The Phillies and Cardinals split the first two games of their division series with each team winning in dramatic fashion. The teams now travel to St. Louis for two more contests after the Cardinals accomplished their goal of splitting on the road. However, both games could have turned out much differently had Charlie Manuel and Tony La Russa more actively managed their starting pitchers.

Kyle Lohse and Cliff Lee were each removed three batters too late, and as reactionary measures after the worst had already transpired. Being proactive in the manager’s seat is very important this time of year, when every out is crucial and a significant mistake can cripple playoff hopes. While Lohse’s implosion and non-removal seems more egregious given the nature of the Phillies comeback, the decision to leave Lee in the game for the seventh inning was just as ill-advised.

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Remember when St. Louis was doomed without Adam Wainwright? Yes, the Braves choked in a big way, but the Cardinals also made a magnificent September run to get into the playoffs. Their starting pitching was a huge part of that run, putting up a 2.85 ERA (2.96 FIP) during the final month of the regular season. Overshadowed by all the other Wednesday hoopla, Chris Carpenter dominated the opposition (I use that term loosely — it was the Astros) with a two-hit, 11-strikeout, one-walk, two-hit complete-game shutout. The need to win every game right up to the end of the season disrupted the preferred order of St. Louis playoff rotation, but it was not that long ago they looked like they were finished — at this point the Cardinals are playing with house money.

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The Cardinals steamrolled opponents in September en route to one of the biggest comebacks in baseball history. Trailing the Braves in the wild card standings by ten and a half games on August 24, they won 23 of 32 games, capturing a playoff berth on September 28, 2011: a date which will live in baseball insanity.

The Phillies, meanwhile, coasted through most of the regular season. Their 102-60 record marked a new franchise best, and that win total would have been even shinier if not for an eight-game losing streak directly after clinching in mid-September.

The regular season doesn’t matter anymore. Sure, the Phillies have home field advantage throughout the post-season — especially since the NL won the All Star Game — but playoff series are dramatic because anything can happen. The Phillies are a better team on paper, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Cardinals advance to the championship series. The last time a team as hot as the Redbirds made the playoffs, the 2007 Rockies won a one-game playoff against the Padres and subsequently swept the Phillies out of the division series. That Rockies team went to the World Series. Everything clicked at the end of the month and they were able to parlay that late success into playoff victories.

The Phillies lost the second game of that division series primarily because reliever Kyle Lohse served up a grand slam to Kaz Matsui. Lohse was recently named the series opening starter for the Cardinals, adding another parallel. Matt Holliday now plays for the Cardinals, adding even another parallel. But unlike that series, where the 2007 Phillies were successful almost solely due to offensive exploits, this version of the team is built much differently, and forms a much more formidable foe. Here are the major takeaways to get you ready for this potentially very entertaining division series.

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Episode Eighty-Six
In which baseball sells itself.

Headlines
The Events of September 28th — Recapitulated!
The Saddest Story Ever — Told Briefly!
The 2011 Playoffs — Super-Previewed!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 45 min. play time.)

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All that stands between the St. Louis Cardinals and (at the very least) a 163rd game playoff for the National League is Brett Myers, a 31-year-old pitcher with all of 1.3 wins above replacement on the season, a 4.31 ERA, and a 4.30 FIP. No problem for a lineup like St. Louis, this year’s National League leader in runs scored, right?

On the other hand, Myers enters tonight’s start on fire, recording five straight starts of at least six innings pitched and only one run allowed. He’s now a full three months removed from a 16-start stretch spanning April, May, and June which saw him yield 22 home runs and a 4.82 ERA. Since then, Myers has settled in a bit, recording a 78-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 4.00 ERA, roughly league average in the hitters’ environment in Houston.

Which pitcher should the Cardinals expect to show up tonight?

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Chris Carpenter signed a two-year $21-million extension with the Cardinals this week. That sounds better until you realize that the team already had an option on Carpenter worth $15 million. Somehow they managed to finagle an extra cheap year out of their ace for another $6 million. How much might the oft-injured pitcher have made on the open market?

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In his final start of August, Cliff Lee went 8 and 2/3 innings without allowing a run. Lee plunked Miguel Cairo with pitch number 117, cuing Ryan Madson to get the game’s final out. Last night against the Atlanta Braves, Lee finished where he started, using only 100 pitches en route to his 200th strikeout and 6th complete game and 6th shutout of the season.

Lee is now at 106 batters faced without allowing a run — 29 and 2/3 straight scoreless innings across 4 starts. Wow.

Despite striking out an uncharacteristically low number of batters (6), Lee instead trolled the Braves hitters by inducing 14 ground balls (second only to his present season high of 17 in his complete game against the Cardinals) and allowing nary a walk.

Last night’s shutout makes complete game number 6 for ol’ Cliff Lee, pushing his statistics down to: 2.47 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 2.76 xFIP, and a 2.67 SIERA.

Lee ranks 3rd in ERA, 3rd in FIP, 2nd in xFIP, and 3rd in SIERA. And he now leads the majors in shutouts with 6, ahead of James Shields (4) and Derek Holland (4). In the NL, it’s not even close:

When it comes to the 2011 NL Cy Young race, it presently comes down to just three fellas: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Clayton Kershaw. Yes, one could make the case for the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and even Daniel Hudson and Matt Garza, but the Big Three are presently sporting Cy Young statistics, residing on a plateau of their own Manly Awesomeness.
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Lance Berkman reportedly cleared waivers last week. How he went through the waiver process unclaimed is befuddling.

Certain noteworthy players pass through waivers based on a few factors. Some prove too costly in salary or years. Some may make it known they intend to invoke their no trade clauses. Others are viewed as risky and injury prone. The remaining players aren’t great enough to justify the acquisition cost, especially with a mere month remaining.

The Big Puma fits none of these descriptions. Determining why no team submitted a claim proves to be quite the tall task.

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St. Louis Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak recently told a reporter that the team has “unofficially” decided to pick up Adam Wainwright’s team option. That might have seemed like a foregone conclusion before the season, but Wainwright has missed the entire 2011 season with Tommy John surgery. The option isn’t just a one-year option, either. It is an option for both 2012 and 2013 worth a total of $21 million. Wainwright has been an outstanding pitcher in the past, and we’ve seen pitchers come back from Tommy John successfully before. Assuming the Cardinals make the decision “official,” it is interesting to speculate not only on what Wainwright has to do to make the contract “worth it,” but also on what it means for how the Cardinals perceive their near future.

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Should Hit, or ShH — pronounced like: “Shh! Be quiet or the Nazis will hear!”

Last week, while rifling through the lump of cold numbers that is the 2011 season, I stumbled upon a self-illuminating chest of gold coins: A reliable, fielding independent hitting formula. Today, we’re going to take it to the next level and get nerdy up in this beach.

Before we proceed, let’s do some of the research I did not care to do the first time around. Here are some of Should Hits’s predecessors (though they did not directly influence the creation of ShH):

FIP for Hitters
In 2010, Matt Klaassen wrote “FIP for Hitters? Defense Independent Offense.” His work in the article — though it does stay truly defensive independent and does not bring BABIP into the conversation — probably mirrors my work the most. However, his works is different both in process (he excludes BABIP and does not use wRC+) and intention (my tool focuses on regression, not really true talent levels).
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