Based on traditional metrics like wins, losses, and ERA, Justin Masterson has been a below-average starting pitcher during the past two seasons. With a 10-23 record, and an ERA above 4.50, the former prospect looked like a superficial candidate for the label of “bust”. But defensive independent metrics suggested Masterson was a quality starter — who struggled shaking the luck dragons known as left-on base percentage (LOB%) and batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

In 2009 and 2010, the right-hander’s average on balls in play was roughly 25% more than the league average, which came despite a fantastic groundball rate. It certainly did not help that most of those groundballs came in front of the second worst defense in the league during the same period. With an increased amount of balls finding holes, his strand rate fell about 6% below the average of his peers.

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When you’re sitting on top of the world, it’s sometimes easy to overlook the flaws. The Cleveland Indians, at 14-8, currently own the AL’s best record and lead their division by 2.5 games. While we’re a long way from anointing them 2011’s surprise team, they certainly have impressed to this point. Their 5.18 runs per game actually ranks second in the AL (though only a hundredth of a point ahead of Texas). Yet amid all that, they haven’t yet clicked on all cylinders. That’s because Carlos Santana has gotten off to something of a slow start. But there are plenty of indications that his approach will pay off in the long run.

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Heading into this past weekend, Indians fans were already abuzz. Then the Tribe went out and swept the Orioles.

As a result, when baseball fans awoke this morning, only three teams were in the top 11 in both offensive and pitching WAR. Two were preseason contenders, the Philadelphia Phillies (11th among position players, first among pitchers) and Colorado Rockies (third and third). The other was the fightin’ Cleveland Indians. And, for good measure, yesterday’s game also featured the triumphant return of Grady Sizemore.

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At least Nick Punto could fly.

Today’s edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Previews of two games, with sexy, updated Team NERD scores and sexy, updated ZiPS projections.

2. Notes on a third game you shouldn’t watch.

3. A poll on what’s the most depressing thing about the current iteration of the Twins.

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Cleveland fans have a rough life. It seems like all their sports success is tainted with pain: the Cavs were good in the 2000s, but then LeBron James dissed them on national television; the Browns were good in the 1980s, but they consistently lost in heart-breaking fashion in the playoffs and have only had three winning seasons since; and the Indians were great in the late 1990s, but haven’t won a World Series since 1948. There are many markets in the running for the title of “most miserable fans,” and while I won’t go so far as to crown a winner, I think Cleveland has a case to be considered among the best (worst?) of them.

So it should come as no surprise that after the Indians’ hot start, which has included an eight-game winning streak and a sweep of the Boston Red Sox at home, some Cleveland fans are already talking about being buyers at the trade deadline and making a run for the playoffs. While obviously it’s waaay too early in the season to be making such pronouncements, is there reason for hope in Cleveland this season?

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If you haven’t taken a statistics class, regression can be rather tricky to grasp at first. It’s a word you’ll hear bantered about frequently on sabermetrically inclined websites, especially during the beginning of the season: “Oh, Albert Pujols is hitting .200, but it’s early so he’s bound to regress.” “Nick Hundley is slugging over .700, but that’s sure to regress.” This seems like a straightforward concept on the surface – good players that are underperforming are bound to improve, and over-performing scrubs will eventually cool down – but it leaves out an important piece of information: regress to what level?

The common mistake is to assume that if a good player has been underperforming, their “regression” will consist of them hitting .400 and bringing their overall line up to the level of their preseason projections. I like to call this the “overcorrection fallacy”, the belief that players will somehow compensate for their hot or cold performances by reverting to the other extreme going forward. While that may happen in select instances, it’s not what “regression” actually means. Instead, when someone says a player is likely to regress, they mean that the player should be expected to perform closer to their true talent level going forward.

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The Cleveland Indians have scored the third-most runs per game in the American League. That’s one line I never expected to type, no matter how early in the season. What’s more, they’ve already swept the Boston Red Sox, and have won their last eight games after dropping their first two. While the pitching staff has certainly done its job, the offense has stepped up big time. A number of guys are contributing in big ways, but perhaps none has advanced his team more than Asdrubal Cabrera.

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It was a rough year by the lake, and as a result, the Indians have dropped from 13th in our rankings a year ago, to 26th this season, one of the largest drops in our rankings (Arizona also dropped 13 spots). Heck, they couldn’t even turn a profit during their ingenious Snow Days event.

Present Talent – 67.50 (27th)

Indians Season Preview

Future Talent – 80.00 (19th)

Indians Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 71.15 (24th)
Baseball Operations – 80.00 (13th)

Overall Rating – 73.60 (26th)

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With some nice pieces in place for the future, the Indians enter the season with the league’s youngest 40-man roster. Even though someone predicted that the Indians would win the AL Central last year, they didn’t come close to that benchmark and just missed the AL Central cellar. Going into 2011, they will need to improve both their hitting (75 runs scored below the league average) and pitching (36 runs allowed above the league average) without many additions to the team

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