After giving up five runs in five innings in Seattle on Saturday, Tim Lincecum’s ERA now stands at 6.19. However, his 3.87 FIP and 3.82 xFIP stand in stark contrast to that mark, and his walk rate, strikeout rate, and home run (or fly ball) rate suggest that his process and results haven’t lined up in the season’s first two months. You can essentially trace the cause of his runs allowed to a .330 BABIP and an 11.4% HR/FB ratio, both of which are categories that have wide variation and less predictive value than more core metrics. In fact, many times, you’ll hear a pitcher who is at one extreme in either BABIP or HR/FB be referred to as being either lucky or unlucky, depending on which side of the spectrum they’re residing on at the moment.

That’s no question that FanGraphs is a contributor to those kinds of statements, as we’ve long supported the idea that pitchers should be evaluated more by their ability to throw strikes and either miss bats or get batters to hit the ball on the ground than they are by the outcomes of when a batter does make contact. We’ve used the term luck to describe fluctuations in BABIP or HR/FB, so any critiques I make about the use of that word are as introspective as they are anything else. But, that said, I do want to suggest that using the word luck to describe Tim Lincecum’s early season results is probably doing a disservice his actual performance.

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A number of pitchers with noticeably lower velocity this year either have landed on the disabled list or have had their seasons cut short due to injury. The Pirates’ Charlie Morton had Tommy John surgery (age 28, down 1.5 mph). The Tigers’ Doug Fister (age 28, down 1.1 mph) and the Blue Jays’ Brandon Morrow (age 27, down 1 mph) have both landed on the DL with oblique injuries. And the White Sox’ John Danks (age 27, down 1.5 mph) just started a stint on the DL due to elbow soreness.

Previously, I found that pitchers who lose at least 1 mph of velocity have over twice the odds of not throwing at least 40 innings in the subsequent year. This could simply be due to ineffectiveness, injury or both. A steep decline in velocity can create — or be a signal for — all sorts of problems. If a pitcher loses velocity simply due to a tired arm, they can increase their chance for injury by trying to pitch through it. Losing velocity also tends to make pitchers less effective over time. And once a pitcher loses velocity, the odds of regaining at least some of it the following year are very low (more on this below).

Today, I want to look at how age impacts the chances of regaining velocity for pitchers and then highlight some hurlers who fans should keep their eyes on this year and next year.

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Matt Cain threw a perfect game Wednesday night, the first one in the 128-year history of the Giants franchise. Just moments after the game ended, Dave Cameron provided some historical context on Cain’s pitching performance, looking at the highest GameScores in baseball history. I’ve had a bit more time for reflection.

If you read my posts regularly, you know I’m a Giants fan. A passionate, analytical, demanding Giants fan. I watch or listen to nearly every game. I pore over numbers and charts. I conjure trades and free-agent signings, and despair when they don’t come to fruition. I complain about lineups and bullpen usage and Brandon Belt not getting enough playing time. Yes, a lot of complaining about Brandon Belt. You do the same for your favorite team. We love baseball. We love our team. It’s what we do.

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After yesterday’s 12-strikeout, no-walk complete game from R.A. Dickey, the league’s best knuckleballer moved into position with the MLB’s fourth-best xFIP, the MLB’s fourth-best ERA, and the 10th-best ERA-minus among historical knuckleballers.

Advanced stats can sometimes fail us with knuckleballers because they produce especially weak contact. In his most recent start, Dickey got 10 ground outs, 1 weak single that may get ruled an error, and 1 infield fly ball. So naturally, FIP and xFIP under-appreciate Dickey to a certain extent, but does that mean he should be in consideration for a Cy Young award?

Yes. Probably very much: Yes.
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Matt Cain just threw the 22nd perfect game in baseball history, which is of course an amazing accomplishment. But, through the way he dominated on the way to his perfect game, Cain actually joined an even more exclusive club – guys who have posted a Game Score above 100 in a nine inning game.

Before tonight, only nine pitchers had ever racked up a game score of 100 or better in nine innings. It was more common back when starters kept going when a game went to extras, but we want to compare apples to apples, so those are out. Sorted by Game Score — an imperfect measure, for certain, but one that does okay for this purpose — here are the 10 best nine inning performances of all time.

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Jeremy Affeldt is left-handed relief pitcher for the San Francisco Giants. Some, including me, have referred to him as a LOOGY (Lefty One-Out GuY) over the years, but that’s not entirely the case. This is Affeldt’s fourth season with the Giants, his eleventh overall in the majors. The only season with the Giants in which he’s been more effective against left-handed batters than righties was 2011, as measured by K/BB, wOBA and FIP.
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The Arizona Diamondbacks placed utility infielder Cody Ransom on waivers earlier this week. On Thursday, the Milwaukee Brewers claimed Ransom and added him to their active roster. A commonplace transaction, repeated hundreds of times throughout the baseball season. Oh, but when it comes to Cody Ransom, nothing is commonplace.

When Ransom plays in his first game for the Brewers, he will hold an interesting distinction. You see, the Brewers are Ransom’s 6th major-league team. Okay, that’s not terribly unusual. Lots of players have played for 6 or more teams. But in the Expansion Era (1961 to the present), no player who’s played for 6 or more major-league teams has had 8 or more seasons in which he’s played 35 games or fewer.

Allow me to explain.

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…because you come here for the super clever post titles. No one has ever played off of the Melk/milk thing before, right?

Melky Cabrera is at it again. After a disastrous 2010 season in Atlanta, the Melk-Man (BOOM! It’s like MILK-Man, get it?) bounced back for a career year with the Royals in 2011. He was a good bet to regress, right? The Royals, who had Lorenzo Cain on deck, traded Cabrera to the Giants for much-needed pitching help in the form of one Jonathan Sanchez. So, how’s that going? It actually seemed like a fair need-for-need trade at the time, but while Sanchez has crashed, burned, and gotten hurt in Kansas City, Cabrera has been on fire in San Francisco. He’s been so good so far this season, that the team is reportedly already considering an in-season extension. Is Cabrera a different player than he used to be? How much would a reasonable extension be?

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Right-hander Ryan Vogelsong proved to be one of the feel-good stories of the year in 2011.

The 34-year-old owned an unsightly career 5.86 ERA through 315 major-league innings with the San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates coming into the 2011 season. He then seemingly flipped a switch and handcuffed the league with a 2.71 ERA and 3.67 FIP over 179.2 innings for the Giants and became a key part of their starting rotation.

That success has trickled into the 2012 season. Vogelsong tossed 7.1 innings against the Dodgers on Tuesday evening, surrendering only one run on eight scattered hits and one strikeout. That lowered his season ERA to 2.94 and his FIP to 3.51, both of which are better than average in the National League thus far in 2012.

Moving forward, though, this rags-to-riches story has some significant hurdles to overcome.

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Led by Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval, the San Francisco Giants offense has actually been decent this year. Their 95 wRC+ ranks them 8th in the National League, thanks in large part to the contributions of Buster Posey (.342/.400/.575) and Pablo Sandoval (.316/.375/.537). Melky Cabrera has been good, and the team has gotten production from the Brandon Belt/Brett Pill platoon when they’ve played, but the offense has been driven by the consistent thumping of Posey and Sandoval.

Their depth is about to be tested, however, as Hank Schulman is reporting that Sandoval has a broken hamate bone in his wrist. He had this same issue last year – only this year, it’s the other hand – and he missed 41 games over six weeks while recovering from the injury.

The effects of the injury seemed to linger even after he returned, however. Here are his monthly wRC+ splits from last year:

April: 147
May: DL
June: 77
July: 149
August: 124
September: 209

Hand and wrist injuries are notorious power sappers, and Sandoval had just five extra base hits in 70 plate appearances in June. His power returned in the second half, and he was one of the best hitters in baseball down the stretch, so this shouldn’t derail him for the whole season, but if last year is any indicator of how the injury will affect him, this will likely be a problem for him until the All-Star break.

So, for the next couple of months, the Giants are going to have to get their offense elsewhere. Conor Gillaspie is expected to be recalled to take his place on the roster, but the Giants might need to look outside the organization for additional help. Perhaps the logical place to look would be for a player who can play both third base and shortstop, giving them the flexibility of replacing Brandon Crawford with the new acquisition once Sandoval returns. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ned Colletti was already on the phone offering Juan Uribe back to the Giants…