Yesterday, the great Brian Cartwright took a lingering glance at Yu Darvish and his Oliver projections in a cutely titled piece, Why Oliver ♥s Yu. 🙂

The projection — a 2.57 ERA and 185 innings pitched — certainly seems optimistic at first glance. The of-late struggling Daisuke Matsuzaka, bless his little heart, has forever impressed his own career into the expectations of NPB players on many baseball fans, new and old schools alike.

So Cartwright’s assumes his difficult task — as he must — with great precision. He is not content to just “blindly follow his off-the-wall forecast” as Tom Tango put it. Looking at each of the Japanese pitchers to skip the creek, Cartwright finds good reason to think — even with a dulled strikeout rate and a bumped walked rate — Darvish can still be a Top 15 pitcher in 2012.

And I think he is correct.
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Earlier this week, the Baltimore Orioles announced the signing of 17-year-old South Korean pitcher, Kim Seong-min, amidst little fanfare.

At least, little fanfare in the United States.

The Korean Baseball Organization, on the other hand, strongly rebuked the Orioles and Major League Baseball for “indiscriminately signing [Korean] players.” Kim was the nation’s top left-handed pitching prospect and was expected to join the KBO upon his completion of high school. Instead, he becomes just another face amongst the hundreds of young men from across the globe in Major League organizations who are all trying to realize a life-long dream of playing in the big leagues.

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Episode 132
The Detroit Tigers now have Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and Delmon Young, and yet still claim to lack a DH. In this episode of FanGraphs Audio, managing editor Dave Cameron explains how that’s possible. Also discussed: Roy Oswalt’s Final Destination, a pair of cheap pitchers, finding the next Michael Pineda.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 32 min. play time.)

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Here are five recent — and not entirely inconsequential — moves.

Baltimore Signs Taiwanese Left-Hander Chen
The Baltimore Orioles signed Taiwanese left-hander Wei-Yin Chen to a three-year, $11.3 million deal on Tuesday, reports a large portion of the internet. Our man David Goleblahblahblah, writing for RotoGraphs, looked at Chen in some depth yesterday. The salient details: Chen is 26 years old. His strikeout rates have plummeted over his four years in the NPB (8.4, 8.0, 7.3, 5.1 K/9). His walk rates have also declined (2.6, 2.2, 2.3, 1.7). All things being equal, more strikeouts with more walks — like, with the same strikeout-to-walk ratio — is better than fewer strikeouts and fewer walks (i.e. a pitcher with a 9.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 is more valuable than one with a 3.0 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9). His fastball velocity has declined about 1-2 mph over that time (per Patrick Newman’s NPB Tracker). He only needs to produce, like, 2.5 wins to earn his contract. He’ll probably have a better 2012 than Brian Matusz had a 2011.

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Recently I was reflecting on just how historically stacked third base seems to have been in the 1970s. Brooks Robinson and Ron Santo were nearing the end of their careers, but still had some good years left. George Brett and Mike Schmidt were famously taken back-to-back in the 1971 draft (that’s right, any team in baseball — including the Royals and Phillies, could have had them both) and while both initially struggled, well, do I even need to finish that thought? Graig Nettles, Darrell Evans, and Buddy Bell were all active and all have at least somewhat compelling Hall of Fame cases. And that is without getting into other third basemen who had excellent careers like Sal Bando and Ron Cey.

The position is not nearly as stacked these days, but there are obviously a number of excellent players, from the big guns in the New York and Boston to the young superstars in Tampa Bay and Washington to underrated guys in Cincinnati and Texas. But those sorts of players will probably get plenty of Fan Projections. Today, I want to take a look at less-scrutinized, but still interesting, third base situations that deserve your input — those of the Orioles, White Sox, and Angels.

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In the weekly Wednesday chat, one of the popular subjects was the Braves pursuit of Baltimore outfielder Adam Jones. According to reports, Atlanta has been trying to land Jones for the better part of a few months, using Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado as the bait, while the Orioles demand a lot more in return for their center fielder. A segment of Braves fans seem to be offended by the asking price for Jones, believing that the Orioles demands for a guy with a .319 OBP is unwarranted.

But, here’s the thing with trading for a guy like Adam Jones – you aren’t paying for what he has been, you’re paying for what he could be.

The 2008-2011 version of Adam Jones has been a slightly above average player, not the star he was projected to be as a prospect. As has been noted by Atlanta fans many times, his low on base percentage has held him back from being an offensive force, and he’s shown few signs of improving his plate discipline to date. Additionally, UZR hasn’t exactly loved his defense in center field, so he’s topped out at +2.9 WAR in his best season to date.

If that’s all Adam Jones was, then Braves fans would be right that Baltimore was asking too much for his final two years of team control. However, the Orioles see potential for significant improvement from their center fielder, and history backs up their point of view.

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Melvin Mora has reportedly announced his retirement. I will admit that I was a bit surprised to find out that Mora is going to turn 40 in February. I knew he was a “late bloomer,” but I had not processed just how late. Upon his retirement, it is worth reflecting Mora’s curious development as well as taking a look at one of his most exciting in-game moments.

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Tyler Greene is literally behind Rafael Furcal in St. Louis.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Projecting: ZiPS for St. Louis
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Detroit Television

Assorted Headlines
Baltimore Signs Outfielder Chavez
The Baltimore Orioles have signed outfielder Endy Chavez to a one-year, $1.5 million deal, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Chavez, who turns 34 in February, had a bounceback season in 2011, posting a 1.5 WAR in 274 plate appearances without the aid of a particularly inflated BABIP (.321) or UZR (2.1).

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According to Jon Paul Morosi, the Orioles have signed 30-year-old Japanese free agent Tsuyoshi Wada to a two-year, $8.15 million contract with an option for 2014. Though the left-handed Wada isn’t a well-known name or a young prospect, and he has flaws that may keep him from being a great starter in the American League, there are a few mitigating factors that make the deal interesting.

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According to Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, the Baltimore Orioles are discussing a trade with the Colorado Rockies that would net them closer Huston Street.

Baltimore featured the fourth-worst bullpen in all of baseball last season with a collective 4.31 FIP. It featured the headache that is Kevin Gregg as closer, as well as such stalwarts as Jeremy Accardo, Brad Bergesen, and Chris Jakubauskas. The only true bright spots were right-handers Jim Johnson, Pedro Strop, and Koji Uehara — and, even then, Uehara and his 2.56 FIP were traded to Texas prior to the deadline.

Obviously, the Orioles have a weakness in the bullpen. That’s not even up for discussion. But after going 69-93 last season and finishing 28 games behind the first-place Yankees, why the hell is Baltimore targeting a closer that will cost a significant amount in terms of prospects and only has one or two years (depending on the player option) remaining on the contract?

Huston Street is a good, but not elite, closer. He owns a career 3.09 FIP and was victimized last season by a career-high 14.5% HR/FB, which caused his overall earned run average to balloon to almost 4.00. Any potential suitor should be concerned that his velocity dropped 1.2 MPH in 2011 — which also happened in 2007, when Street spent time on the DL with elbow problems — but the talent is undeniably there.

The point, however, is not whether or not Huston Street is worth acquiring as a closer. It’s whether or not the Baltimore Orioles should move young talent to trade for a reliever with a maximum of two years remaining on his contract.

The answer is clearly negative.

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