NLCS Scouting: Gallardo vs. Carpenter
Just look at that lovely mug.
Tonight’s NCLS matchup, pending the game isn’t rained out: Yovani Gallardo vs. Chris Carpenter.
Archive for Brewers
The First Moves for Cubs GM Theo Epstein
News broke this morning that Red Sox President of Baseball Operations (the de facto Red Sox GM) Theo Epstein and the Chicago Cubs have agreed to, though not finalized, terms which will bring the Yale grad to Chicago’s Northside. The deal appears to be worth $20M over five years, but the Cubs will undoubtedly need to send compensation (say, a prospect or some Benjamins) the Red Sox’s way — which may well escalate the cost beyond what’s beneficial to the Cubs.
If the compensation package includes a number of significant prospects, this may well result in Theo Epstein starting from scratch as the Cubs GM. So, let’s assume he is starting with a largely depleted farm system (one that was half-depleted in the Matt Garza trade). What moves does Epstein need to make immediately? And no, extending John Grabow is not one of them.
1) Fill the Front Office
The Jim Hendry regime nearly took pride in how small their front office was. They had scouts, sure, but their “statistics department” had long consisted of one man, Chuck Wasserstrom, until Cubs owner Tom Ricketts doubled their staff, bringing in Ari Kaplan and presumably purchasing a few more bristles for their push-broom.
NLCS Statistical Scouting: Jackson vs. Marcum
Because I’ve been a horrible person and not included this in my past few articles, thanks to the Joe Lefkowitz Pitch F/x tool for the data in these posts.
Earlier I looked at today’s ALCS game, so now we move on to tonight’s NLCS matchup: Edwin Jackson vs. Shaun Marcum.
Is Shaun Marcum Burnt Out?
As Shaun Marcum takes the mound for Game 2 of the NLCS against Milwaukee tonight, the shadow of a 4.2 inning, seven run implosion against Arizona in Game 3 of the NLDS will loom large. But Marcum’s first playoff start is the only recent negative for the right-handed changeup specialist: Marcum has only put together two solid outings since the calendar flipped to September. After hanging seven innings of shutout, one-hit ball against the Astros on September 4th, Marcum has made five starts (including the playoff outing) for a total of 29 innings, 25 earned runs (a 7.76) ERA, a rough 18-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and six home runs.
The playoff start puts the 29-year-old’s innings total for the year at 205.1, a career high, just over the 195.1 he posted coming off Tommy John surgery last season. With Marcum, never a picture of durability, we must ask: Are these struggles just the struggles pitchers work through over long seasons, or is he burnt out after the longest season of his career?
Yuni Betancourt: Useful Shortstop?
Yuniesky Betancourt ranked dead last qualified amongst shortstops in 2011, racking up +0.5 WAR in 584 plate appearances. Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin reportedly scoured the trade market for upgrades prior to the July 31 Trade Deadline, but was unable to come to terms on a deal. And with no legitimate upgrade on the postseason roster, Milwaukee entered the 2011 postseason with the worst everyday shortstop in the league in their starting lineup.
Surprisingly, that has turned out to be extremely fortunate for the Brewers.
In a 1-1 game in the sixth inning of Game 5 of the NLDS, Arizona’s Chris Young made a spectacular over-the-shoulder catch in center field to rob Jerry Hairston Jr. of an extra-base hit and save the go-ahead run. That brought up Yuniesky Betancourt at the plate with two outs, runners on first and second, and Arizona’s ace Ian Kennedy on the mound.
Jeremy Hellickson: Strikeouts Cometh
Join me! The rabbit hole is suspiciously warm.
The Tampa Bay Rays are now down 1-2 in the ALDS, placing their hopes for a Rangers rout on the shoulders of rookie right-hander Jeremy Hellickson. The so-called Hellboy takes the mound at 2:07 p.m. ET today, facing Rangers lefty Matt Harrison.
The match-up, to say the least, favors the Rangers. Not only does Harrison have the edge in FIP (3.52), xFIP (3.85), and SIERA (3.94), he has the added bonus of a seemingly normal BABIP (.290) and LOB% (72.3%). Hellickson has only an ERA edge (2.95); the rest suggests impending doom: 4.44 FIP, 4.72 xFIP, 4.63 SIERA, .223 BABIP, and 82.0% LOB%.
Well, Hellickson does have at least one major thing going for him: A serious and unusual strikeout regression.
Read the rest of this entry »
Underappreciated Play: Greinke Picks Off Roberts
There was a certain level of anxiety around Milwaukee as the season wound down and Zack Greinke‘s first playoff start approached. I kept reminding my friends that Roy Halladay’s first playoff start was a no-hitter. But, of course, I was a bit worried myself, and it turned out that worry was warranted: Zack Greinke gave up four runs on three homers over his five inning start. It was good enough to keep the Brewers tied or in the lead throughout, however, and he lasted long enough to allow the Brewers to blow the game open in the sixth.
Plenty has been made of this big sixth inning, but I would like to highlight one play which has gone under the radar. Specifically, I am referring to Zack Greinke’s pickoff of Ryan Roberts in the top of the fourth inning.
The play can be viewed here.
Doug Melvin Made All The Right Moves
“Progress always involves risks. You can’t steal second base and keep your foot on first.” — Frederick B. Wilcox
Prior to the 2011 season, the Milwaukee Brewers were largely viewed as a team in flux.
Prince Fielder was rumored to be on the trading block for the right price. The starting rotation was coming off a collective 4.65 ERA in 2010, and the free agent market provided little hope for a small-market team like the Brewers.
Many folks favored a quasi-rebuilding season. Trade a couple impending free agents and acquire some valuable, cost-controlled pitching to build for 2013 and beyond.Fortunately, Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin had an ace or two up his sleeve that nobody in the baseball world saw coming.
Should Arizona Have Pitched Around Fielder?
In the bottom of the seventh inning of Game One of the National League Division Series between the Diamondbacks and Brewers, Arizona’s starting pitcher Ian Kennedy faced Milwaukee slugger Prince Fielder with the Diamondbacks losing by two, a runner on second, and two outs. Fielder hit a home run. Almost immediately after the event, commentators questioned the wisdom of letting Kennedy pitch to Fielder in that situation. I even heard the suggestion that the Diamondbacks should have given Fielder a free pass to first base. Did Arizona make the wrong (non-) move?
NLDS Preview: Brewers-Diamondbacks
The similarities between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Arizona Diamondbacks are creepy. In 2010, both teams had very good offenses but sputtered to losing records due to horrible pitching. With their issues solved — a rebuilt bullpen in Arizona, a revamped starting rotation in Milwaukee — both teams stormed back from the depths of mediocrity (or worse) to hoist a division title in 2011.
The construction of both teams is remarkably similar. Both have a legitimate MVP candidate (Ryan Braun, Justin Upton). Both have good offenses, although with significant holes (Willie Bloomquist, Yuniesky Betancourt), and both have rotations turned from weaknesses to strengths, largely thanks to great one-two punches (Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke, Ian Kennedy and Dan Hudson).
What will set these two teams apart? Let’s take a look at the advantages each team will carry into the series, both perceived and real.