KATOH Projects: Texas Rangers Prospects

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Last week, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Texas Rangers. In this companion piece, I look at that same Texas farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. The Rangers have the fourth-best farm system in baseball according to KATOH.

There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.

Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.

*****

1. Nomar Mazara, OF (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 8.8 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 55+ FV

Although he was just 20, Mazara slashed .295/.367/.439 between Double-A and Triple-A last year. Mazara’s strikeout rates have gotten progressively better as he’s climbed the minor league ladder. Mazara posted an alarming 29% strikeout rate in his first taste of pro ball, but he’s also slashed his strikeout rate every year since. In his 135 Triple-A plate appearances, he struck out just 14% of the time. He’s come a long way. Due to his below-average speed, Mazara doesn’t steal bases as often as the typical outfield prospect, and isn’t a great defender. But he hits for both average and power, and has already begun producing in the show.

2. Joey Gallo, 3B (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 6.7 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 50 FV

Gallo is a polarizing prospect. On the one hand, he has crazy power. But he has a lot of trouble making consistent contact. His strikeout rates in the minors have been alarmingly high at every step of the way, including his brief stint with the Rangers last year. There are two things we know for sure about Joey Gallo going forward: He’ll (a) hit some homers and (b) rack up a ton of strikeouts in the process. It’s really just a matter of how those two things balance each other out. It’s easy to dream on Gallo’s upside as a perennial home-run threat, but as Brandon Wood taught us, sometimes guys like this never quite adjust to big-league pitching.

3. Michael De Leon, SS (Profile)

De Leon isn’t much of a hitter. He slashed just .222/.277/.281 in Low-A last year and didn’t even steal bases. On the bright side, he hit a slightly more respectable .247/.306/.318 in 2014. But more importantly, he’s a 19-year-old who plays solid defense at shortstop. Considering he was a shortstop who was young for his level, De Leon didn’t embarrass himself too badly at the plate. KATOH thinks he’ll eventually hit enough to succeed in the show.

KATOH Projection: 6.7 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 35+ FV

4. Lewis Brinson, OF (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 5.8 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 65 FV

Brinson posted some terrible numbers in the low minors, but he’s gotten progressively better the past few years, especially in the strikeout department. His 21% strikeout rate from last year was still a bit high, but not alarmingly so. This is a guy who struck out 38% of the time in Low-A in 2013. With 59 extra-base hits and 18 steals last year, Brinson has shown a tantalizing power/speed combination. Brinson’s still just 21 and is knocking on the door of the big leagues, which makes it even more remarkable how far he’s come the past few years.

5. Yeyson Yrizarri, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 3.8 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 40 FV

Yrizarri hit a light .265/.290/.339 in the Northwest League, but gets a pass for being an 18-year-old shortstop. Despite his youth, the Rangers gave him a nine game cameo at Triple-A, where he hit a non-terrible .273/.294/.364. Yrizarri’s walk rates have been atrocious, but his contact and power numbers have been slightly better than atrocious.

6. Ariel Jurado, RHP (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 3.1 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 50 FV

Jurado thrived in Low-A last year despite playing the entire season as a 19-year-old. His 24% strikeout rate was quite impressive, but perhaps not as impressive as his minuscule 3% walk rate. He still has a ways to go, but his performance has been excellent.

7. Jairo Beras, OF (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.8 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 40 FV

Beras slashed a strong .291/.332/.440 as a teenager in full-season ball, though his 25% strikeout rate is something of a red flag. Even so, Beras’ nine homers, along with his 6-foot-5 frame, suggest he’ll be a major-league power threat down the road.

8. Yohander Mendez, LHP (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.8 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV
Although he pitched largely in a relief role last year, Mendez’s dominance in the low minors has caught KATOH’s eye. He struck out 28% of batters faced last year, resulting in a stellar 2.41 FIP. He also gets bonus points for his projectable 6-foot-5 frame.

9. Juremi Profar, 3B (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.4 WAR
Dan’s Grade: Unranked

The younger Profar held his own as a 19-year-old in A-Ball last year. He leaned heavily on his contact skills to produce a .264/.317/.376 batting line. Profar has demonstrated neither power nor speed in the minor leagues, but KATOH likes his contact and defensive skills.

10. Drew Robinson, 2B (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.4 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 40 FV

Robinson hit .238/.363/.463 with 17 steals last year between Double-A and Triple-A, while playing mostly second base. A true three-true-outcomes hitter, his statistical long suits are his 24 homers and 16% walk rate, while his 27% strikeout rate is a huge red flag. Ugly strikeout rate and all, Robinson is a high-minors player who has a lot going for him. He should have a future in the show.

11. Luis Ortiz, RHP (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.0 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 55 FV

Ortiz pitched excellently in Low-A last season, putting up a 1.80 ERA and 2.50 FIP across 50 innings. The sample is obviously very tiny, but Ortiz’s 23% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate were both excellent. It’s still very early for Ortiz, but he’s yet to fail.

*****

Eduard Pinto didn’t embarrass himself as a 20-year-old in full-season ball last year. Most notably, he made an obscene amount of contact. Phil Klein is a 26-year-old reliever, but he’s posted solid strikeout numbers in the minors and is 6-foot-7. Jose Gonzalez hit just .254/.317/.380 in Low-A, but his 10 homers and 30 steals make him mildly interesting.

*****

Jose Leclerc managed a solid 21% strikeout rate as a 21-year-old in Double-A last year, but did so with an ugly 5.77 ERA and 16% walk rate. Andrew Faulkner was lights-out in High-A  in 2014, but his walk rate jumped to 12% in Double-A last year.