This marks the AL version of the post from earlier today, itself an attempt to catalog recently promoted players and inform the reader as to when said players might be seen.

As with that — and also yesterday’s — installment, none of what follows ought to be regarded as official prospect mavening. Bryan Smith, just yesterday, wrote two pieces about our very newest Major Leaguers. As is typical, Smith’s work offers things like “information” and “analysis” — i.e. a pair of traits far beyond the purview of the present work.

For each series, I’ve included (a) the start times of the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday games, respectively, (b) the name, age, and position of each respective call-up, (c) said call-ups’ rankings both on Marc Hulet’s top-10 and Baseball America’s top-30 preseason organizational prospect lists, (d) the players’ lines at their most recent minor league stop, and (e) any notes relevant to better enjoying said players’ promotions.

(wOBA+, or park-adjusted wOBA relative to league average, courtesy of StatCorner.)

Toronto at New York | 1:05pm, 1:05pm, 1:05pm
Blue Jays
JP Arencibia, 24, C
Hulet / BA: 4 / 2
Line: 459 PA, .301/.359/.626 (.306 BABIP), .412 wOBA, 115 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: First, before you salivate all over the numbers, consider the team batting line for the Las Vegas 51s: .295/.360/.479. That’s like a .370 wOBA, and is most assuredly the product — at least in part — of park effects. Still, as the young catcher’s wOBA+ suggests, Arencibia has provided above-average offense this year after taking a step back in 2009.

Yankees
Notes on Greg Golson available in yesterday’s edition.

Tampa Bay at Baltimore | 7:05pm, 7:05pm, 1:35pm
Rays
Rocco Baldelli, 28, Handsome Man
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 48 PA, .273/.292/.477 (.303 BABIP), .325 wOBA, 90 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: As someone on the Twitters recently noted (I forget, sorry), the Rays now have two ex-minor league coaches on their roster. And, yes, I recognize that Baldelli isn’t a prospect, but I also understand this: if you’re not excited about the Woonsocket Rocket, you’re not excited about life.

Desmond Jennings, 23, CF
Hulet / BA: 1 / 1
Line: 458 PA, .278/.362/.393 (.327 BABIP), .355 wOBA, 105 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: The idea is that he’s Carl Crawford, Part Deux. He definitely seems to have the “running fast” part down: Jennings was 37-for-41 on stolen base attempts at Durham before his promotion. TotalZone, per Sean’s Smith Baseball Projection, has him as a +4 fielder in center, which means he could be something like +10 to +15 fielder in left. Crawford, meanwhile, has +15.8 UZR/150 in left for his career.

Orioles
Notes on Brandon Snyder in yesterday’s edition.

Chicago at Boston | 7:10pm, 7:10pm, 1:35pm
White Sox
Tyler Flowers, 24, C
Hulet / BA: 1 / 2
Line: 412 PA, .220/.334/.434 (.283 BABIP), .339 wOBA, 100 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: A.J. Pierzynski‘s contract runs out after 2010, and Flowers is likely to replace him. Reports on his defense seem conflicting, but he seems rather adept at absolutely crushing the ball, posting ISOs of around .200 or greater throughout the minors.

Gregory Infante, 23, RHP
Hulet / BA: 9 / NR
Line: 26.1 IP, 11.62 K/9, 4.10 BB/9, 2.10 FIP (Double-A)
Notes: Dan Santaromita over at Future Sox has aggregated a couple scouting reports on Infante, saying that he (i.e. Infante, not Santaromita) throws an 94-98 mph fastball and demonstrates flashes of talent. Will probably be a member of Sox’ bullpen next year, where he’ll almost definitely drag down the collective BMI of Chicago’s relief corps.

Red Sox
None.

Texas at Minnesota | 8:10pm, 4:10pm, 2:10pm
Rangers
None. (Unless maybe you count Pedro Strop. But I’m not doing that.)

Twins
None.

Detroit at Kansas City | 8:10pm, 7:10pm, 2:10pm
Tigers
Notes on 30-year-old catcher Max St. Pierre in yesterday’s edition.

Royals
Lucas May, 25, C
Hulet / BA: NR / 17 (in Dodgers’ system)
Line: 285 PA, .296/.352/.496 (.347 BABIP), .369 wOBA, 99 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Hey, this guy’s interesting. The Dodgers converted him from shortstop to outfield to catcher — then traded him to KC in July as part of the Scott Podsednik deal. Those numbers there are from his spell in Las Vegas. He actually performed even better (.275/.362/.516) at Triple-A Omaha with a lower BABIP (.294) and higher wOBA+ (119). With Kendall out, he’ll probably split time with Brayan Pena, which probably gives the Royals the coolest catching duo in the majors.

Los Angeles at Oakland | 10:05pm, 4:10pm, 4:05pm
Angels
None.

Athletics
Notes on relief pitcher Justin James in yesterday’s edition.

Cleveland at Seattle | 10:10pm, 10:15pm, 4:10pm
Indians
None.

Mariners
None.

This edition of One Night Only continues what yesterday’s started — namely, as an attempt to catalog recently promoted players and inform the reader as to when said players might be seen.

As with yesterday’s installment, none of what follows ought to be regarded as official prospect mavening. Bryan Smith, just yesterday, wrote two pieces about our very newest Major Leaguers. As is typical, Smith’s work offers things like “information” and “analysis” — i.e. a pair of traits far beyond the purview of the present work.

Unlike yesterday’s post, this one previews not only a single night of games, but a long-weekend’s worth. For that reason, the reader will see three times listed after each match-up. These are the games times for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, respectively.

For each series, I’ve included (a) the name, age, and position of each respective call-up, (b) said call-ups’ rankings both on Marc Hulet’s top-10 and Baseball America’s top-30 preseason organizational prospect lists, (c) the players’ lines at their most recent minor league stop, and (d) any notes relevant to better enjoying said players’ promotions.

An American League edition will appear in these pages around the noon hour today.

(wOBA+, or park-adjusted wOBA relative to league average, courtesy of StatCorner.)

New York at Chicago | 2:20pm, 1:05pm, 2:20pm
Mets
Mike Nickeas, 27, C
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 318 PA, .283/.403/.396 (.323 BABIP), .372 wOBA, 112 wOBA+ (Double-A)
Notes: Nickeas is technically getting called up from Triple-A Buffalo, but only had 26 PAs there. And though I’m sure he’s one of the nicest guys around, he very probably won’t end up on Kris Liakos’ list of the best Greek baseball players.

Notes on Lucas Duda available in yesterday’s edition.

Cubs
None.

Washington at Pittsburgh | 7:05pm, 7:05pm, 1:35pm
Nationals
Daniel Espinosa, 23, SS/2B
Hulet / BA: 4 / 5
Line: 108 PA, .295/.349/.463 (.338 BABIP), .345 wOBA, 104 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Bryan Smith discussed Espinosa in these pages yesterday, suggesting that Espinosa would likely move to second base, with Ian Desmond sticking at short. Hulet’s preseason write-up of him includes the line, “Taking to the wood… has been good for Espinosa.” If you’re a male with an emotional age of 22 or under, that’s probably pretty hilarious.

Pirates
None.

Milwaukee at Philadelphia | 7:05pm, 7:05pm, 1:35pm
Brewers
Jeremy Jeffress, 22, RHP
Hulet / BA: NR / 21
Line: 14.1 IP, 9.42 K/9, 1.26 BB/9, 1.73 FIP (Triple-A)
Notes: As Smith noted yesterday, Jeffress has received two drug-related suspensions. The latter of those, 100 days, lasted till June of this year, which is the reason he’s only thrown 32.1 innings this season. Wisconsiner Jack Moore is excited about Jeffress’s velo, and so can you be.

Phillies
None.

Atlanta at Florida | 7:10pm, 7:10pm, 12:10pm
Braves
Notes on J.C. Boscan and Freddie Freeman available in yesterday’s edition.

Marlins
Chris Hatcher, 25, C
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 293 PA, .202/.261/.277 (.293 BABIP), .251 wOBA, 81 wOBA+ (Double-A)
Notes: Not entirely sure what his defensive reputation is, but I’m guessing it’s good, as his offensive numbers are pretty mediocre.

Cincinnati at St. Louis | 8:15pm, 4:10pm, 2:15pm
Reds
Yonder Alonso, 23, 1B/LF
Hulet / BA: 1 / 2
Line: 445 PA, .296/.355/.470 (.339 BABIP), .365 wOBA, 108 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Has been rated 35th and 45th the last two years, respectively, on Baseball America’s top-100 prospect list. Hulet rated him 47th overall this past March. When asked if he’d still rank Alonso in the same spot, Hulet responded, “Alonso’s value is down but not massively… He’s probably still a top-100 guy.”

Notes on Aroldis Chapman available in every single place on the internet.

Cardinals
None.

Houston at Arizona | 9:40pm, 8:10pm, 4:10pm
Astros
Brian Bogusevic, 26, OF
Hulet / BA: NR / 21
Line: 575 PA, .277/.364/.414 (.329 BABIP), .359 wOBA, 103 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Awesome. Bogusevic was originally drafted as a left-handed pitcher with the 24th-overall pick in the 2005 draft. Unfortunately, he kinda bit. Luckily, he was also a good hitter in college (at Tulane) and so, in July of 2008, moved to the outfield. Survey says he may not be so bad there. His contact rate is slightly up from last season and he’s 23-of-24 on stolen base attempts.

Henry Villar, 23, RHP
Hulet / BA: NR / 27
Line: 102.0 IP, 6.00 K/9, 3.71 BB/9, 4.56 FIP (Double-A)
Notes: Villar has split time between starting and relieving this year. Per StatCorner, he’s had groundball rates in the 47%-50% area. Would have to cut walks to make rotation, likely, as he doesn’t feature swing-and-miss stuff.

Diamondbacks
None. (Although, yesterday, Bryan Smith discussed the recently recalled Brandon Allen a little bit. Allen had 116 PA last year. Additionally, he murdercated a Luke Gregerson offering two nights ago, and made a nice catch, too. Highlights of both available by clicking here.)

Colorado at San Diego | 10:05pm, 4:10pm, 4:05pm
Rockies
Notes on Christopher Nelson available in yesterday’s edition.

Padres
Cory Luebke, 25, LHP
Hulet / BA: 7 / 6
Line: 57.2 IP, 6.87 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, 3.91 FIP (Triple-A)
Notes: Luebke will actually start tonight’s (Friday’s) game. He also pitched 56.1 IP at Double-A San Antonio this year, posting a 2.84 FIP. Is distant relative of Officer Krupke from West Side Story. No joke.

San Francisco at Los Angeles | 10:10pm, 10:10pm, 8:05pm
Giants
Darren Ford, 24, CF
Hulet / BA: NR / 13
Line: 516 PA, .251/.315/.365 (.314 BABIP), .313 wOBA, 97 wOBA+ (Double-A)
Notes: Was 37-of-52 on stolen base opportunities at Richmond (home of the Flying Squirrels). Also, this is interesting, per BA’s Prospect Handbook: apparently, the Giants tried to turn Ford into a switch-hitter, beginning two falls ago. Apparently, they stopped the experiment last summer.

Dodgers
None.

As smarter fans everywhere will already know, yesterday marked the beginning of the season of Roster Expansion on the MLB calendar.

With that in mind, this edition of One Night Only seeks to prepare the reader for which recently promoted players (with little or no MLB service time) he (or she) might see in tonight’s respective games.

Note, please, that none of what follows ought to be regarded as official prospect mavening. Undoubtedly, at some point, either Marc Hulet or Bryan Smith will address the relative worth of one or more of the players treated here. Rather, allow this to serve merely as a brief catalog of players you might see in action this evening.

For each game, I’ve included (a) the name, age, and position of the recent call-up, (b) said call-up’s ranking both on Marc Hulet’s top-10 and Baseball America’s top-30 preseason organizational prospect lists, (c) the player’s line at his most recent minor league stop, and (d) any notes relevant to better enjoying said player’s promotion.

(wOBA+, or park-adjusted wOBA relative to league average, courtesy of StatCorner.)

New York Nationals at Atlanta | 7:10pm ET
Mets
Lucas Duda, 24, LF/1B
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 290 PA, .314/.389/.610 (.346 BABIP), .424 wOBA, 124 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Has the best league- and park-adjusted numbers on this list. Distinguishes himself, as well, by specifically not being Jeff Francoeur.

Braves
J.C. Boscan, 30, C
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 248 PA, .250/.324/.368 (.305 BABIP), .314 wOBA, 94 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Has been in the minors for longer than Jackie Moore’s been alive.

Freddie Freeman, 20, 1B
Hulet / BA: 2 / 2
Line: 519 PA, .319/.378/.518 (.351 BABIP), .387 wOBA, 117 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Most highly rated player on this list. With that name he’s got, could definitely start a smooth jazz band if baseball doesn’t work out.

Philadelphia at Colorado | 7:10pm ET
Phillies
None.

Rockies
Christopher Nelson, 24, SS/2B
Hulet / BA: NR / 29
Line: 356 PA, .317/.379/.498 (.348 BABIP), .384 wOBA, 107 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Actually had like 6 PAs back in mid-June. Total Zone doesn’t appear to like his defense. Turns out, was not lead singer of hair band Nelson.

Oakland at New York Americans | 1:05pm ET
Athletics
Justin James, 28, RHP
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 19.2 IP, 12.81 K/9, 4.12 BB/9, 1.88 FIP (Triple-A)
Notes: He appears to induce ground balls at a fairly steady pace, too. Could be interesting to watch.

Yankees
Greg Golson, 24, CF/RF
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 455 PA, .265/.316/.417 (.324 BABIP), .328 wOBA, 97 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Golson actually has 12 career major league PAs. Is 17-for-21 stealng this year.

Boston at Baltimore | 7:05pm ET
Red Sox
None.

Orioles
Brandon Snyder, 23, 1B
Hulet / BA: 6 / 6
Line: 376 PA, .257/.324/.407 (.338 BABIP), .326 wOBA, 103 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Was originally a catcher. Hit .343/.421/.597 (.396 BABIP) with a 128 wOBA+ last year at Double-A.

Detroit at Minnesota | 8:10pm ET
Tigers
Max St. Pierre, 30, C
Hulet / BA: NR / NR
Line: 147 PA, .300/.356/.469 (.318 BABIP), .356 wOBA, 108 wOBA+ (Triple-A)
Notes: Has a shockingly similar profile to Boscan (above). Is from Quebec.

Twins
None.

Cleveland at Seattle | 10:10pm ET
Indians
None.

Mariners
None.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

Read the rest of this entry »

This edition of One Night Only knows which side its bread is buttered on.

(Games listed in order of likely awesomness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

Chicago Americans (5) at Cleveland (3) | 7:05 ET
Starting Pitchers
White Sox: Edwin Jackson (8)
162.1 IP, 7.65 K/9, 3.71 BB/9, .318 BABIP, 51.8% GB, 10.2% HR/FB, 3.97 xFIP

Indians: Justin Masterson (6)
151.1 IP, 6.78 K/9, 4.10 BB/9, .341 BABIP, 60.7% GB, 11.0% HR/FB, 4.23 xFIP

Manny Being Manny Traded via Waivers
Let’s be clear about one thing, America: this game is miles more interesting if newly acquired Manny Ramirez is playing in it. And let’s be clear about another thing, America: NERD doesn’t really have a way of accounting for this.

Or, at least not yet.

Maybe — how about this — maybe a game becomes an automatic 10 when one of the most talented, yet enigmatic, players of his era joins a team just on the fringe of playoff contention — a team that, for the entire season, has slotted a no-hit journeyman into the DH spot and also features a mouthy Latin whack job for a manager.

Cool?

Out of Left Field. Literally. Kind Of.
Though it’s become commonplace to say that the White Sox have effed themselves by fielding* Mark Kotsay at DH — and while, yes, Mark Kotsay, isn’t a good DH — it’s actually not the position at which they’ve failed hardest. Because, while Chicago’s DHs have posted a 92 OPS+ relative to the league average DH, the team’s left fielders (ahem, Juan Pierre) have posted only an 83 OPS+ relative to other left fielders. No, OPS+ isn’t perfect, and, yes, maybe Pierre picks up some overall runs via stolen bases and such. But it’s still bad, people.

Action, Jackson
Edwin Jackson, in case you didn’t know, has been good since joining the White Sox. Like, disgusting-good. Blam, line: 28.0 IP, 10.93 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 58.9% GB, 2.55 xFIP, 1.1 WAR. And he’s got 21 Ks over his last two starts.

*Not the precise word, obviously, but what’s better? Batting? Deploying?

Colorado (6) at San Francisco (4) | 10:15pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rockies: Esmil Rogers (9)
49.1 IP, 8.21 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, .393 BABIP, 48.1% GB, 6.5% HR/FB, 3.71 xFIP

Giants: Madison Bumgarner (7)
73.0 IP, 6.41 K/9, 2.34 BB/9, .322 BABIP, 44.8% GB, 10.9% HR/FB, 4.30 xFIP

Regression Alert
Esmil Rogers has exploded to the top of the NERD charts recently. Why’s he there? Let me count the ways.

1. Bad Luck. Despite an ERA of 5.66, Rogers is actually currently sporting only a 3.71 xFIP. Rocky pitchers will always have inflated-looking BABIPs — Coors has a BABIP about 20 points higher than league average — but his current number is far above what it ought to be.

2. Velocity. Rogers’ fastball is currently averaging 94.3 mph overall (and 93.7 mph as a starter). That’s faster than fastballs belonging to a whole bunch of guys typically classified as power pitchers, guys such as Josh Beckett, Mat Latos, Francisco Liriano, Brandon Morrow, and CC Sabathia.

3. Age. Rogers only just turned 25, which means he’s been 24 for the majority of the season, which means he’s on the youngish side of things. Also, besides a four-inning start last season, it’s his first real season in the majors.

Andres Torres Watch
Last Night (v Colorado): 4 PA, 2 K.

Entering Playing: .284/.366/.498 (.351 BABIP), .379 wOBA, 138 wRC+, 5.7 WAR (8th among hitters).

Andres Torres Watch (Totally Subjective Remix)
Andres Torres remains talented and handsome. I want him to be my power animal.

A Brief Critique of Dave Cameron
About two weeks ago, to celebrate the arrival of 2010 minor league stats to the site, our Full-Time Employee Dave Cameron wrote a brief article singing the praises of Luis Rodriguez, who, after years of serving as a sort of Quad-A utility infielder, is having a crazy season. To quote Cameron:

In 354 plate appearances, Rodriguez is hitting .296/.360/.502. That is not a typo – the diminutive middle infielder is outslugging Jesus Montero. A guy who has slapped the ball on the ground for most of his career, he’s already launched 15 home runs in the International League, and 31 of his 90 hits have gone for extra bases. He’s done this while maintaining his excellent bat control, as he again has more walks (34) than strikeouts (30).

Because I’m a human person, this story warms the cockles of my heart. Moreover, I celebrate our generally unassailable Editor for calling attention to Rodriguez’s achievement.

However, I do take umbrage at one of Cameron’s maneuvers, and it’s this: in a moment of poor judgment, Cameron opted to title his post “The Next Andres Torres?” Because it’s phrased as a question, I’ll provide the answer here post-haste:

No.

“Oh, but Carson,” maybe you’re saying, “Torres was also a career minor league who also improved considerably during what would otherwise be considered the end of his peak years.” To this I reply: “Sure, but is Luis Rodriguez anywhere near as handsome as Andres Torres?” Let’s check.

Conclusion: no way, friend.

Milwaukee (8) at Cincinnati (7) | 7:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Brewers: Yovani Gallardo (8)
149.0 IP, 9.97 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, .338 BABIP, 43.3% GB, 6.8% HR/FB, 3.42 xFIP

Reds: Aaron Harang (5)
100.1 IP, 6.73 K.9, 2.51 BB.9, .331 BABIP, 37.7% GB, 11.5% HR/FB, 4.33 xFIP

Just One Brief Note
This game marks the return of Aaron Harang from the DL. That’s what we in the industry refer to as “need to know” information.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

Read the rest of this entry »

This edition of One Night Only contains a semi-lengthy consideration of a fringe major leaguer.

In other words: P-A-R-T-Y.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

New York Nationals (3) at Atlanta (5) | 7:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Metropolitans: Pat Misch (10?)
18.0 IP, 3.50 K/9, 1.00 BB/9, .314 BABIP, 46.3% GB, 4.0% HR/FB, 4.55 xFIP

Braves: Jair Jurrjens (5)
95.0 IP, 6.25 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, .291 BABIP, 39.6% GB, 7.3% HR/FB, 4.52 xFIP

Pat Misch, Pat Misch Is on My List
You’ll notice, if you look down below at the full schedule of today’s games, that I gave Met starter Pat Misch an estimated NERD of only 6. At the time, I thought I was being liberal even with that assignation: Misch isn’t exactly what you’d call a “stuff” guy (currently sporting, for example, an average fastball velocity of 85.4 mph) and appears, at first glance, to be a serious candidate for the Quad-A (or just straight-up Triple-A) label.

Thing is, Misch does one thing really well, and that’s throw strikes. His strike rate of 66.5% through his first three starts would tie him for 11th place in that category — with Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton — of the 205 NERD-qualified starters. Nor does it mark a serious departure from his minor league numbers, which generally have him throwing strikes at about a 65% rate.

His strike-throwing profile is borne out in his line so far, which includes a 3.50 K/9 and 1.00 BB/9. In other words, he’s pitching to contact pretty seriously. And when a pitcher is conceding so much contact, the logical question to ask is, “What’s his groundball rate?” If it’s high, you’re probably talking about a serviceable (and, for now, cost-controlled) major league pitcher; if it’s low, you’re talking about John Wasdin, who’s called Way Back Wasdin not for nothing.

So, what’s Misch’s groundball rate?

Well, there are a couple-few answers to that. Like this one: “Through 174 major league innings, it’s 43.3%.” Or, like this other one: “Through 705.1 minor league innings, it’s 47.2%.” Thing is, we ought to be most interested in a third answer — i.e. what it’s likely to be going forward.

Because Misch has a considerably larger minor league resume, it’d be ideal to project his major league rates using at least some of his minor league data. Unfortunately, it’s not so easy as looking at major league equivalencies.

The Evolution of Groundball Rates
A couple weeks ago, Resident Prospect Maven Bryan Smith wrote an article all up in this piece called “The Evolution of Groundball Rates,” in which Smith looks at 18 current major leaguers and the differences between their minor and major league groundball rates.

After listing both sets of rates, Smith gives us this:

[It’s] interesting that half the players dropped their groundball rate between 3 and 7.5 percent between the minor and Major leagues. Those who attended FanGraphs Live heard the problems I have with using MLEs to project minor leaguers. While it would be easy to do this study with everyone in the MinorLeagueSplits era, create an average drop that we apply for everyone, I just don’t find it all that informative. If you want to assume a player drops about 5-5.5 percent when he reaches the Majors, you’ll probably be about right as often as you’re about wrong.

Essentially, what we learn from Smith — and he presents the numbers in that article if you wanna see — is that groundball rates don’t translate perfectly from the minors to the majors.

In other words, if we’re going to project Misch, it’ll require something more nuanced than just MLEs. It’ll require, ultimately, human input.

The Horse’s Mouth
On account of Bryan Smith is basically just sitting by his computer all the time, thinking about this exact subject, I decided to go ahead and ask him what’s the deal with Misch. Specifically, I asked this:

I’m curious as to how you view Pat Misch. In particular, I’m wondering how he might fit into the different categories you discussed in your piece on the evolution of groundball rates.

Per his Minor League Splits page, he appears to’ve settled in the high-40s and low-50s at the Triple-A level. At the same time, he’s working with only an 85-87 mph fastball.

Who’re his comps, you think?

And, specfically, this is what Smith replied:

One thing that doesn’t receive enough attention when thinking about groundball rates is command. I think most are guilty of assuming that GB% is correlated strictly with movement — the sinker with the most downward movement should yield the highest number of groundballs. But this isn’t the case, and it’s important to remember that commanding a pitch down in the zone is half (or more) of the battle. Misch’s stuff — both in terms of velocity and movement — aren’t special in the slightest, and he doesn’t have the unique build (and downward plane) of a guy like Doug Fister. But what they do share is amazing command, and there is significant value in that. I don’t think Misch will be able to sustain a 50% groundball rate, but I think his ability to spot his fastball below the belt will keep him on the better side of average going forward.

The Outlook on Misch
I’m not sure that Pat Misch is gonna ever be a world-beater of a starter. He strikes out very few batters, and that’s not the best of qualities for a major league pitcher to possess.

But he also seems to have the stuff to not walk batters and, within, reason to induce grounders at an above-average rate.

If I Had My Druthers
• Jair Jurrjens, a native of Curacao (in the Netherlands Antilles), would begin referring to his fastball as “The Dutch Oven” — owing, you know, to the heat that it provided.
• It would become such a fabulous pitch that announcers are absolutely forced to reference it, by name, on the air.
• I, along with droves of American teenagers, would L my A off.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

Read the rest of this entry »

What you’re getting here is two games for each of the next three days. It’s all part of FanGraphs’ “commitment to service.”

(Games listed by day and in order of likely awesomeness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

Friday, August 27th
Philadelphia (3) at San Diego (10), 10:05pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Roy Oswalt (9) and Mat Latos (10). One of them’s likely to play left field at some point tonight. So, heads up on that, is what I’m saying.
• At the team level, the Phillies are currently undervalued by NERD, on account of the injury situation (and subsequent returns). Second baseman Chase Utley remains both handsome and talented, however.
• You should take note of Padre Chris Denorfia, who’s not only slashing 289/.354/.483, and not only an alumnus of Choate, but whose family settled in Bristol, Connecticut — i.e. the American city with the highest density of Cistullis per capita.*

*It occurs to me that this may interest you zero percentedly, but maybe you can at least benefit from some of that vicarious joy.

Boston (7) at Tampa Bay (10), 7:05pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Jon Lester (7) and David Price (10), both of whom are so competent as to almost entirely lose my interest.
• At the team level, the Rays are currently the best baserunning team in the majors — at least by NERD’s rigorous standards.
• You should take note of the radio broadcast from the Boston side — especially if you want to hear exactly one thousand local auto glass commercials.

Saturday, August 28th
Arizona (9) at San Francisco (4), 9:05pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Dan Hudson (9) and Matt Cain (6). Hudson, only 23, is sporting a 8.84 K/9 against only a 1.47 BB/9 through his first five Diamondback starts. For all their questionable maneuvers of late, this move appears not to be one of them.
• At the team level, the Giants have recently distinguished themselves: with the acquistion earlier this week of Cody Ross, they become one of the few teams in major league history to feature a roster composed entirely of outfielders.
• You should take note of Andres Torres, who is threatening Chase Utely in terms of the old handsome/talented combo deal. (Torres’ line this season: 480 PA, .287/.368/.501, .352 BABIP, .382 wOBA, 140 wRC+, 5.7 WAR.)

Pittsburgh (6) at Milwaukee (8), 7:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Zach Duke (5) and Chris Capuano (???). I originally gave Capuano an estimated NERD of 1 (see the full daily schedules down below), but, at second glance, that’s probably way unfair. Not only is Capuano sporting a 3.52 xFIP, but he’s also clawed his way back into the rotation after undergoing two consecutive Tommy John procedures. Feel that, America? That’s your heart being warmed.
• At the team level, the Brewers are currently fourth in all of baseball at 69.0 park-adjusted runs above average on the season — trailing only the Yankees, Twins, and Red Sox. Of the 596 runs they’ve scored this year only like 517 of them were scored against the Pirates.
• You should take note of Lorenzo Cain if and when he appears in this game. I’m led to believe that he only started playing baseball in high school. Also — and perhaps related — he kinda runs like a giant, incredibly fast puppy.

Sunday, August 29th
New York Americans (6) at Chicago Americans (5), 2:05pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Ivan Nova (7*) and Gavin Floyd (7). The former of those guys, Nova, made his first career start on Monday. He was was efficient — 5.1 IP, 22 TBF, 3 K, 1 BB, 9 GB on 18 BIP (50%) — if not overpowering, but he’s noteworthy for another reason, which is that he features a change-up with rather startling movement. While his fastball sits around 94-95 mph, he throws his changepiece pretty close to that in terms of velocity — around 87 mph. But while (per Texas Leaguers) the average major league change-up features about 6.5 inches of armside run (i.e. toward a righthanded batter), Nova’s change moves over 10 inches. And it’s pretty obvious even while watching the game on a netbook.
• How about instead of discussing either club on a team level, we just pop up some poppycorn and watch this video of Nova’s first start.
• You should take note of around the 0:27 mark in that same video, where Nova throws a 97 mph fastball by Adam Lind.

Houston (0) at New York Nationals (3), 1:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Bud Norris (9) and R.A. Dickey (10). That’s not actually the NERD score that Dickey would receive by the current formula, but a number of readers lobbied on his behalf and I totally completely wanted them to stop doing that.
• At the team level, one nice thing you can say about the Mets is that they’re not the Astros. Seriously, the only thing the Astros do well is steal oftener than average — which, that’s not really a skill, per se.
• You should take note of how the Astros replaced their old-ish and mostly chunky first baseman with a much younger, but still equally chunky, first baseman.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

(Note: I don’t know how Hammel got listed as a 1. Ignore that. But also, probably don’t watch that game, either.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Three games want so badly to pleasure you tonight. Let down your guard, America, and let in the joy.

(Games listed in order of likely awesomness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

Minnesota (7) at Texas (8) | 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Twins: Francisco Liriano (10)
151.1 IP, 9.81 K/9, 2.97 BB/9. .350 BABIP, 53.8% GB, 2.9% HR/FB, 3.00 xFIP

Rangers: Cliff Lee (10)
174.2 IP, 7.78 K/9, 0.57 BB/9, .301 BABIP, 40.3% GB, 6.0% HR/FB, 3.28 xFIP

Notes
• Because you and I have never met — and because we’ve definitely never heart-to-hearted our respective world views over a couple-few glasses of white zin — I don’t exactly know what you’re looking for out of life. A home in a nice school district? A sweet yacht and stuff? I don’t know. Anyway, I’m guessing one thing you don’t mind — especially since you’re the sort of enthusiast to point his internet browser this way — is a clash between the American League’s two best pitchers. That’s what this game features. In other words: boo-yah.
• You don’t need to care even one lick about the Mariners to read Jeff Sullivan’s writing at Lookout Landing. You just have to wanna say bonjour to a prose style equal parts masculine and magical. Anyway, Sully (as no one should ever call him) is so good, he can even make you care about the whole Colin Cowherd-Cliff Lee thing.
• Question: Who will start in center for the Twinkers? The Shadow knows! (And Ron Gardenhire, too, probably.) (And also maybe Parker Hageman.)

Arizona (9) at San Diego (10) | 6:35pm ET
Starting Pitchers
DBacks: Ian Kennedy (5)
151.0 IP, 7.63 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, .277 BABIP, 36.4% GB, 12.4% HR/FB, 4.44 xFIP

Pads: Kevin Correia (5)
132.2 IP, 6.85 K/9, 3.87 BB/9, .298 BABIP, 49.1% GB, 14.2% HR/FB, 4.22 xFIP

Notes
• When you talk about Carson Cistulli, you’re talking about a guy who’s shocked to learn that Ian Kennedy’s thrown 151 innings this year. Go, you guy.
• When you talk about Carson Cistulli, you’re also talking about a guy who’s pretty surprised that Kevin Correia — who calls the giant, cavernous, and salty-aired Petco Park his home — currently sports an inflated HR/FB rate. Even curiouser is this next thing. Correia at home: 76.0 IP, 16.2% HR/FB. Correia on the road: 56.2 IP, 11.5% HR/FB.
• Chris Denorfia is repping Wheaton College* pretty hard these days. Line: 238 PA, .289/.354/.483 (.317 BABIP), .360 wOBA, 134 wRC+, 1.8 WAR. Also, he appears to’ve taken over center field duties with Tony Gwynn Jr. out of commission.

*Sorry. I meant THE Wheaton College.

If I Had My Druthers
• There’d be a book called Correia on the Road.
• Correia on the Road would be “a largely autobiographical work based on the spontaneous road trips of Correia and his friends across mid-century America.”
• Oh yeah, and Kevin Correia would’ve also time-traveled here from mid-century America.

Saint Louis (5) at Washington (6) | 7:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Cards: Chris Carpenter (6)
184.1 IP, 6.98 K/9. 2.49 BB/9, .275 BABIP, 50.9% GB, 10.7% HR/FB, 3.80 xFIP

Nats: Jordan Zimmermann (10*)
(2009) 91.1 IP, 9.07 K/9, 2.86 BB/9. .339 BABIP, 43.5% GB, 12.2% HR/FB, 3.39 xFIP

Notes
• This marks Zimmermann’s season debut — a kinda exciting thing, when you consider what he was able to do last year before succumbing to arm troubles and, eventually, Tommy John surgery. Here’s Zimmermann’s line through four Triple-A starts: 17.0 IP, 12 K, 3 BB, 0 HR, 2.32 FIP. The K numbers don’t appear to be there yet, but the control seems to’ve returned. Anyway, we’ll see.
• Ryan Ludwick was traded to the San Diego Padres on July 31st. Here’s Jon Jay’s line since then: .324/.378/.397 (.393 BABIP). That’s about a .353 wOBA. With something closer to a .325 BABIP, however, that’s more like a .300 wOBA. I bet Jay’s true talent lies somewhere above that (and I hope it does, as he’s on my fantasy team), but it’ll be interesting to see how things play out.
• If you didn’t read Dave Cameron’s piece about Ryan Zimmerman last week, (a) that’s kind of embarrassing and (b) do it by clicking here. Here’s what he says: were he to start a franchise, he’d very likely do it with Ryan Zimmerman — a.k.a. the same exact Ryan Zimmerman you can watch in this game.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Estimated NERD

This edition of One Night Only is brought to you by the unpopular imagination. Which, it’s kinda like the popular imagination, except with braces and stuff.

(NERD scores in parentheses. All times Eastern.)

Minnesota (7) at Texas (8) | 8:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Twins: Brian Duensing (6)
84.1 IP, 5.12 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, .249 BABIP, 53.6% GB, 6.3% HR/FB, 3.99 xFIP

Rangers: C.J. Wilson (3)
158.0 IP, 7.29 K/9, 4.04 BB/9, .257 BABIP, 49.9% GB, 5.3% HR/FB, 4.30 xFIP

Opening Statement
These are the same teams as last night. And, owing to tomorrow night’s matchup between nerdthrobs Francisco Liriano and Cliff Lee — well, it’ll probably be the same teams tomorrow night.

So sue me.

That said, there are some other sweet games tonight — which, you can see NERDed the eff out at the bottom of this document.

On C.J. Wilson’s NERD Score
It’s too low, probably. Here’re four reasons why I’m saying that:

1. NERD weighs xFIP pretty heavily. Wilson’s got a 4.30 xFIP, which is merely league-average-ish for a starter. But he also throws a cut fastball, which generally suppresses home runs at a better rate than the league-average of 11% HR/FB. Thus, his 3.66 FIP might actually be more representative of his talent here. Or, maybe 4.00 would be a fairer mark. In any case, it’s probably something lower than 4.30.

2. Wilson’s been crazy good this month — and crazy dominant in his last two starts. His line over those two starts (at Baltimore and home versus Boston) looks exactly like this: 16.1 IP, 20 K, 2 BB, 21 GB on 35 BIP (for a 60% GB rate, exactly). That gives Wilson about a 2.10 xFIP over his last two starts.

3. Wilson’s conversion from reliever to starter is still interesting as a narrative — especially if, as seems to be the case, he’s still figuring out what it means to be a starter.

4. While Wilson doesn’t have the nerd cred of a Brian Bannister or Max Scherzer, he appears to be a genuinely enthusiastic and thoughtful person — or, at least that’s what I’d guess from his Twitter feed. In the world I want to live in, thoughtful and enthusiastic people are successful.

On Denard Span, Jason Repko, and Center Field
The Twitters have recently served as a home to a number of Twins fans who’re saying they’d like to see Jason Repko take over for Denard Span in center field — at least on a temporary basis.

At first blush, it seems like a local, very enthusiastic fanbase overreacting to a run of bad luck on the part of one of their better players. Span has slumped lately, slashing .234/.280/.299 (with a .269 BABIP) during the month of August. His season numbers — .267/.336/.352, .296 BABIP, .317 wOBA, 98 wRC+, 2.2 WAR — really aren’t bad, although they’re underwhemling relative to last year’s .359 wOBA (122 wRC+).

Meanwhile, here’s what Repko’s done through 73 PA this season: .246/.319/.477, .283 BABIP .341 wOBA, 114 wRC+. His contact skills are poor, as his low batting average and 24.6% strikeout rate suggests, but otherwise he’s hit pretty well.

Span and Repko, The Remix (Featuring D.J. Parker Hageman)
In any case, I wanted to ask someone about this whole Span/Repko situation — someone who follows the Twins closely and is both (a) saber-friendly and (b) kinda foul-mouthed.

Viva la Parker Hageman of Over the Baggy.

To Hageman I posed this question: “Who should start center field in this game and why?”

Here’s what he said (minus some terrible comments about my mother):

With the Rangers’ CJ Wilson being one of the more lethal left-handed killers in the game, the Twins will certainly contemplate resting slumping center fielder Denard Span in favor of Jason Repko. Repko is very capable of spelling Denard, if for one night only.

Wilson has been one bad mofo against left-handed opponents this season. He’s viciously struck out 28% of all same-sided opponents faced while keeping them to a .105 batting average, currently baseball’s best in this split. That’s cold-blooded. Interestingly enough, Span has actually fared better against his southpawed-kin this year. Still, that is against human left-handers, not CJ Wilson.

Meanwhile, the right-handed hitting Repko has been a wonderful spare part for the club. His output is a reflection of sample-sizing, as he is frequently a strikeout waiting to happen, but he has contributed when needed. What’s more is that he has supplied more ball-shagging abilities than the Kardashian sisters, giving the Twins an above-average defender in Span’s absence.

Resting Span in this contest would be the least sadistic thing to do. After all, considering he is suffering from a well-documented case of walk depression, sending him to the plate against Wilson would qualify as a form of abuse, right?

If I Had My Druthers
• There would be an actual movie called C.J. Wilson’s WAR.
• Tom Hanks would play C.J. Wilson in it.
• Colby Lewis would also play C.J. Wilson.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Estimated NERD

Today’s edition of One Night Only is gonna make you sweat.

Sorry about that.

(NERD scores in parentheses. All times Eastern.)

Tuesday, August 24 | Minnesota (7) at Texas (8) | 8:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Twins: Carl Pavano (6)
174.0 IP, 5.17 K//9, 1.50 BB/9, .285 BABIP, 49.6% GB, 9.1% HR/FB, 3.91 xFIP

Rangers: Colby Lewis (6)
155.0 IP, 8.94 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, .291 BABIP, 37.9% GB, 7.9% HR/FB, 3.86 xFIP

Opening Statement
I feel like you’re judging me because I picked this game. You’re like, “Oh, what, Colby Lewis pitches and you just automatically pick that game?!? Do you even know that there’re like twenty-nine other teams, Cistulli — and like, I don’t know, three-hundred other starting pitchers?”

Listen, okay: stop judging me with your judgments. Because, you know what? You know who else got judged with a lot of judgments? Jesus*. That’s who.

So, cram it.

*It occurs to me that you might think I mean Jesus of Nazareth. Actually, no; I’m talking about this guy Jesus I went to high school with. Great guy, but short. So a lot of people judged him on that. But he was really just like you. Unless you’re tall, I mean. In which case, he wasn’t like you at all.

Opening Statement, Version 2.0
This is just one of three games today with a Game NERD in the 7s. Here are the others:

• Florida (Josh Johnson) at New York Nationals (R.A. Dickey), 7:10pm
• Arizona (Rodrigo Lopez) at San Diego (Clayton Richard), 10:05pm

But Why I Picked This One
Because, I don’t care, I’m not gonna watch Rodrigo Lopez pitch.

But Why I Picked This One, Version 2.0
Because the Twins and Rangers are in first place.

And also, the Rangers almost no-hit the Twinkers last night.

And also, I SCREAM FOR COLBY LEWIS.

On Carl Pavano and the Moustache Situation
The internet has found out that Carl Pavano has a sweet moustache. “Which moustache?” maybe you’re asking (because this is your first time ever near a computer). This one:

Wait, that’s Hercule Poirot. This is what I mean:

Breaking News
I’m the sort of guy to get breaking news. So when I wanted to get a big story on these moustaches, I went to one of my trusted sources — i.e. Bryz of Off the Mark.

I was like, “Hey, Bryz: tell me something I don’t know about this whole moustache situation.”

He was like (and I quote):

Pavano took the field during his second-to-last start at Target Field to the tune of the Super Mario theme. Whereas Mario throws only one type of fireball, Pavario throws as many as four: two-seam fastball, Vulcan change (Pavario calls it a fosh), four-seam fastball, and a slider. Based on pitch type linear weights, these pitches are just as deadly as Mario’s fireball.

Pavano’s mustache has the ability to perform inception, causing you to want to grow a mustache. It’s certainly worked on Twins mascot T.C.

Good work, Bryz. Top shelf.

Finally, An Actual Fact
Minnesota is second in the majors in park-adjusted weighted runs above average (wRAA), and first in Batting-plus-Fielding WAR.

If I Had My Druthers
• Colby Lewis and Carl Pavano would make a second version of C+C Music Factory.
• This version wouldn’t be a band, at all, but an actual factory.
• Said factory would supply jobs to un- and underemployed Americans.

The Rest of Tonight’s Games
Are here:

pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Estimated NERD

Just three tiny hours ago, I submitted for the readership’s consideration a bigger, badder version of the NERD metric that I originally introduced back in June. Having come to something like a consensus on NERD for pitchers, it was clear that the American people were ready for more. They were ready — dumdumdum — for team NERD.

At the risk of overstimulating the home audience, who are likely still reeling from this morning’s announcement, I’d like now to discuss what these new advances in NERD technology — what they do for the One Night Only game previews I’ve taken to posting in these electronic pages.

Really, the differences won’t be huge-huge. It’s my solemn vow always to write (or, at least, try to write) in a prose style equal parts G.K. Chesterton and Mickey Avalon.

But there will be one difference, and it’s kinda awesome. Regard:

pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Estimated NERD

What you see there is all of today’s games, graded via NERD scores. Under the column labeled pNERD, you got your pitchers’ NERDs; under tNERD, you got your teams’ NERDs; and under Game, you got both the time of the game (Eastern) and the average of both pitchers’ and teams’ NERD scores. That last number, if everything is working correctly, should give you a sense of how appealing the game in question ought to be.

I intend to provide such a list in these pages everyday, Monday through Thursday, and then a weekend edition on Fridays. (I also might not do that, on account of how Sloth’s strong strength.)

In any case, were I you, I’d probably watch that Yankers-Blue Jays game tonight. Morrow is awesome for a bunch of reasons that are probably obvious; the Toronto offense hits a lot of home runs; and Ivan Nova will be making his first career major league start.

Barring that game, there’s the Twins-Ranger game. Derek Holland (NERD: 5) was originally slated to start for Minnesota, but now it’s Rich Harden. Will he throw even one strike? Tune in to find out!