Archive for Dodgers

The Astros’ Bewildering Offensive Approach

Last night, the Dodgers’ domination of the postseason continued. Winning a World Series game by two runs isn’t exactly steamrolling your opponent, but given what Clayton Kershaw, Brandon Morrow, and Kenley Jansen did to the Astros offense, the game never really felt in doubt. Houston got their only run on an Alex Bregman solo home run and never really threatened again.

The rest of their offensive production consisted of a pair of singles, but neither runner would get past first base. The Astros didn’t put a single runner in scoring position all night long. There were no rallies, no trouble out of which a Dodger pitcher had to work. Just outs, and most of them quick outs.

It took Los Angeles just 107 pitches to face 30 batters. Usually, when you see low pitch counts and quick innings, it’s because a team was overly aggressive, swinging at pitches early in counts and making quick outs. In Game 1, though, the Astros seemingly made it easy on the Dodgers by just not swinging at strikes.

Read the rest of this entry »


Clayton Kershaw’s Five Most Remarkable Pitches

People have spent a lot of time defending playoff Clayton Kershaw. This has taken place because other people have spent a lot of time attacking playoff Clayton Kershaw. To the defenders, Kershaw is anything but unclutch. He’s been a victim, a victim of randomness and a victim of sample size. To the attackers, Kershaw hasn’t shown up. Not often enough, not like normal, regular-season Clayton Kershaw. There’s that fact of the 4.40 playoff ERA. That’s where Kershaw was for his career when he woke up Tuesday morning. It’s a number that one could dismiss, but it’s not a number that one could deny. When Kershaw had pitched, there were too many runs. Forget about any weaknesses or character flaws. The argument against playoff Kershaw was simple. The stats were right there.

The Dodgers would tell you that Kershaw was redeemed in the 2016 NLDS. That’s when he came out of the bullpen on one day of rest to close out the Nationals. Kershaw himself wasn’t satisfied. There’s only one way for Kershaw to be satisfied — he needs to win the World Series. He’s internalized all the playoff runs he’s allowed. He’s tired of the frustration, and he’s tired of the defeats. There’s one thing to be done to put it all to rest. Win it all, and it’s all taken care of. The history could finally be buried and dead.

Kershaw hasn’t erased the history just yet. Not for himself. The World Series wasn’t decided by Tuesday’s Game 1. But in the biggest game Kershaw’s ever thrown, nearly every pitch was sharp, and the Astros could come up with no answer. Kershaw drove the critics backward, forcing them to wonder if maybe he’s no pumpkin after all. Kershaw struck out 11 Astros hitters. He became the first pitcher to do so all season long, and he needed only 83 pitches. In 11 previous playoff games, the Astros had struck out against the opposing starter just 35 times combined. Kershaw rendered the league-leading lineup helpless, yielding three hits and a run, without a single walk. Kershaw was Kershaw, on October 24.

Read the rest of this entry »


Something Has Gotten Into Yasiel Puig

This is classified as an InstaGraphs post. That means it’s short. For a variety of reasons, we don’t put up InstaGraphs posts much anymore, but every so often there’s a clear opportunity. I don’t have that much to say here about Yasiel Puig. I just want to show you an image.

As the Dodgers have reached the World Series, Puig has been a major contributor, batting .414 in the playoffs with a wRC+ of 210. He’s struck out just three times, and he’s done that while drawing twice as many walks. Now, let me give you some quick background. Puig has always been pretty aggressive. In 2013, he swung at an above-average rate of first pitches. In 2014, he swung at an above-average rate of first pitches. Same thing happened in 2015. Same thing happened in 2016 and then again in 2017. Puig, historically, has liked to go after the first pitch he’s seen. That’s neither good nor bad on its own; it’s just a thing. But now! Now, look at this.

This shows Puig’s entire career. This is Puig’s rolling-average first-pitch-swing rate, over progressive spans of 50 plate appearances.

It’s plummeted almost to nothing. Already, in 2017, Puig appeared slightly more patient, but now he’s far lower than ever. Puig has batted 35 times in the playoffs. He’s swung at the first pitch only twice. The first pitch has counted as a strike 37% of the time. During the season, that rate was 59%. And, in the playoffs, Puig has been ahead in the count for 45% of all the pitches he’s seen. During the season, that rate was 30%. Puig has the highest playoff rate out of anyone. It’s Yasiel Puig who’s most working the count.

As mentioned, Puig has gone after the first pitch just two times out of 35 in the playoffs. But this seemingly didn’t start right then. Over Puig’s final five regular-season games, he went after the first pitch one time out of 16. He’d gone after four of the previous 16 first pitches, and five of the previous 16 first pitches. Puig’s first-pitch aggressiveness slowed almost to a halt. And, interestingly enough, right before Puig started taking way more first pitches, he was benched for disciplinary reasons. Dave Roberts was annoyed with him. Through September 23, Puig hadn’t drawn a walk in 11 straight starts. Then he was benched. He drew three walks over the last five games, and then the playoffs happened. The discipline has carried over.

I don’t want to suggest that, all of a sudden, Yasiel Puig has a Joey Votto-like approach. I don’t think Puig has one of the best eyes in baseball. But, abruptly, roughly one month ago, Puig stopped swinging so aggressively, especially early on. He’s taken nearly every first pitch, and to this point it’s worked to his benefit. If only temporarily, the Dodgers might’ve gotten through to him. Ideally this would last forever, but, more realistically, it would be nice if it lasted another week and a half. When Puig is in control of his own zone, there’s not much he can’t do.


The Dodgers’ Minor Roster Shake-Up

We’re a few hours away from Game 1 of the World Series, which means we have a few hours to analyze the World Series rosters that were released this afternoon.

The Astros are making no changes to their roster. The same 25 players who were a part of the ALCS roster will also have a World Series experience.

Perhaps the intrigue with the Astros’ World Series roster is whether A.J. Hinch will actually trust his bullpen, a subject Dave tackled earlier today. Also of some interest is the distribution of lefties and righties in Houston’s staff: only two of the former, Dallas Keuchel and Francisco Liriano, will be available for Hinch for the duration of the Series. Perhaps that’s a good thing: as I noted in a post examining the Dallas Keuchel’s Game 1 start, the Dodgers typically crush lefties.

Read the rest of this entry »


Does Prep Work Change for the World Series?

The final moments of preparation are underway as the Dodgers and Astros get ready for tonight’s Game 1 of the World Series. On the one hand, it represents baseball’s biggest stage. For the players, however, it’s also the game they’ve been playing forever. When it comes to getting ready, do they prepare like usual? Or is it a contest that requires greater planning than any other?

We went to the players (and a coach) to ask if their routines had been altered at all and if they’d been poring over the data before tonight’s game.

———

Dave Hudgens, Astros Hitting Coach: “I was thinking about that earlier in the day, and I was thinking, ‘I want to do the same thing everyday as I do for this game.’ That’s what I try to do. You don’t want to do anything different. Okay, now it’s important so I’m going to do more? I’m going to do the same thing, these guys are doing their same routine, going about their jobs the same way.

Read the rest of this entry »


It’s Time for the Astros to Trust Their Relievers

The World Series kicks off tonight with a battle of elite left-handed starters, Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. The game will also feature the two best offenses in MLB this year. And yet, for all the talent on the field to begin the game, the series may very well hinge on whether A.J. Hinch is willing to once again trust his bullpen.

During the regular season, the Astros’ relief corps was better than their reputation suggests. As a group, they posted the second-highest strikeout rate of any bullpen, and while their 101 ERA- was a bit below average, their 84 xFIP- was second only to the Indians.

Read the rest of this entry »


Dallas Keuchel and the Dodgers Are Ideological Opposites

Dallas Keuchel will throw his sinker low. How will L.A.’s offense respond? (Photo: Keith Allison)

I know some of you are disappointed not to be seeing The Hottest Pitcher in the Game (Justin Verlander) face perhaps The Best Pitcher in the Game (Clayton Kershaw) in tonight’s World Series opener.

We’ll have to settle instead for the 2015 AL Cy Young winner, Dallas Keuchel, against the Dodgers’ three-time Cy Young winner.

Many eyes will be trained on Kershaw to see if he can improve the one blemish on his resume — postseason performance — and produce a legacy-building outing on the game’s greatest stage.

But the Game 1 undercard, Keuchel versus the Dodgers, is fascinating matchup in its own right.

For starters, it will largely represent a meeting of strangers. Keuchel has never faced Los Angeles. Of the Dodgers most likely to appear on the club’s World Series roster, only three have ever faced Keuchel, for a total of just 27 career regular-season at-bats versus Keuchel. Logan Forsythe is responsible for 20 of those due to his experience with Tampa Bay. He’s recorded seven hits. Chris Taylor has faced him three times (0-for-3), though as a different player with a different swing, and Chase Utley has one hit in four career at-bats versus the left-hander. (The current Astros squad has 81 collective at-bats against Kershaw.)

Read the rest of this entry »


Expect the World Series Strike Zone to Favor the Dodgers

This should be a great World Series in large part because it’s so hard to separate the two pennant winners. The Dodgers won 104 games, but the Astros won 101. The Astros outscored their opponents by 196 runs, but the Dodgers outscored theirs by 190. The Dodgers have the possible advantage of rest, but the Astros have the possible advantage of momentum. The Astros got a midseason bump from adding Justin Verlander, but the Dodgers got a midseason bump from adding Yu Darvish. Say, the Astros might have found something by using Lance McCullers out of the bullpen. But the Dodgers have also found something by doing the same with Kenta Maeda.

When I rated all the playoff teams three weeks ago, I found the Dodgers looked the best, but the Astros were right on their heels. There’s just not much of a gap, no matter where you look. As such, I don’t think one could pick a clear favorite. Maybe you give the edge to the Dodgers, just because they could play one extra game at home. Or maybe you give the edge to the Dodgers, just because they could get the better strike zone. That’s one of the only real differences here. Technically, such a difference shouldn’t even exist, but we know that zones aren’t perfectly called or consistent, and the Dodgers have a history.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Dodgers Have Made It Look Way Too Easy

The Dodgers have won two playoff series, but they aren’t undefeated. Remember that the Cubs beat them by a run in NLCS Game 4. Other teams have somewhat recently advanced to the World Series without having lost. Back in 2007, the Rockies swept the NLCS, after they swept the NLDS, after they took a one-game playoff over the Padres. And in 2014, the Royals swept the ALCS, after they swept the ALDS, after they took a one-game playoff over the A’s. The Dodgers are one of six teams in the wild-card era to make the World Series by going 7-1.

And it’s not like the Dodgers have even made every win a laugher. Their most recent game was kind of the exception. In Game 2 of the NLDS, they fell behind the Diamondbacks early. In the NLCS, they trailed the Cubs by a couple runs in Game 1, and in Game 2 Justin Turner won it in the bottom of the ninth. Some nails have been bitten. The Dodgers haven’t looked completely invincible.

On the other hand, they have looked completely invincible. When you look at the numbers overall, it seems like the Dodgers have coasted. They’ve turned this postseason into a statistical mismatch.

Read the rest of this entry »


Kenley Jansen Is Marvelous

Kenley Jansen has only been charged with earned runs in two of his 24 career postseason appearances.
(Photo: TonyTheTiger)

Kenley Jansen certainly hasn’t been ignored around here. Back in June, for instance, Travis looked at how Jansen’s reliance on a single pitch compares to Mariano Rivera’s. And yet, I still feel like we don’t really appreciate just how great Jansen really is. Throughout this postseason, so much of the focus seems to go to Clayton Kershaw and Justin Turner. Or if not them, then colorful characters like Yasiel Puig or feel-good stories like Chris Taylor. Often, Jansen feels lost. Now, maybe that’s just a case of me miscalculating the extent of the coverage he receives or just being far too tired to think straight by the time Jansen gets into games, but I feel like the big righty is a little underappreciated. But if he performs the way that he’s been performing, that may change for good this week.

Read the rest of this entry »