The Phillies signed Juan Pierre today to a Minor League deal. While the Phillies were wise to take on no risk with the deal, signing Pierre simultaneously makes little sense for the Philes as well as puts another obstacle in the path of Domonic Brown.

In announcing the deal, Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. said that Pierre could serve a valuable speed role for the Phils, who didn’t have much speed on their bench last season. What this generally means is that Pierre would serve as a pinch runner. Unfortunately, Pierre, who has long been one of the least efficient basestealers in the game, is ill-equipped to be a late-game weapon.

Last season, Pierre was caught stealing more than any player in the game, and that wasn’t a fluke — over the past three years, Pierre has been caught stealing nine more times than any other player in the game. And while some of that is a function of the fact that he runs so frequently — only Michael Bourn attempted more steals over the same three-year period — it’s not all of it. Of the 160 players who have attempted at least 25 steals over the past three seasons, Pierre’s 72.7% success rate ranks 95th.

That’s not to say that Pierre isn’t a good base runner. While he may be a bit overaggressive in trying to steal bases, he is that way for a reason — he’s fast. Pierre has a positive BsR in every season for which it has been measured, and over the past three seasons, his 14.4 BsR is third-best in the game. That’s all well and good, but it’s also likely a quality that either has little value or is redundant on the current Phillies roster, take your pick. Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino certainly don’t need to be pinch run for. Laynce Nix isn’t a burner, but he has generated neutral or positive BsR scores throughout his career.

Looking at the infield, the story is much the same. Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins aren’t going to get taken out of the lineup for a runner, and while Placido Polanco, Ty Wigginton or Jim Thome aren’t the fleetest of foot, you would need to get Michael Martinez or John Mayberry into the game afterwards if you bring in Pierre to run for them. Catchers are always easy to run for, but managers are also usually loathe to leave themselves without a catcher on the bench. There will be opportunities to pinch hit for the pitcher, but are you really going to pinch hit Pierre? Jim Thome will be the primary pinch hitter du jour against right-handers, and while Pierre has hit better against lefties the past four years, Wigginton is still probably the better option. Again, Thome and Wigginton aren’t the swiftest duo in the Majors, but pinch hitting one of them and then inserting Pierre as a pinch runner if they reach burns two of the team’s four bench players who aren’t the backup catcher in one move. That doesn’t leave much wiggle room, especially for a National League team.

Adding Pierre also makes little sense because the Phillies roster was already pretty chockfull. Assuming that there are 13 slots for position players, the Phillies lineup looks as such:

Catchers: Carlos Ruiz, Brian Schneider
Infielders: Ryan Howard (DL), Michael Martinez, Placido Polanco, Jimmy Rollins, Jim Thome, Chase Utley, Ty Wigginton
Outfielders: John Mayberry, Laynce Nix, Hunter Pence, Juan Pierre, Shane Victorino

This is where the Phils get a little extra credit for keeping the deal to a Minor League one. If you were counting, you noticed 14 names. In other words, when Howard returns — which could happen as early as May — someone on the above list will need to go. It seems like a good bet that that person would be Pierre.

Of course, the real crime here is that one of the 14 names you didn’t read on the above list was Brown’s. With Raul Ibanez leaving for … something, it was thought that Brown would get a chance to garner substantially more playing time. In his time in the Majors last year, Brown put up league-average offensive numbers. He put up the same wOBA as did Nix, and bested Pierre by 28 points. Perhaps that’s not much to hang your hat on — after all, it was only 210 plate appearances — but you have to start somewhere. Brown posted his best BB% and K% since A ball, the latter of which was likely a concern after his 2010 cup of coffee. He didn’t go all Brett Lawrie on National League pitchers, but he wasn’t atrocious either. He deserved a shot at more Major League playing time, but now if he hopes to get any, he will have to get hot in March. And that still might not be enough.

Perhaps the most telling thing about Pierre’s signing is that the Phillies may only need him for the first six weeks of the season. Given the choice between keeping Brown on the Major League roster and giving him a chance to work his way into regular playing time while Howard is out or signing someone else, the Phils chose to sign someone else. Even if Pierre stays with the Phils for the duration of the season, his value is limited due to the fact that he is not an efficient base stealer, as well as the fact that the Phillies have few players for whom he can pinch run without Charlie Manuel having to burn a second player after the inning ends. Finally, bringing in Pierrer also throws another road block onto Brown’s already cluttered road to regular playing time. Like many of the Phillies’ moves this offseason, signing Pierre probably doesn’t make the Phillies any worse, but it is also unlikely to make them any better.

Remember when the robot in Terminator refuses to die? The lady, like, punches him, shoots him, squishes him in a pressing machine, but he’s still reaching out one mechanical claw, ever thrilled at the prospect of pre-killing John Conner? Well, in this analogy, Jamie Moyer is Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The Colorado Rockies have agreed to terms with LHP Jamie Moyer and are a physical away from one of the more intriguing displays in Triple-A. Moyer is not only coming back from Tommy John surgery, something that derails even young pitchers, but he is also recovering from The Beatles breakup. Which happened when he was 8 years old.

Get it?

He’s old.

This is the joke they were making about Moyer six years ago.

What does this mean? Well: (1) Jamie Moyer is pretty much my idol. And (2) he has a long — nay, looooooong — shot at making the big leagues in 2012. Let’s take a look at what Moyer could possibly have left in the tank.

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When Johnny says his last lines in “The Outsiders” — “Stay gold, Ponyboy. Stay gold.” — there’s more than a slight touch of mortality in the moment. There might even be outright pessimism about the directive. After all, the Robert Frost poem he’s referencing finishes: “Nothing gold can stay.”

Turns out Johnny and Frost know a little something about pitchers and strikeout rates. Thanks to the inestimable Jeff Zimmerman, we have strikeout aging curves for both starters and relievers. As dawn turns to day, it seems, pitchers also lose their gold.

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For more on the Venezuelan Winter League, check out Carson Cistulli’s final SCOUT leaderboards for said league.

With the MLB in the middle of its winter hiatus, we of the baseball-addicted must roll our listful eyes towards the winter leagues. One such league is the wildly popular Venezuelan Winter League. It is hard to say what exact level the Venezuelan league constitutes — but it certainly has a few veterans of both leagues, as well as a few MLB guys (though usually nobody who is already well established in the majors).

This year, Chicago Cubs fans have had the delight of being able to keep tabs on their… exciting… pitcher Carlos Zambrano. Big-Z — perhaps in an effort to ingratiate himself with the new Cubs regime, perhaps in a move to showcase his talents to the league — has now pitched five games for the Caribes de Anzoategui, but according to some recent rumors, Zambrano may be calling it a winter.

And maybe he should.
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The Philadelphia Phillies might not have a strong farm system, but it certainly is an intriguing one. Considering how much talent the organization had to give up to acquire the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee (the first time), Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence, that’s an impressive accomplishment. And its perhaps even more impressive when you figure in the number of high draft picks the club has had to deal away to assemble its impact ensemble. Still, all those trades have definitely hurt this organization’s minor-league depth:

1. Trevor May, RHP
BORN: Sept. 23, 1989
EXPERIENCE: Four seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 fourth round, Washington HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Fifth

SCOUTING REPORT: May is a big, strong pitcher with a solid repertoire that includes a 90mph to 95 mph fastball. He also has a potentially plus curveball, a changeup and a new-found slider. His delivery gets out of whack at times, which causes his command to suffer. As a player from a cold-weather state, he’s always been a little behind prospects from sunny weather locales, such as California, Arizona and Florida — but he’s definitely playing catch-up now.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Brody Colvin took a step back in 2011, and Jarred Cosart was traded to Houston, so May’s breakout season was more than welcomed by the organization. The right-hander pitched a career high 144.1 innings and had a 2.69 FIP. He maintained an outstanding strikeout rate (12.10 K/9), but his control remained inconsistent (4.05 BB/9) — and that is the biggest thing preventing him from becoming an elite pitcher.

YEAR AHEAD: May will move up to double-A in 2012 and he isn’t far from contributing to the big-league team. Still, he needs to polish his secondary pitches and improve his control.

CAREER OUTLOOK: May has the potential to develop into a No. 2 starter – especially if he commands his fastball at the major-league level. He has the frame to become an innings-eater.

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After signing four consecutive minor-league contracts, outfielder Laynce Nix agreed to a two-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Nix can be a useful piece for an organization that is willing to acknowledge his faults and limit him to a part-time player. As a left-hander, he has always struggled against left-handed pitching, though he has always showed plus-power against right-handers. He owns a career .198 ISO and .317 wOBA against righties and only a .090 ISO and .227 wOBA when facing southpaws.

Philadelphia wrestled the 31-year-old away from the Nationals by offering a multi-year offer. Nix likely also saw an opportunity to match playing time with postseason aspirations. The early speculation is that he will be expected to platoon in left field with John Mayberry Jr., and he could even see some time at first base early in the year with Ryan Howard on the disabled list.

When fashioning a platoon, especially in the outfield at a premium offensive position, the key is to match two players together with a similar weakness — just at opposite sides of the plate. Nix and Mayberry do not fit that mold. Take a look at the 2011 lefty-righty splits:

The isolated power is just a touch lower for Mayberry against right-handers than it is for Nix, but the wOBA is higher for Mayberry by eight points. That stems from better plate discipline as a whole. In 2011, Mayberry had a 29.9% O-Swing and 10.0% SwStr compared to a 42.8% O-Swing and 12.0% SwStr for Nix.

So, Mayberry performed better against righties in 2011 than did Nix, and the 27-year-old Mayberry also displays better plate discipline across the board. We’re running out of reasons why this platoon would make sense. Perhaps the defense Nix provides is better than Mayberry’s, which would push the slightly worse numbers against righties over the top and justify significant playing time over Mayberry.

UZR did not like Nix in 2011 — rating him a below-average -3.6 UZR in left field — despite the fact that he has traditionally been a very good outfielder throughout his career. Mayberry, on the other hand, was rated an above-average +2.6 UZR in left field throughout the 2011 season. A one-year sample size for UZR should not necessarily be considered gospel when rating a player’s defensive abilities, but what the numbers do suggest, however, is that Nix is not a significantly better defender than Mayberry — which, yet again, does not improve the argument for a platoon in left field.

With the roster as currently constructed, Laynce Nix should be a useful bench bat and fourth outfielder, who can adequately handle all three outfield positions with the glove. Mayberry should be given the chance to win the everyday job in left field, and some combination of Ty Wigginton, Nix, and perhaps even Jim Thome can cover the void at first base during the absence of Ryan Howard.

The Laynce Nix signing does signify the end of the Raul Ibanez era in Philadelphia. It’s tough to believe the veteran will receive a big league offer this winter as anything other than a bench bat with power, as he was worth -1.3 WAR (-18.9 runs defensively) in 2011.

The monetary value of the two-year contract given to Nix is not yet available, but one has to imagine the guaranteed amount is somewhat negligible. Philadelphia should not need overpay for a fourth outfielder, nor should they consider platooning Nix in left field with John Mayberry Jr. The numbers that necessitate a platoon are simply not there.

The Phillies made the first major splash of the offseason by signing Jonathan Papelbon to a borderline absurd four-year, $50 million contract. The market was clearly flush with closers, or relievers capable of closing, and the Phillies paid a max type of contract for a 65-inning pitcher. Financial wiggle room was a concern before the move and the opportunity costs both realized and hypothetical — bidding farewell to homegrown talent Ryan Madson and perhaps prohibiting themselves from making more important moves elsewhere, respectively — suggested it was a poor move.

However, even without the Phillies context, signing any closer for that much money, over that many guaranteed years, is foolish. Relief pitchers are statistically fickle and don’t really offer a decreased level of injury risk. Over such a small sample of innings, it’s easy to temporarily mask true talent levels, especially when considering the general difficulty in evaluating relievers. By signing Papelbon to such a large deal that early in the offseason, the Phillies explicitly acknowledged their view that he was, by far, the best available option, and one worth spending big bucks on.

In this particular offseason, with so many viable closing options available, nobody is worth spending much money on since the differences between the closers are mostly nominal. The fact that so few closers were signed early in the offseason — besides Papelbon, both Joe Nathan and Jonathan Broxton signed lower-risk deals — indicates that teams are growing wary of doling out big bucks to pitchers occupying an overstated role. In the context of the current offseason, many teams are waiting to sign a closer, allowing the market to settle in order to ink one to a team-friendly deal.

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Justin Verlander won the Cy Young and the MVP award after a tremendous 2011 season. Roy Halladay — who posted similar numbers — went home with nothing. Whether or not you agreed with Verlander’s selection as the MVP, he was considered a strong candidate for the award. Halladay couldn’t even beat out Clayton Kershaw for the NL Cy Young, making his chances to win the NL MVP miniscule at best. A glance at the award results might lead one to conclude that Verlander was a vastly superior pitcher last season. The truth is, Halladay was just as good — if not better.

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Obviously it is the horse talking.

News broke Monday night that the Texas Rangers signed once-great, maybe even possibly still-great, reliever Joe Nathan to a 2-year contract for $7M a year, plus a $9M option.

FUN FACT: Over the last two years, Joe Nathan and I have the exact same WAR — we both have been worth precisely 0.0 wins! Which makes us ask: Why did the Rangers choose Nathan?

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Clayton Kershaw received 27 of the 32 first place votes in the 2011 NL Cy Young Award balloting en route to his first major league award. He beat out all three of the Phillies horses — Roy Halladay finished second, with Cliff Lee third and Cole Hamels fifth — and Ian Kennedy to officially go down in the book as the best the National League had to offer this past season. But that isn’t necessarily true, and his case isn’t as shut and dry as all those first place votes make it seem.

It’s plausible to suggest that Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee were, at worst, Kershaw’s equals, and more likely than that his superiors. His winning the award is in no way a mockery, like it was when Bartolo Colon beat Johan in 2005, but it does feel like somewhat of a step back in the voting process. After Felix Hernandez won his award it sure seemed the voting body grasped that team context is important when evaluating players.

His wins total wasn’t up to par with traditional candidates, but voters understood that the Mariners offense was out of Felix’s control. He wasn’t penalized for perceived poor performance in a common performance indicator.

In the case of Kershaw v. Halladay v. Lee, a similar understanding wasn’t extended to strength of schedule and park effects. Kershaw deserves hearty congratulations, but his Cy Young Award win again illustrates the importance and utility of normalizing numbers. When adjusted numbers enter the fray, Lee emerges as a very viable candidate. Halladay steps forward as the best pitcher in the league, and by a long-shot. In our staff awards ballot, I did vote for Kershaw, but my stance has since changed. No matter how one chooses to slice it — unless they like slicing “it” incorrectly — Halladay was the best pitcher in the senior circuit this past season.

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