Today’s edition of Offseason Notes is a graph.

Because I’m painfully disatisfied with the present, I spend a lot of my time thinking about the future. And because I spend a lot of my time thinking about the future, I spend a lot of time thinking about baseball prospects. And because I spend a lot of time thinking about baseball prospects, I spend a lot of time reading scouting reports of baseball prospects — which form of literature (i.e. the scouting report) I consider more important than most of what else is available in the entire Western Canon.

In reading scouting reports, I freqently see it suggested — as regards pitchers — that height is important because it allows a pitcher to throw on a “downhill plane.” Frequently, in those cases where a pitcher throws on a downfill plane, it is also suggested that doing so will allow said pitcher to induce ground balls (and, in turn, prevent home runs) with more frequency.

I do not intend to dispute the logic of this reasoning — nor to suggest at all that this is a statement made by every author of the literary form known as the scouting report — however, knowing that right-hander Chris Young both (a) is 6’10” and (b) has a career ground-ball rate in the high-20%s, I grew curious.

Accordingly, I looked at both the the height and ground-ball rate of every pitcher with more than 150 batters faced (i.e. the sample threshold at which ground-ball rate becomes reliable), 2002-11.

Here is the result:

As one will note by the r-squared, there is basically no connection whatsoever between height and ground-ball rate (and some internet browsing reveals that David Gassko reached a similar conclusion at the Hardball Times in 2006). Of course, not every pitcher has the same angle of release: Tim Lincecum, for example, throws almost straight over the top, while Justin Masterson is the rare starter to throw from a sidearm angle. Generally speaking, however, while there might be some advantage to pitcher height and the ability to throw on a downhill plane, it isn’t showing up in ground-ball rates.

Thanks to Mr. Jeff Zimmerman for running the sweet query that provided the above date.

Oakland Coliseum, minutes before first pitch.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Projecting: ZiPS for Oakland
2. Unhelpful Video: Tom Milone Homers
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Texas Television

Projecting: ZiPS for Oakland
Dan Szymborski has published his ZiPS projections for the Oakland A’s. Below are some of the notable ones, accompanied by very rough WAR projections (for hitters per 600 plate appearances and pitchers per 200 innings). All numbers assume major-league competition. OPS+ and ERA+ are park-adjusted.

Seth Smith, RF, 29: .245/.322/.408, 97 OPS+, 1.7 WAR600
Smith, acquired this offseason in a trade that sent right-hander Guillermo Moscoso and left-hander Josh Outman to Colorado, isn’t interesting in and of him self, but rather because his 97 OPS+ represents the highest projected mark on the entire Oakland roster. As Szymborski notes, “[T]he offense is going to be god-awful.” Having said that, both Coco Crisp (2.4 WAR600) and Kurt Suzuki (3.3 WAR600) are likely to be more valuable relative to their positions than Smith.

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The Klaw!

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Prospecting: Keith Law’s Top-100 Prospect List
2. Video: Hak-Ju Lee and Julio Teheran
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Tampa Bay Television

Prospecting: Keith Law’s Top-100 Prospect List
Keith Law has published his top-100 prospect list for 2012. (Insider only.)

Here are some notes on same:

• Regarding the top-est of the top prospects, they’re all generally where you’d expect. Law ranks Mike Trout first of the Trout-Bryce Harper–Matt Moore triumvirate. Manny Machado at fourth overall is probably slightly higher than on other lists you’ll see, but not particularly so. Atlanta right-handed prospect Julio Teheran at 18th overall is decidedly lower than on other lists. (Teheran was, for example, ranked fourth, fourth, fourth, and sixth, respectively, by Baseball America’s Jim Callis, J.J. Cooper, Will Lingo, and John Manuel on their top-50 lists from the BA Prospect Handbook.)

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Various Farm Rankings
2. Projecting: ZiPS for Texas
3. Video: Mike Olt in AFL Rising Stars Game

Various Farm Rankings
With many prospect lists having already been completed, or at least nearing completion, a few sites/publications have released farm, or organizational talent, rankings. Here are some notable top fives.

Baseball America
This is from their handbook, which means (I think) that it’s from Decemeber, which means that it doesn’t account for the trade that sent A.J. Cole, Tom Milone, Derek Norris, and Brad Peacock to Oakland for Gio Gonzalez.

1. Washington Nationals
2. Texas Rangers
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Toronto Blue Jays

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Even without his excellent secondary pitchers, Stephen Strasburg would probably be decent.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Table: Starting Pitcher xFIP by Fastball Velocity, 2002-11
2. Projecting: ZiPS for Miami
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Seattle Television

Table: Starting Pitcher xFIP by Fastball Velocity, 2002-11
Over the last couple days, I published a two–part piece looking both at (a) the accomplishment that is Michael Pineda’s combination of fastball velocity and control and (b) which pitchers from the high minors last season were capable of at least approximating Pineda’s 2010 in Double- and Triple-A.

As part of the second piece, I included a table that looked at xFIP by different “buckets” of velocity — from less-than 85 mph, increasing incrementally by 1 mph all the way to greater-than 95 mph. What might not have been entirely obvious is that the data sample included only the 612 starting pitchers from 2002 to ’11 who walked 7% or fewer batters.

So, below, I’m publishing another version of that table with the full sample of 1708 player seasons. This is xFIP by velocity for every pitcher, 2002-11, who threw 50 or more innings and made at least half of his appearances as a starter. The # sign is the number of player seasons, 2002-11, in that particular bucket; the xFIP is the average xFIP of all the player seasons in that bucket; and STD is the standard deviation of xFIP for the player seasons in that bucket.

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Today’s edition of Offseason Notes concerns the Caribbean Series entirely.

Escogido Wins Caribbean Series
Despite losing 7-0 to Venezuelan entry Tigres de Aragua, Dominican side Leones del Escogido clinched the Caribbean Series last night with the 4-3 loss of their only mathematical competitor, Mexico’s Yaquis de Obregon, to Puerto Rican club Indios de Mayaguez. (Scoreboard.)

In fact, Obregon was winning their game 3-2 heading into the bottom of the eighth, but conceded one run each in the eighth and ninth innings to lose the game.

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The curiously formidable Estadio Quisqueya.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Caribbean Series Notes
2. Video Tribute to Caribbean Series, Set to AC/DC’s “Highway to Hell”
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: San Francisco Television

Caribbean Series Notes
Current Standings
Here are the current standings of the Caribbean Series, after four days of games, presented in a sortable HTML table.

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Not Joe Saunders.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Caribbean Series Notes
2. Projecting: ZiPS for Arizona
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: San Diego Television

Caribbean Series
Scores from Yesterday
Puerto Rican team Mayaguez defeated Venezuelan Winter League champion Aragua, 3-1 (box).

Escogido of the Dominican Winter League defeated Mexican Pacific League side Obregon, 2-1 (box).

Notes on Those Games
• Mayaguez right-hander Nelson Figueroa did this: 6.2 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 0 HR.
• There was precisely one extra-base hit between the two games: Mayaguez center fielder Jesus Feliciano’s second-inning ground-rule double.
• Right-hander Jairo Asencio recorded the save for Escogido, striking out two in an inning of work. Asencio was the boss of the DWL for much of the season, finishing second on the SCOUT pitching leaderboard.

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Today’s edition of Offseason Notes concerns the Caribbean Series entirely.

Programming Note: Caribbean Series Begins Today
As noted previously in this column, the Caribbean Series begins today in Santo Domingo.

The first game, between Aragua (of the Venezuelan Winter League) and Mayaguez (Puerto Rican Winter League) begins at 1:45pm ET. Obregon (Mexican Pacific League) and Escogido (Dominican Winter League) play later in the day, at 5:55pm ET.

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This same truck once brought Jose Lopez from Seattle, WA to Peoria, AZ.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Projecting: ZiPS for Cleveland
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: St. Louis Television

Assorted Headlines
Teheran and Delgado Possible Bullpen Options
Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez told David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution on Tuesday that top pitching prospects Julio Teheran and/or Randall Delgado would be bullpen options in the event that they didn’t, either one of them, make the opening-day rotation. John Sickels recently ranked the pair first and third overall in the Atlanta system; Baseball America has them in the spots. The clubs already has what would appear to be five able starters in Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor.

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