KATOH Projects: Washington Nationals Prospects
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Yesterday, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Washington Nationals. In this companion piece, I look at that same DC farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. The Nationals have the 16th-best farm system in baseball according to KATOH.
There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.
Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.
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1. Trea Turner, SS (Profile)
KATOH Projection: 8.8 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 60 FV
Turner scuffled in his first taste of big-league action last year, but previously did a bang-up job in the minors. Speed is Turner’s calling card, but he also showed a decent amount of power when he popped eight homers in the minors. Turner’s high-ish strikeout rates are a bit concerning, but his overall offensive package is extremely promising for a shortstop.
| Turner | Name | Proj. WAR | Actual WAR |
| 1 | Wilton Guerrero | 7.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | Alcides Escobar | 7.6 | 10.4 |
| 3 | Jhonny Peralta | 6.8 | 11.4 |
| 4 | Alex Gonzalez | 8.1 | 8.3 |
| 5 | Joe Thurston | 8.5 | 0.0 |
| 6 | Todd Walker | 9.0 | 2.4 |
| 7 | Asdrubal Cabrera | 11.6 | 13.3 |
| 8 | Troy Tulowitzki | 7.6 | 28.6 |
| 9 | B.J. Upton | 11.0 | 22.4 |
| 10 | Jose Ortiz | 7.7 | 0.3 |