Tonight’s All-Star game was by far the lowest scoring All-Star game in the past 5 years, but it certainly did make for an exciting Win Probability graph thanks to Michael Young’s 2-out, 2-run triple in the top of the ninth. The National League was very close to pulling out a win, but in the end they still remain without a win in the past decade.
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In today’s New York Times, Alan Schwarz takes a look at the All-Star selections by Win Probability Added.
“Most back-and-forths about All-Star selections focus on the player’s longtime all-starness (whatever that means) or, toward the statistical end of the spectrum, his runs batted in, his earned run average, even his on-base percentage plus slugging percentage. But if your image of an All-Star is his season-long contribution to victories, then the more blue-collar W.P.A. — Win Probability Added — could make your next All-Star symposium less, well, cheesy.”
As always, you can find the Win Probability sections here:
Win Probability: Individual Game Graphs & Stats
Win Probability: Team Stats
SportsIllustrated.com is currently running a feature on the great Albert Pujols. I was lucky enough to have my PitchZone charts included. You can find the article and all the PitchZone goodness here:
Hot Spots, Cold Spots: Where do the best sluggers do the most damage?
The Post-Gazette’s “Stats Geek” (Brian O’Neill) did a piece today on the Pirates lack of big hits in terms of Win Probability and Win Probability Added. If you’re a Pirates fan:
Click here to see the Pirates game-by-game charts….
Click here to see the full season Win Probability Added stats….
For further information on Win Probability and Leverage Index, you should head over to the Hardball Times:
Dave Studeman: The One About Win Probability
Tom Tango: Critical Situations
Leverage Index (LI) is now available for all games and on a player-by-player basis. Much thanks to Tangotiger for letting us use his Leverage Index table to generate the graphs and player data. You can read more about Leverage Index here: Hardball Times: Critical Situations
There have also been some changes made to the Win Probability table which have resulted in some slight changes to Win Probability Added for each player. For the most part, all players should remain ranked the same in WPA, but pitchers should now have slightly more value than before and batters slightly less.
We’ve listened to your suggestions and have improved our Win Probability section by adding box scores, inning markers, and WPA season totals!
Click here for the new Win Probability Charts & Box Scores….
Click here for the new WPA Season Totals….
You may have noticed (or not) that I haven’t been writing much recently. That’s because I’ve been working away at putting together a Win Probability section which can be found under the “teams” tab. We’re going to try and plot each and every game during the season and include the Win Probability Added for each player on each team. You can read all about Win Probability here:
The Hardball Times: The One About Win Probability (Dave Studeman)
Major League Baseball Graphs (Dave Studeman)
Since we’re automating these graphs, our calculations might vary slightly from other WPA charts you’ve seen, but they should be “good enough” until I can tweak them to death. All credit/blame for each play is assigned to the pitcher or batter. We do not take good/bad fielding into account. Hopefully there aren’t any bugs, but if you find any, please let us know.
Much to my surprise, FanGraphs actually works with 2006 stats which are now up and available for viewing. There will be some additional site enhancements later this week.
While I’m waiting for the first night of stats to come in, I decided to launch a pet project of mine. You may notice a new section on the site called “News” and then under each player there is now a new tab “Blog News” and potentially two links below the player information.
What this is (should be) are links to blog posts that have information about that particular player. Matching player names with articles is hardly an exact science but I think it does a pretty good job of locating relevant articles about each player. We currently look at 89 blogs and are certainly open to adding frequently updated baseball blogs to the list.
Hopefully this will add a new dynamic to FanGraphs which will be beneficial to everyone. If you have any comments, suggestions, or concerns please feel free to contact me.
As promised, I’ve added HBP, SF, SH, WP, BK, and GDP to the stats pages. HBP and SF has also been added to the OBP formula and HBP has also been added to the LOB% formula. We’ll probably look into using a more complicated version of RC/G too. This was a rather annoying fix, hopefully nothing broke in the process. If you find any errors please let us know. Also, all the graphs have been wiped (200,000 graphs was taking up a lot of disk space).
Quick reminder to all bloggers and anyone wishing to use the graphs in their work. If you want the graphs to be permanent you must save the graph and host it yourself.
