperformed his expected FIPs, however, he’s now outperforming that same metric with the D-backs.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for June 26, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Minnesota at Boston | 19:10 ET
Berrios (54.0 IP, 98 xFIP-) vs. Sale (107.1 IP, 60 xFIP-)
The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has identified this game as the day’s most promising largely due to the appeal of the probable starters. Left-hander Chris Sale has been excellent, leading all qualifiers in strikeout- and walk-rate differential (K-BB%), park-adjusted xFIP (xFIP-), and WAR — by some margin, in the case of that last metric. As for Berrios, he’s finally begun experiencing the sort of success that both his stuff and minor-league numbers would suggest. Between his command and contact suppression, he’s managed to prevent runs at a slightly better rate than Sale himself, recording a park-adjusted ERA that would place him third among qualifiers.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for June 25, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Colorado at Los Angeles NL | 16:10 ET
Anderson (61.0 IP, 88 xFIP-) vs. McCarthy (69.0 IP, 93 xFIP-)
For the third consecutive day, the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm identifies a Rockies-Dodgers contest as the day’s most promising. That’s, in part, due to each club’s proximity to the top of the division. By the coin-flip method — which seems to best approximate how the human mind conceives of postseason contnetion — Colorado and LA feature a roughly 20% and 50% chance, respectively, of winning the NL West — so, not decisive in either case. Reality suggests that the probabilities aren’t quite so close. As everything everywhere suggests, however, the human mind has little use for reality.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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NERD Game Scores for June 24, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Colorado at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Chatwood (90.1 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Kershaw (103.1 IP, 68 xFIP-)
One doesn’t require the aid of a haphazardly constructed algorithm to reach the conclusion that a game started by Clayton Kershaw might offer thrills and/or delights. Of course, there are a number of things one doesn’t require in this life and yet pursues anyway. Like a degree in the humanities, for example. Or a distant father’s love.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for June 23, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Colorado at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Freeland (81.2 IP, 108 xFIP-) vs. Wood (61.2 IP, 59 xFIP-)
Navigating to FanGraphs’ WAR leaderboard for pitchers, one doesn’t find Dodgers starter Alex Wood listed among the league’s top-10 pitchers. One doesn’t find Wood’s name at all, in fact. This isn’t because Wood has pitched poorly. To the contrary, he’s been excellent. Rather, it’s because the pitching leaderboard only includes qualifiers. Indeed, after setting the innings threshold to 0, one finds Wood listed ninth by WAR — a mark he’s achieved in roughly two-thirds the innings as the pitchers on either side of him. The presence of Wood is one of this game’s multiple appealing qualities.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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NERD Game Scores for June 22, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Colorado | 15:10 ET
Godley (50.0 IP, 77 xFIP-) vs. Senzatela (83.1 IP, 100 xFIP-)
Per the author’s haphazard calculations, this D-backs and Rockies game is the day’s most promising. Neither club has been particularly well acquitted by these so-called NERD scores over the past few years. This season, however, has been different. Arizona has benefited from improbable success on the base paths. Colorado, for their part, have been one of the league’s top defensive clubs — led, in particular, by Nolan Arenado in that effort. Perhaps most notably, both teams feature nearly a 50% chance of making the divisional series this year.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for June 15, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Oakland | 22:05 ET
Montgomery (63.1 IP, 104 xFIP-) vs. Gray (47.1 IP, 73 xFIP-)
Oakland starter Sonny Gray throws either one or four or endless different sorts of breaking ball, Eno Sarris revealed in a post published this morning at the site. Among those infinite variations is this specific one, a pitch that travels at 94 mph and features slider-type break:

According to Gray himself, the movement here is a product of just a small alteration to his four-seam-fastball grip, which isn’t typically how human people are capable of producing such movement. At the margins of what is possible, is where Sonny Gray is located — at least so far as this one physical act is concerned.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for June 14, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at Cleveland | 19:10 ET
McCarthy (57.2 IP, 86 xFIP-) vs. Kluber (49.1 IP, 77 xFIP-)
Despite currently trailing the Minnesota Twins by two games in the AL Central, Cleveland nevertheless retains about an 85% probability of winning that division. Despite occupying first place with basically two other clubs, the Los Angeles Dodgers possess roughly an 85% probability of winning the NL West. Talented clubs, is what one finds here. This alone seems like sufficient grounds for one, looking to hold terror at arm’s length for a moment, to tune in.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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