Episode 124
Wendy Thurm, who’s written for FanGraphs since October, is different from most of the site’s writers in terms of the amount of X chromosomes she possesses. Her capacity for providing crack analysis to our electronic pages is very much the same, however.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 49 min. play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The Mets system is hurt by a lack of depth. It has some very nice arms in Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey and Jeurys Familia, but things begin to fall off quickly after that. The offensive prospects, in particular, come with a lot of question marks.

1. Zack Wheeler, RHP
BORN: May 30, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round (6th overall), Georgia HS (by San Francisco)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd (San Francisco)

SCOUTING REPORT: A half year of veteran outfielder Carlos Beltran cost the San Francisco Giants dearly when they shipped Wheeler to the east coast. The right-hander instantly became the organization’s No. 1 prospect, narrowly edging Matt Harvey for the distinction. Wheeler’s repertoire includes a 91-95 mph fastball that can touch the upper 90s, a potentially-plus curveball and two developing pitches: a changeup and a cutter.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Wheeler had little to no issues with high-A ball during his first true full season in the minors. He struggled a bit with his control while pitching in the Giants organization (4.81 BB/9 in 88 IP) but made some minor adjustments with the Mets and showed improvement, albeit in a small sample size (1.67 BB/9 in 27 IP). He has yet to see his strikeout rate dip below 10.00 K/9 in his career. After posting an outstanding ground-ball rate in ’10, Wheeler’s became more of a fly-ball pitcher in ’11; it would be nice to see him work the lower half of the strike zone more consistently.

YEAR AHEAD: Wheeler is ready for the challenge of double-A and he should spend the majority of the season at that level. The organization may be tempted to call on him if the starting rotation struggles but he could use another full season in the minors before facing big league hitters.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Beltran compiled 1.2 WAR in 44 games with the Giants before jumping ship for a lucrative two-year contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. Assuming he stays healthy, Wheeler will have no issues surpassing the value (possibly in his rookie season) that the Giants organization squeezed out of Beltran. Wheeler has a legitimate shot at becoming a No. 1 or 2 starter at the MLB level.

Read the rest of this entry »

Fernando Martinez’s time as a New York Met might be coming to an end. To make room for Ronny Cedeno and Scott Hairston on its 40-man roster, the Mets  placed Martinez on waivers. While it seems that Martinez has been around forever, the former top prospect is only 23 — which means he could be an intriguing option for some other team.

Read the rest of this entry »

Sometimes, we can just have a little fun with the numbers. And now that our Dark Overlord has been studiously typing away in that basement of his, we that play in the light can have a little more fun. Yes, he gave us Minor League leaderboards that have all sorts of delightful little snippets of knowledge — what they all mean in sum, who knows, but each is a nugget of beauty in baseball.

* Junior Lake was third-fastest player in all of the Minor Leagues by Bill James’ speed score. He even hit 17 out and showed a .175 ISO, so he’s got some tools. If only he could walk, limit the strikeouts or show some defense. The Cubs could move him to the outfield if he can’t handle the infield, but that only solves one of the problems. And let’s not forget this is the team that drafted Corey Patterson, so even center field won’t solve all of his woes.

Read the rest of this entry »

For more on the Venezuelan Winter League, check out Carson Cistulli’s final SCOUT leaderboards for said league.

With the MLB in the middle of its winter hiatus, we of the baseball-addicted must roll our listful eyes towards the winter leagues. One such league is the wildly popular Venezuelan Winter League. It is hard to say what exact level the Venezuelan league constitutes — but it certainly has a few veterans of both leagues, as well as a few MLB guys (though usually nobody who is already well established in the majors).

This year, Chicago Cubs fans have had the delight of being able to keep tabs on their… exciting… pitcher Carlos Zambrano. Big-Z — perhaps in an effort to ingratiate himself with the new Cubs regime, perhaps in a move to showcase his talents to the league — has now pitched five games for the Caribes de Anzoategui, but according to some recent rumors, Zambrano may be calling it a winter.

And maybe he should.
Read the rest of this entry »

In seeing Rhiner Cruz‘ name as the top pick in this year’s Rule 5 draft, my first thought was this would be the last time I ever spent a tangible amount of time prepping for it. In a moment of clarity, the Houston Astros helped me understand just how important the Rule 5 draft is NOT.

Even after reading Adam Foster’s piece breaking down Rule 5 draft picks between 2007-2010 which hammers home the fact players selected essentially have zero value on average, I was still hopeful for something…. anything worthy of excitement from a prospect perspective.

Read the rest of this entry »

The magic of the Winter Meetings continued late into the evening on Day Two, with the Mets and Giants agreeing to the first trade of the meetings. The two teams agreed on a swap of center fielders coming off a bad year, with Angel Pagan heading to San Francisco in exchange for Andres Torres as well as reliever Ramon Ramirez.

Read the rest of this entry »

In a pair of moves that is sure to inspire derision, the Mets signed former Blue Jays Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco to revamp the back end of their bullpen. While the pair made for an underwhelming duo in Toronto, there are a more than a few reasons to like these deals for the Mets.

Read the rest of this entry »

Maybe it wasn’t above-the-fold news, but Mets fans probably took notice: the San Diego Padres hired Omar Minaya last week. After interviewing with the Angels for the once-open general manager job, this might seem like a step back for Minaya. The fit might also seem strange, considering current Padres GM Josh Byrnes‘ pedigree in statistics-based analytics.

In the end, though, the move might be a great fit for Minaya. The hiring also represents a step forward for baseball.

Read the rest of this entry »

To everyone’s surprise, the newly christened Miami Marlins have been one of the hottest teams on the free agent market so far. They’re interested in nearly every high profile free agent, and it seems likely that they’ll increase their payroll significantly this offseason and bring in at least one big name. Recent rumors have suggested that they aren’t actually considered likely suitors for Albert Pujols, and they may not have offered Jose Reyes $90 million…but still, they are going to land someone this offseason. After this start to the offseason, they need to or else risk their fanbase turning fickle on them again.

When evaluating new acquisitions, one of the most important — yet often overlooked — parts of projecting performance is park effects. Every ballpark plays slightly differently, and players can see big changes in their year-to-year performance based on where they play their home games. Is a player spending half his games in hitter friendly Arlington, or are they in the pitchers haven of PETCO Park? To the vast majority of you out there, this is old news.

But here’s where things get interesting: the Marlins are opening their new stadium next season, and we have no idea how it will perform. It could be a pitcher’s park, could be a hitter’s park — who knows? This added uncertainty makes evaluating their (potential) free agent acquisitions even more difficult. Why bother paying large money for a right-handed slugger if your stadium suppresses right-handed power considerably? It’s tough to tailor your team to your park if you don’t know how your park will perform.

Even if we don’t know exactly how the Marlins’ new stadium will perform, though, we can make some educated guesses. To the Bat Cave!

Read the rest of this entry »