The quality of Yu Darvish’s stuff is glaringly obvious. His fastball sits between 91-95 MPH and has serious run, while he throws a pair of breaking balls that dive differently and works in an 89 MPH cutter with late action. And, he’s got a wide enough variety of options to give hitters a lot of different looks.

As you can see, there are no distinct clumps there. He’s thrown curveballs at 66 MPH, curveballs at 80 MPH, and pretty much everything in between. His slider has been between 80 and 86, and then his three fastballs give him the ability to go anywhere between 88 and 95. This is the repertoire of a guy who should miss a lot of bats.

And yet, after three starts, Darvish just isn’t fooling anyone. 333 pitches into his big league career, and opposing batters have made contact on 81.6% of the pitches he’s thrown. Major League average for a starting pitcher in 2012 is 81.7%. For comparison, the other pitchers with contact rates between 81.0-81.9% include Doug Fister, Felix Doubront, Jake Arrieta, R.A. Dickey, Ervin Santana, Mark Buehrle, Jamie Moyer, Jaime Garcia, Ryan Vogelsong, Jonathan Sanchez, Ian Kennedy, and Freddy Garcia.

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“Mentally, I was very calm, but my body felt like it wanted to go and go and go,” Darvish said through his translator. “At the beginning of the game, my mind and my body kind of weren’t on the same page.” — Yu Darvish after his first MLB start

On Monday, I watched with imprisoned eyes as Yu Darvish made his major league debut and did that which many had thought impossible — he walked Chone Figgins.

To say the least, I studied Yu Darvish quite a bit this offseason and was surprised at this seemingly immediate loss of control and command. Some of the hits that followed in that four-run first inning were bloops and seers, but even in the pitches preceding the bad luck, Darvish looked wild — nothing like he looked in Japan or even in the 2012 Spring Training season.

By the third inning, a different man was pitching, a steadier, stronger Darvish. He mowed through the Mariners lineup — while the Mariners pitchers got mowed over by the Rangers — and ended up “winning” the game with 5 ER, 6.2 IP, and raucous applause. Watching the game, I could not help but suspect something more than a rusty start was at hand. Maybe my studies of Darvish and likewise high expectations for him tainted my perception? Maybe the psychological framing of it being his first start in the MLB pushed me to think this, but for my money, Darvish looked nervous.
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For the last few seasons, Ian Kinsler has been one of the more under-appreciated stars in Major League Baseball. From 2009 to 2011, Kinsler produced +15.8 WAR for the Rangers, putting him in a near dead heat with Robinson Cano (+16.4) and Dustin Pedroia (+16.2) at second base, and ranking him ahead of high profile players such as Prince Fielder (+15.3), Matt Kemp (+14.3), and even his teammate Josh Hamilton (+14.1). Even if you think defensive metrics are completely useless and you want to assume that every player is an average defender at their position, Kinsler would still grade out as top 25 position player, and he’d still grade out ahead of Hamilton. His combination of plate discipline, elite contact skills, rare power for a middle infielder, and his ability to add value on the bases makes him one of the most complete players in the game.

Recognizing his value to the franchise, the Rangers rewarded him with a new five year contract extension today, agreeing to pay him $75 million from 2013 to 2017. This deal will keep Kinsler from becoming a free agent after the 2013 season and allows Texas to retain one of the core players at a price that shouldn’t prove too prohibitive going forward. At $15 million per year, Kinsler won’t have to remain a superstar in his mid-30s to justify the contract – as long as he’s healthy and retains some of the skills he’s shown up to this point in his career, it should prove to be a solid investment by the Rangers.

However, there’s a bit of an asterisk when you deal with second baseman on the wrong side of 30 – they don’t age very well at all. While the reasons behind the phenomenon aren’t perfectly understood (best guesses at the moment include the physical toll taken via turning the double play, and a selection bias effect based on what traits 2Bs get selected for having), the evidence is too strong to ignore.

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Yu Darvish debuted yesterday. His first pitch registered 95 MPH and the flashbulbs popped. Then things went south in Texas.

Four singles, three walks, a wild pitch, and 42 combined pitches later, his first inning finally went into the books. With it went much of the mania surrounding his arrival in the states. Was this pitcher, despite being about 50% better relative to the Japanese league than the last great Japanese import, going to suffer the same control problems that plagued Daisuke Matsuzaka before him? Was he a nibbler without an out pitch?

At the risk of being an apologist, even in this small sample there were mitigating factors.

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Read the methodology behind the ratings here. Remember that the grading scale is 20-80, with 50 representing league average.

#30 – Baltimore
#29 – Houston
#28 – Oakland
#27 – Pittsburgh
#26 – San Diego
#25 – Minnesota
#24 – Chicago White Sox
#23 – Seattle
#22 – Kansas City
#21 – Cleveland
#20 – New York Mets
#19 – Los Angeles Dodgers
#18 – Colorado
#17 — Miami
#16 — Arizona
#15 — Cincinnati
#14 — Chicago Cubs
#13 — Milwaukee
#12 — San Francisco
#11 — Washington
#10 — Tampa Bay
#9 – Toronto
#8 – Atlanta
#7 – Detroit
#6 – St. Louis
#5 – Philadelphia
#4 – Anaheim

Texas 2011 Rating: #7

2012 Outlook: 68 (2nd)

The Rangers return most of a team that reached the World Series for a second straight year in 2011, and they replaced their only significant departure by bringing in Yu Darvish, billed as perhaps the best international free agent in history. There just isn’t an area of the game where the Rangers are deficient, as they have one of the league’s deepest pitching staffs, best defenses, and an offense that can score runs in bunches. They have a terrific, balanced roster, and they are very likely to contend for their third consecutive World Series appearance.

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The Texas Rangers and second baseman Ian Kinsler have been discussing a possible six-year contract extension for the better part of two months, but Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the negotiations will be heating up prior to Opening Day on Friday.

Rosenthal states that the Rangers are willing to exceed the record $12.4M average annual value given to Dan Uggla in March 2011, but Kinsler and his agent may be holding out to determine what Robinson Cano receives, which will help set Kinsler’s overall market. Of course, Cano will likely not be a free agent until after the 2013 season, so there are no guarantees that the Yankees’ second baseman will set the market until that time. That could persuade Kinsler to simply ride out the remainder of his contract with the Rangers and attempt to secure the most lucrative deal possible in free agency.

Although Kinsler may ultimately have a chance to sign for more money if he waits until he reaches free agency, the 29-year-old second baseman would take a serious risk. He has been injury-prone throughout his big league career. He only averages 128.8 games per year, and last season was the first season he played in more than 144 games in a single season. Waiting another two years before signing an extension opens up the possibility for more injuries and more question marks, which would only cost him money in his next contract.

For that reason, I would argue that it makes the most financial sense for Kinsler to sign a contract extension prior to Opening Day. It is the same argument for younger players signing contract extensions in their arbitration years. Take a hit in terms of total possible dollars in return for financial security and removing the possibility of one injury shattering the dreams of a mega-contract.

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As spring training winds down, the Texas Rangers bullpen is still in flux. In particular, Robbie Ross is chasing a left-handed reliever role that current Toronto Blue Jay — and one of the game’s better relievers — Darren Oliver once had. At present, Ross is competing with Michael Kirkman for the job, which is of interest because Texas might employ only one lefty in its bullpen.  While neither Ross nor Kirkman can be expected to be as consistent Oliver, it’s Ross who has the command and the arsenal to adjust quickly to the major leagues.

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Carson Cistulli is still rubbing elbows with Bill Parcells, Celine Dion, Bryant Gumbel and all the other beautiful people who populate Jupiter, Fla., but he will return tomorrow with observations about the human condition as it relates to baseball that are both insightful and humorous in nature. Today, you are stuck with me, and I will provide neither. Sorry about that.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Select Televised Games
2. Things You Can Buy With 2.15 Billion Dollars
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Oakland Radio

Select Televised Games
Notable games available on MLB.TV.

2012 National High School Invitational | 13:05 ET, 16:35 ET
Yesterday, the first-ever National High School Invitational kicked off at USA Baseball’s National Training Complex in Cary, NC. If you’re unfamiliar with Cary, it is located just outside of Raleigh, and is one of the primary towns in North Carolina’s fabled “Research Triangle.” This week, 16 of the country’s top high school programs have descended upon Cary to take part in a single-elimination tournament, and the winner gets bragging rights as the top high school team in the land. But while the tourney is single elimination, all teams will get four chances to play, which is just information overload for the scouting community. Several top prospects are scheduled to participate in the tourney, and you can watch two of today’s games live on MLB.com. Today’s games will be quarterfinal games, with the semis being broadcast live on Friday and the Gold medal game being live at noon ET on Saturday. Usually, we get nothing more than snippets of video from amateur players, so don’t miss out on the chance to watch several players that could go in the first two rounds this June. Check here for more details.

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In a perfect world, every prospect piece would be written after multiple looks at a player including batting practice, infield and in game performance. Unfortunately, everyday life makes it nearly impossible to make that goal a reality as career, family and budget restraints limit the ability for a prospect writer to keep the same schedule as an affiliated scout. And while small sample size is always a concern when it comes to writing about prospects, spending only three days in Arizona watching players did more to confuse my positions than clarify them.

Videos after the jump

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So far this spring, SP Yu Darvish has pitched 9 innings while walking 7 and striking out 10. Rangers fans, like any typical fan would, are beginning to laugh nervously. It is only human tendency, of course, to make too much out of Spring Training. We have been trapped in a baseball-less winter for nigh-on twelve or eighteen months or something up until this month, so when we finally get some more of that sweet, leather-tossing action, it’s only natural we freak out when someone goes 0 for 3 or a pitcher allows 2 home runs.

The best solution to this March Mania is to refer to the wealth of statistics behind the player and remind oneself that, more often than not, the last few years will tell us much more than the present spring. Well, for Darvish, it’s not as easy. So here, today, right now, I offer that March Mania solution for all NPB imports (I’m looking at you, SP Wei-Yin Chen, SP Tsuyoshi Wada, and OF Norichika Aoki):

Presenting the 2011 NPB stats for hitters and pitchers:
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