KATOH Projects: Toronto Blue Jays Prospects
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Yesterday, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Toronto Blue Jays. In this companion piece, I look at that same Toronto farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. The Blue Jays have the 28th-best farm system in baseball according to KATOH.
There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.
Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.
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1. Richard Urena, SS (Profile)
KATOH Projection: 6.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV
Although he played the entire year as a 19-year-old, Urena belted 16 homers as a shortstop in A-ball. His 21% strikeout rate and 3% walk rate speak to his unrefined plate discipline, but Urena’s so good in other areas that KATOH doesn’t much care.
| Rank | Name | Proj. WAR | Actual WAR |
| 1 | Juan Bautista | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | Brandon Phillips | 6.6 | 11.5 |
| 3 | Sean Rodriguez | 4.5 | 6.0 |
| 4 | Teuris Olivares | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Kevin Witt | 4.3 | 0.0 |
| 6 | Brent Butler | 4.8 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Adam Jones | 7.0 | 22.0 |
| 8 | Tony Batista | 3.9 | 13.3 |
| 9 | Trevor Plouffe | 5.4 | 4.4 |
| 10 | Jose Ortiz | 5.1 | 0.3 |