Two weeks ago, it was reported that the Marlins were planning to move on without Juan Oviedo (the closer formerly known as Leo Nunez). Last night, they followed through on that plan by agreeing in principle to a three-year deal (with an option for a fourth year) with free-agent reliever Heath Bell, using him to replace Oviedo, who they mean to non-tender.

Bell’s 2011 season has been the subject of much scrutiny. On the one hand, Bell is the only pitcher in baseball to save 40 or more games in each of the past three seasons. On the other hand, Bell’s K/9 dropped precipitously last season. His walk rate dropped in accordance, but it didn’t drop down to a career-low level or anything — he had better control in the first four years of his career.

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The Phillies made the first major splash of the offseason by signing Jonathan Papelbon to a borderline absurd four-year, $50 million contract. The market was clearly flush with closers, or relievers capable of closing, and the Phillies paid a max type of contract for a 65-inning pitcher. Financial wiggle room was a concern before the move and the opportunity costs both realized and hypothetical — bidding farewell to homegrown talent Ryan Madson and perhaps prohibiting themselves from making more important moves elsewhere, respectively — suggested it was a poor move.

However, even without the Phillies context, signing any closer for that much money, over that many guaranteed years, is foolish. Relief pitchers are statistically fickle and don’t really offer a decreased level of injury risk. Over such a small sample of innings, it’s easy to temporarily mask true talent levels, especially when considering the general difficulty in evaluating relievers. By signing Papelbon to such a large deal that early in the offseason, the Phillies explicitly acknowledged their view that he was, by far, the best available option, and one worth spending big bucks on.

In this particular offseason, with so many viable closing options available, nobody is worth spending much money on since the differences between the closers are mostly nominal. The fact that so few closers were signed early in the offseason — besides Papelbon, both Joe Nathan and Jonathan Broxton signed lower-risk deals — indicates that teams are growing wary of doling out big bucks to pitchers occupying an overstated role. In the context of the current offseason, many teams are waiting to sign a closer, allowing the market to settle in order to ink one to a team-friendly deal.

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The Marlins and Padres managed to sneak in a little one-for-one trade just before the Thanksgiving holiday, with catcher John Baker heading to San Diego in exchange for left-handed pitcher Wade LeBlanc.

As you know, the Padres were simply horrendous on offense in 2011. Among the 30 clubs, they ranked 29th in AVG (.237), 28th in OBP (.305), 29th in SLG (.349), 30th in ISO (.112), 29th in wOBA (.292), 26th in wRC+ (89), and 25th in batting runs (-58.2). On the bright side, they did lead all teams with 170 stolen bases (79.4% success rate), so that helped a little. Long story short, one player isn’t going to save this offense, but adding Baker is a step in the right direction.

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To everyone’s surprise, the newly christened Miami Marlins have been one of the hottest teams on the free agent market so far. They’re interested in nearly every high profile free agent, and it seems likely that they’ll increase their payroll significantly this offseason and bring in at least one big name. Recent rumors have suggested that they aren’t actually considered likely suitors for Albert Pujols, and they may not have offered Jose Reyes $90 million…but still, they are going to land someone this offseason. After this start to the offseason, they need to or else risk their fanbase turning fickle on them again.

When evaluating new acquisitions, one of the most important — yet often overlooked — parts of projecting performance is park effects. Every ballpark plays slightly differently, and players can see big changes in their year-to-year performance based on where they play their home games. Is a player spending half his games in hitter friendly Arlington, or are they in the pitchers haven of PETCO Park? To the vast majority of you out there, this is old news.

But here’s where things get interesting: the Marlins are opening their new stadium next season, and we have no idea how it will perform. It could be a pitcher’s park, could be a hitter’s park — who knows? This added uncertainty makes evaluating their (potential) free agent acquisitions even more difficult. Why bother paying large money for a right-handed slugger if your stadium suppresses right-handed power considerably? It’s tough to tailor your team to your park if you don’t know how your park will perform.

Even if we don’t know exactly how the Marlins’ new stadium will perform, though, we can make some educated guesses. To the Bat Cave!

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In thinking of the likely landing spots for Jose Reyes, few, if any, would have guessed the Florida… er, Miami Marlins. But with multiple reports speculating on such a possibility, it’s worth taking a look at how exactly Reyes would fit in with the Fish.

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The Florida Marlins have never been known for having deep pockets. The team never enters an offseason eyeing the top free agents in the class. The Marlins combine talented homegrown prospects with cheap stopgap solutions and, in most cases, deal their players away before they get very expensive.

This has been their modus operandi for years, which makes it all the more interesting that the team entered the 2011 offseason targeting Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle, three of the top free agents available.

Signing all three might seem like a long shot, but the Marlins are in an interesting position with a new stadium, new uniforms and a different team name. The Miami Marlins are looking for a clean slate in 2012, and making an offseason splash is certainly a means to accomplishing that goal.

But can they really sign all three of these players? Will they sign any of them?

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On Tuesday, we took a quick look at the competitive balance in the MLB, and I made the claim that baseball may have more parity than most leagues, but it also has want of greater balance. During the course of the piece, I made this statement:

The NFL has decided it wants payroll to have essentially no impact on winning, so teams basically trot out the same amount of money every Sunday and hope their money was better-spent. Is that what the MLB wants?

Aft’wards, Paul Swydan pointed out to me that indeed NFL salaries are not flat. Despite their hard cap, their hefty revenue sharing, and their tight spandex pants, the NFL still exhibits nearly a $77M gap between the biggest and lowest payroll — impressive, but still nothing compared to the MLB:

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What’s gotten into the Marlins? First, a new name. Next, a new ballpark and uniforms. Now, the desire to spend money on free-agents. For the first time since their inception, it appears the Marlins are willing to spend money to win. This strategy is a stark departure from their “trade anyone who is due for a raise” approach throughout their history. While that approach has worked out for the Marlins in the past — they did win two World Series — it’s definitely interesting to hear them being linked to every free-agent on the market.

Since the free-agency period began, the Marlins have already met with Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes. Over the past couple days; they’ve been linked to Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Yoenis Cespedes and Carlos Zambrano. The Marlins obviously cannot sign all of those players, but it’s fun to finally see them involved in free-agency. If the Marlins are finally going to open up the checkbook, which free-agents should be the priority?
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The Florida Marlins don’t officially get a new name and logo until this Friday, but they are already working overtime on creating a new identity for their franchise. Over the past few weeks, there has been so much excitement swirling around the Marlins: new stadium, new uniforms, new identity, new payroll, new optimism. They are looking like a team reborn. So long with those small market days; the Marlins have been talking like they’re ready to jump to mid-market status, maintaining a payroll around the $80-100 million level.

So when I first heard this morning’s rumor that the Marlins are preparing to offer Jose Reyes a three-year deal, I had to chuckle to myself. There’s the small market Marlins we know and love (/not really). They can talk the talk all they want, but if they’re not going to make serious offers to any of the players they are “interested” in, little has changed in the end. They can create a short-term stir, but words will only take them so far without corresponding actions.

After the giggles went away, though, I began to have a new-found appreciation for the Marlins. This deal isn’t stupid, nor is it likely to be ignored by Reyes. In fact, a three-year deal may be perfect for him.

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Yesterday afternoon, Jayson Stark considered the question, “Is the MLB’s competitive balance a joke?” His answer was a rather blunt no:

MLB’s competitive balance is NOT a joke.

It beats the NFL.

It beats the league formerly known as the NBA.

And … I can prove it.

Stark’s method of proving it — plucking facts from the recent playoff series and comparing them generally to the NFL and other major leagues — was less than rigorous. In general, I agreed with his assertion: Parity in the MLB exists naturally far more than any other sports league.

HOWEVER, if my foot has less gangrene than your foot, does that mean I don’t need a doctor? No. I probably still need a doctor, and I probably need to stop playing barefoot tag on Rusty Nails Pier.

Relative success does not necessitate absolute success. And frankly, I feel the “parity” in the MLB indeed has a gangrene of sorts, a disease that is causing only specific segments of the league to rot while the rest hum along uncaring.

Of course, it is one thing to suspect something and demand more research, but it is another to pull the sabermetrician stocking over your head and answer that suspicion with a Falcon Punch of data.

Let’s do just that.
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