With each passing day, it becomes more likely prospect Tyler Pastornicky will open the 2012 season as the starting shortstop for one the National League’s best teams. As the Atlanta Braves continue their careful transition from present-to-future, providing a defensive anchor at shortstop will be key as the organization’s strength is in its young pitching.

However, for as good as Tyler Pastornicky was in 2011 across the double-A and triple-A levels, his success as a big leaguer is far from a sure thing. And this is what makes a scouting report on Pastornicky difficult to write. Was he young for the level of competition? Yes. Were his offensive numbers strong? Certainly, but Pastornicky does not scout as well as his age and overall offensive numbers would indicate. This is why it’s important to be blunt in stating I like the young shortstop more than most, but can already envision this piece being perceived as overly negative when compared to the notoriety Pastornicky has gained this off-season as a potential shortstop of the future for the Braves.

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Fan Projection Target season is upon us, a time for FanGraphs readers to show those computers what’s what and out-project them using only intuitive genius. In past seasons, relievers have sometimes suffered from a relative lack of ballots, and while I am not sure this is true of all the relievers mentioned below, it might be a good place to start getting into projecting bullpens. How will some notable 2011 rookie relievers fare in 2011?

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The Atlanta Braves are entering unchartered waters with their youth movement in 2012. With their lack of interest in re-signing Alex Gonzalez or any other potential starting shortstop, the Braves seem likely to enter the 2012 season with rookie Tyler Pastornicky as their everyday shortstop. If this comes to pass, it would mark the third consecutive year that the Braves have begun a season with one of their farm system products as an everyday starter with Jason Heyward (RF-2010) and Freddie Freeman (1B-2011) being the other two. The fact the Heyward, Freeman, and Pastornicky will all be 22 years old on opening day 2012 started an interesting conversation between the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s Dave O’Brien and his Twitter followers due to the claim that no team in recent history has made the postseason with three starting position players under the age of 23.
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Last Saturday, Jon Heyman mused via Twitter that he hadn’t yet seen any trade interest develop in Astros’ first baseman/outfielder Carlos Lee. The tone of Heyman’s tweet was one of surprise; he noted “Guy did have 90-plus rbis for awful team.”

Putting aside Heyman’s reliance on RBI to make his point, the question remains. Is there a trade market for Carlos Lee? He will turn 36 next June and is in the last year of six-year/$100 million contract with the Astros. According to Cot’s Contracts, the Astros still owe Lee $19 million.

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The Braves made the very first trade of the offseason by sending Derek Lowe — and 2/3 of his $15 million salary — to the Indians. Though the return was nothing to write home about, Lowe represented unnecessary depth. The Braves had plenty of rotation candidates and freeing up $5 million afforded the team more wiggle room to pursue future transactions. But even after dealing from its major strength, the Braves still employ a whopping nine starting pitchers that could conceivably vie for a spot in the rotation.

Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson are locks. The latter two spots will feature some combination of Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Arodys Vizcaino, Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran. The Braves clearly have a number of solid pitchers at their disposal, and have been linked to numerous teams in trade discussions. After all, dealing from a strength to fix a weakness is a solid business practice.

However, in this case, the Braves would be better off recognizing that their depth doesn’t exactly qualify as a surplus. A surplus implies that the Braves don’t have a need for all nine of the aforementioned pitchers. Given the checkered injury histories of some and the likely innings limits imposed on others to avoid falling prey to the Verducci Effect, they probably will need all eight next season.

Teams don’t necessarily plan to use eight pitchers at the season’s outset, but the Braves may find themselves in that very position heading into spring training.

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It seems that the Atlanta Braves are intent on dealing Martin Prado this offseason. So far, Prado has been mentioned in trade talks with Kansas City (along with Jair Jurrjens for Lorenzo Cain and Wil Myers), with Colorado (for Seth Smith and a prospect) and with Detroit (for Delmon Young). Braves GM Frank Wren hasn’t found the right match for the 28-year-old yet — the Young rumor was shot down quickly — but a number of teams are likely to be interested in Prado if Wren continues to shop him. In fact, ESPN’s Buster Olney quotes an AL team’s official who favorably compares Prado to free-agent outfielder Michael Cuddyer. Trading Prado surely should be easy, but it begs the question: Why is Wren so anxious to get rid of his super-utility player?

The answer perhaps is difficult to understand, considering that Prado is a versatile defender who also has been productive offensively. He has a career wOBA of .337 and has compiled 10 WAR in three-and-half seasons of full-time play. He’s serviceable at both second and third base and is an above-average left fielder when you look at data from this past season. Prado is under team control for at least two  years, and he’s projected to make a budget-friendly $4.5 million in 2012. Additionally, the Braves don’t have an immediate replacement for Prado in the outfield — or in his other role as a  third base fill-in when the aging, oft-injured Chipper Jones needs time off. The Braves were in the bottom half of the N.L. in runs scored in 2011 and their outfielders’ combined .300 wOBA was last in the league. Needless to say, it’s not like the Braves are overstocked with productive outfield bats.

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The Rookies of the Year will be announced about the time this post goes up, or shortly thereafter. I do not know who will win, but there are a number of good candidates. Among those candidates should be a pair of 21 year-old first basemen: Kansas City’s Eric Hosmer and Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman. Controversial defensive metrics aside, their 2011 hitting performances (114 wRC+ for Hosmer, 118 wRC+ for Freeman) have rightly earned them recognition. Apart the passing glory of the Rookie of the Year award, what is most exciting for fans of both players is how such performances at such a young age bode for their respective futures in the game. While those numbers are unspectacular for first basemen, to have done so at an age when most of their peers were in college or the minors is most promising. This leads to columns like this, which compares Hosmer’s 2011 performance with that of other 21-year olds who hit as well or better. It is an impressive list, of course, and the general point is sound. But by only comparing Hosmer with players who hit as well or better at 21 it also skews the perception of Hosmer’s season. It makes Hosmer’s 2011 seem closer to Frank Robinson‘s age 21 performance (139 wRC+ in 1957) while leaving out that it is much closer to Jim Fregosi’s 1963 (111 wRC+). That should not be taken to demean Hosmer or Freeman. However, looking at more reasonable comparisons can leave optimistic impressions without being unrealistic.

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On Tuesday, we took a quick look at the competitive balance in the MLB, and I made the claim that baseball may have more parity than most leagues, but it also has want of greater balance. During the course of the piece, I made this statement:

The NFL has decided it wants payroll to have essentially no impact on winning, so teams basically trot out the same amount of money every Sunday and hope their money was better-spent. Is that what the MLB wants?

Aft’wards, Paul Swydan pointed out to me that indeed NFL salaries are not flat. Despite their hard cap, their hefty revenue sharing, and their tight spandex pants, the NFL still exhibits nearly a $77M gap between the biggest and lowest payroll — impressive, but still nothing compared to the MLB:

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With the Atlanta Braves shopping Jair Jurrjens, the question that everyone should want answered is whether or not Jurrjens is a lemon. Is the drop in his velocity attributable to injury, or is he simply losing velocity the natural way. The only way we will know for sure is if someone states so publicly, and unless Jurrjens is about to go under the knife, it’s doubtful that information will be forthcoming anytime soon. So for the moment let’s take a look at the things we can see.

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[I would make a self-deprecating comment about alliterative titles here, but the truth is I could not think of anything clever, so you got this generic-ness.]

The trickle of “on the block” rumors is turning into a stream, and one of the more recent ones down the, um, pipe (is that fine or a mixed metaphor?) is that the Atlanta Braves are “gauging interest” in multi-positional hitter Martin Prado and pitcher Jair Jurrjens, at least in part to free up salary. The Braves have a good collection of young pitchers, which is why they were able to execute a (partial) salary-dump by sending Derek Lowe to Cleveland. Jurrjens looks like the next out the door given his injury issues, dubious peripherals, and arbitration status. However, the more intriguing player might be infielder-turned-outfielder Martin Prado.

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