This kicks off a position-by-position series that will look at the upcoming free agents. Because there are fans of 26 teams out there already thinking about next year and how their team can get better, that’s why.

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Ramon Hernandez
Not a single free agent catcher qualified for the batting title. Among those that managed 200 PAs, though, Hernandez led the crew in both batting average and wOBA. He actually managed offense that was 11% better than the league average, which is like wow for a catcher. The position managed a .245/.313/.389 line, and Hernandez had a .282/.341/.446 line. That would make him the offensive class of the free agent class. And by Matt Klaasen’s most recent catcher defense rankings, he graded out as top-tier as well. So why might the Reds let him go? Well they have Ryan Hanigan in hand and Devin Mesoraco on the way, so they don’t need to spend that money. Also, Hernandez is 36 years old, has averaged 337 PAs over the past three years, and is as likely to be below-average with the bat as he is to be above-average (or more likely below, given he’s another year older). Even though his defense is at least decent and the Dodgers are a possibility, the best fit for him might be an American league team that can shuttle him between catcher and DH to keep him fresh. Could he return to Baltimore? Replace free-agent-to-be Josh Bard in Seattle? The Mariners are looking for offense at any position they can get it.
Verdict: Mariners.

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Prior to last night’s decisive ALDS game, Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland remarked of that Yankees left fielder Brett Gardner “had been really pesky” at the plate. I am not sure exactly what Leyland meant, but I have my own idea about what it means to be “pesky” at the plate. Usually, people mean that a “pesky” hitter is hard to strike out. That is part of it for me. However, when I think of Brett Gardner plate appearances, I think of not only a lot of contact, but a lot of pitches seen in general, both because of contact and simply taking pitches. So, let us say farewell to the Yankees by looking at the five most Gardner-esque, “pesky” hitters of 2011. To the junk stat laboratory!

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Ray Knight, seen here mocking Red Sox fans.

Assorted Headlines
Dodgers Decline Options on Blake, Garland
The Dodgers declined to exercise 2012 options on pitcher Jon Garland and infielder Casey Blake, according to MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick. Garland would have received $8 million in 2012; Blake, $6 million. While the former has been roughly replacement level for the past couple years, Blake posted a 1.1 WAR this season despite making only 239 plate appearances.

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Clayton Kershaw pitched well in his final start of the season on Sunday, striking out six San Diego Padres and walking one over 7 1/3 innings. Kershaw’s league-leading ERA rose a hundredth of a point to 2.28, while his estimators improved a smidgen — en-route to the 23-year-old’s 21st win this year.

The innings total puts the lefty at 233 1/3, behind only Roy Halladay. He struck out 248 batters, a full 16 punchouts ahead of Cliff Lee. Kershaw’s K/BB ratio ranks behind only Halladay and Lee, and his WHIP is tied for first with Cole Hamels.

Kershaw has had a remarkable season, and while these league-leader recaps might generally point to the Phillies’ front three splitting the Cy Young Award, it’s extremely likely that the Dodgers’ ace wins the award in only his third full season.

In the same game, Matt Kemp went 1-5 — with a double — bringing his seasonal line to a gaudy .324/.400/.581. Only four games remain, but with 37 home runs, 120 RBI and 40 stolen bases, Kemp has a fighting shot at both the National League triple crown and a membership to the 40/40 club.

Both players are either among — or very close to — the elite of the elite, and each has a very realistic chance to win a major regular-season award. The two also play on the same team, which happens to have a so-so 80-78 record. The Dodgers aren’t going to the playoffs, aren’t guaranteed an above-.500 record and have had quite a turbulent season with the team’s very public ownership issues. Yet the fact that Kershaw and Kemp have legitimate shots at winning the Cy Young and the MVP, respectively, says a great deal about the evaluation evolution. In fact, if they both do win awards, Kemp and Kershaw will have made history.

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What would it take for a pitcher to win the National League MVP award?

Really there are two questions here: What would it take for voters to vote a starter into the award? And what would it take for a pitcher to be worth more than a position player?

First, a bit of history. Twenty-one pitchers have won the award since 1911, meaning it happens about once every 10 years. The last time it happened for a starter was 1986, when Roger Clemens won the award with a 24-4 record and 238 strike outs. Those benchmarks won’t be hit this year, but is it possible that some of the conditions will be met? Could Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw find themselves with two pieces of mega-hardware after the season?

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In his final start of August, Cliff Lee went 8 and 2/3 innings without allowing a run. Lee plunked Miguel Cairo with pitch number 117, cuing Ryan Madson to get the game’s final out. Last night against the Atlanta Braves, Lee finished where he started, using only 100 pitches en route to his 200th strikeout and 6th complete game and 6th shutout of the season.

Lee is now at 106 batters faced without allowing a run — 29 and 2/3 straight scoreless innings across 4 starts. Wow.

Despite striking out an uncharacteristically low number of batters (6), Lee instead trolled the Braves hitters by inducing 14 ground balls (second only to his present season high of 17 in his complete game against the Cardinals) and allowing nary a walk.

Last night’s shutout makes complete game number 6 for ol’ Cliff Lee, pushing his statistics down to: 2.47 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 2.76 xFIP, and a 2.67 SIERA.

Lee ranks 3rd in ERA, 3rd in FIP, 2nd in xFIP, and 3rd in SIERA. And he now leads the majors in shutouts with 6, ahead of James Shields (4) and Derek Holland (4). In the NL, it’s not even close:

When it comes to the 2011 NL Cy Young race, it presently comes down to just three fellas: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Clayton Kershaw. Yes, one could make the case for the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and even Daniel Hudson and Matt Garza, but the Big Three are presently sporting Cy Young statistics, residing on a plateau of their own Manly Awesomeness.
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Finishing one out short of his sixth shutout of the season Wednesday night, Cliff Lee capped off a magnificent August by holding the Reds scoreless over 8 2/3 innings. He turned in the following numbers for the penultimate month of the regular season: 39 2/3 innings, 23 hits, 2 earned runs, 8 walks, 39 strikeouts.

He kept 48 percent of balls put in play on the ground and kept runners off base to the tune of a 0.78 WHIP. All told, his gaudy 0.45 on the month produced a 12 ERA-, meaning it was 88 percent better than the league.

And yet, Lee’s August paled in comparison to his June this season, when he posted a 0.21 ERA that, when normalized for season and league, actually represents the best mark for that month in the Retrosheet era. The Phillies broadcast displayed a graphic the other night showing that only three pitchers have won five or more games without losing, and with a sub-1.00 ERA in two different months: Walter Johnson, Bob Gibson and Lee. Even if the win-loss record qualifier was removed Lee would still find himself in limited company in this regard.

Overall, Lee has performed up to high expectations this year with the Phillies. Roy Halladay garners much of the attention in that dynamic rotation, but Lee has been fantastic. He has thrown 194 2/3 innings over 27 starts, with a 9.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 46 percent groundball rate and a 2.59 ERA supported by his 2.75 xFIP and 2.68 SIERA. His elite level numbers invite the question of why Clayton Kershaw, who has similar numbers, is getting plenty of award consideration, while Lee is consistently overlooked.

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The knock on Clayton Kershaw was always his control. He couldn’t throw some of his pitches for strikes and was prone to wild spells. He has pitched so spectacularly this season that some may not remember that critique.

In 198 2/3 innings, Kershaw is still striking over a batter per inning, but his walk rate has dropped to slightly over six percent of opposing hitters. While that rate isn’t in the top ten of the National League right now, it represents a marked improvement. From 2008-10, Kershaw walked 11.1 percent of the opposition, ranging from 11-13 percent over the three year span. Among senior circuit pitchers with 400 innings pitched in the span, only Jonathan Sanchez issued free passes with a greater frequency.

Missing bats was never a problem, as his career 9.4 K/9 will attest, but his filthiness proved detrimental to his command. He had the stuff to succeed but had not yet harnessed it. Thus the walks. Now those walks are a thing of the past and is he surpassing what many believed to be his potential at the ripe age of 23 years old.

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I can’t decide whether the Dodger’s situation this season is depressing, funny, or so depressing that it is funny. James Loney’s continued presence and playing time is sad/ridiculous in itself — maybe manager Don Mattingly thinks his own 1995 season with the Yankees wasn’t so bad (he was Donnie Freaking Baseball, after all!), and Loney has been almost that “good.” But today’s Donnie Baseball-related news (and we know that’s what brings you here to FanGraphs) isn’t about Loney, but about right fielder Andre Ethier.

Ethier has been playing on a bad knee that will require surgery in the off-season, and reportedly feels like the Dodgers don’t care. Unsurprisingly, neither Mattingly nor Ned ‘Snakeskin Boots‘ Colletti weren’t all that pleased about Ethier’s public comments. You can follow the links for the he said-he said. It does seem, given the situation between Ethier and management, the organization’s financial and (non-)competitive situation, and Ethier’s coming jump in salary, that he is probably on his way out as a Dodger. Unfortunately, assuming they plan on trading Ethier in the off-season, he doesn’t have all that much value.

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Earlier this season, I re-introduced the two statistics Shutdowns and Meltdowns. In short, these two stats are an alternative way of evaluating relief pitchers, providing an alternative from the age-old standbys Saves and Blown Saves. If a pitcher enters a game and makes their team more likely to win, they get credit for a Shutdown; if they make their team more likely to lose, they get a Meltdown. It’s a simple enough concept, no?

Shutdowns and Meltdowns are a great way to look at which relievers are under- or overvalued based on their Saves total, and it can also be a useful tool for evaluating middle relievers. So which relievers have are being sneakily good or bad this year? Let’s take a look.

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