Archive for NERD

NERD Game Scores for June 1, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Cleveland | 12:10 ET
Cotton (43.2 IP, 120 xFIP-) vs. Kluber (37.1 IP, 87 xFIP-)
The 2017 season hasn’t begun for Jharel Cotton in the way that leading experts like the author would have predicted. As a leading expert, I assumed that his plus-plus changeup alone would lead to a distinctly above-average strikeout rate. So far, however, he’s produced almost a precisely average strikeout rate. It’s always surprising when leading experts are wrong. Look no further than this situation involving Jharel Cotton and a leading expert.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for May 31, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Milwaukee at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Guerra (8.2 IP, 98 xFIP-) vs. deGrom (64.0 IP, 68 xFIP-)
Because the author himself wasn’t aware, it’s possible that at least one reader isn’t currently aware of how good Jacob deGrom has been so far this season — in particular at missing bats. Among the league’s 92 qualified pitchers, he’s recorded the second-lowest contact rate (68.1%), the fourth-highest swinging-strike rate (15.3%), and the third-highest overall strikeout rate (32.2%). There’s obviously quite a lot of interaction between those metrics; in each case, however, one is forced to reach the conclusion that Jacob deGrom is missing a lot of bats.

By what means is he doing it? Largely by recording much higher whiff rates on every pitch. Regard, deGrom’s repertoire from 2016 versus the current season (data care of Brooks Baseball):

Jacob deGrom’s Whiff Rate by Pitch, 2016 vs. -17
Pitch Type 2016 Count 2016 Wiffs 2017 Count 2017 Whiffs Whiff Diff
Fourseam 989 12.3% 444 18.2% 5.9%
Sinker 412 5.6% 151 11.9% 6.3%
Change 261 21.8% 93 20.4% -1.4%
Slider 434 12.9% 268 16.4% 3.5%
Curve 254 10.6% 84 14.3% 3.7%
SOURCE: Brooks Baseball

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio or New York NL TV.

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NERD Game Scores for May 30, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at San Diego | 22:10 ET
Butler (14.0 IP, 121 xFIP-) vs. Lamet (5.0 IP, 66 xFIP-)
San Diego right-hander Dinelson Lamet made his major-league debut last Thursday and was excellent in pretty much all the ways one could expect a pitcher to be excellent. He produced an 8:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 20 batters (box). He conceded just a lone run. He sat in the mid-90s with his fastball. He recorded whiff rates of roughly 20% with both his slider and changeup. (League average for both is typically around 15%.) He merits attention and considerable attention, is the point.

Here’s an example of both the fastball and changeup — to strike out Michael Conforto in the first and fifth innings, respectively:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL Television.

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NERD Game Scores for May 29, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Cleveland | 16:10 ET
Mengden (Season Debut) vs. Carrasco (58.1 IP, 80 xFIP-)
According to the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm, there are no games of great distinction today. David Price’s season debut might possess interest for some; the curiously successful D-backs — a club that’s produced nearly two wins by means of baserunning alone — might appeal to others. As for this game between Oakland and Cleveland, it features the season debut of Daniel Mengden, a pitcher who’s produced very strong statistical indicators in the upper minors over the last couple years and actually showed some promise in 14 major-league starts last year.

Did Aristotle suggest that the act of contemplation is the greatest pleasure available to man? It sounds plausible. Whatever the case, the game facilitates the opportunity to contemplate Daniel Mengden and his prospects for the future.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for May 27, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
San Diego at Washington | 16:05 ET
Richard (62.2 IP, 83 xFIP-) vs. Strasburg (60.1 IP, 83 xFIP-)
When the author’s haphazardly calculated algorithm identified May 21st’s game between Arizona and San Diego as the day’s most promising largely on the basis of Clayton Richard’s presence, it appeared only to underscore how haphazardly calculated that same algorithm must be. What actually happened, though, is Richard conceded just a single run over nine innings while recording a 6:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio — all on just 96 pitches (box). To further understand what might be facilitating Richard’s success, consider reading this piece by Jeff Sullivan. Alternatively, consider surrendering to the dark unknown of the universe.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for May 26, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Milwaukee | 20:10 ET
Godley (25.2 IP, 85 xFIP-) vs. Guerra (3.0 IP, 60 xFIP-)
Right-hander Junior Guerra makes his first major-league appearance since departing from his Opening Day start with a calf injury. He pitches for a Milwaukee club that resides much closer to the top of the NL’s centermost division than one would have reasonably assumed back on April 3rd — to face a much more competitive Arizona club than one would have expected at that time, as well.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for May 25, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
San Diego at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Lamet (MLB Debut) vs. deGrom (55.2 IP, 70 xFIP-)
This game appears likely to represent the major-league debut of San Diego right-hander Dinelson Lamet. Overshadowed a bit in a deep and talented Padres system, Lamet has produced promising statistical indicators as a professional — including last season when he recorded strikeout and walk rates of 29.2% and 9.9%, respectively, as a 23-year-old at Double-A. He’s recorded one of the best strikeout rates across all of Triple-A this season.

As for the actual physical tools, it doesn’t appear as though arm speed represents any sort of impediment to success for Lamet. He sat at 95 mph during a spring-training appearance at a stadium equipped with pitch-tracking technology and nearly touched 98 during that appearance. Lead prospect Eric Longenhagen analyst also has some praise for Lamet’s slider. The flaws, according to Longenhagen? Command and the near absence of a changeup. Were one inclined, he or she could monitor Lamet’s start with those weaknesses in mind. Were one not inclined, he or she could do anything else, too.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

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NERD Game Scores for May 24, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Cincinnati at Cleveland | 18:10 ET
Bonilla (18.1 IP, 116 xFIP-) vs. Bauer (44.2 IP, 81 xFIP-)
By each of those three variables that inform run-prevention beyond the three included in expected FIP, Bauer has fared almost as poorly as possible. Among qualified pitchers, he’s conceded nearly the most home runs per fly ball. He’s allowed nearly the most hits per ball in play. He’s stranded nearly the fewest runners who’ve reached base against him. To observe Trevor Bauer is to observe a plaything of the arbitrary. It is to observe… ourselves!

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for May 23, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Cincinnati | 19:10 ET
Carrasco (52.0 IP, 71 xFIP-) vs. Garrett (40.0 IP, 110 xFIP-)
Rookie Amir Garrett isn’t the reason this game has received today’s highest rating according to the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm. A combination of Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco and a surprisingly strong Reds club — one which has produced the league’s most defensive runs, for example — is largely responsible for that. A recent exploit of Garrett’s deserves attention, however, and this isn’t the least reasonable place to supply that attention.

At the beginning of May, Garrett was demoted briefly to Triple-A. While there, he made a single appearance, just two innings against White Sox affiliate Charlotte. He faced six total batters over those two innings. What the video here documents is the last pitch of all six plate appearances.

What did Amir Garrett do? Struck out everyone he faced, is what. Now, his deed has been recorded here — if not for posterity, then at least for 20 minutes or an hour.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for May 22, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at New York AL | 19:05 ET
Vargas (48.2 IP, 95 xFIP-) vs. Pineda (47.1 IP, 66 xFIP-)
Michael Pineda continues to possess an arm constructed of electricity or something like electricity. Consider: he’s recorded the seventh-highest fastball velocity among the league’s 94 qualified pitchers and fifth-best swinging-strike rate among that same population. What else he’s done, though, is walk hardly anyone. Does he concede home runs with surprising frequency for a pitcher who otherwise exhibits signs of good command? Yes. That’s how the world is, though. Let’s not belabor it.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Kansas City Radio.

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