Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Martinez (60.1 IP, 87 xFIP-) vs. Anderson (55.1 IP, 89 xFIP-)
Between 2013 and -14, St. Louis right-hander Carlos Martinez produced a 21.2% strikeout rate over 117.2 innings, the majority of the latter in a relief capacity. Over 60.1 innings this season, Martinez has recorded a 25.4% strikeout rate — which is to say, a mark about four points better than his career figure — while working almost exclusively in a starting capacity. This is unusual. As a rule, the same pitcher — because he’s able to throw harder and is likely to face a greater percentage of same-handed batters — the same pitcher will produce better strikeout numbers as a reliever than as a starter. To the extent that Martinez has exhibited the precise opposite trend, one is compelled to entertain the possibility that the rules don’t apply to Carlos Martinez. Or that, at least, one of the universe’s nearly infinite and oppressive rules doesn’t apply to him.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at Washington | 19:05 ET
Arrieta (65.0 IP, 72 xFIP-) vs. Gonzalez (59.0 IP, 84 xFIP-)
It’s possible that the people in American society who aren’t thinking, with at least some kind of regularity, about Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta — it’s possible that the reason for this absence in their lives is because they don’t particularly care for the sport of baseball or are working to give their children the opportunities they never had or are otherwise engaged. It’s also possible, however, that those same Americans have just never been given the opportunity to observe four of Arrieta’s curveballs in a row by means of embedded looping video. The purpose of this post at FanGraphs.com is to facilitate that opportunity for people in American society.

Regard:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Minnesota at Boston | 13:35 ET
Hughes (64.2 IP, 106 xFIP-) vs. Rodriguez (7.2 IP, 75 xFIP-)
A combination of faux science and the author’s own discretion suggest that this afternoon’s Twins-Red Sox game is the most likely, objectively speaking, to facilitate baseball pleasure. Largely that’s because it’s also the most likely — among all today’s various contests — to feature Boston rookie Eduardo Rodriguez, which left-handed pitcher recorded a 7:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his debut last week at Texas while also sitting in the mid-90s. Eno Sarris provided some brief comments on Rodriguez’s impressive velocity after the latter’s impressive debut. Chris Mitchell, meanwhile, utilized his KATOH machine to examine some of Rodriguez’s historic comparables. As for the present author, he merely wrote a paragraph of limited utility, which the reader has just now completed.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Sabathia (60.1 IP, 90 xFIP-) vs. Montgomery (MLB Debut)
One’s interest in this game — as opposed to the Toronto-Washington one, for example, featuring Max Scherzer — depends largely on one’s interest in Seattle left-hander Mike Montgomery. Acquired by the Mariners from the Rays at the end of March — and acquired by the Rays before that in the deal that sent James Shields to Kansas City — Mongtomery appeared three times among the top-50 prospects on Baseball America’s annual list. The last such appearance occurred in 2012, however, and the now 25-year-old left-hander has produced pretty ordinary results in the high minors since then. This year the numbers are more promising, though. Over nine starts and 53.0 innings for Triple-A Tacoma, Montgomery has produced strikeout and walk rates of 21.8% and 6.9%, respectively, while all signs indicate that he still possesses the above-average fastball cited by Kiley McDaniel this offseason. The combination of performance, physical tools, and pedigree conspire to produce not only an unintentional burst of alliteration but also some interest wherein Montgomery’s near future is concerned.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Pineda (64.1 IP, 63 xFIP-) vs. Hernandez (70.2 IP, 67 xFIP-)
The reason faux science has identified tonight’s Yankees-Mariners contest as Monday’s most compelling one is not a product of how the starter for the former of those clubs was previously employed by the latter of them, but mostly just of how that first starter (Michael Pineda) and also his opponent (Felix Hernandez) have produced among the league’s best numbers by an assortment of measures. That Pineda not only was employed by the Mariners, however, but also traded by them (for a player who currently resides at Triple-A) certainly establishes a foundation for a revenge narrative. Although, the extent of Pineda’s vengeance is likely to skew mild, resembling less the slaughter of numerous Trojan soldiers by a grieving Achilles and more just a solid athletic performance on a Monday night.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Chicago NL | 14:20 ET
Ventura (54.1 IP, 94 xFIP-) vs. Wada (10.0 IP, 64 xFIP-)
This past Wednesday in the electronic pages, contributor Jeff Zimmerman examined the relationship between pitcher velocity and a number of batted-ball types. One revelation from that post: that, as velocity declines, a pitcher is likely to concede more home runs per batted ball. Or, rendered into the form of the graph, this:

The discovery is both (a) not shocking but also (b) of some assistance to understanding the relationship between the gap (whether positive or negative) which certain pitchers exhibit between their expected FIP (xFIP) and ERA numbers. While xFIP relies on the supposition that home-run allowance will regress to a league-average rate, what Zimmerman’s work suggests is that pitchers who feature higher than average fastball velocities are likely to outperform their xFIPs; those who feature lower than average velocities, to underperform them. Of some relevance, is this, to Cubs starter Tsuyoshi Wada, who (a) is a candidate to produce impressive fielding-independent numbers, but also (b) sits at only about 89 mph.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at St. Louis | 19:15 ET
Frias (28.2 IP, 102 xFIP-) vs. Wacha (57.2 IP, 107 xFIP-)
Dodgers right-hander Carlos Frias suffered the slings and arrows less of outrageous fortune during his most recent start and more of the San Diego Padres batsmen (box). Facing 25 hitters, Frias recorded zero strikeouts, conceded two walks, and allowed 10 runs on 12 hits. One, in his most generous mood, might note that the Padres recorded hits on nearly half their balls in play against Frias. That same one, however, would find it difficult to ignore how Frias exhibited little feel for his release point over the duration of four mostly unpleasant innings. Despite those innings, Frias still owns slightly above-average fielding-independent numbers as a starter — plus also a swinging-strike rate and average fastball velocity that place him roughly 1.0 and 1.5 standard deviations, respectively, above the starting-pitcher mean.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Pittsburgh at San Diego | 22:10 ET
Liriano (53.2 IP, 80 xFIP-) vs. Shields (62.1 IP, 74 xFIP-)
Despite all his success in the majors over a decade-long career, San Diego right-hander James Shields has never produced a strikeout rate greater than 23.6% — which mark he recorded in 2012 while still with Tampa Bay. Last year, with Kansas City, he posted excellent numbers, both of the fielding-independent and also just normal run-prevention varieties. His 19.2% strikeout rate, however, was actually slightly below the major-league average figure. Over 10 starts and 62.1 innings this season, however, Shields has exhibited a different level of success in this regard. Regard, his current strikeout rate: 31.5%. Regard, his current swinging-strike rate, also: an unambiguously career-best mark of 15.0%. Among the possible explanations one is able to produce by means of brief and haphazard research: Shields’ curveball is generating an unprecedented rate of swings and misses — about 20 of them for every 100 curves thrown — and he’s utilizing the pitch more often.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Diego Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Games
Boston (Rodriguez) at Texas (Martinez) | 20:05 ET
Detroit (Farmer) at Los Angeles AL (Wilson) | 22:05 ET
Tonight offers two games featuring some manner of notable debut. Scheduled to start for the Red Sox in Texas — and to record his first major-league appearance in the process — is left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez. Acquired from Baltimore at last year’s trade deadline, Rodriguez was ranked second among Boston prospects by Kiley McDaniel this offseason and 23rd among all prospects. So far this season, he’s parlayed his plus fastball into strikeout and walk rates of 23.2% and 3.7%, respectively, for Triple-A Pawtucket.

Detroit right-hander Buck Farmer has produced a nearly identical strikeout rate against those same International League batters perhaps by means of his plus fastball but certainly by way of an impressive changeup such as the one featured in the footage below. The 24-year-old Farmer, for whom today represents his season debut in the majors, was ranked third among Tigers prospects by Kiley McDaniel this offseason. He’s also appeared on multiple occasions within the author’s Fringe Five column this year.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio and Detroit Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Tampa Bay | 13:10 ET
Hernandez (61.2 IP, 68 xFIP-) vs. Archer (60.0 IP, 69 xFIP-)
It is perhaps not one of the world’s great injustices, but still a small- or medium-sized injustice, that one is compelled to observe half of Seattle right-hander Felix Hernandez’s starts by means of Safeco’s center-field broadcast camera. The angle of that camera, one finds, distorts the magnitude of any horizontal break a pitch might feature moving in towards a right-handed batter or away from a left-handed one. As a result, it’s difficult to distinguish between anything a left-handed pitcher is throwing — or, alternatively, to fully appreciate a great right-handed changeup. Felix Hernandez possesses exactly the latter of those things. Fortunately, the Tampa Bay camera is one of the greats — as is Tampa Bay’s starter tonight, it seems.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

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