The top two vote receivers in the AL Rookie of the Year race are enough to make most saberists tear their hair out. Jeremy Hellickson won the voting despite posting a 4.44 FIP and 4.76 SIERA, and Mark Trumbo and his .291 OBP came in second. Both Hellickson and Trumbo finished heads and tails ahead of the rest of the competition, despite posting Wins Above Replacement totals that ranked them in the middle of the pack and behind players like Eric Hosmer, Michael Pineda, Desmond Jennings, Brett Lawrie, and Ivan Nova.

Obviously, traditional statistics played a huge role in this voting. Hellickson had 13 wins and a 2.95 ERA over 189 innings in the AL East, and Trumbo finished the season with 29 home runs and 87 RBIs. This decision is being greeted with copious amounts of snark, but both Hellickson and Trumbo are exceptionally interesting players in their own right. Instead of being concerned about the snubbed players, I’m more curious about what the future holds for these two players.

How will their careers progress? Is there any hope they can fix the holes in their game? I took a look at some of Jeremy Hellickson’s issues today at DRaysBay, so let’s take a deeper look at Mark Trumbo.

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On Tuesday, we took a quick look at the competitive balance in the MLB, and I made the claim that baseball may have more parity than most leagues, but it also has want of greater balance. During the course of the piece, I made this statement:

The NFL has decided it wants payroll to have essentially no impact on winning, so teams basically trot out the same amount of money every Sunday and hope their money was better-spent. Is that what the MLB wants?

Aft’wards, Paul Swydan pointed out to me that indeed NFL salaries are not flat. Despite their hard cap, their hefty revenue sharing, and their tight spandex pants, the NFL still exhibits nearly a $77M gap between the biggest and lowest payroll — impressive, but still nothing compared to the MLB:

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Yesterday afternoon, Jayson Stark considered the question, “Is the MLB’s competitive balance a joke?” His answer was a rather blunt no:

MLB’s competitive balance is NOT a joke.

It beats the NFL.

It beats the league formerly known as the NBA.

And … I can prove it.

Stark’s method of proving it — plucking facts from the recent playoff series and comparing them generally to the NFL and other major leagues — was less than rigorous. In general, I agreed with his assertion: Parity in the MLB exists naturally far more than any other sports league.

HOWEVER, if my foot has less gangrene than your foot, does that mean I don’t need a doctor? No. I probably still need a doctor, and I probably need to stop playing barefoot tag on Rusty Nails Pier.

Relative success does not necessitate absolute success. And frankly, I feel the “parity” in the MLB indeed has a gangrene of sorts, a disease that is causing only specific segments of the league to rot while the rest hum along uncaring.

Of course, it is one thing to suspect something and demand more research, but it is another to pull the sabermetrician stocking over your head and answer that suspicion with a Falcon Punch of data.

Let’s do just that.
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By now most baseball fans realize that the majority of bunts decrease the bunting team’s run-scoring. However, we also know that bunting also makes sense in some situations, even for non-pitchers who can hit a little bit. It makes sense from the standpoint of game theory (keeping the fielders honest), can increase run expectancy in some situations, and in some situations in close games, it is better to play for just one run. As I did after last season, I would like to look at the three most successful bunts of the 2011 regular season as measured by Win Probability Added (WPA).

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As noted by Mike Newman and Jim Breen this morning, a recent report out of New York suggested that the Mets would be willing to trade David Wright for Peter Bourjos (and some other stuff). I’m not going to get back into the issue of David Wright’s trade value, but I do want to point out the obvious – Bourjos is a far more valuable asset than Wright, and the Angels would have to be crazy to trade him at all.

Bourjos’ availability is only discussed because the Angels have some kid named Mike Trout, who you may have heard of, and also happens to be a pretty terrific young center fielder. If you view both as true center fielders (and you probably should), then you could argue that the Angels have a surplus of players at the position, and perhaps trading one to get an upgrade at another position would be a decent use of resources.

Of course, that’s only true in a world where center fielders can only play center field, and teams can only have one at a time. In reality, Major League teams need three outfielders per game, and there’s no rule preventing a guy with the ability of a center fielder from playing left field or right field. In fact, with players like Brett Gardner, Carl Crawford, and Ichiro Suzuki establishing themselves as legitimate assets in corner outfield spots over the last decade, teams have become more and more open to the value of having multiple center fielders playing side by side.

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As the hot stove league kicks into full gear, Mets third baseman David Wright has taken center stage as reports have the Anaheim Angels a potential trade partner. With centerfielder Peter Bourjos rumored to be on New York’s wish list along with a couple of pitching prospects, Mets fans seem to believe Wright, one of the better players in franchise history, is worth significantly more in return.

On Twitter, I’ve asked a number of followers why with answers ranging from “Wright is the Mets Derek Jeter” to “CITI Field has depressed his value”. With Mets fans screaming “The fence, the fence” much like “Tattoo” screamed “The plane, the plane” on “Fantasy Island”, it seems as if Wright’s return to the seven-to-eight win player he once was is just around the corner. And while I can somewhat buy the park being a factor in Wright’s diminishing returns, outfield fences have little to do with Wright’s -31.1 UZR over the past three seasons.

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sa577984There is good news and bad news in terms of the Los Angeles Angels’ minor league system. The good news is that the club graduated – and leaned on heavily – a large number of prospects in 2011, including 1B Mark Trumbo, C Hank Conger, RHP Tyler Chatwood, RHP Jordan Walden, and RHP Bobby Cassevah. The bad news is that the promotions pretty much stripped the system in terms of upper-level depth. One more bit of good news, though, is that the club still has the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball.

1. Mike Trout | CF
BORN: August 7, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons (AA/MLB in 2011)
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round, New Jersey HS (25th overall)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

SCOUTING REPORT: Trout is about as close to a legit five-tool player that you can get. He can hit for average, has the potential to steal 30+ bases, throws well and could eventually win a Gold Glove or five. The power tool is the biggest question mark but he posted a .218 ISO rate in a potent double-A league.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Trout did not turn 20 until August but he received 123 big league at-bats in 2011. The youngster struggled, which in no way diminishes his future potential, and hit just .220/.281/.390. As a player with good speed, Trout will not continue to post BABIPs in the .240-.250 range. Although power is not a key component of his game right now, he knocked out five home runs and posted a .171 ISO and made some good, hard contact (20.7 line-drive rate).

YEAR AHEAD: While in the minors in 2011, Trout hit .326/.414/.544 in 353 double-A at-bats as a teenager. He doesn’t have much else to learn riding the buses but some time in triple-A would not hurt. With a full, mostly veteran outfield already in place in Los Angeles Trout may have to bide his time in the minors. He’d most likely be the first player recalled should an injury occur to Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter or Peter Bourjos.

CAREER OUTLOOK: As one of the Top 2 minor league prospects in all of baseball (along with Bryce Harper), it’s clear that Trout has a very bright future ahead. He won’t produce the kind of power that Harper will but Trout should have a stronger all-around game with excellent speed and defense, decent power and a solid on-base average. If he can stay healthy, it’s not hard to forsee him playing 15-20 years at the MLB level.

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Theo Epstein has officially joined the Chicago Cubs — which has largely thrown the baseball media into a collective frenzy — but another high-profile GM position remains wide open in Los Angeles.

The Angels’ GM opening is very attractive in many ways. The organization dished out $138.5M in contracts in 2011, ranking ahead of the Cubs as the fourth highest payroll in the majors, so the monetary limitations are relatively non-existent. The farm system also boasts elite prospects — such as Mike Trout, Jean Segura, and Kaleb Cowart — which lays the groundwork for potential sustainable success. The city of Los Angeles also packs a substantial number fans into the stadium, offering a consistent stream of revenue for the organization. The Angels finished the 2011 season with the fifth-highest average home attendance — 39,090 per night.

Despite all of those enticing aspects of the GM position with the Angels, significant drawbacks exist for any potential candidate, and they could deter a current GM from legitimately considering a switch. After all, Theo Epstein actively pursued the Chicago Cubs over the Los Angeles Angels for a reason, and it’s not all about organizational history. Read the rest of this entry »

Some of the following twirlers can really play the game of ball called base!

In 2011, a total of 272 different pitchers started a game in the MLB — that’s an average of 9 starters per team. In other words, five starters is not enough. Successful MLB organizations need pitching depth — and lots of it. Some teams may need a 7th or 8th starter for only 1 game, but ask the Boston Red Sox how important 1 game is.

For teams in the need, the 2012 starting pitcher free agent list has some value and some worthy risks out there, but as with every year, no team should expect the free agent market to have all the answers. The following list, though not exhaustive, runs down the most important names of the 2012 free agents:

Top Tier — Starters who promise big contracts and big seasons.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, Age 31 next season, free agent)
CC Sabathia (LHP, 31, may opt out)
Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, 37, FA)
Edwin Jackson (RHP, 28, FA)
Mark Buehrle (LHP, 33, FA)
Javier Vazquez (RHP, 35, FA)

The Obvious One, Mr. C.J. Wilson, finally promises to pull in that contract big enough to purchase his long-awaited solid-gold rocket car. Wilson, the heat-hurling lord of the lefties figures to have at least two very impressive suitors — the New York Yankees and his present team, the Texas Rangers. Since becoming a starter two years ago, he has posted a combined 10.5 WAR, sporting an ace-worth 3.24 FIP this year.

Not only does Wilson have a shot to break the bank, but there appears to be a chance that twirling titan CC Sabathia may opt out of the final four years of his contract with the Yankees. Sabathia has been yawningly awesome through his 10-year career, never posting a FIP- higher than 96 and assembling a career-best 2.88 FIP in 2011.

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As far as team sports go, baseball is a bit odd. Unlike the constant motion sports like hockey and basketball and soccer, baseball is incredibly granular, with each event taking part in its own discrete space. The only major team sport (at least in America) that shares this granularity is football, but even football shares more with the aforementioned three than it does with baseball, due to the necessity of exceptionally coordinated team movements.

Instead, baseball is a series of individual vs. individual events. Oddly enough, this highly individual-based game seems to prevent all but the very greatest players of all time from carrying teams on their backs to championships — and even then, the production of a Barry Bonds or an Albert Pujols cannot hold a candle to what a Michael Jordan or a Bill Russell ever did for their teams, largely because these highly individualized events can actually exclude baseball’s superstars from even participating at all when the game is on the line.

Perhaps it is because of this phenomenon of the sport that we’ve seen Mike Napoli — a semi-platooned catcher-slash-designated hitter who was cast off by not one but two general managers by February– define so much of the American League in 2011.

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