As of this writing  — and the way news is breaking right now, this could be outdated in anywhere from twelve hours to twelve seconds — the market for C.J. Wilson still stands at two teams: the Angels and Marlins. The common assumption was that the Marlins would pull out of the Wilson sweepstakes after landing Mark Buehrle last this afternoon, but at the moment, they have left their six-year offer on the table. Considering that the Marlins were willing to commit $220 million to Albert Pujols, it appears that a mere $58 million deal is not going to prevent them from jumping back in on another big-name free agent — especially when the trade market for starting pitchers is so steep.

With Buehrle off the market,it begins to get a bit easier to make some estimates on how much C.J. Wilson will get paid. The FanGraphs crowd-sourcing project had originally pegged Wilson as signing a 5 year, $15.5 million/year contract, but the Marlins have thrown a wrench in everything by giving Buehrle a contract with an AAV of $14.5 million. Since Buehrle was considered the second best pitcher on the market behind Wilson, it follows that Wilson should get a considerable amount more than that and will likely surpass his FanGraphs estimates. Then again, it seems unlikely that he approaches Roy Halladay’s deal from last offseason ($20m AAV) or surpass Jered Weaver’s current deal ($17m AAV).

Here’s where things get interesting to me: if the Marlins sign Wilson as well as Buehrle, they’ll then have two left-handed starters locked up through their age 36 season. If we assume that Wilson gets paid around $17 million/year (and we know Buehrle will receive $14.5m/year), which deal looks the best?

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First it was Heath Bell, at $27 million. Then it was Jose Reyes, at $111 million. Jeffrey Loria’s team isn’t done spending. Wednesday, the newly-branded Miami Marlins pulled the trigger on a third big-name free agent signing, reeling in Mark Buehrle from the White Sox on a four-year, $58 million contract.

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The Albert Pujols-Miami Marlins contract negotiations are heating up, and at this point it seems more than a possibility that El Hombre could be among the first to don a uniform with Miami across the chest in 2012. Pujols alone does not a winning team make — he cannot turn a team of replacement level scrubs into a 90-win squad. Still, his exceptional talent could give the Marlins a quick path to the playoffs, even relative to the other stars the Marlins have been eyeing this winter.

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Over six seasons with the (now) Miami Marlins, Hanley Ramirez proved to be a mediocre defensive shortstop. If history is any guide, he will likely be a worse defender at third base.

With the Marlins signing Jose Reyes to a six-year contract worth $106 million, Ramirez will no longer be the Marlins shortstop. Every indication is that he will be moved to third base, although Ramirez is expressing his extreme displeasure with the move.

Reyes is by far the better defender at short. In more than 8,800 innings at short, Reyes has a cumulative UZR/150 of 2.1, with 8 Defensive Runs Saved. Ramirez, by contrast, has logged more than 7,150 innings at short, amassing a cumulative UZR/150 of -9.1, with -49 Defensive Runs Saved.

Reyes is six months older than Ramirez — Reyes turned 28 in June and Ramirez will turn 28 at the end of this month. But Reyes has maintained more of a shortstop’s physique. He’s 6-1/200 pounds. Ramirez is 6-3/229 pounds.

For these reasons, playing Reyes at short makes the most sense for the Marlins. The question is what kind of defense they’ll get out of Ramirez at third.

If history is any guide, Ramirez will be an even weaker defender at third than he was at short.

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The Marlins made the first big move of the winter meetings Sunday night, agreeing to sign Jose Reyes to a six-year contract worth $106 million. It’s obviously the largest contract in franchise history, more than doubling the four-year, $52 million pact signed by Carlos Delgado prior to the 2005 season. It’s also the second largest contract ever given to a free agent shortstop, and the fourth largest ever given to a shortstop overall.

Reyes joined some exclusive company with his contract, becoming just the fourth shortstop to secure a nine-figure contract. Two of the other three guys are first ballot Hall of Famers, and the third is one of the five best players in the world. The Marlins are hoping Reyes will live up to those standards during the next six years, as well as spark interest in Miami’s Latin American community. Here is a breakdown of how four of baseball’s wealthiest shortstops performed during the life of their contract…

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When the Miami Marlins signed Heath Bell to a three year, $27 million contract Thursday night, the reaction on Twitter was…well, do I even need to tell you? It’s like clockwork; some team signs Proven Closer X to an expensive contract, and the sabermetric Twitterverse nigh explodes with negativity and snark. All this has happened before. All this will happen again.*

While the standard critique of this signing rings true — Why bother paying a premium for closers? Especially when relievers are so fungible and unpredictable?  — there was a side argument that especially piqued my curiosity. The Marlins are now committing $9 million per year into one reliever, but wouldn’t they have been better served trying to sign young slugger Mike Stanton to an extension? They could have use the money that went into signing Bell and locked Stanton up for a considerable amount of time instead. Considering Stanton is one of the best and most exciting young players in baseball, that’s an attractive option.

So I’m curious. Does the Heath Bell contract preclude the Marlins from locking up Stanton? If the Marlins were to engage Stanton in discussions about a long-term contract, what would the deal look like? Let’s find out.

*Kudos to all you fellow nerds that got that reference. I’m currently five episodes away from completing Season 4 of Battlestar Galactica. Frak, I don’t want it to finish.

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Two weeks ago, it was reported that the Marlins were planning to move on without Juan Oviedo (the closer formerly known as Leo Nunez). Last night, they followed through on that plan by agreeing in principle to a three-year deal (with an option for a fourth year) with free-agent reliever Heath Bell, using him to replace Oviedo, who they mean to non-tender.

Bell’s 2011 season has been the subject of much scrutiny. On the one hand, Bell is the only pitcher in baseball to save 40 or more games in each of the past three seasons. On the other hand, Bell’s K/9 dropped precipitously last season. His walk rate dropped in accordance, but it didn’t drop down to a career-low level or anything — he had better control in the first four years of his career.

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The Phillies made the first major splash of the offseason by signing Jonathan Papelbon to a borderline absurd four-year, $50 million contract. The market was clearly flush with closers, or relievers capable of closing, and the Phillies paid a max type of contract for a 65-inning pitcher. Financial wiggle room was a concern before the move and the opportunity costs both realized and hypothetical — bidding farewell to homegrown talent Ryan Madson and perhaps prohibiting themselves from making more important moves elsewhere, respectively — suggested it was a poor move.

However, even without the Phillies context, signing any closer for that much money, over that many guaranteed years, is foolish. Relief pitchers are statistically fickle and don’t really offer a decreased level of injury risk. Over such a small sample of innings, it’s easy to temporarily mask true talent levels, especially when considering the general difficulty in evaluating relievers. By signing Papelbon to such a large deal that early in the offseason, the Phillies explicitly acknowledged their view that he was, by far, the best available option, and one worth spending big bucks on.

In this particular offseason, with so many viable closing options available, nobody is worth spending much money on since the differences between the closers are mostly nominal. The fact that so few closers were signed early in the offseason — besides Papelbon, both Joe Nathan and Jonathan Broxton signed lower-risk deals — indicates that teams are growing wary of doling out big bucks to pitchers occupying an overstated role. In the context of the current offseason, many teams are waiting to sign a closer, allowing the market to settle in order to ink one to a team-friendly deal.

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The Marlins and Padres managed to sneak in a little one-for-one trade just before the Thanksgiving holiday, with catcher John Baker heading to San Diego in exchange for left-handed pitcher Wade LeBlanc.

As you know, the Padres were simply horrendous on offense in 2011. Among the 30 clubs, they ranked 29th in AVG (.237), 28th in OBP (.305), 29th in SLG (.349), 30th in ISO (.112), 29th in wOBA (.292), 26th in wRC+ (89), and 25th in batting runs (-58.2). On the bright side, they did lead all teams with 170 stolen bases (79.4% success rate), so that helped a little. Long story short, one player isn’t going to save this offense, but adding Baker is a step in the right direction.

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To everyone’s surprise, the newly christened Miami Marlins have been one of the hottest teams on the free agent market so far. They’re interested in nearly every high profile free agent, and it seems likely that they’ll increase their payroll significantly this offseason and bring in at least one big name. Recent rumors have suggested that they aren’t actually considered likely suitors for Albert Pujols, and they may not have offered Jose Reyes $90 million…but still, they are going to land someone this offseason. After this start to the offseason, they need to or else risk their fanbase turning fickle on them again.

When evaluating new acquisitions, one of the most important — yet often overlooked — parts of projecting performance is park effects. Every ballpark plays slightly differently, and players can see big changes in their year-to-year performance based on where they play their home games. Is a player spending half his games in hitter friendly Arlington, or are they in the pitchers haven of PETCO Park? To the vast majority of you out there, this is old news.

But here’s where things get interesting: the Marlins are opening their new stadium next season, and we have no idea how it will perform. It could be a pitcher’s park, could be a hitter’s park — who knows? This added uncertainty makes evaluating their (potential) free agent acquisitions even more difficult. Why bother paying large money for a right-handed slugger if your stadium suppresses right-handed power considerably? It’s tough to tailor your team to your park if you don’t know how your park will perform.

Even if we don’t know exactly how the Marlins’ new stadium will perform, though, we can make some educated guesses. To the Bat Cave!

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