In the bottom of the seventh inning of Game One of the National League Division Series between the Diamondbacks and Brewers, Arizona’s starting pitcher Ian Kennedy faced Milwaukee slugger Prince Fielder with the Diamondbacks losing by two, a runner on second, and two outs. Fielder hit a home run. Almost immediately after the event, commentators questioned the wisdom of letting Kennedy pitch to Fielder in that situation. I even heard the suggestion that the Diamondbacks should have given Fielder a free pass to first base. Did Arizona make the wrong (non-) move?

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The similarities between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Arizona Diamondbacks are creepy. In 2010, both teams had very good offenses but sputtered to losing records due to horrible pitching. With their issues solved — a rebuilt bullpen in Arizona, a revamped starting rotation in Milwaukee — both teams stormed back from the depths of mediocrity (or worse) to hoist a division title in 2011.

The construction of both teams is remarkably similar. Both have a legitimate MVP candidate (Ryan Braun, Justin Upton). Both have good offenses, although with significant holes (Willie Bloomquist, Yuniesky Betancourt), and both have rotations turned from weaknesses to strengths, largely thanks to great one-two punches (Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke, Ian Kennedy and Dan Hudson).

What will set these two teams apart? Let’s take a look at the advantages each team will carry into the series, both perceived and real.

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Episode Eighty-Six
In which baseball sells itself.

Headlines
The Events of September 28th — Recapitulated!
The Saddest Story Ever — Told Briefly!
The 2011 Playoffs — Super-Previewed!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 45 min. play time.)

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Lost in the shuffle of Tuesday night’s historic comeback by the Arizona Diamondbacks was the major-league debut of D-Backs prized prospect, Jarrod Parker. A top-10 selection in the 2007 draft, Parker missed the entire 2010 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Despite the injury, Marc Hulet ranked him as the No. 1 prospect in Arizona’s system prior to the season, saying he might be major-league ready by the end of 2011.

During the summer Mike Newman — our other prospect guru — had the opportunity to scout Parker. In his write-up, Newman said Parker’s fastball sat 92 mph to 96 mph with the ability to hit higher velocity, on occasion. As far as secondary options, Parker relied on his changeup more than his previously rated plus-slider, perhaps as a byproduct of his continued recovery. Like Hulet, Newman thought the 22-year-old Parker was ready for MLB action this year. With 5.2 innings of shutout ball on Tuesday, Parker looked ready—  even though his debut was not Strasburg- or Moore-esque.

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Remember when the San Diego Padres were winning last season, and Jake Peavy called out his former team’s ownership for firing general manager Kevin Towers, whom Peavy saw as the architect behind the 2010 Padres? Well, Peavy was put in an awkward position this season, as Towers took over an Arizona team that promptly won the National League West, primarily (albeit not completely) due to players Towers did not acquire. Wanting to stay consistent, Peavy pointed out that Towers stumbled into a good situation. Oh, wait, that didn’t happen. I am sure Mr. Peavy will get around to it in the off season.

Whoever is responsible for the Diamondbacks’ rise in 2011, it has been surprising and remarkable, and the performances of a couple of their starting pitchers played a large role. Arizona does not have a dominating “ace” in the mold of Halladay, Sabathia, Verlander, or Greinke, but neither did the 2008 Tampa Bay team that went to the World Series. How does the Arizona playoff rotation match up with the others?

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Back in May, and June, and even July, the Arizona Diamondbacks had their doubters. The San Francisco Giants were healthy and right in the race. San Francisco had a flawed offense, but one of the best pitching staffs in the league. And here were the Diamondbacks, a team relying on unproven pitchers like Ian Kennedy and Josh Collmenter, with a good offense but by no means an irresistable force, with holes in multiple places.

They still have a hole at shortstop, and I don’t know if anybody is convinced by Aaron Hill’s imitation of Dustin Pedroia — even with a .384 wOBA with the snakes, he sits at .292 on the season. But the real hole came at first base, and when teams have holes at first base, they tend to be exceptionally noticeable. Kevin Towers tried to fill it with Russell Branyan and Juan Miranda and Xavier Nady (and simply tossed aside Brandon Allen), but it was excessively clear neither could fill the role. The triumvirate limped to a combined -0.1 WAR as none of them managed to even touch an average wOBA — a cardinal sin when it comes to first base.

Enter Paul Goldschmidt

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Players who combine power and speed are fun. There, I said it. I know, shocking stuff. Most of the time such players are good, but not always. I didn’t find any bad offensive seasons with 30 or more home runs and steals, but once I lowered the standard to 20-20, well, let’s just say some guys could stand to take a few more walks. It’s a bit of a random collection, overall, so let’s take a look at the worst individual offensive seasons with at least 20 home runs and 20 steals.

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What would it take for a pitcher to win the National League MVP award?

Really there are two questions here: What would it take for voters to vote a starter into the award? And what would it take for a pitcher to be worth more than a position player?

First, a bit of history. Twenty-one pitchers have won the award since 1911, meaning it happens about once every 10 years. The last time it happened for a starter was 1986, when Roger Clemens won the award with a 24-4 record and 238 strike outs. Those benchmarks won’t be hit this year, but is it possible that some of the conditions will be met? Could Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw find themselves with two pieces of mega-hardware after the season?

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For a prospect who has spent the past four seasons steadily ranked between numbers 29 and 46 on Baseball America’s top-100, the discussion surrounding Arizona Diamondbacks pitching prospect Jarrod Parker has varied wildly. From Tommy John surgery, to questions surrounding his recovery, the past couple of years has brought more questions than answers about the young right-hander.

In mid-July, I had the opportunity to scout Jarrod Parker in Chattanooga against recent Dodgers call-up Nathan Eovaldi in a battle of mid-90s hurlers. And while Eovaldi burst back onto the prospect scene this season as one of the best starters in the Southern League, Parker was better. Using predominantly fastballs and changeups, Parker dominated the Lookouts allowing only one earned run and two hits over five innings pitched. The outing was impressive enough for me to rank him in the top-15 amongst players I’ve ever had the opportunity to scout.

Video after the jump.

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Major League Baseball’s surprise team may run out of luck in the playoffs. After finishing dead last in the NL West last season, the Diamondbacks currently lead the division by seven games, and look poised to enter the postseason. While their hitting and fielding have both been solid this season, the pitching has been the real reason for the Diamondbacks’ turnaround. Led by one of the worst bullpen performances we’ve seen in recent years, the Diamondbacks finished last in pitching WAR in 2010. This season, the Diamondbacks have improved to roughly league average due to breakout performances by Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson. Still, those performances may not be enough to lead the Diamondbacks to victory in October.
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