NERD Game Scores for Sunday, May 31, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Chicago NL | 14:20 ET
Ventura (54.1 IP, 94 xFIP-) vs. Wada (10.0 IP, 64 xFIP-)
This past Wednesday in the electronic pages, contributor Jeff Zimmerman examined the relationship between pitcher velocity and a number of batted-ball types. One revelation from that post: that, as velocity declines, a pitcher is likely to concede more home runs per batted ball. Or, rendered into the form of the graph, this:

The discovery is both (a) not shocking but also (b) of some assistance to understanding the relationship between the gap (whether positive or negative) which certain pitchers exhibit between their expected FIP (xFIP) and ERA numbers. While xFIP relies on the supposition that home-run allowance will regress to a league-average rate, what Zimmerman’s work suggests is that pitchers who feature higher than average fastball velocities are likely to outperform their xFIPs; those who feature lower than average velocities, to underperform them. Of some relevance, is this, to Cubs starter Tsuyoshi Wada, who (a) is a candidate to produce impressive fielding-independent numbers, but also (b) sits at only about 89 mph.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL Television.

A Single, Brief Note
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Los Angeles NL at St. Louis, starts at 2:15pm ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that the calculations both for team and game NERD scores have changed recently to better integrate playoff odds into same. Read more about those changes here, if you’re the sort of person accustomed to making poor life decisions.

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
David Phelps	MIA	3	5	5	5	7	NYN	Bartolo Colon	13:10
Tanner Roark*	WAS	6	5	5	5	4	CIN	Michael Lorenzen	13:10
Jordan Lyles	COL	3	3	3	0	4	PHI	Jerome Williams	13:35
Jake Odorizzi	TB	7	5	4	5	1	BAL	Chris Tillman	13:35
Chase Anderson	AZ	3	6	5	3	6	MIL	Tyler Wagner*	14:10
John Danks	CHA	3	0	3	10	2	HOU	Rob.o Hernandez	14:10
Drew Hutchison	TOR	8	8	6	2	5	MIN	Ricky Nolasco	14:10
Brett Anderson	LAN	6	7	7	6	9	STL	Carlos Martinez	14:15
Yo. Ventura	KC	9	7	7	6	6	CHN	Tsuyoshi Wada*	14:20
Joe Kelly	BOS	6	5	4	4	2	TEX	Wandy Rodriguez	15:05
Julio Teheran	ATL	5	2	5	5	6	SF	Ma.n Bumgarner	16:05
Adam Warren	NYA	3	7	4	5	4	OAK	Jesse Chavez	16:05
Danny Salazar	CLE	10	8	7	6	4	SEA	J.A. Happ	16:10
David Price	DET	5	5	6	6	6	LAA	Matt Shoemaker	20:05
Jeff Locke	PIT	5	7	4	3	2	SD	Od.r Despaigne	21:10

* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.