Other Prince Fielders Have Left Before
It seems to be a foregone conclusion in Milwaukee that Prince Fielder is a goner. A rough estimate of the Brewers’ payroll might have them about $10 million short of 2011’s outlay once arbitration numbers are final, and $10 million a year is not enough to sign Prince Fielder. But baseball benefits from a long, well-recorded history. What can we learn from the other Prince Fielders that have left before?
First, we should probably define a Prince Fielder. He’s averaged more than four wins per season for the last five seasons, so that gives us a good place to start. And the 27-year-old Prince Fielder is leaving in Free Agency, which began in 1976. That gives us our time frame, and reminds us that age is part of this as well.
Here are some similar situations from the past thirty-plus years:
Adrian Gonzalez
The Padres traded their jewel a year before he hit free agency, but otherwise the parallels are strong. In an average offensive year for the Padres, Gonzalez hit 35% better than league average (Fielder 37%). In 2011, the tandem of Jesus Guzman, Kyle Blanks, Brad Hawpe, Anthony Rizzo and Jorge Cantu managed a wRC+ of 94. Which sounds okay until you compare it to other teams and realize they were third-worst in the National League at that position. The Padres? They went from scoring 665 runs in 2010 (with a 93 wRC+) to scoring 593 runs (89 wRC+) in 2011. They felt it.
Miguel Cabrera
Miguel Cabrera managed to make the four WAR / five year cut off despite one of his years being his half-season debut, that’s how good Miguel Cabrera is. He also put up offensive numbers that were 35% better than the league average, and his team also elected to replace him from the inside. The production drop from Cabrera to Mike Jacobs, who was worse than replacement in over 500 PAs the next year, somehow didn’t manage to hurt the Marlins as much as it did the Padres. In 2008, the Marlins were 2% worse than league average without Cabrera in the lineup. In 2009, they were 4% worse. Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu and Cody Ross had their best years (and from Dan Uggla his second-best) without Cabrera, so that’s how they did that.
Mark Teixeira
Teixeira actually misses our WAR/year cutoff by a smidgen, and his inclusion on this list was also complicated by a mid-season trade. It’s hard to pinpoint the Rangers with and without him because of it, but he seems to make sense on this list. The 2006 Rangers were 3% below average offensively, the 2007 Rangers, which featured him for half of the year, were 5% below average, and the 2008 Rangers, which had Chris Davis and Hank Blalock at first base, were 12% above average. Milton Bradley coming in and giving them a 158 wRC+ on a cheap contract was maybe a big reason for that last jump
Jason Giambi
Giambi only needed the three years previous to his 2001 departure from the Athletics in order to rack up more than 20 WAR. So, yeah, he was good. Those 2001 A’s enjoyed his 38 home runs and 193 wRC+ to an offensive year that was 8% better than league average. The 2002 version got a 114 wRC+ from the position and the team rocked right along to a year that was 6% better than average at the dish. Young Eric Chavez and young Miguel Tejada made it work without their slugger, and the team found some guy named Scott Hatteberg to put up a 120 wRC+ at first. Maybe you’ve heard this story.
Mo Vaughn
In 1999, a large (and largely loved) first baseman ended a string of offensive seasons in which he did no worse than 33% better than league average for the Red Sox. And yet his final year with the team was filled with fear and loathing, and the team seemed happy to let the big man leave. The offense took a hit — the team fell from 7% better than the league to only 1% better — but it wasn’t all from lacking offense at Vaughn’s position. Mike Stanley and Brian Daubach split the position (along with DH), and both managed to put up more than two WAR and offense that was 20% better than the league. Oh and the 1999 Red Sox won two more games than the 1998 version and ended up in the post-season again.
Rafael Palmeiro
Palmeiro was 29 when he left the Rangers in 1993, but that seemed like late blooming at the time. The team dropped from 2% better than the average offense in 1993 to 1% worse in 1994, but they also got three WAR from (and a 136 wRC+) from Will Clark, so it doesn’t really seem like first base was to blame. Instead, maybe it was the 463 plate appearances with a 94 wRC+ from Juan Gonzalez that failed to give the team the boost they needed. The team went from ten games over five hundred to ten under, but again: don’t blame Will the Thrill.
Fred McGriff
Do you remember how good McGriff was, right off the bat? From his second season in 1988 to his departure in 1990, the crime dog managed just under 20 WAR and a 157 wRC+. In 1989, he walked 17.4% of the time. The Blue Jays felt his loss. Their offense had a .155 ISO and 108 wRC+ in 1990, and those numbers fell to .134 and 99 respectively. But some dude named John Olerud came in and gave them above-average work at the position (2.9 WAR and 114 wRC+). Oh and the team went from second place in 1990 to first place in 1991. So maybe it wasn’t so bad.
John Olerud
Speaking of John Olerud, his monster 1993 (8.4 WAR) snuck him on to this list as well. So the Blue Jays are used to losing their first basemen and moving on. Cause Carlos Delgado took those reigns in 1997 and had a 121 wRC+ and 1.9 WAR in his first season as a starter and never looked back. Sure, in the short run the team went from an offense that was 9% worse than average to one that was 19% worse, but again it doesn’t seem like first base was the problem. And the team was about the same – 14 games below even in 1996, 10 games in 1997.
Perhaps there’s no easy narrative to force these instances into, and focusing on a team’s record with and without a player ignores too many other changing variables. But it also doesn’t look like a Prince Fielder departure would be a nail in the Brewer’s coffin. Most of these teams on this list that were competitive with their slugger were competitive without their slugger as well.
After all, most slugging first basemen have already ridden arbitration awards to high salaries by the time they leave their original team. The Brewers had $16 million budgeted towards first base in 2011, and if they use that money shrewdly, they might just be able to play some more October baseball again next year.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Am I the only one who thinks Fielder’s new deal could turn him into the next Ryan Howard contract wise? I just can’t see him being worth over 20 mill, if even that.
Maybe, but Fielder is just a more advanced overall hitter.
and Howard is half a decade older than Prince.
And there’s no hint of a decline yet. Best RC+ of his career. And he had more walks than strikeouts (first time of his career).
He’s averaged 5.10 WAR over the past 3 seasons; 4.42 WAR over the past 5 seasons. The problem isn’t the $20M AAV, it’s the number of years. That’d be fine for 5 or 6 years, but not for 7 or 8.
What about 25 mill per? To me that’s a problem
Overvalued, yes. But a better overall hitter than Howard and much younger, so I can;t see the contract ending up worse.
unless Prince gets like 8/200, and then completely lets himself go and balloons to like 350 lbs (or what New Yorkers call 1/2 of a Mo Vaughn).
I just don’t understand where all that comes from. People compare Prince to Mo Vaughn, but Prince walks wayy more, strikes out way less. In addition Vaughn was 32 when he signed his deal with Anaheim, Prince will be 27.
I think the only comparison you can make between Howard and Prince is that they’re black, hit homers, and play first base. Howard has a terrible batting average, strikes out far more than Prince, and weighs much less. Howard is also 31.
I think you’re not the only one that makes that comparison, but I just don’t see how the comparison fits.
He/she seems to have been comparing them contract-wise. If Fielder’s contract ended poorly, it would likely be for different reasons than Howard’s (aged poorly/got out of shape vs. was overvalued by old metrics). But, they could both likely end up in real bad contracts. That was the comparison, I thought.
What Jake said. Fielder’s a better player than Howard was, and Fielder projects to be allot better than Howard has been going forward, yet I still feel that he might not be worth 25 mill per for 6-7 years. If his offense degrades at all, along with terrible defense, he could produce seasons closer in production to his 2008/2010, in which case he would be massively over payed. I’m a Dodger fan and mentally I’ve been getting on and off the sign Prince Fielder wagon rather constantly. It’s definitely a huge risk/reward situation.
Fielder and Howard are also lefthanded hitters.
This is not a comparison of their present forms, obviously Howard is much older, the question is might Fielder be a similar player at Howard’s age?
Overall for their careers, they have been quite similar.
Howard 12.2 BB% 27.4 K% .285 ISO .324 BABIP .275 .368 .560
Fielder 13.4 BB% 18.5 K% .257 ISO .300 BABIP .282 .390 .540
So yes, Howard stikes out way more, but he has somewhat made up for that by hitting for more power and with a higher BABIP. Howard’s average has not been “terrible” as you say, it’s only beem 7 points lower than Fielder’s.
Overall they have had very close wOBA, .385 for Howard, .391 for Fielder.
They both rate very poorly on defense and the basepaths, however on defense Fielder has been worse, and as he ages can we not expect him to decline further?
All it has taken for Howard to go from a 4 WAR player to a 1.5 WAR player was a drop in wOBA from .390 to .360 and declining defense/baserunning. Something similar could happen to Fielder turning him from a 5-6 WAR player to a 3 WAR player, which along with a 25 mill salary would make his contract a very bad one. It might not happen until 3-4 years into the deal so that’s the saving grace. Still, Those last 3 years would be 75 mill for 9 WAR….
Wonderful explanation Chair. As far as chairs go, you gotta be among the brightest.
Agreed with everything you say here. And that;s not even factoring in Prince potentially letting himself go a little once he gets a crapload of money, something that we’ve seen many players do before.
Howard is a better defensive player. Doesn’t matter as much at 1B, but worth mentioning.
According to cots, Prince has already made ~38M over his career, including a 2.4M signing bonus.
Exactly how much more does he need to make to reach the “let yourself go” level?
What are the names of some 27yo superstars that have signed a major contract and then just let themselves go to waste, or waist as the case may be?
If Prince Fielder balloons up it’ll be due to a childhood of poor eating habits (SI reported he’d eat an 8-pack of raw hot dogs as a toddler), or genetics, or gaining the weight the way many of us err, I mean you have done after you turn 30.
CC Sabathia is another big guy that has gained weight after signing a mega deal.
This sounds like the scouts that say you can’t pay Latin prospects a lot of money because then they’ll lose their passion for the game and stop working hard at it.
I’ve always liked Fielder’s stroke better than Howard’s. Plus he’s way younger. In 5 years, I predict Fielder will still be hitting while Howard will be wiffing (if he’s still in good enough health to start).
That is totally irrelevant. This was never a comparison of Howard/Fielder to see whom was the better player. Any non idiot knows that Fielder is better. Youth also has NOTHING to do with it. The original comment wonder if Fielder signs a big contract similar to the one Howard signed, by the time he was Howard’s current age, would he be similarly in decline and overpayed?
It will be interesting to see what the Brewers do in the offseason. I don’t have a whole lot of faith in Doug Melvin but he made some good moves last offseason and hopefully will continue to do so.
It will be very interesting! Brewers went all in this year. I greatly admired their bravado in getting setup for making a run this year… and not worrying about next year (apparently).
Now… not a lot of money to spend on free agents (I guess whatever they save on Prince)… and no big time MLB ready prospects to play or trade.
Payback time.
you know what they say about payback.
I can’t wait to see what they do this year!
Anyone else think Washington will end up with him?
Yeah. For 6 year, $144 million or so.
I would if they didn’t already have two first basemen.
Does anyone else always get the feeling that Prince Fielder is way older than he actually is? Not that he lies about his age, but that it just always surprises me when people point out how young he is.
He’s just got a lot of baseball under his belt for a 27 year old. He’s been a full-timer since he was 21, was productive right out of the gate, and has never missed any time with injury. Leads baseball in games played over the last 6 years.
Also: these days, with the popularity of extensions and service time manipulation, it’s not often that a young star reaches free agency after just 6 years.
Agreed. The diminished FA classes of the present and future should equate to more money for primo FA’s, and justifiably so.
“He’s [Fielder] just got a lot of baseball under his belt for a 27 year old.”
That’s not so surprising, given the size of Fielder’s belt :shrug:
Because he’s been eating triple cheeseburgers since he was 8: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcvaYgWc9eY
He’s actually a vegetarian now. No joke.
That vegetarian thing didn’t even last for the full season.
He’s got that Greg Oden type beard going though
I wouldn’t be concerned if I were the Brewers. Cards are ancient, Reds don’t have consistent pitching, Pirates are mediocre, and both the Cubs and Stros are a few years away from competing. Basically if the Cards age like they should and TLR doesn’t make another deal with the devil that makes Berkman produce again, the Central is very winnable.
Cardinals are ancient? You should check out the average age during the NLCS – hint: Brewers have more to worry about moving forward
Berkman and Carp are ancient and might start breaking down…..but who else on their roster is old?
And you might want to be concerned…..since MIL needs to fill holes at center field, third base, first base, shortstop and fix marcum this offseason.
I just looked……Furcal is another one who is old and might be broken next year. Touche….
Furcal isn’t THAT old, but he is incredibly injury prone. Also a FA
Agreed on 3b/ss/1b but I think they will be alright at CF at least next year. Morgan and Gomez combined for a 6war in CF this yr which was 6th in MLB. Even with regression they should be an average to above avg CF platoon.
3B will be filled by Taylor Green and 1B by Mat Gamel. The Brewers just need a SS and a couple relievers.
Love this article, thanks!
Mil made a big mistake in trading Brett Laurie for S Marcum. They got fleeced. I wish Mariner’s could have traded one of their pitchers (not named Felix) for Laurie.
They did not have a single pitcher that would have fit the Brewer’s criteria. Felix was too expensive, Pineda and Fister were unproven, and the rest are not significant upgrades over what they had.
Miguel Cabrera might be the closest comp to Fielder given that the vast “bulk” of their value comes from the bat. Both have negative fielding and baserunning metrics.
Cabrera has been more consistent in his outstanding batting seasons, whereas Fielder alternates his great and good batting seasons (over the last 6 years).
Both are 27 and both came on the scene early (age 20 and 21) and have been key performers every since.
Both are not “little” guys, while obviously Cabrera is more “normal” for a 1B than Fielder. Fielder is a little bit like CC Sabathia in that his body type is so far from the norm that they may just need to be considered unique, and not compared to some other guys whose weight issues played big roles in their decreased performance.
Cabrera is the better overall hitter, but he’s also been one of the best in the AL (and ML) since his time in MLB. So if Fielder is “a little bit less than Cabrera”, well that puts him in good company.
We all understand that Fielder is going to be at his highest value over the first 3-4 years of the contract. We also know that you’re not going to get Fielder for just a 4 year contract. The contracts these players require are for 6-8 years because obviously they know they don’t have much leverage negotiating a 3-4 year contract at age 33. So, you’re going to have to be willing to pay for their age 33-37 seasons in order to get their age 28-32 seasons. This is where it becomes difficult because there haven’t been many players “like” Prince Fielder in terms of size and performance.
The BRewers seem to fit the profile of the teams that will find it difficult to replace Fielder than those that did fine without their big loss. They don’t have a good hitting 1B waiting in the wings, unless you feel gamel is that guy. They also don;t have a bunch of young guys that are getting ready to explode and shoulder the burden.
Of the teams that were able to find cheap replacements for their lost star, it doesn’t seem to be something that continued for much more than the following season. So, while they may be able to mostly make up Fielder’s contributions in 2012 with a replacement, doing it again in 2013 and beyond seems more difficult.
Some of these extreme talents are just hard to gauge. Eric Davis’s body type should have aged really well (ala Clemente), but haven’t. Griffey Junior had the prototype body, but did not age well.
Any team signing Fielder is not playing for success in 2016, but needs an impact bat to go with what they have for the 2012-2015 seasons. Even as a DH, such as Ortiz, Fielder likely has value in his later years, but probably not in the 20M/y range.
Cabrera isn’t a good comparable.
1) Cabrera is on another level as a hitter.
2) Cabrera was thought of as staying at 3B when he was traded/signed to the extension.
3) Cabrera’s extension covered 2 arb years.
4) Cabrera is only a year older than Fielder, and would have been a year younger as a FA.
Since Prince became a starter in 2006, he is 4th in batting runs behind Pujols, Cabrera and Holliday.
That’s the main reason I used Prince as a comparable, but also their similar age, similar age of entering MLB, same position, similar weaknesses (fielding and baserunning) and both are generally insulted because of their girth and defense.
As a funny aside I find it interesting and humorous that Matt Holliday is listed at 6’4 235 and Cabrera is listed at 6’4 240. Cabrera must have birdlike bones. Grin.
Fielder is also ahead of Adrian Gonzalez, and younger at the time of FA/extension. Perhaps AG is a decent comp because the diff in their WAR is basically “fielding”, and I don’t think teams were paying AG primarily because he was/is an above average fielder.
Adrian got 154/7 (22M/y) for his age 30-37 seasons. Prince will likely be paid for his age 28-35 seasons.
But the real issue is that we’re trying to figure out how Prince will age, and I’m not sure I have a comparable in mind for that.
Given where Fielder ended up signing this post became somehow really amusing.
Citing Al Leiter (if I recall correctly), “who could afford Prince? Some team with a short right field porch and enough money to spend”. Who could it be…? For the sake of brewers, hope they manage to keep him.
So, the real question is…
How do you think Mat Gamel will do next season?
If Prince ages like I did, his new team is in a whole heap of trouble.
Let’s not be hasty, Cecil. Your son, while fatter, is also a much better hitter than you were. Better BB%, K%, and ISO. He has more career WAR despite 1700 fewer PA, and you not being penalized by the new Baseruns metric (Bsr).
Prince will likely remain an elite hitter into his early 30s, and though the contract he signs may not be “worth it” to the team in the long run, he’s almost certainly going to be very productive for the next few years.
Whether he bails you out of your post-career gambling debts is another matter, however.
What no mention of comparing Prince to his dad? Genetics have to be a good indicator of how well a player ages, right?
If so, the picture doesn’t look pretty. Cecil had his best year when he was 26 and started a steady decline as he got older and his waistline expanded. Cecil was out of the league by his 34th birthday. This could be Prince’s last contract even if it’s only for six years.
What about Albert? This is going to turn into a war between Pujols and Prince. I dont even have to say who’s better (we all know) but its important to understand that neither of these guys are getting $300 mil or $30 mil a year. I think it will be interesting to see who signs first, I’m sure that Pujols wants to use Prince’s contract as a benchmark/starting point (as he should… even though signing someone even of Pujols caliber is risky for 8 age 30+ seasons). Conversely, i would bet that Scott boras will tell prince to sit back and relax, and wait for the cardinals to make their offer to pujols, and then start negotiating princes contract. These two guys are linked this off season, and comparing their talents (both great players, but pujols is in a class by himself) is somewhat irrelevant. It’s their situations that warrants comparison, and in this case pujols and prince will have a bigger impact on each others contracts than anyone else will.
*My prediction*
Pujols signs with Cardinals for 8 years/$210 million (only because they will win the world series and he will dominate, fueling this mega contract (!))
Prince signs with Cubs (!) for 7 years/$185 million (Epstein will want to make a big splash… very big)
or maybe thats completely ridiculous, im not sure yet
Nice work, but one minor quibble… at various points in the article, “last year” seems to refer to the 2011 regular season, in addition to 2010. Instead of writing “last year”, it might be better to explicitly state the year.
I changed all mentions of ‘last season’ to 2011. There weren’t any references to 2010 as last season, but you’re right about clarity.
Thanks!
Not sure you can analyze Adrian Gonzalez along with the others unless you include the value (if any) they got for trading him.* When Milwaukee loses Fielder, they’ll have nothing to show for it. [Okay, I think they get compensatory picks, but meh.]
(Btw, I’m a STL fan and I advocated trading Pujols last year.)
* Casey Kelly (P)
Anthony Rizzo (1B)
Reymond Fuentes (OF)
Eric Patterson (OF)
This article is entirely dependent on who the Brewers have in reserve. While there was certainly surprising number of teams mentioned that did have someone able to take up much of the slack, that in no way provides a basis for any specific case whatsoever, which is why I think the author’s overall premise is specious.
Not true imo. The Red Sox and Athletics had nothing on hand and found a way forward. Plus, my intent in the beginning was merely to describe the different situations that were similar to this one. Then I said you can’t say x + y = z here. Then I said there is at least some hope for the Brewers. Which I think flows mostly from the Red Sox and Athletics.
I agree with most of this article, however I think it massively overstates the loss of Adrian Gonzalez to the Padres and misses a number of key factors in their runs scored dropping. For example, they lost Torrealba (a .290 hitter) and replaced him with Rob Johnson (a barely .200 hitter). They also lost the David Ecksteins .267/.321/.326 line for Bartlett’s .245/.308/.310. Add in the loss of Miguel Tejada hitting an out of place .268/.317/.413, bringing in flops such as Brad Hawpe and Jorge Cantu and the fact they arguably faced a division with improved pitching in 2011 then it seems that to blame their decline on the Gonzalez trade is ignoring the bigger picture. Sure it didn’t help, but it wasn’t all down to his exit – collectively they worked together to bring about the decline…