Archive for NERD

NERD Game Scores for June 13, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Detroit | 19:10 ET
Greinke (84.0 IP, 70 xFIP-) vs. Farmer (13.0 IP, 62 xFIP-)
Whatever the qualities that draw one to a particular athletic contest, it’s almost certain that one of them is the prospect of seeing that which one has never seen before. This contest between Arizona and Detroit offers such an opportunity — namely, to observe as right-hander Buck Farmer starts a game having recorded one of the best pitching lines in the majors. Over two starts and 13.0 innings, Farmer has recorded strikeout and walk rates of 34.8% and 6.5%, respectively, a 62 xFIP-, and about a single win above replacement, whether calculated by means of FIP or ERA. This is both improbable and reality.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for June 12, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Lackey (70.1 IP, 95 xFIP-) vs. deGrom (72.0 IP, 76 xFIP-)
As noted by Dave Cameron already this morning, the 2017 MLB draft begins tonight. The event provides an opportunity to contemplate the respective futures of talented young amateur players. It also represents an occasion on which to remember the (sometimes unlikely) origins of talented current majors leaguers.

One such talented current major leaguer is right-hander Jacob deGrom, who was selected by the Mets out of Stetson University in the ninth round of the 2010 draft. A player selected at that point in the draft can be expected to produce, on average, slightly more than a win over the course of his entire career. Since 1965, pitchers drafted in the ninth round who subsequently signed with the selecting club have recorded 0.6 WAR a piece. As for deGrom, he’s already compiled 13 career wins, or 20 times more than one might expect by that measure. He is, like all of us, an anomaly.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

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NERD Game Scores: Nik Turley Debut Event

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Minnesota at San Francisco | 16:05 ET
Turley (MLB Debut) vs. Cain (64.2 IP, 119 xFIP-)
After pitching brilliantly at both Double- and Triple-A this season, left-hander Nik Turley is expected to make his major-league debut this afternoon for the Minnesota Twins. Drafted originally by the Yankees in 2008, Turley has been employed by Boston, San Francisco, and Somerset (of the independent Atlantic League) in the meantime. Signed by the Twins as a minor-league free agent this past offseason, Turley has now recorded strikeout and walk rates of 41.2% and 7.4%, respectively, over roughly 50 innings. That performance has earned him a place atop the arbitrarily calculated Fringe Five Scoreboard curated by the present author.

If his minor-league starts are any indication, Turley will throw a combination of fastball and curveball almost exclusively. The former sits in the low 90s and he often works it to the top part of the zone to complement the latter one. Both sorts of pitches are featured in what follows — namely, video footage documenting some of Gleyber Torres’s whiffs against the Turley from last Tuesday.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

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NERD Game Scores for June 10, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Cincinnati at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Wojciechowski (14.0 IP, 122 xFIP-) vs. Wood (48.0 IP, 57 xFIP-)
Over just eight starts (and 10 appearances total), left-hander Alex Wood has already recorded the WAR figure (roughly two wins, whether calculated by FIP or ERA) one would expect from an average starter over the course of an entire season. If he performs at a similar level over the next two-thirds of the year, he’ll have supplied production equivalent to three average starting pitchers. Would it be right, in that case, to regard him as one man or three men? “Both,” is one possible answer.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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NERD Game Scores for June 8, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at New York NL | 19:05 ET
Price (12.0 IP, 99 xFIP-) vs. Pineda (64.2 IP, 79 xFIP-)
The Yankees have recorded the top BaseRuns record in the majors not, as has frequently been the case in the past, on the strength of aging relics but rather on promising young players.

Regard, the club’s top-five players by WAR this year, featuring four players aged 27 or younger:

Top-Five Yankees by WAR, 2017
Name Age PA Off Def WAR
1 Aaron Judge 25 229 22.3 0.2 3.1
2 Aaron Hicks 27 179 14.9 1.7 2.3
3 Brett Gardner 33 231 8.9 0.3 1.7
4 Didi Gregorius 27 147 4.2 3.5 1.3
5 Starlin Castro 27 241 6.3 -2.6 1.2

This evening, the team’s strong corps of position players — which currently ranks fourth in the majors by WAR — is complemented by Michael Pineda. Still a couple years shy of 30 himself, Pineda continues to control the strike zone like few other pitchers in the league.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for June 7, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Los Angeles NL | 15:10 ET
Strasburg (74.1 IP, 79 xFIP-) vs. Kershaw (83.0 IP, 65 xFIP-)
Once again, the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm confirms what most sentient beings could have determined for themselves — namely, in this case, that a game featuring two of the sport’s top pitchers might possesses some interest for viewers. The projections suggest that, at this point, Stephen Strasburg is likely to record the highest WAR of his career, whether one calculates that figure with FIP or runs allowed. He’s excelled by either version. As for Clayton Kershaw, he isn’t expected to post a career year and yet he remains one of the majors’ best pitchers.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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NERD Game Scores: Dinelson Lamet’s Third

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
San Diego at Arizona | 21:40 ET
Lamet (10.0 IP, 75 xFIP-) vs. Ray (69.0 IP, 84 xFIP-)
Beethoven’s third — known as the Heroic Symphony — marked the beginning of his “creative middle-period,” according to a source familiar with the situation. As for what Dinelson Lamet’s third will mark, this is uncertain. His first two have been excellent, however. Over 10.0 innings, the 24-year-old right-hander has recorded nearly a 40% strikeout rate, sitting at roughly 96 mph with his fastball.

Here’s an example of not his fastball, but his slider, with which pitch he’s recorded a swing and miss 20% of the time:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for June 5, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at Cincinnati | 19:10 ET
Martinez (73.0 IP, 82 xFIP-) vs. Wojciechowski (8.0 IP, 151 xFIP-)
The Toronto-Oakland game receives the same score as this St. Louis-Cincinnati contest according to the author’s defective calculus; however, it also feature two left-handed starters. The positioning of the A’s center-field camera tends to distort the movement of a left-hander’s pitches, the ball effectively leaving the pitcher’s hand at the extreme left-hand side of a shot, traveling the entire breadth of the screen, and arriving at the plate on the right-hand side of the shot. The camera in Cincinnati isn’t superior, but the Cards-Reds game offers two right-handers instead — and also the Reds’ offense, which remains the second best in the majors.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for June 4, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Toronto | 13:07 ET
Severino (61.1 IP, 67 xFIP-) vs. Stroman (68.2 IP, 81 xFIP-)
Responsible for yesterday’s most compelling game, the Yankees and Blue Jays conspire to offer today’s most compelling, as well, according to the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm. Of particular interest probably is Luis Severino, who’s been one of the majors’ top pitchers by the most relevant measures — including, for example, strikeout rate (12th out of 92 qualifiers), walk rate (21st), park-adjusted xFIP (fifth) among others.

Here’s video footage featuring three of Severino’s sliders from his most recent start:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for June 3, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Toronto | 13:07 ET
Montgomery (50.1 IP, 107 xFIP-) vs. Biagini (42.0 IP, 76 xFIP-)
So far this season, Yankees hitters have produced a collective 115 wRC+, the second-best mark among all major-league clubs. Among Yankees teams from recent history, that 115 figure would represent the organization’s top mark since the 2009 club produced a 117 wRC+. That 2009 version of the Yankees recorded the American League’s most wins and most Pythagorean wins en route to a world championship. Where the 2009 offense was heavily dependent on well compensated free agents such as Johnny Damon and Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, however, this club has benefited considerably from the work of Aaron Hicks.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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