The Angels’ Corner Conundrum
While the Angels’ signings of C.J. Wilson and LaTroy Hawkins didn’t displace anyone, Albert Pujols‘ new deal has created quite a logjam at the corner positions for his new team. And now someone is going to have to go to make it work.
There are five spots — first base, designated hitter, left field, right field and one two bench spots — for six players: Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Kendrys Morales, Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo and Vernon Wells. Here are the options that seem to be at hand:
Morales doesn’t make it all the way back
I think, secretly, this might be the solution the Angels are rooting for, because it would mean they don’t have to hurt anyone’s feelings. If Morales is unable to play again, the rest of the guys on the list can get a decent amount of playing time without anyone being seriously inconvenienced.
Bobby Abreu gets traded or he gets released
This is another way of saying: “Morales is healthy and needs the lion’s share of plate appearances at designated hitter.” This is the scenario that Mike DiGiovanna hinted at yesterday, and it makes sense. Abreu has one year left on his deal, and he was worth only .4 WAR last season.
With Abreu gone and Morales at DH, Trumbo would get turned into a really tall Swiss Army knife — filling in at third base and in the outfield. Now, when I first heard that Trumbo might play some third base, it struck me as a bit hinky. After all, that’s going the opposite way on the defensive spectrum, and things don’t usually work like that. But then Jeff Zimmerman (who is just the awesomest) ran a query for me. He found that — in the past five seasons — 46 players have put together 56 seasons with at least 100 innings played at both first base and third base. There were a good number of young-player seasons in there, which is encouraging.
What also is encouraging is that Ty Wigginton popped up on the list four times — and Wigginton is no one’s idea of a good defender. In fact, his cumulative -61 UZR at third base is the game’s worst since the statistic was recorded in 2002. But if there’s one rule that applies for baseball players on defense, it’s this: if Ty Wigginton can do it, anyone can do it. Trumbo would probably be fine at third base. Not great, but he could handle it.
The one caveat here — and it’s admittedly minor — is that it leaves the Angels pretty right-handed at the plate. Last season, the Angels’ 93 wRC+ against righties ranked 18th in the Majors. Now, if Morales is healthy, he’ll help remedy that situation — as will Pujols. But for all of Abreu’s faults, he was the team’s third-best hitter against righties last season, trailing only Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick.
Mike Trout gets another year on the farm
Dave mentioned this yesterday in his excellent breakdown of Pujols’ deal, and while it’s probably not optimal, it would be an easy move to spin. After all, Trout hit only .220 in the major leagues last season, and he’s has never played in Triple-A. You don’t want him sitting on the bench in the majors when he could learn more with an everyday spot in a minor-league lineup. All of these things are true facts, so the soundbytes practically record themselves. Still, that probably isn’t the best option. Trout was worth 6 DRS and 3.2 UZR in fewer than 300 innings of major-league ball, and while arguing on the behalf of small-sample defensive metrics is one of the flimsiest arguments you can make, everything in Trout’s resume supports the idea that he’ll be an outstanding defender. And while he might not play every day, if the Angels want to win a championship, they need their 13 best position players in a major-league uniform. Trout is one of those 13 guys.
But if not, we will see him again, and it will be soon. In 2013, Hunter and Abreu are gone, and Trout can join the Angels as a starter. He’s kind of gumming up the works by developing so quickly, but that’s what you call a good problem.
Hunter gets traded
Nope, not an option. He has a no-trade clause. Just thought I should clarify that.
Vernon Wells gets released
The shame of this is that Wells still has some value, as he showed last season in a part-time role. Wells can’t effectively play defense in center any longer, but he had good short-term returns playing in a corner and scored positive marks in both DRS and UZR. It’s just that, on this particular team, that skill pales in comparison with the skills that Trout or Hunter have. Similarly, Wells proved that while he’s absolutely dreadful against right-handed pitching, he still has some stick against lefties — he hit .284/.320/.531 against them. That translated to a .364 wOBA and a 131 wRC+, marks that both were second-best on the team against lefties. The only problem is that the one player who was better was Hunter, and Trout slugged .490 against lefties in limited plate appearances. On a team with a bunch of left-handed outfielders, Wells would be a positive. But on this Angels’ roster, it’s difficult to justify his roster spot.
Right now, the Angels are going to monitor Morales and see how he does. At the moment, he has started swinging a bat and running on a weightless treadmill. If that goes well, he could be on the road back to the majors. If he’s unable to play, then the decision has been made for the Angels. If he’s ready, though, then the team has to figure out this roster conundrum.
Whether the Angels make the bold move and release Wells — or they seek out a safer choice, like optioning Trout or trading or releasing Abreu — one thing is certain: It’s a happy kind of problem, and it beats the position that the Angels were in a year ago.
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
Why is Hunter getting released not an option? One year left just like Abreu, obviously a big difference in fielding between the two but Abreu is a lefty.
Why would you release Hunter when releasing Vernon Wells is an option?
Because Hunter has one year left at 18 million while Wells is owed 63 million over the next three years, that’s why.
But Hunter still has Pretty good value. There’s a decent chance that he is worth his salary next year. It’s less likely with Abreu and Wells.
Well Jay,
It’s almost no chance that Wells reaches his value based on his salary, but that isn’t the issue. These are sunk costs at this point.
I should add the other difference is about 9 million in eaten salary in favor of releasing Abreu over Hunter.
LAA would revolt. Hunter is a fan favorite and leader in the clubhouse. Plus he’s better than Wells.
Hunter is a much better player than Wells and has more tools than just a batting eye, like Abreu. Not worth cutting.
Also, realistically it seems they would need to clear two spots for Trout at the moment.
You mention that there are 5 spots for 6 players, but don’t include Pujols. So really, there are 5 spots for 7 players. It’s likely that two of them have to go, not just the one.
3B is also ignored.
Was just about to make the same comment, Dave Shovein. Morales being out doesn’t solve the issue.
Sorry for the confusion. It should read left, right, DH and 2 bench spots. Not first base. Here’s how it shakes out:
C Iannetta
1B Pujols
2B Kendrick
SS Aybar
3B Callaspo
CF Bourjos
Backup C Conger/Wilson
INF UTIL Izturis
That’s 8 spots. You have 13 for position players usually. That leaves LF, RF, DH and 2 bench for:
1 Hunter
2 Wells
3 Morales
4 Abreu
5 Trout
6 Trumbo
Only one player needs to go, I just worded it wrong. Thank you all for catching it.
Went ahead and fixed this.
Paul, I think my point on needing two spots had mostly to do with Trout actually playing. Are they going to pay Wells 21 mil a year for 3 years for him to sit on the bench? Even the most staunch Wells hater would probably admit he would have a hard time performing as badly as he did last year again.
In some ways, sitting Wells is probably the best use of his 21 million talent.
Aren’t there 7 players and five spots? You left big al off the list.
I would think that they should do whatever it takes to include Abreu in an Erv Santana deal. That would allow Wells to hit the bench, Trout-PBJ-Torii in the OF, Trumbo/Pujols at 1B/DH.
I thought of that, only problem is it would seriously diminish the return on Ervin. Idk if that is something they would be willing to do. I’d rather trade Abreu and eat like $6 million…If that is even possible. Who would want him?
If Trumbo can play third he should play third regardless of the log jam. I’m not sure that he can, but there is no reason not to give it a try. If he can’t hack it you still have Callaspo. If Morales is healthy he should DH (If not a Abreu/Wells platoon would probably be employed). Trout, Bourjos and Hunter should be the starting OF. Peoples feelings shouldn’t be involved.
In my opinion, the best option BY FAR is to trade Trumbo. His perceived value is way high now after all those dingers in his rookie campaign, but he’s a classic guy that isn’t as valuable as his traditional counting stats indicate because of how frequently he gets out. Dumping him for a good pitching prospect or two make a ton of sense, especially givcen the fact that they may not be able to afford to extend Haren when he hits FA.
Plus, even if you trade Trumbo AND Morales doesn’t get healthy, You can platoon Wells and Abreu at DH and have an everyday OF of Trout/Bourjos/Hunter.
Trading Trumbo seems like a very good option that should be on the list as well.
I probably should have included it, but I don’t see it as a good option. Next year, Hunter and Abreu are gone, and even if Morales is able to play this year, he may not be able to play full-time. They will need Trumbo — if not this year, certainly next year.
Paul,
I agree and disagree. Yes they lose Abreu and Hunter but is cost controlled Trumbo playing OF/DH really their best option in that scenario? Maybe, in fact probably. I guess it really depends on what they wanted to get back.
Exactly, of all the holoes to possibly have, I would think DH would be the desirable one. Considering the value they could get back from, Trumbo, I’ll gladly take the risk that I need to fill a DH hole in two years.
Perceived value is the big thing here. The power will make a lot of teams ignore the OBP.
Move Pujols to another position.
Only slightly kidding.
You don’t want to blow up the guy’s elbow.
I guess I’m alone in this, but frankly, I think Mike Trout needs another year in the minors. To me, he looked in no way ready to hit major league pitching yet. Signing Pujols has nothing to do with it.
I was looking at some Arizona Fall League stats yesterday, and I believe Trout had a pretty pedestrian fall.
Why would you assume Trumbo can play 3B? The guy has never played 3B in his life as far as I can tell, and I’ll bet Zimmerman’s look of people who have moved from 1B to 3B winds up being a list of players who played 3B at least some in the minors. To me (and I’m not advocating this, just pointing it out) it seems much more plausible to stick Pujols at 3B than Trumbo.
Pujols played a few games at 3B this past season. I remember hoping he would get a couple more starts to qualify at the position.
I think the option to move him to 3B is not too far fetched, but still unlikely.
No way, not with Pujols’ ligament injury. Putting him at 3B is just begging for a Tommy John surgery.
My point wasn’t really that moving Pujols to 3B was a good idea, my point was that there’s absolutely no reason to believe that Trumbo can play 3B.
First of all, I wouldn’t trade Trumbo, at least not unless it is for a Chase Headley or packaged in a deal for someone like Ryan Zimmerman (one can dream), and I was sure Kendrys Morales was healthy. If Trumbo can play adequate defense AND improve his plate discipline even a bit, he can be a .270/.320/.530, 35 HR hitting 3B, which is a nice commodity to have under club control for five more years. I’m just as appalled as the next statnerd by that .291 OBP, but he deserves the chance to improve.
I also think it likely that Trout starts the year in Salt Lake and then comes up if and when one of the Old Guys gets hurt or flops. Wells will be on a short-leash and, if he’s struggling in May, might end up on the bench or in a platoon. I don’t think he’s released this year, though, because as Swydan says, he actually does have value and, money aside, would be a great platoon starter against lefties.
Now unless Morales doesn’t come back from injury, the odd-man out is Bobby Abreu because of his terrible defense. He’d be a nice pinch hitter and occasional DH, but I don’t see Scioscia putting him in the outfield, especially with the strong defensive options he has. Abreu is like the anti-Trout: it is just a matter of time before he’s gone, his defense sucks, and he’s declining rapidly. The key, I think, is whether or not he’ll sulk if he is only getting one start and a couple pinch hitting at-bats a week. If he sulks, he might be dumped.
Trout will find a way. Even if it is looking like he won’t have a starting gig until 2013, he’s still going to get playing time this year; my guess is he’ll end up with something like 250-300 PA, maybe much more but unlikely much less. He could put up truly gaudy numbers in Salt Lake and make it impossible for the Angels not to bring him up, especially when they are fully honest with themselves and realize that he is a better player than Wells is right now and will help them beat the Rangers more than Wells would. But I would be very surprised if they didn’t give Wells at least a month or two to try to re-find his 2010 form. If, on the off-chance, he does, then Trout will probably still end up rotating in later in the year somehow.
To put it another way, there are too many questions in the various configurations for Trout not to get a fair amount of playing time: Can Trumbo play 3B, can Wells rebound, will Morales be healthy and return to form, will the Old Guys stay healthy, etc.
What on earth makes you think Trumbo is capable of playing 3B. Nothing in Trumbo’s history suggests he can play 3B.
I believe he played the position in high school
It seems to me that Morales is almost sure to start the year on the DL. He’s not even running yet, and it’s been a year and a half since he saw any live pitching. I don’t see any reason to build your roster expecting anything out of him. So with him out of the way, I say put Trout, Bourjos, and Hunter in the outfield and have a Wells/Abreu platoon at DH. Then you try Trumbo at third, and if that doesn’t work out, then you have Callipso to fall back on, and Trumbo is either a bench bat, or you put him in AAA. He’s a nice player, but he’s not someone you build a team around. You fit him in if you can.
Or they could wait for the inevitable injury to one of their outfielders, and then call Trout up. They’d get to play the arbitration clock waiting game, while making it sound legitimate.
Trumbo is probably more valuable on the bench than in a trade. His pluses are that he’s low cost and controlled for several years, and adds power. His negatives are that he’s older and doesn’t project to get much better.
His trade value is probably for a collection of utility IF, 4th OF, relievers, reliever prospects, and AA projected back-end starters. Pick 3. Unless the Angels get to/through Spring Training with a need for 2 of these, they’re probably better off keeping him on the bench.
I think Trout may have acrued enough time last year that his clock has already started.
Not the case. Which is probably why he’ll be in the minors for much of this upcoming season. Also, Angels are committed to getting Trumbo reps at 3B. I’m skeptical that he can do it, but if he shows enough, then I think he’ll be OK. Obviously when Wilson pitches, they’d have Callaspo at 3B for the better defense he brings on the left side of the infield
Ideally, Abreu is moved…or accepts a bench role(not a bad bench option, just ignore the fact he’s being paid $9 million to do so) with Morales at DH and Trumbo at 3B. Unfortunately, I just don’t see any way that Trout has an everyday gig here until 2013(when Hunter is a FA and likely gone)
What about trading Bourjos and playing Trout in CF? He may be more valuable than Abreu or Trumbo, but if he can better bring back something they need in a trade (e.g. 3B), it should be considered too, right?
I don’t think the Angels would trade Bourjos. He’s too popular with the fans and has too much upside.
Having both Bourjos and Trout in the outfield for the next 4 years would be a huge advantage if they live up to their potential.
Why not try to make a win-win trade where you give up 2 solid every day players for one better player? Something like Trumbo and Morales to SF for Pablo Sandoval. Sure, you’d have to prove that Morales is healthy and all that, but you get the idea. Surely there has to be a team that would be OK taking a 2-for-1, especially if the 1 player they give up has some question marks like the Panda does.