Yu Darvish 2012 Projections: He Go’n Be Good
Yesterday, the great Brian Cartwright took a lingering glance at Yu Darvish and his Oliver projections in a cutely titled piece, Why Oliver ♥s Yu. 🙂
The projection — a 2.57 ERA and 185 innings pitched — certainly seems optimistic at first glance. The of-late struggling Daisuke Matsuzaka, bless his little heart, has forever impressed his own career into the expectations of NPB players on many baseball fans, new and old schools alike.
So Cartwright’s assumes his difficult task — as he must — with great precision. He is not content to just “blindly follow his off-the-wall forecast” as Tom Tango put it. Looking at each of the Japanese pitchers to skip the creek, Cartwright finds good reason to think — even with a dulled strikeout rate and a bumped walked rate — Darvish can still be a Top 15 pitcher in 2012.
And I think he is correct.
First of all, though it has been said and said and said again, Darvish is not Daisuke. Yes, both are Japanese pitchers coming over after enormous posting fees. Yes, both have been overworked by American standards. Yes, they were both elite in the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league.
Stop! Graphics time.
This is Yu Darvish in 2011:
A note of thanks to Patrick Newman for lateralling these stats to me in what is being called the greatest statistical flee-flicker of the young century.
That’s a FIP-minus of 47. Forty-f’ing-seven.
By comparison, Roy Halladay’s league leading 2.20 FIP in 2011 was a trifling 56 FIP-minus. The only one close to Darvish is Tanaka Masahiro (or Masahiro Tanaka, if’n you prefer given name, surname) with a Halladayesque 56, and then comes Tsuyoshi Wada (now a member of the Baltimore Orioles) with a 74 FIP-minus.
If we look at Daisuke’s 2006 season — his last season in Japan — we see he certainly was above the cut, but not Darvish good:
Great? Yes. Darvish? No. Wada? Almost, actually.
I kept the same y-axis scale in both graphics to help preserve the sense of proportion. Note how Darvish’s FIP-minus nearly touches the F3 button on your keyboard, while Daisuke’s 68 reaches like the toes of frightened 8-year-old hanging on to the monkey bars, trying to get down without dropping.
At the same time, we must admit that Daisuke has not been terrible at the MLB level. The 2011 season was heartbreaking for non-Rays fans (not such as myself), but overall he has 10.6 WAR in 5 seasons, with a career FIP-minus of 95.
Is he what the Red Sox paid for? HAHAHAHA! No. But he still may be an above-average pitcher — if he can get healthy again.
Ultimately, we must admit that the Oliver projections still seem optimistic for Darvish. Cartwright admits there seems to be a range, and the Oliver projections are landing on the bottom:
Examining several sets of comparable pitchers shows an expected ERA for Darvish anywhere from 2.78 to 3.40, which is from excellent down to merely very good, but no recent major league pitchers have the combination of Darvish’s expected home runs, walks and strikeouts. Looking at those comparables and Darvish’s pitch metrics give me a personal opinion: I would compare him to Felix Hernandez with more strikeouts or Ubaldo Jimenez with fewer walks.
Mike Axisa gathered a few projections himself, and indeed the Cairo sticks out:
| W | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver | n/a | 193 | 2.45 | 0.99 | 10.3 | 6.4 |
| ZiPS | 13 | 194 | 3.62 | n/a | 7.8 | 4.5 |
| CAIRO | 14 | 190 | 3.44 | 1.25 | 7.1 | n/a |
| RotoChamp | 15 | 200 | 3.33 | 1.17 | 8.1 | n/a |
But if we consider that Daisuke’s FIP-minus went up ~30 points in the majors, we can make a dirty, nasty calculation of our own, adding 30 points of FIP-minus to Darvish.
Here is the maffematics:
30 + 47 = 77
At a 77 FIP-minus, would have tied Doug Fister, Jake Peavy, and Matt Cain on the leaderboards. That’s still a sub-3.00 ERA. What about Felix Hernandez? He has an 82 FIP-minus on his career, or 35 points of FIP-minus higher. Ubaldo Jimenez? A career 80 FIP-minus, or 33 points higher.
So even if Darvish crumbles as far as Daisuke did and then some, he’d still be a Top 15 or Top 20 pitcher in the league.
And I think that pretty much makes me ♥ Yu too.
Me likee the recent projections for Yu(I mean him) and just hope he gets off to a good start which seems possible since he will have the element of suprise during his 1st 7-10 starts and while getting a jump he gets used to his setting here in the US and then pitches even better. My hopeful projections would be 16-7 3.09 ERA 192 IP 1.11 WHIP
The wild card with projecting Yu is maturity + big stage. I think there is a reason that there were few bidders for his services, and I think it has little to do with his pitching ability. There are reasons to think that he may not have the mental makeup of an MLB ace. At least not yet. Mentioning him in the same breath as Roy Halladay is just lunacy. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/far-yu-darvish-arrives-america-wearing-shirt-marijuana-022449449.html
If you think that story is a red flag, wait until you hear about Tim Lincecum.
Doing it is one thing. Wearing it on your chest when you get off the plane that brought you to the states?? Not saying he won’t be successful in MLB; just saying that his success will depend on much more than his Japan League pitching record. There’s a reason why MLB scouts submit “makeup” grades.
they submit “makeup” grades because the vast majority of scouts are terrible at their jobs and have to come up with crap like “makeup” in order to justify their existence.
Umm, how did David Wells score on “make up”? How did he pitch?
*Phew* Good thing I only murdered someone and didn’t wear a Metallica ‘Kill ’em All’ t-shirt.
You can’t be serious, can you? You know Darvish speaks through a translator, and said he just likes to wear t-shirts that have english writing on them. This is one of the biggest ‘much ado about nothing’ examples ever.
So you think Darvish will not have the “makeup of an MLB ace” because he wears a t-shirt that may depict a marijuana leaf? Are you T.J. Simers by any chance?
I think him wearing it when he was greeting cameras on his arrival to the US does not signal great maturity. I also don’t think it’s a photo opp that any MLB team owning him would be very pleased about. Again — you have to ask why pitching-hungry teams with big budgets passed on him. It wasn’t because of his ability. He could be an ace, but there are red flags that warn against assuming a 1.00 WHIP in his first season. Character issues aside that is an absurd projection in that ballpark.
How is marijuana viewed culturally in Japan? I know using it is frowned upon, but as a symbol, what’s the reaction?
Assuming that Yu has any idea how people would react to a marijuana leaf in the US is foolish. He’s entering an alien landscape that is vastly and weirdly different from anything he knows. You can’t expect him to fit in.
Honestly, just look at the clothes Ichiro wears when he shows up to spring training every year. It’s like Hello Kitty meets the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. That doesn’t tell us he’s a bad player; it tells us he’s Japanese.
Pitching hungry teams with big budgets may have passed on him because their scouts aren’t particularly enamored of him. There has been talk coming from MLB organizations that he’s more of a first division #2 starter. Maybe that puts him right on the outer edge of your top 20 pitcher lists, but if that’s the guy’s _upside_ then I can’t blame a team for not spending $111 million on him.
I think the “big stage” concerns with Japanese players are overstated. NPB is the largest and most popular baseball organization outside of North America. Baseball is actually king among team sports in Japan like it was until the last decade or two in the US. Their stadiums aren’t quite as big, but most can fit 25-30K people, if not more. Their fans are also a lot louder and more passionate too (I experienced this during the last WBC).
I think the differences between leagues and cultures will be a bit of a hurdle, but as far as playing big games in front of huge crowds goes, I think that’s something NPB players are already used to.
context man. Their fans were louder during the WBC because they care more about the WBC. We don’t take it seriously over here because we know they (american players) don’t try their hardest. I doubt there is a stadium in Japan where fans are at all like the ones in Wrigley, Busch, Fenway, or (until they get old and crumble), Citizen’s Bank. Just look at the attendance figures.
The correlation between maturity and ability is almost nil, in my most humble of opinions. For evidence, I submit: The entirety of the NFL, outside of Peyton Manning.
It’s more speculation than a firm opinion. I just find it really interesting that this elite of a talent garnered so little interest on the FA market. I mean this guy could’ve been a huge difference maker in any division.
So is your kid’s college fund bet with the London bookies on this projection. It’s an awful like hell in Arlington for 3 months. Awh, that won’t make any difference.
Maybe he just didn’t know, as it seemed during his press conference. Plus, google “Japanese maple leaf” and you will see that it’s quite similar to Tim Lincecum’s favorite plant. Cultural differences.
marijuana is bad for athletic performance. see: lincecum, tim; phelps, michael.
oh wait, it’s 2012. who cares if he likes marijuana. better that than an alcoholic like miguel cabrera.
Who in all fairness just had a 7 win season.
I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt in that it’s a Japanese maple leaf. Seriously. Non-story for me.
Hey kid, that was not a weed leaf on his shirt…
The marijuana leaf is all over t-shirts, backpacks, purses, etc. in Japan and almost no one knows what it is. It just looks cool, is associated with reggae music and other black culture, and so is a hip symbol. There are whole lines of children’s clothing with pot leaves on them. It doesn’t mean their parents are potheads.
Maybe before you leap to conclusions, you should read the entire article.
“According to Konnichiwhoa, reports out of Japan said the shirt depicts a Japanese maple leaf”
“In Japan, the marijuana leaf is a popular symbol without any real smoking context”
“Marijuana is highly illegal in Japan. It’s considered a hard drug”
Try adding something useful to the discussion instead of the illogical speculations.
It’s a leaf from the Japanese Maple tree. Try reading, it’s fundamental.
Dude you don’t know Yu Darvish (and not saying I do) but you can’t just judge a book by its cover. So what; he has a shirt you find “bad.” It doesn’t say anything about his mental makeup
Yeah, that was a maple leaf. Its a good luck thing in Japan and Korea. He wasn’t being brash. Lost in translation…
Who else looked at their F3 key and was like “Woah!”?
It was more ESC for me, but I did look and was impressed.
Ball deadened in japan in 2011
That’s why I used FIP-minus.
Have any studies been done comparing pitch movement of the Japanese baseball vs the slightly larger MLB ball? It might be advantageous to know how much – if any – movement a Japanese pitcher is expected to lose in transition.
Japanese baseballs are not smaller than MLB balls, though this may come as a surprise to some Americans who think Japanese people, with their small hands, simply are not capable of holding an American baseball with one hand.
Nevermind. In 2011, NPB introduced a new ball virtually identical to the MLB version:
http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201106240282.html
No they didn’t introduce a new ball. They decided to use one official ball instead of their old system of each team providing the balls. However all the balls had to be regulation size, which was always the same as MLB.
It’s a Japanese Maple leaf! Idiots! It says “I will survive” did they think it was Bee Gees tee? Jesus H.
Hi. I love Darvish and I understand that this is a comparative piece, but it’s worth mentioning that his -FIP is largely composed of the five, yes 5, home runs he gave up in the 232 inn he pitched last season. I’m inclined to believe that this is nearly impossible even for him in the MLB.
That may have something to do with the “optimistic” projections having him double his ERA when he moves to MLB. Everyone know’s he is going to give up more home runs and walks. The question to be answered is how many more (as well as how many fewer K’s, and if you’re not a Fangraphs Zombie, how more batted ball hits).
The fact that he played in a clone of the astrodome probably helped him some. I guess it’s not exactly the same. The Sapporo Dome also has 20 foot high walls all the way around. I bet all his home runs came on the road or were inside the park.
Did you have to add the HAHAHAHA part?
It’s going to be fun to watch him get whiplash at TBaATXUSA
Get it? Because it’s impossible to pitch well and not give up home runs in Arlington!
1. So which one of those bars in the 2006 graph is the 2006 edition of Darvish?
2. Whose bar is that to the left of Matsuzaka’s?
1. Ha! I didn’t even realize Darvish was in that graph — partly because his name was translate “Yes Darvish.” Anyway, his FIP- that year was 108, so he’s the first bar after a row of about 5 bars at 107.
2. Kazumi Saito.
Thanks. I suspect it takes a fair bit of work to compute FIP-‘s from the available, to-be-translated NPB data. 2006 looks to be about the last mortal season that Darvish had. Without doing the math, his FIP- looks to have been hovering between the mid 60s and mid 80s since then until last year’s 47. From a sample size perspective, Matsusaka’s average FIP- over his last 5 years in NPB is probably about 20 points higher than Darvish’s over his last 5 years.
The Guy is like Ichiro in Japan, and has been since he was 20. The spotlight he’s going to be under here will probably be less than he’s used to after the first few starts. I’m fairly positive he had no clue about the MJ leaf. The Japanese maple leaf is virtually identical and is a common symbol in Japan. Plus, when you’re on a transPacific flight, wearing a suit and tie is ridiculous.
Unlike DIce-K, the guy is a fitness freak and isn’t going to show up overweight. If he did Nolan would go Robin Ventua on his ass. Also unlike Dice-K, Yu is a much better pitcher.
FInally, I don’t hink it’s humanly possible to put up the nearly impossible #s he did, especially at his age, unless he has a level of mental discipline that dwarfs nearly everyone. Athetecism and talent isn’t enough to do what he did in Japan. Eye of the tiger, baby!
“…bless his little heart.” That’s a little racist, isn’t it? Unless Daisuke actually has a smaller than average heart. Dude’s Japanese but he’s also six feet tall.
Oh geez, it’s just a phrase. Every heart is little compared to a dozen other organs.
Well, the phrase is “bless his heart.” Strange that the diminutive “little” just happens to be inserted for a Japanese player.
I’m from the south. I’ve heard “little heart” more than just “heart,” so please don’t assume I was attempting make a statement about a Japanese fellow who happens to be about a half foot taller than me.
How many teams posted bids for Darvish? Clearly there was some interest in him….
Here is a great quote from his wiki page, apparently sabermetrics hasn’t quite caught on in Japan…
“Despite his accomplishments, Darvish was not recognized with the best pitcher in Japan honor, the Sawamura Award. Three of the five-member committee voted to recognize Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles right-hander Masahiro Tanaka. Selection committee chief Masayuki Dobashi explained, “ERA is the best stat to evaluate pitchers … Tanaka’s ERA was a little better than that of Darvish. Tanaka also had more complete games than Darvish.”[
Yeah, everything I hear from NPB-maven Patrick Newman indicates they are not even old school, they’re Feudal School.
I’m still having a tough time deciding which team to root for, so the first team that goes saber wins my heart.
I own the first pick in my keeper league. We keep 10, so the other guys at the top will be plaers like Hunter Pence, Shaun Marcum and Pablo Sandoval.
I’m desperate for pitching after dealing Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez for hitting late last year.
I pretty much have to take Yu, right?
If your other choices are the likes of Marcum, then yes, Darvish — at age 25 — is definitely your best bet.
How did I know this was gonna be a Bradley Woodrum post just by looking at the title?
Can you do the same FIP- chart for say the last 4-5 years, collectively?
Isn’t FIP kind of a dumb stat to use for the Nippon League? The general assumption is that they don’t try to hit home runs, they try to “ABC” you to death. They try to hit oppo, find the gaps, etc.
What you should really do is look at HOW he’s being successful. Is he blowing it by guys? Are they missing breaking pitches? What? Then look at that, find a similar pitch in the big leagues, and see how they hit it. I’m gussing there is a bat speed difference between the Nippon League and MLB.
Onr glaring problem. NO JAPANESE PITCHER HAD EVER LEARNED TO THROW INSIDE. Including Darvish.
yu is a top 3 rounder in fantasy but u can get him in rd 4 or 5, meaning if he lives up to the billing you got a good chance to win a league if ur drafting right w. the other guys on ur squad.
Check out how much we ? Yu too! http://www.iloveyushirts.com Show your love for the latest Texas Ranger superstar!