Trade Targets: Starting Pitchers
Every season, there’s always one thing in demand at the trade deadline — starting pitching. Nearly every contender outside of Philadelphia is in the hunt for another rotation arm, and the demand always outstrips the supply. While there’s no Cliff Lee on the block this year, there are still some interesting arms who could make a difference down the stretch. Here are the best candidates:
PLAYER: Edwin Jackson
TEAM: White Sox
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Yankees, Red Sox, Reds
CONTRACT STATUS: $8.35 million, free agent at end of year
PROJECTED WAR: 1.8
The White Sox might end up trading Jackson even if they get back in the race for the AL Central title, as they currently have six starting pitchers for just five slots. Jackson is no stranger to changing teams, as he’s been dealt by Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Arizona since arriving in the Major Leagues. Given the White Sox surplus of arms and his impending free agency, he’s a good bet to be packing his bags once again.
Assessing his trade value is something of a challenge, however. His stuff has never been in question, but his performances have been erratic at best. Over the last few years, he’s never been able to get his peripherals and his results to match up. When his ERA has been low, his peripherals haven’t supported it. When his strikeout rate rose upon arrival in Chicago, so did his ERA — thanks to an inflated BABIP that is still giving him problems this year.
He’s long been viewed as something of an underachiever, and his current middling ERA despite good secondary numbers won’t help debunk the label. With Scott Boras as his representative and free agency looming at year’s end, he’s clearly going to be a rental, and it’s tough to imagine a team being willing to give up the farm for a guy who is a bit of a wild card.
The teams most likely to take a shot on Jackson are the ones who can afford to absorb some risk – the Yankees and Red Sox both have the depth to not need Jackson should he flop, but could use another high octane arm for the postseason. The Reds might not seem like they’re in need of a starter, but could cash in some of their excess talent in order to try and upgrade the front of their rotation. Teams that need stability will shop elsewhere, but someone will take a flyer on Jackson’s arm and hope that he finally puts it all together.
PLAYER: Jeremy Guthrie
TEAM: Orioles
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Yankees, Indians, Diamondbacks, Tigers
CONTRACT STATUS: $5.75 million, arbitration eligible
PROJECTED WAR: 1.3
The Orioles might say publicly that Guthrie’s not available, but there’s never been a better time to move him. At 32, Guthrie isn’t exactly part of the young core that Andy MacPhail has built up in Baltimore, and this is the last year where his salary won’t significantly weigh down his value. The Orioles could market him as more-than-a-rental, since he’s under team control through the end of the 2012 season, but the Orioles shouldn’t be overly interested in giving Guthrie the kind of raise in arbitration he’ll command after a strong showing this season.
While every team in the market for a starter will likely check in on Guthrie’s availability, perhaps no team makes more sense as a landing spot than Cleveland. Guthrie came up through the Indians system, and his status as a strike-throwing innings-eater is exactly what they need to stabilize their rotation for the stretch run. His salary isn’t prohibitive this year, and the Indians could always move him again this winter if they didn’t want to give him his arbitration raise either.
He’s not a front-line starter, but he’s durable and has proven he can get outs in the toughest division in baseball. Toss in an easy-to-swallow 2011 salary and Guthrie is a good fit for a lot of teams. The Orioles would be wise to deal him now because his value will never be higher and the prospects they will be able to acquire will be worth more than another year and a half of his services to their organization.
PLAYER: Jason Marquis
TEAM: Nationals
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Indians, Tigers
CONTRACT STATUS: $7.5 million, free agent at end of year.
PROJECTED WAR: 1.1
The low-rent version of Jeremy Guthrie, Marquis seems likely to be the fallback plan for those who might not want to pay Baltimore’s asking price for this kind of pitcher. You know exactly what you’re getting with Marquis, who is a classic ground-balling innings-eater. He’ll give you a solid performance and pitch deep enough into games to take the pressure off of a bullpen, but he’s the kind of guy you only want to throw once in a playoff series.
With an expiring contract and a $7.5 million salary for 2011, Marquis is a rental player with a not-horrible price tag, but there’s not a ton of upside here, so teams likely won’t be willing to give up much in the way of high-end talent to get a few months worth of starts from him. If Cleveland or Detroit decide that they’d rather hang onto the prospects they have and make marginal upgrades rather than a big splash, Marquis could be a good target to focus on.
PLAYER: Erik Bedard
TEAM: Mariners
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Yankees, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Indians
CONTRACT STATUS: $1 million base + incentives, free agent at end of year
PROJECTED WAR: 0.7
While the Mariners aren’t looking to move Bedard right now, they could shift gears if the team falls out of the race between now and the end of July. On a per-innings pitched basis, Bedard might just be the best starter on the market as a lefty who can miss bats and has a legitimate knockout curveball. However, Bedard’s health problems will seriously dampen enthusiasm for potential suitors, as he hasn’t thrown an inning in September since 2007. While he’s seemingly healthy now, his performance this year is similar to his 2009 season — one that ended with him walking off the field in July and not pitching for another 18 months.
He’s an interesting upside play for teams who might want a southpaw who could slide into the front of their rotation, but his lack of durability is a huge red flag. Can any team really project Bedard to be pitching well deep into October when his career high in innings pitched is 196, and that was several surgeries ago? And would the Mariners be willing to move a pitcher who is contributing when they’re on track to return some degree of respectability to the franchise? There are a lot of reasons to think that Bedard might not be traded this summer, but if he does hit the market, teams will have to have some very interesting conversations about his value down the stretch.
PLAYER: Kevin Slowey
TEAM: Twins
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): ?
CONTRACT STATUS: $2.7 million, arbitration eligible
PROJECTED WAR: 0.5
Like Bedard, Slowey’s health is going to be the main topic of discussion surrounding his availability. The Twins have made it known that Slowey could be had by anyone interested, and the asking price is likely to be quite low given his recurring health problems. When he’s on the mound, Slowey has been an effective pitcher, and, at 27, he seemingly has some future value beyond just 2011.
However, as an extreme fly-ball pitcher who survives by just pounding the strike zone with mediocre stuff, teams are going to see a low-upside #5 starter who can’t stay healthy. There are certainly cities in which Slowey could thrive if he could avoid the disabled list, but despite the Twins making him available, it’s tough to identify any contenders who would want to give him a shot in the midst of a pennant chase.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I wouldn’t go after Bedard if I was the Yankees, Jack Z might want Jesus Montero for him. This is the same guy who wanted Austin Jackson for Jarrod Washburn.
That Jack Z guy is crazy. He turned down Montero (hitting .302/.337/.429 in AAA this year) and took Justin Smoak (hitting .246/.341/.464 in MLB this year) instead.
Not only is Smoak doing that in the Majors, but he’s doing it in one of the worst hitters parks in the world.
Meh. I’m a Yankees’ fan, and I’m ok with the Smoak over Montero decision. As prospects, they were essentially a wash. And it’s better to take the prospect from the division rival than the non-division rival.
I thought it was a strange decision, but you make it sound like there is something wrong with Smoak having a higher OPS in the pros than Montero has in AAA.
I think CMC was being sarcastic… right? I mean, by citing slash lines that where SMoak has a better OBP and SLG in the majors.
Crazy like a fox!
Obviously Stags is being sarcastic…
How we managed to arrive at a world that contains the internet but no widely-used sarcasm punctuation just amazes me. Al Gore really overlooked that one.
I’m just saying that everytime Jack Z deals with the Yankees he asks for their best prospects and then settles for less from another team. For example when he traded Washburn a few years ago, back then Austin Jackson was considered the top prospect in the Yankees farm system and wanted him for Jarrod Washburn who is now no longer in baseball. The Yankees said no, and then settles for a slice of cheesecake and a bucket of balls from the Tigers.
RBI Baseball, have you considered that the reason that Jack Z asks for the Yankees’ best prospects and then takes other teams’ lesser prospects is because the Yankees just don’t have very good prospects?
@RBI: When bargaining, you set your asking price high. You may not even get a Justin Smoak if you don’t ask for a Montero. You have to convince the market that your Cliff Lee is valuable and you won’t settle for crap.
One of those prospects projected as a 1B, one (albeit dubiously) as a C.
Unless you think positional adjustments are meaningless in MLB. In which case, carry on with your questionable comparison.
I’m not raging on the Cliff Lee deal at all, I’m just saying that he wanted Austin Jackson for Jarrod Washburn which was unreasonable to ask for at the time. What would you rather have a half year rental for Jarrod Washburn or Curtis Granderson.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/jarrod-washburn-rumors-friday.html
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/08/rosenthals-full-count-video-yankees-dodgers-pirates.html
This is why I dislike Jack Z, I’m not making this up. Instead he settles on Luke French and another prospect.
Actually, the Yankees have great prospects. No sarcasm needed there. And Justin Smoak is three years older than Montero. Just about every single talent evaluation I’ve seen pegs Montero as a better hitter, regardless of how you choose to cherrypick how’s he’s hitting during certain parts of certain seasons.
The sources reported whom the Mariners wanted in exchange for Jarrod Washburn in 2009, but whom did the Yankees offer?
Was the Yankee offer better than lefty Luke French, who went 11-3 with a 2.94 ERA last season as a 23-year-old in Triple A, and lefty Mauricio Robles, who averaged more than a strikeout per inning last season as a 21-year-old between Double A and Triple A? Baseball America has Robles ranked as Seattle’s sixth-best prospect while Jon Sickels has Robles at No.5 in the organization. French has lost his prospect status.
Frank says: “And Justin Smoak is three years older than Montero.”
I can’t argue that different hitters develop at different paces. Heck, just look at Eric Hosmer, who is only one month older than Jesus Montero.
Well I don’t think Dayton Moore and the Royals will be able to pry him away in exchange for Joakim Soria as the Yankees tried to do last year, seeing how that situation has developed in Kansas City…
There has been a lot of talk in Braves world about Jiar J’s trade value considering the surplus of starting talent the Braves have coming up and the Boras-ness-nessity of his representation. What kind of mid-season/ post-season value would he carry?
I think I would rather make a deal for JJ than Edwin Jackson at this point.
Why in the world would the Braves deal JJ in the midst of a playoff chase? If they’re dealing, they will be loading, not unloading.
johan santana could be an interesting piece too. everyone seems to be expecting a firesale from my mets, and the guy is due back in july or august. even with some injury risk the dude is likely better than every name on the list above. and with their state right now the mets would likely eat a chunk of his salary in return for the savings and a few prospects.
Nobody is going to take a chance on Santana coming back from injury.
johan would have to prove himself healthy the rest of this year, then be traded in the offseason- at least, that’s the expectation I’ve heard expressed
The other thing for the M’s to consider when discussing dealing Bédard is that he has the potential to be a type A free agent, based on his work this year and his pro-rated half of 2009.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/elias-rankings/
Erik Bedard’s score is 37.405 and there are about 30 pitchers in front of him before he even attains Type B status.
Jason, thank you for these facts.
Your facts have no place on these internets, other Jason. Its all scurrilous innuendo and impugning the cocksmanship of total strangers with lengthy, poorly worded diatribes. C’mon now.
John Danks has shown a desire to test free agency and can probably be had for the right package. Even with his miserable May he has been very consistent through his career and might bring back more than Jackson.
Sox have to dump Jackson though, because there’s less than zero chance of retaining him, and he’ll only be type B. With absolutely no internal options on the farm, I think they have to either retain Danks one more year or resign Buerhle if they want a shot at contention in 2012. Keeping Danks and the ability to dump him for a bit less next year seems to be the better option, in my opinon. 2012 rotation then looks like:
SP Danks
SP Peavy
SP Floyd
SP Humber
SP Sale
Assuming no injuries or complete meltdowns, that’s actually quite serviceable for the AL central.
LOL, yeah let’s assume no injuries to Peavy!
The Braves are a contender definitely in the “supply” side of rotation arms, rather than the “demand” side. And they could use help in CF and/or the bench– or .
Ideally there’s an aging and overpaid yet competent CF out there for a team that could use an aging and overpaid yet competent SP in Derek Lowe. There isn’t a match like that though, so maybe a young cost controlled CF in exchange for a young, cost controlled SP like Jurrjens.
Yeah…people have been throwing around Gardner’s name, based on nothing but desire. I can kinda see it–he’d be a minor upgrade over McLouth (although how’s his defense?), but McLouth hasn’t been quite the disaster area he was last season anyway, so the need’s probably not so pressing. Still, in terms of setting themselves up for some time to come, it could be a very nice match; presumably, the Yanks wouldn’t do it straight up, but Jurrjens plus a non-Teheran pitching prospect might get it done.
I was sort of thinking the BRAVES wouldn’t do it straight up.
I think that trade is fine straight up.
I think that’s one of the most fair pitcher-for-position-player trade ideas I’ve heard, which means that it won’t happen. If anything, I don’t take the deal as the Yankees because I think SP have vastly overrated value over the course of a season compared to everyday position players.
I think both Gardner and Jurrjens are either underrated or overrated by many folks. Let’s face it, neither is stand-out superb, but Jurrjens is a solid #2/3 type pitcher, while Gardner is a good OBP, bad power, excellent defensive OF.
Can’t see JJ for a guy like Gardner. I know Jurrjens doesn’t satisfy some of the peripheral-stat lovers, but he’s a solid 2 on his way to #1 status. Take away an injury riddled 2010, and he’s a 200 inning, 3 ERA pitcher (and that’s over about 500 innings).
Gardner is a nice player, but I don’t think that’s a fair return for Jurrjens. And I don’t really see the Braves trading a 25-year-old top of the rotation starter, anyway.
Mike Cameron? Does Derek Lowe miss Boston?
Well, there’s an idea.
I sense that both NY and Boston have made inquiries on Lowe, and LA would love to dump that money but it’s a cat-n-mouse game presently where neither interested team wants to eat that $20 mil, but LA thinks that if they wait a bit longer one of them will be forced to take him anyway.
I don’t care if NY’s pitching, to date, is fine. It’s gonna suck sooner or later because it’s held together with tape and baby embryos. And Bos is one more injury (maybe Buchholz) away from sending LA Reddick and assuming Lowe’s entire contract.
As far as Gardner for Jurrjens, well, that’s just nuts. Jurrjens is worth more than a defensive outfielder who can’t hit.
What about Dempster? Too much money?
NTC + really likes Chicago + bad April + significant cash + player option for next year = difficult to trade
I don’t think that will stop the Cubs from trying. Ditto Zambrano.
Francisco Liriano? He says he’s feeling great now, and if he gets it going he’ll be a huge impact player.
Agreed, I think Smith will deal both Slowey and Liriano. Not dealing Slowey in the offseason was a mistake in foresight. Not dealing Liriano in the offseason was a mistake in hindsight, if you catch my meaning.
No Wandy Rodriguez?
Thats what I came here to post. Surprised he was not include.
I don’t think Cleveland will be interested in Guthrie unless they speak to him beforehand. He refuses to sign any baseball cards of him in an Indians uniform because he believes they never gave him a shot. Maybe that grudge disappeared, but…
I’ve heard the same thing, and it’s worth noting that the guy who traded him (Shapiro) is still the team President.
Plus, he’s cheap and under team control for another year, in what looks like a weak trade crop of starting pitchers. The bidding won’t be insane, but he’ll net a decent crop of mid-level prospects. From comments Mark Shapiro and Antonetti have made recently, I don’t think they plan on trading away any significant pieces of their future. Maybe Cord Phelps, if they feel Jason Kipnis makes him redundant.
The only way I’d see them trading for Guthrie is if they had a trade lined up for Carmona, where they felt they’d get a similar haul to what they gave up.
The Orioles have been pretty clear that they aren’t interested in trading Guthrie unless the return is significant. I think they’re going to want a top-5 prospect, a mid-level guy, and a throw-in. Something like /White, Pomeranz, or Weglarz/Phelps, Scott Barnes, or Austin Adams/C-level bullpen guy.
It’s probably more than he is “worth,” but he’s the best pitcher on the trade market this year (unless you want to roll the injury dice with Bedard) and the Orioles don’t HAVE to trade him, after all.
Maybe the grudge has disappeared, but I can understand the sentiment. He wasn’t given any kind of real fair shot (he did struggle at times w/Cleveland) and they didn’t know what to do with him. I seem to recall some kind of contract/options situation with him. The Indians didn’t know what to do with him, so they waived him. Baltimore on the other hand knew exactly what to do with him.
Guthrie has enough good will with the Orioles that if he really doesn’t want to be traded to Cleveland, I could see them honoring that request.
Thank god Derek Lowe wasn’t listed. It’s certainly possible, but if the Braves feel they can contend they’re likely not moving any non-rookie starting pitcher in their rotation. Doing so would force two rookies in the rotation down the stretch, and that’s something I highly doubt they’ll go for.
If the Braves trade a notable starter or two, it’ll be Delgado, Minor, Beachy, or Vizcaino. I mean, unless they receive an overwhelming offer for Lowe or Jurrjens……..which won’t happen.
The Braves have shown a lot of confidence so far in Minor and Beachy, and they’re pretty much at payroll. I have a hard time seeing them being able to move one of those guys without adding payroll. I think it’s either Jair for someone of equal price/value or Lowe for a less valuable player or an overpaid one where the salaries are a wash.
Thr only way I change my mind is if Scafer’s injury today is remotely serious, in which case they may well add Payroll to replacehim and McLouth.
I don’t think they’d trade Jair. They seem to really like him. He’s a learner with control. They like that sort of thing. Not only that but Jair is pretty valuable. If Jair slumps then mabe, but these first few months of Jair pretty much prevent him from being traded. Jair is cheap and young and proven and good. Teams don’t trade that. I know that Jair’s FIP supposedly shows that he’s pitching with luck (which he’s apparently been doing since he started), but the Braves seem to have more confidence in him than that.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t discount Jair like some do, but he’s probably a valuable enough commodity to return a significant peice for the Braves. I’m not gonna say Beachy or Minir are ready to take his place right now, but the drop off could be off-set and the right trade could bring a player who would be on the team when Teheran is up. A Jair trade could make a lot of since, but it’d have to be the right one.
Does Vogelsong have any trade value for the Giants?
Or does everyone basically assume he will turn back into a pumpkin on any other team?
Why would the Giants trade him?
Surkamp, Zito coming back and being untradeable..
Not that I think they should trade him but I am more curious about whether because of his performance this year compared with last year if he has any trade value at all.
I can’t see Detroit wanting to add any pitching when they have legit options in AAA
I agree. There is no way Detroit will look to trade for a bottom of the rotation starter with all the talent they have waiting in the wings. Oliver, Furbush, Wilk are legitimate options. Also they have Jacob Turner who will challenge for a spot next year. And Casey Crosby is rebounding this year.
Trust us. Those of us who have the pulse of the team know better.
I’m not really sure that Edwin Jackson will be worth it for the reds – they have plenty of depth and hes just not a frontline starter – not to mention he seems to really prefer the AL
If the Reds go after a pitcher, they need to get a proven ace and not another wildcard. Haren/Lee type guys are not available this deadline, so I wouldn’t go trading for a pitcher if I were the Reds. They need a LF or a SS and try to win with offense.
What about Kuroda? Pitching acceptably well for a team that’s going nowhere and having difficulty making payroll. Free agent after this year.
I like Kuroda for many of these teams, like the Yanks, but I think he has a no-trade. Even still he should’ve been mentioned.
Chad Billingsley is another guy who I’d want very, very badly if I were the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, etc. He’s got durability, good stuff, and would thrive with a real offense behind him.
I’m trying to figure out why Paul Maholm isn’t on this list. In 84 fewer starts, he’s got 2 more WAR than Marquis, he’s been pitching very well so far this year (already 1.2 WAR earned), he’s only 29 (actually, 28 for 3 more weeks), he’s got a below-market salary for this year and a team option for ’12 that’s, at worst, market value (probably a bit better). He doesn’t eat quite as many innings as Marquis, but he’s thrown 586 over the past 3 years, and he hasn’t missed a start since 2007.
You’d also be hard pressed to prove that Guthrie’s significantly better than Maholm, but at least he’s got the AL East pedigree plus a solid 600 IP over the last 3 seasons.
Brett Myers?
please get rid of the projected WAR, it makes the blog look unintelligent
You’d better do what the Babe says
Hey Gehrig, grab a mitt and catch me!
Peavy’s injury today puts a bit of a different spin on EJax, he’s no longer quite as expendable.
Jake’s injury has zero impact on what they should/will do with EJax – they weren’t contending with Peavy, they’re sure not contending without him. I would say if anything it makes him *more* expendable, since he’s gone after this year anyway may as well try to get something in return.
Solid analysis by D-Cam, as usual.
Gotta wonder, though, about “The Reds might not seem like they’re in need of a starter, but could cash in some of their excess talent in order to try and upgrade the front of their rotation.”
I would submit that the Reds—playing .500 ball in a take-able division, already 5+ games out, and with a modest payroll, and with 3/5 of their rotation sporting ERA’s in the 5’s or 6’s, and with the most overtaxed bullpen in the majors—are not only in NEED of a BIG rotation upgrade, but well-positioned to pursue one.
The farm system is strong, and A. Chapman (like Joba a few years back) remains one of the most overvalued commodities in the sport, due to that Autobahn velocity.
Get a starter, Reds!
hey, hey, hey! Don’t forget Paul Maholm! I’ve waited years until he’s trade bait! NOW IS THE TIME! GOOD BYE SUCKBAG PAUL MAHOLM!!!
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