Will Justin Upton continue his assault on regional purveyors of fast food?
This edition of One Night Only contains:
1. Previews for four games, all featuring Flawless Information™ — that is, sexy, updated Team NERD scores and sexy, updated ZiPS projections.
2. A complete table of those same Team NERD scores, now with totally infallible UZRs.
3. A video you can watch at home or office.
Today’s edition of One Night Only contains:
1. Previews of two games, with sexy, updated Team NERD scores and sexy, updated ZiPS projections.
2. Notes on a third game you shouldn’t watch.
3. A poll on what’s the most depressing thing about the current iteration of the Twins.
This edition of One Night Only contains sexy, updated Team NERD scores (without the POFF variable).
Friday, April 15th
Chicago Nationals (3) at Colorado (9) | 8:40pm ET
• Matt Garza pitches tonight for the Cubs.
• He has a 5.68 ERA through two starts, but has also done this: 12.2 IP, 14.21 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, .541 BABIP, 40.0 GB%, 1.28 xFIP.
• What?
• Also, don’t look this second, but Troy Tulowitzki’s doing this through 57 PA: .364/.491/.909 (.273 BABIP), .552 wOBA, 235 wRC+.
• Without defense included, he’s posted a 1.3 WAR. Already.
Note: the numbers you see for pitchers are the updated ZiPS projections for 2011, which take into account early season performance and which are available on every player card.
Philadelphia at Washington | 7:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Phillies: Cliff Lee
201.1 IP, 8.00 K/9, 1.25 BB/9, 2.73 FIP
Nationals: Jordan Zimmermann
98.1 IP, 7.41 K/9, 3.20 BB/9, 3.67 FIP
Notes
• Here’s a thing: Jordan Zimmermann’s original ZiPS projection was for 89.0 innings.
• Now it’s for 98.1 IP — as you can see.
• Here’s another thing: Zimmermann has a 2.79 FIP through (the very small sample of) 11.1 innings. His xFIP? 4.92.
• Which most represents his expected ERA?
• The suspense is terrific.
Notes: Cliff Lee Edition
• While, cosmetically, Lee’s performance to date looks poor (1-1, 7.48 ERA), he’s actually been The Real Cliff Lee.
• To wit: 10.1 IP, 12.19 K/9, 0.87 BB/9, 51.3 GB%, 2.17 xFIP.
• The two main conspirators in his inflated ERA? A .433 BABIP and 51.3 LOB%.
With six games, today’s edition of One Night Only is ideal for the indecisive — or, maybe it isn’t.
Texas at Detroit | 1:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rangers: Dave Bush
157.0 IP, 5.50 K/9, 3.04 BB/9, 4.86 FIP, 119 FIP- (ZiPS)
Tigers: Max Scherzer
170.0 IP, 9.69 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 3.26 FIP, 80 FIP- (ZiPS)
Notes
• The Rangers have been successful in helping both C.J. Wilson and, in a smaller sample, Alexi Ogando transition from relief to starterdom.
• Today, Dave Bush — relegated to the bullpen — will attempt to make it three for pitching coach Mike Maddux.
• In math, it’s a well-known fact: three = a charm.
Today’s games prove what has long been suspected: you can have your druthers and eat them, too.
Oakland at Chicago Americans | 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Athletics: Trevor Cahill
194.7 IP, 5.50 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 4.43 FIP, 108 FIP- (ZiPS)
White Sox: Edwin Jackson
205.7 IP, 7.18 K/9, 3.50 BB/9, 4.42 FIP, 108 FIP- (ZiPS)
Regarding Trevor Cahill, Part I
A thing that, like, 55-year-old women say when they see something and are seriously impressed by it, is they say, “I watched it breathlessly.”
Regardless of your age and/or gender, breathlessness was the only reasonable reaction to the two-seam fastball Cahill was throwing in his last appearance at Toronto — a game during which he posted this line: 8.0 IP, 27 TBF, 7 K, 0 BB, 11 GB on 20 batted balls (55.0%).
Though the two-seamer got just two whiffs of the 54 Cahill threw, it was a great joy to watch. Per Texas Leaguers, the pitch averaged close to 11 inches of armside run and almost zero “rise” against Toronto — relative to league averages of 9.36 and 3.87 inches, respectively.
A brief inspection of Cahill’s use of the pitch in the chart below (against right-handed batters) reveals the righty’s main intent — mainly, to keep it low and outside:
Today’s edition of One Night Only features three games you should probably watch and one you probably shouldn’t.
Texas at Detroit | 1:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rangers: Alexi Ogando
64.1 IP, 9.38 K/9, 4.34 BB/9, 3.66 FIP, 90 FIP- (ZiPS)
Tigers: Justin Verlander
215.0 IP, 9.21 K/9, 2.80 BB/9, 2.94 FIP, 72 FIP- (ZiPS)
Notes
• This afternoon marks Alexi Ogando’s second start of the season — which, that’s also his second start ever.
• His first start, against the Mariners last week, was pretty much a success: 6.0 IP, 22 TBF, 4 K, 2 BB, 5 GB on 16 batted balls (31.3%).
• As we suspected might be the case — and as Tommy Rancel confirmed afterwards — Ogando’s change-up use (i.e. what most pitchers use to neutralize opposite-handed batters) was almost non-extant.
• Probably as a result, his splits even in this one game were significant: 5.02 xFIP versus lefties, 0.94 xFIP versus righties.
• Small sample! Small sample! Small sample!
Friday, April 8th
WAS (Jordan Zimmermann) at NYN (R.A. Dickey) | 4:10pm ET
• Jordan Zimmermann’s season debut wasn’t the rousing success this author suspected it would be;
• Regard: 6.0 IP, 25 TBF, 2 K, 3 BB, 7 GB on 20 batted balls (35.0 GB%);
• Still, he’s a young pitcher with a 3.64 xFIP in his 128.1 major-league innings.
• And, regardless, R.A. Dickey’s pitching;
• Which, that allows us to revisit this image (again, courtesy of reader Trambone at Amazin’ Avenue):
Below, please find three games arranged in chronological order, voted Best Kind of Order once again in 2011.
(Note: Today’s ZiPS projections include FIP-, which is a much less complicated thing than you might initially suspect. Basically, 100 is league average, lower is better.)
Oakland at Toronto | 12:37pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Athletics: Trevor Cahill
194.2 IP, 5.50 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 4.43 FIP, 108 FIP- (ZiPS)
Blue Jays: Ricky Romero
212.2 IP, 7.62 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 3.84 FIP, 94 FIP- (ZiPS)
Notes
• In his first start of the season, Trevor Cahill had eight strikeouts in just 4.2 innings.
• He also used his curve — generally regarded as excellent — about twice as much as he did during his average start last season.
• “Those two things are totally related,” you’re maybe thinking.
• “They’re actually probably not,” Chris Cwik just told us.
• He also told us his surname’s pronounced “Swick,” though, so maybe he can’t be trusted.
Keep One Night Only away from skin, eyes… and grown-ups! They’re the worst!
Los Angeles Americans at Tampa Bay | 1:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Angels: Dan Haren
224.3 IP, 8.55 K/9, 1.81 BB/9, 3.23 FIP, 117 ERA+ (ZiPS)
Rays: Jeremy Hellickson
135.7 IP, 7.89 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, 3.42 FIP, 118 ERA+ (ZiPS)
On Jeremy Hellickson
Today marks the season debut of Jeremy Hellickson, one of the many PYTs the Rays’ farm system has to offer its adoring public. Hellickson made his major league debut last year after spending most of the season showing International Leaguers what’s what.
